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中国の防衛産業の将来性:市場の誘因性、競争環境、将来予測

Future of the Chinese Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2022

発行 Strategic Defence Intelligence 商品コード 264426
出版日 ページ情報 英文 117 Pages
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中国の防衛産業の将来性:市場の誘因性、競争環境、将来予測 Future of the Chinese Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2022
出版日: 2017年12月15日 ページ情報: 英文 117 Pages
概要

当レポートでは、中国の防衛産業への参入機会に関する詳細な市場分析・予測を実施し、今後の防衛予算の予測 (今後5年間分) や、防衛活動・予算の詳細動向、防衛輸出・輸入の動向、新規に成長が期待される部門、具体的な市場参入戦略、主要国内企業のプロファイル (概観、製品/サービス、近年の経営戦略と動向、戦略的提携、財務分析)、中国経済全体の概況などの情報を盛り込んでお届けします。

第1章 イントロダクション

第2章 エグゼクティブ・サマリー

第3章 市場の誘因性と新たな機会

  • 防衛市場の規模と予測
  • 防衛費分配の分析
  • 国土安全保障市場の規模と予測
  • 世界の主な市場との比較
  • 市場機会:主な傾向と成長促進要因
    • 戦闘機・多目的機
    • インフラ整備
    • 地対空ミサイル
    • 多目的ヘリコプター
    • 輸送機
    • 駆逐艦

第4章 防衛調達市場のダイナミクス

  • 輸入市場のダイナミクス
  • 輸出市場のダイナミクス

第5章 産業のダイナミクス

  • ファイブフォース分析
    • サプライヤーの交渉力:高
    • バイヤーの購買力:中
    • 参入障壁:高
    • 同業者との競合:低
    • 代替製品の脅威:低

第6章 市場参入戦略

  • 市場規制
  • 市場参入経路
  • 主な課題

第7章 競争環境と戦略的考察

  • 競争環境概観
  • 主な中国企業
    • China North Industries Corporation
    • China Electronics Technology Group Corporation
    • Aviation Industry Corporation of China
    • China National Nuclear Corporation
    • China Xinshidai Company
    • China Nuclear Energy and Construction
    • China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation
    • China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation
    • China State Shipbuilding Corporation
    • China National Electronics Import and Export Corporation
    • China National Aero-Technology Import and Export Corporation

第8章 ビジネス環境とカントリーリスク

  • 経済実績
    • 1人当たりGDP、GDP総額
    • 総輸出額・総輸入額 (単位:人民元)
    • 為替レート (人民元/米ドル)
    • 上場企業の時価総額 (米ドル) と対GDP比
    • 製品輸出額・輸入額の対GDP比
    • サービス輸出額・輸入額の対GDP比
    • 海外直接投資 (FDI) 純額と対GDP比
  • 鉱物資源
    • 鉱業・製造業・電力業の生産額

第9章 付録

図表一覧

目次
Product Code: DF0455MR

Summary:

China is the second largest defense spender globally after the US. The country's large military budget is primarily driven by its robust economic growth and its desire to match-up with the US in terms of military capabilities. Additionally, China shares its borders with 14 countries, and is involved in several border disputes which increase the need to invest in the recruitment and maintenance of a large number of troops to prevent infiltration or other hostile acts. The Chinese defense budget grew at a CAGR of about 7.3% during 2013-2017, from around US$115 Billion in 2013 to about US$153.9 Billion in 2017.

Over the forecast period, the country's defense expenditure is expected to increase from over US$167 Billion in 2018 to around US$226.5 Billion in 2022, reflecting a CAGR of more than 7.8%. The country's focus on military modernization, building technical capabilities, and dealing with territorial conflicts, while at the same time contributing to various peacekeeping operations worldwide, will drive the defense budget over the forecast period.

China is the second largest military spender globally, with a cumulative spending of over US$687 Billion between 2013 and 2017. Disputes over borders and territories, participation in peacekeeping missions, and military modernization are expected to drive the country's future military expenditure, which is expected to grow at a CAGR of around 7.8% during 2018-2022. Meanwhile, the country's defense budget is projected to remain stable at an average of 1.3% of GDP over the forecast period, and per capita defense expenditure will increase from around US$110 in 2017 to more than US$158 by 2022.

The report "Future of the Chinese Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2022" offers detailed analysis of the Chinese defense industry with market size forecasts covering the next five years. This report will also analyze factors that influence demand for the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants.

In particular, this report provides the following -

  • The Chinese defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of the Chinese defense industry during 2018-2022, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the country's expenditure and modernization patterns.
  • Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget with respect to capital expenditure and revenue expenditure. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country.
  • Porter's Five Force analysis of the Chinese defense industry: analysis of the market characteristics by determining the bargaining power of suppliers, bargaining power of buyers, threat of substitution, intensity of rivalry, and barriers to entry.
  • Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the country's imports and exports over the last five years.
  • Market opportunities: details of the top five defense investment opportunities over the next 10 years.
  • Competitive landscape and strategic insights: analysis of the competitive landscape of the Chinese defense industry. It provides an overview of key players, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis.
  • Companies mentioned in this report: China North Industries Corporation (NORINCO), China Electronics Technology Group Corporation (CETC), Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC), China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC), China Nuclear Engineering and Construction Corporation (CNEC), China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation (CASIC), China State Shipbuilding Corporation (CSSC), and China National Electronics Import and Export Corporation (CEIEC)

Scope:

  • China is the second largest defense spender globally after the US. The country's large military budget is primarily driven by its robust economic growth and its desire to match-up with the US in terms of military capabilities. Additionally, China shares its borders with 14 countries, and is involved in several border disputes which increase the need to invest in the recruitment and maintenance of a large number of troops to prevent infiltration or other hostile acts. The Chinese defense budget grew at a CAGR of 7.33% during 2013-2017, from US$115.9 billion in 2013 to US$153.9 billion in 2017.
  • China's military modernization plans require a huge capital inflow and the government is expected to meet the requirements of these programs over the forecast period. The country's defense capital expenditure increased from US$37.9 billion in 2013 to US$50.4 billion in 2017, growing at a CAGR of 7.37%.
  • Initiatives to combat organized crime and increase border security expenditure, and investments in infrastructure development, have driven the homeland security budget between 2013 and 2017. Over the forecast period, these factors are expected to continue to drive the country's defense expenditure.

Reasons to buy:

  • This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of the Chinese defense industry market trends for the coming five years
  • The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the expected investment pattern by the country during the forecast period
  • Detailed profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers with information about their products, alliances, recent contract wins, and financial analysis wherever available. This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector
  • A deep qualitative analysis of the Chinese defense industry covering sections including demand drivers, Porter's Five Forces Analysis, Key Trends and Growth Stimulators, and latest industry contracts

Table of Contents

1. Introduction

  • 1.1. What is this Report About?
  • 1.2. Definitions
  • 1.3. Summary Methodology
  • 1.4. About Strategic Defence Intelligence

2. Executive Summary

3. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities

  • 3.1. Current Market Scenario
    • 3.1.1. Primary Threat Perception
    • 3.1.2. Military Doctrine & Strategy
    • 3.1.3. Military Fleet Size
    • 3.1.4. Procurement Programs
    • 3.1.5. Social, Political and Economic Environment and Support for Defense Projects
    • 3.1.6. Political and Strategic Alliances
  • 3.2. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast
    • 3.2.1. Chinese defense expenditure is expected to increase at a CAGR of 7.81% over the forecast period
    • 3.2.2. Race over military supremacy, territorial disputes, peacekeeping missions, increasing tension with the US, and research and development are the main factors driving Chinese defense expenditure
    • 3.2.3. Chinese defense budget as a percentage of GDP is expected to remain stable
  • 3.3. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation
    • 3.3.1. China to allocate a high percentage share towards revenue expenditure over the forecast period
    • 3.3.2. Defense capital expenditure is expected to increase at a CAGR of 7.82% over the forecast period
    • 3.3.3. Per capita defense expenditure is expected to increase substantially during the forecast period
  • 3.4. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast
    • 3.4.1. Chinese homeland security is expected to reach US$38.4 billion by 2022
    • 3.4.2. Organized crime, terrorism threats, and cyber protection are expected to drive Chinese homeland security expenditure
    • 3.4.3. China falls under the "highly affected" terrorism category
    • 3.4.4. China is "highly affected" by terrorism as per the Terrorism Index
    • 3.4.5. China has a terrorism index score of 6.1
  • 3.5. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets
    • 3.5.1. China is anticipated to be the largest defense spender in Asia over the forecast period
    • 3.5.2. China has the second largest defense budget in the world
    • 3.5.3. China allocates a lower share of GDP to defense compared to the US and other Asian countries
  • 3.6. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators
    • 3.6.1. Missile defense systems
    • 3.6.2. Surface-to-air missiles
    • 3.6.3. Multirole aircraft
    • 3.6.4. Infrastructure construction
    • 3.6.5. Transport Aircraft

4. Defense Procurement Market Dynamics

  • 4.1. Import Market Dynamics
    • 4.1.1. China is expected to import fewer weapons over the forecast period
    • 4.1.2. Russia accounts for the majority of Chinese defense imports
    • 4.1.3. Aircraft, engines, and naval vessels are the most imported military hardware
  • 4.2. Export Market Dynamics
    • 4.2.1. Defense exports are expected to grow over the forecast period
    • 4.2.2. Pakistan emerged as the biggest importer of Chinese low-cost defense equipment exports
    • 4.2.3. Chinese aircraft and naval vessel exports expected to increase

5. Industry Dynamics

  • 5.1. Five Forces Analysis
    • 5.1.1. Bargaining Power of Supplier: High
    • 5.1.2. Bargaining Power of Buyer: Medium
    • 5.1.3. Barriers to Entry: High
    • 5.1.4. Intensity of Rivalry: Low
    • 5.1.5. Threat of Substitution: Low

6. Market Entry Strategy

  • 6.1. Market Regulation
    • 6.1.1. The Chinese military-industrial complex opens up to private sector participation
    • 6.1.2. Defense industry remains closed to foreign direct investment
  • 6.2. Market Entry Route
    • 6.2.1. Budget Process
    • 6.2.2. Procurement Policy and Process
    • 6.2.3. Foreign technology finds its way into the Chinese defense industry through civil-military integration
  • 6.3. Key Challenges
    • 6.3.1. Lack of competition and long production cycles continue to hamper the performance of the Chinese defense industry
    • 6.3.2. Arms embargo imposed by the US and EU

7. Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights

  • 7.1. Competitive Landscape Overview
    • 7.1.1. State-owned enterprises are the only major players in China's defense industry
    • 7.1.2. Foreign technology enters the Chinese defense market by supplying civil use products
  • 7.2. Key Domestic Companies
    • 7.2.1. China North Industries Corporation: Overview
    • 7.2.2. China North Industries Corporation: Products
    • 7.2.3. China North Industries Corporation: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives
    • 7.2.4. China North Industries Corporation: Alliances
    • 7.2.5. China North Industries Corporation: Recent Contract Wins
    • 7.2.6. China Electronics Technology Group Corporation: Overview
    • 7.2.7. China Electronics Technology Group Corporation: Products
    • 7.2.8. China Electronics Technology Group Corporation: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives
    • 7.2.9. China Electronics Technology Group Corporation: Alliances
    • 7.2.10. China Electronics Technology Group Corporation: Recent Contract Wins
    • 7.2.11. Aviation Industry Corporation of China: Overview
    • 7.2.12. Aviation Industry Corporation of China: Products
    • 7.2.13. Aviation Industry Corporation of China: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives
    • 7.2.14. Aviation Industry Corporation of China: Alliances
    • 7.2.15. Aviation Industry Corporation of China: Recent Contract Wins
    • 7.2.16. China National Nuclear Corporation: Overview
    • 7.2.17. China National Nuclear Corporation: Services
    • 7.2.18. China National Nuclear Corporation: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives
    • 7.2.19. China National Nuclear Corporation: Alliances
    • 7.2.20. China National Nuclear Corporation: Recent Contract Wins
    • 7.2.21. China Nuclear Engineering and Construction Corporation: Overview
    • 7.2.22. China Nuclear Engineering and Construction Corporation: Services
    • 7.2.23. China Nuclear Engineering and Construction Corporation: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives
    • 7.2.24. China Nuclear Engineering and Construction Corporation: Alliances
    • 7.2.25. China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation: Overview
    • 7.2.26. China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation: Products
    • 7.2.27. China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives
    • 7.2.28. China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation: Alliances
    • 7.2.29. China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation: Overview
    • 7.2.30. China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation: Products
    • 7.2.31. China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives
    • 7.2.32. China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation: Alliances
    • 7.2.33. China State Shipbuilding Corporation: Overview
    • 7.2.34. China State Shipbuilding Corporation: Products
    • 7.2.35. China State Shipbuilding Corporation: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives
    • 7.2.36. China State Shipbuilding Corporation: Alliances
    • 7.2.37. China State Shipbuilding Corporation: Recent Contract Wins
    • 7.2.38. China National Electronics Import and Export Corporation: Overview
    • 7.2.39. China National Electronics Import and Export Corporation: Products
    • 7.2.40. China National Aero-Technology Import and Export Corporation: Overview
    • 7.2.41. China National Aero-Technology Import and Export Corporation: Products
    • 7.2.42. China National Aero-Technology Import and Export Corporation: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives

8. Business Environment and Country Risk

  • 8.1. Economic Performance
    • 8.1.1. Gross Domestic Product per Capita
    • 8.1.2. Gross Domestic Product (Current US$ Billion)
    • 8.1.3. Exports of Goods and Services in LCU
    • 8.1.4. Imports of Goods and Services in LCU
    • 8.1.5. LCU per US$
    • 8.1.6. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (US$ Billion)
    • 8.1.7. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (Percentage of GDP)
    • 8.1.8. Goods Exports as a Percentage of GDP
    • 8.1.9. Goods Imports as a Percentage of GDP
    • 8.1.10. Services Imports as a Percentage of GDP
    • 8.1.11. Services Exports as a Percentage of GDP
    • 8.1.12. Net Foreign Direct Investment (BoP, current US$ Billion)
    • 8.1.13. Net FDI as a Percentage of GDP
    • 8.1.14. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output

9. Appendix

  • 9.1. About SDI
  • 9.2. Disclaimer

List of Tables

  • Table 1: China - Defense Modernization
  • Table 2: Chinese Army Strength
  • Table 3: Chinese Air Force Strength
  • Table 4: Chinese Navy Strength
  • Table 5: China - Ongoing Development and Procurement Programs
  • Table 6: China - Future Procurement Programs
  • Table 7: China Defense Expenditure (CYN Billion & US$ Billion), 2013-2022
  • Table 8: China GDP Growth and Defense Expenditure as a % of GDP Growth, 2013-2022
  • Table 9: China Defense Expenditure Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2013-2022
  • Table 10: China Defense Capital Expenditure (CYN Billion & US$ Billion), 2013-2022
  • Table 11: China Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2013-2022
  • Table 12: China Homeland Security Expenditure (CYN Billion & US$ Billion), 2013-2022
  • Table 13: Terrorism Index
  • Table 14: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2013-2017 vs. 2018-2022
  • Table 15: Chinese Budget Formation Timetable
  • Table 16: Competitive Landscape of the Chinese Defense Industry
  • Table 17: Chinese Military-Industrial Complex - Competitive Landscape
  • Table 18: China North Industries Corporation - Product Focus
  • Table 19: China North Industries Corporation - Alliances
  • Table 20: China North Industries Corporation - Recent Contract Wins
  • Table 21: China Electronics Technology Group Corporation - Product Focus
  • Table 22: China Electronics Technology Group Corporation - Alliances
  • Table 23: China Electronics Technology Group Corporation - Recent Contract Wins
  • Table 24: Aviation Industry Corporation of China - Product Focus
  • Table 25: Aviation Industry Corporation of China - Alliances
  • Table 26: Aviation Industry Corporation of China: Recent Contract Wins
  • Table 27: China National Nuclear Corporation - Services Focus
  • Table 28: China National Nuclear Corporation - Alliances
  • Table 29: China National Nuclear Corporation - Recent Contract Wins
  • Table 30: China Nuclear Engineering and Construction Corporation - Services Focus
  • Table 31: China Nuclear Engineering and Construction Corporation- Alliances
  • Table 32: China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation - Product Focus
  • Table 33: China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation - Alliances
  • Table 34: China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation - Product Focus
  • Table 35: China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation- Alliances
  • Table 36: China State Shipbuilding Corporation - Product Focus
  • Table 37: China State Shipbuilding Corporation - Alliances
  • Table 38: China State Shipbuilding Corporation: Recent Contract Wins
  • Table 39: China National Electronics Import and Export Corporation - Product Focus
  • Table 40: China National Aero-Technology Import and Export Corporation - Product Focus

List of Figures

  • Figure 1: China Defense Expenditure (CYN Billion), 2013-2022
  • Figure 2: China Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2013-2022
  • Figure 3: Chinese GDP Growth and Defense Expenditure as a % of GDP Growth, 2013-2022
  • Figure 4: Chinese Defense Expenditure Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2013-2022
  • Figure 5: China Defense Capital Expenditure (CYN Billion), 2013-2022
  • Figure 6: China Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2013-2022
  • Figure 7: China Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2013-2022
  • Figure 8: China Homeland Security Expenditure (CYN Billion), 2013-2022
  • Figure 9: China Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2013-2022
  • Figure 10: Terrorism Heat Map, 2017
  • Figure 11: Terrorism Index, 2017
  • Figure 12: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2013-2017 vs. 2018-2022
  • Figure 13: Defense Expenditure of the World's Largest Military Spenders (US$ Billion),
  • Figure 14: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2017
  • Figure 15: Chinese Missile Defense Systems Market Size (US$ Billion), 2017-2027
  • Figure 16: Chinese Surface-to-Air Missiles Market Size (US$ Billion), 2017-2027
  • Figure 17: Chinese Multirole Aircraft Market Size (US$ Billion), 2017-2027
  • Figure 18: Chinese Infrastructure Construction Market Size (US$ Billion), 2017-2027
  • Figure 19: Chinese Transport Aircraft Market Size (US$ Billion), 2017-2027
  • Figure 20: Chinese Defense Import Trend, 2012-2016 (TIV values)
  • Figure 21: Chinese Defense Imports by Country (%), 2012-2016
  • Figure 22: Chinese Defense Imports by Category (%), 2012-2016
  • Figure 23: Chinese Defense Exports Trend, 2012-2016 (TIV values)
  • Figure 24: Chinese Defense Exports by Country (%),2012-2016
  • Figure 25: Chinese Defense Exports by Category (%), 2012-2016
  • Figure 26: Industry Dynamics Porter's Five Forces Analysis
  • Figure 27: GDP per Capita, 2015-2025
  • Figure 28: GDP Current US$ (US$ Billion), 2015-2025
  • Figure 29: Exports of Goods and Services (LCU Billion), 2005-2014
  • Figure 30: Chinese Imports of Goods and Services (LCU Billion), 2005-2014
  • Figure 31: LCU per US$, 2015-2024
  • Figure 32: Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (US$ Billion), 2005-2012
  • Figure 33: Market Capitalization of Listed Companies as a % of GDP, 2005-2012
  • Figure 34: Goods Exports as a % of GDP, 2005-2013
  • Figure 35: Goods Imports as a % of GDP, 2005-2013
  • Figure 36: Services Imports as a % of GDP, 2005-2013
  • Figure 37: Services Exports as a % of GDP, 2005-2013
  • Figure 38: Net Foreign Direct Investment (BoP, current US$ Billion), 2005-2013
  • Figure 39: Net FDI as a % of GDP, 2005-2013
  • Figure 40: Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (LCU Billion), 2005-2014
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