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電気自動車 (EV) 用バッテリーセル、モジュール、およびバッテリーパックの最近の技術的課題およびEVの世界市場予測

EV Cell, Module & Pack's Recent Technical Issues and EV Market Forecast

発行 SNE Research 商品コード 344387
出版日 ページ情報 英文 261 Pages
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電気自動車 (EV) 用バッテリーセル、モジュール、およびバッテリーパックの最近の技術的課題およびEVの世界市場予測 EV Cell, Module & Pack's Recent Technical Issues and EV Market Forecast
出版日: 2015年10月13日 ページ情報: 英文 261 Pages
概要

EV (電気自動車) の世界市場ではHEV、PHEV、およびBEVの各タイプを合わせて台数が既に200万台を超えており、今後も全体的に急速な伸びを見せて、2020年までの年毎の平均成長率は28%になると予測されます。2020年にはEVの台数は850万台に達する見込みで、こういった状況を背景にEV用二次電池市場も急速に拡大、発展を続けています。

当レポートでは、EVバッテリーの世界市場を精査しており、EVおよびEVバッテリー市場の現況、EVバッテリーが抱える課題、EVバッテリーの将来に向けたソリューション、EVバッテリーの評価方法、各国のEVバッテリーメーカーでの研究開発状況等を詳細に分析し、2020年までの市場予測を提供しています。

第1章 序論

  • 過去のEVビジネス失敗の原因
  • EV時代の到来
  • バッテリー技術の進歩

第2章 EVバッテリーの現況

  • 市場におけるEVおよびEVバッテリー
    • EV
    • EVバッテリー
  • 開発ロードマップに基づくバッテリーの課題
    • 課題1) エネルギー密度
    • 課題2) 価格
    • 課題3) 安全性
    • 課題4) 低温時性能
    • 課題5) 長期信頼性

第3章 EVバッテリーのソリューション

  • エネルギー密度
    • 陽極材
    • 陰極材
    • その他の材料
  • バッテリータイプ
    • 角柱状リチウムイオンバッテリー
    • リチウムポリマーバッテリー
  • バッテリー価格
    • EVバッテリー原材料コスト見積
    • EVバッテリー製造コスト見積
    • EVバッテリーパック価格見積
  • バッテリーの安全性
  • EVバッテリーパックの構造
  • バッテリーの熱制御
    • バッテリーの発熱モデル
    • 熱制御のためのバッテリー形状選定
    • 空冷温度管理システムを用いたバッテリーパック
    • 水冷温度管理システムを用いたバッテリーパック
  • バッテリー管理システム
    • セルバランス機能、すなわち等化機能
    • 電流および電圧モニター
  • 未来のEV用新型バッテリー
    • リチウム空気電池
    • リチウム硫黄電池
    • 全固体電池

第4章 EV製造メーカーにおける評価方法

  • 主な自動車メーカーにおける新技術開発プロセス
    • EVバッテリーの出力測定方法
    • HPPCによる出力予測方法
    • J-Pulseによる出力予測方法
  • 自動車メーカーのバッテリー評価項目および評価方法
    • 自動車メーカーのバッテリー性能評価方法
    • 自動車メーカーのバッテリー耐久性評価方法

第5章 EVバッテリー研究開発現況

  • 韓国
  • 日本
  • 米国
  • その他

第6章 EVバッテリー製造企業の技術開発およびビジネス動向

  • 韓国
  • 日本
  • 米国
  • 中国
  • その他

第7章 EVの需要予測

  • 技術別に見たEVの市場予測 (2011〜2020年)
    • 技術方式別 (HEV/PHEV/EV) に見たEV市場予測
  • 主要諸国のEV市場予測 (2011〜2020年)
    • 米国
    • 日本
    • 欧州
    • 中国
    • 韓国

第8章 EVバッテリーの需要予測

  • EVバッテリー市場予測 (2011〜2020年)
    • 技術方式別 (HEV/PHEV/EV) に見たバッテリー市場予測
    • タイプ別 (Cy/Pr/Po) に見たバッテリー市場予測
    • メーカー別に見たバッテリー市場予測
  • EVバッテリーの価格予測 (2011〜2020年)
    • バッテリーセル価格
    • バッテリーパック価格
目次

Due to depletion of fossil fuels and environmental regulations such as control of greenhouse gas emissions, the electric vehicle market is gradually expanding with the help of automobiles that are environmentally friendly compared to internal combustion automobiles and that have excellent accelerating performances. Secondary batteries that are used the most for EVs have changed from lead storage cells, Ni-MH cells, to Li-ion cells. Usage for Li-ion cells have already expanded to portable power units and also expanding to medium to large secondary batteries for EVs, and they are regarded as a battery that is the most widely used and with the most applicability. The market for EV secondary batteries is rapidly growing and since Korea is one of the leaders in the market, there are high expectations for domestic industry growth.

According to a Korean market research firm SNE Research, the global EV market volume has exceeded 2 million vehicles including all types like HEV, PHEV, and BEV, and is expected to exceed 8.5 million by 2020. Among different types of EVs, sales of PHEVs and BEVs especially are expected to grow 62.4% and 59.8% yearly on average respectively until 2020, and to lead the sales increase of all EVs. In contrast, sales of HEVs are expected to negatively grow -2% yearly on average. However, in total the EV market is expected to grow 28% yearly on average until 2020.

Currently the global EV market is led by American and Japanese producers, but recently the market is expanding due to aggressive EV developments of European and Chinese producers. The competition in the market is intensifying among American producers like GM, Ford, Chrysler, Tesla, Japanese producers like Toyota, Honda, Mitsubishi, Nissan, European producers like BMW, Damiler, VW, Renault, Volvo, and Chinese producers like BYD and SAIC. In the early phase of the EV market, producers that specialize in EVs like Tesla led the market, but since 2015 large automobile companies have been active in the market, and it is expected that they will gradually become major influencers in the market.

The most important issues in EV battery development are energy density, price, safety, performance in low temperature, and long term reliability. The EV battery development roadmap states that element technologies for battery performance increase are anode and cathode material, electrolyte material and energy storage technologies, and the roadmap also provides directions for technological developments comprehensively. Also, the roadmap has included mileage, battery weight, capacity, and price as indices for battery powered EVs and has been written so that the reader will be able to judge how battery technology development affects vehicle performance improvements. Further, it includes research plans for various next generation battery systems, energy density of which is expected to rapidly improve in medium to long term.

Since Li-ion batteries have energy density that is superior to that of existing secondary batteries and produce large output, they can be used for EVs and electric tools. Also, they can be charged quickly and maintain lifespan after a few hundred cycles. Because the lifespan can be increased to more than 10 years, they can be used for EVs and currently applied to HEVs and PHEVs in the market. Areas that need additional design considerations are cycle characteristics, safety, and insulation, and also weight reduction of components for energy density improvements. Furthermore, because large-sized batteries are used in very high currents of 100 to 300A compared to small batteries, structure and design of terminals suitable for high currents and welding process of foil that is the whole house and terminals should be considered as important factors. Designs that consider protection against heat from rapid charge and discharge were not considered for small batteries, but they are very important factors for medium to large batteries.

SNE Research reviewed the issues regarding the EV batteries, technically analyzed forms of each parts, prices, structures of EV cell module packs, and conducted market research including battery evaluation method of EV producers, research and development trends of major countries, and technological developments and businesses of battery producers. Through these, SNE Research analyzed demands and prices of EVs and EV batteries henceforth until 2020. Readers will be able to check current EV battery technologies and prices, and global EV sales and market prospects from this report.

Table of Contents

1. Introduction

  • 1.1 Cause of Past EV Failures
  • 1.2 Advent of the EV era
  • 1.3 Advancement of Battery Technologies

2. Current State of EV Batteries

  • 2.1. EVs and EV Batteries in the Market
    • 2.2.1. EVs
    • 2.2.2. EV Batteries
  • 2.2. Issues that come with Batteries According to the Roadmap
    • 2.2.1. Issue 1) Energy Density
    • 2.2.2. Issue 2) Price
    • 2.2.3. Issue 3) Safety
    • 2.2.4. Issue 4) Low Temperature Performance
    • 2.2.5. Issue 5) Long-term Reliability

3. EV Battery Solutions

  • 3.1. Energy Density
    • 3.1.1. Anode
    • 3.1.2. Cathode
    • 3.1.3. Other Materials
  • 3.2. Battery Types
    • 3.2.1. Prismatic Li-ion Battery
    • 3.2.2. Lithium Polymer Battery
  • 3.3. Battery Prices
    • 3.3.1. Estimates of EV Battery Raw Material Costs
    • 3.3.2. Estimates of EV Battery Manufacturing Process Costs
    • 3.3.3. Estimates of EV Battery Pack Prices
  • 3.4. Battery Safety
  • 3.5. Structure of EV Battery Packs
  • 3.6. Battery Heat Control
    • 3.6.1. Heating Model of Batteries
    • 3.6.2. Measures for Form Selection of Batteries for Heat Control
    • 3.6.3. Battery Packs that Use Air-Cooling Thermal Management System
    • 3.6.4 Battery Packs that Use Water-Cooling Thermal Management System
  • 3.7. Battery Management System
    • 3.7.1. Cell Balancing or Equalization Function
    • 3.7.2. Current and Voltage Monitoring
  • 3.8. New Batteries for Future Vehicles
    • 3.8.1. Lithium Air Battery
    • 3.8.2. Lithium Sulfur Battery
    • 3.8.3. All Solid State Battery

4. Evaluation Methods of EV Producers

  • 4.1. New Technology Development Processes of Major Automobile Manufacturers
    • 4.1.1. Output Measurement Method for EV Batteries
    • 4.1.2. Output Prediction Method through HPPC
    • 4.1.3. Output Prediction Method through J-Pulse
  • 4.2. Battery Evaluation Items and Methods of Automobile Manufacturers
    • 4.2.1. Battery Performance Evaluation Methods of Automobile Manufacturers
    • 4.2.2. Battery Durability Evaluation Methods of Automobile Manufacturers

5. Current State of EV Battery Research and Development

  • 5.1. Korea
  • 5.2. Japan
  • 5.3. United States
  • 5.4. Others

6. Trends of Technology Developments and Businesses of EV Battery Producers

  • 6.1. Korea
    • 6.1.1. LG Chemicals
    • 6.1.2. Samsung SDI
    • 6.1.3. SK Innovation
    • 6.1.4. Kokam
  • 6.2. Japan
    • 6.2.1. Sanyo
    • 6.2.2. Toshiba
    • 6.2.3. GS Yuasa
    • 6.2.4. Primearth EV Energy Co
    • 6.2.5. Hitachi Automotive System
    • 6.2.6. AESC
  • 6.3. United States
    • 6.3.1. Tesla
    • 6.3.2. EnerDel
    • 6.3.3. A123systems
    • 6.3.4. Litec
    • 6.3.5. Johnson Controls
    • 6.3.6. XALT Energy (former Dow Kokam)
    • 6.3.7. Boston Power
  • 6.4. China
    • 6.4.1. BYD
    • 6.4.2. Lishen
    • 6.4.3. China BAK Battery Inc
    • 6.4.4. ATL
  • 6.5 Others
    • 6.5.1. Saft
    • 6.5.2. Gaia
    • 6.5.3. Electrovaya
    • 6.5.4. Magna
    • 6.5.5. EIG
    • 6.5.6. Seeo
    • 6.5.7. Valence Technology
    • 6.5.8. Altair Nanotechnologies
    • 6.5.9. GP Batteries International Ltd
    • 6.5.10. International Battery
    • 6.5.11. K2 Energy
    • 6.5.12. Maxell Technologies

7. Demand Forecast of EVs

  • 7.1. Market Forecast of EVs by Technologies (2011~2020)
    • 7.1.1. Market Forecast by Technologies (HEV/PHEV/EV)
    • 7.1.2. EV Market Forecast by Technologies
  • 7.2. Forecasts of EV Markets (2011~2020)
    • 7.2.1. United States
    • 7.2.2. Japan
    • 7.2.3. Europe
    • 7.2.4. China
    • 7.2.5. Korea

8. Demand Forecasts of EV Batteries

  • 8.1. Forecast of EV Battery Market (2011~2020)
    • 8.1.1. Forecast of Battery Market by Technologies (HEV/PHEV/EV)
    • 8.1.2. Forecast of Battery Market by Types (Cy/Pr/Po)
    • 8.1.3. Forecast of Battery Market by Producers
  • 8.2. Forecast of EV Battery Prices (2011~2020)
    • 8.2.1. Prices of Battery Cells
    • 8.2.2. Prices of Battery Packs
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