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コバルト:2030年までの見通し (第16版)

Cobalt Outlook to 2030, 16th Edition

出版日: | 発行: Roskill Information Services | ページ情報: 英文 | 納期: 即日から翌営業日

価格
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コバルト:2030年までの見通し (第16版)
出版日: 2020年09月30日発行予定
発行: Roskill Information Services
ページ情報: 英文
納期: 即日から翌営業日
  • 全表示
  • 概要
  • 目次
概要

比較的逼迫した供給に対する、バッテリー部門からのコバルト原料の大きな需要に支えられ、コバルト金属価格は2016年の1ポンドあたり15米ドル未満から、2018年第2四半期の1ポンドあたり43米ドル超へと、10年間の最高値へ上昇しました。しかし、Katanga Miningなどの大手生産者からの供給などが増えたことで、市場は供給過剰となりました。その結果、価格は2018年半ばから後退し始め、2019年7月に3年間で最も低い1ポンドあたり13米ドルに下落しました。

当レポートでは、コバルトの産状、埋蔵量、世界分布などの分析に加え、国・企業別の生産量・消費量、エンドユーズ・エンドユーザー産業別製造・消費動向、輸出入動向、価格動向などについてまとめ、概略下記の構成でお届けいたします。

主な調査内容

  • バッテリーおよび航空宇宙分野におけるコバルト使用の展望
  • 今後10年間のコバルト需要
  • DRCコバルト分野の見通し
  • ASM部門がコバルトのバリューチェーンで果たす役割
  • DRC以外の新しい原料ソース
  • コバルト精鉱・リサイクルにおける主な変化
  • 国際的に取引されている各種コバルト形状
  • コバルトの採掘および精鉱の生産コスト
  • 2030年までの価格の展望
目次

The use of cobalt largely benefits from its hardness, anti-corrosion and high-temperature resistance characteristics, making it a competitive alloying metal for a variety of critical industrial applications. Since the first commercialisation of Li-ion batteries by Sony, it has been the development of consumer electronics that has underpinned cobalt demand. More recently, demand for cobalt chemicals in rechargeable battery cathodes has grown rapidly, driven by the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) in the context of collective governmental efforts to shift towards a low-carbon world.

Despite being a technology enabler for modern society, volatility has increasingly become a characteristic of the cobalt market owing to the complexities of its supply chain as well as those of the fast-moving battery and aerospace sectors. The high concentration of mining and refining production in two countries, the DRC and China, coupled with ESG concerns, represent potential long-term supply risks deeply embedded in the value chain. Short term, cobalt demand also faces headwinds from the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the battery and aerospace industries and trends towards thrifting of cobalt in Li-ion battery chemistries (in favour of higher nickel loadings).

Underpinned by the huge demand for cobalt feedstocks from the battery sector versus relatively tight supply, the cobalt metal price climbed from below US$15/lb in 2016 to a ten-year high of US$43/lb in Q2 2018. High metal prices and hydroxide payables in turn led to an enormous supply response from producers in the DRC, including artisanal producers. New supply from sizable producers like Katanga Mining, coupled with swing artisanal production, put the market into oversupply.

Consequently, prices started to retreat from mid-2018 and fell to a three-year low of $13/lb in July 2019. Despite some rebound in hydroxide payables and metal prices in late 2019 as Glencore mothballed Mutanda, the largest cobalt mine in the world, the cobalt metal price fell back to close to a 10-month low in June 2020. The premia for battery chemicals including cobalt sulphate and tetroxide also dwindled as a result of near-term uncertainty in the market following the COVID-19 pandemic.

Despite the short-term challenges, Roskill believes that the cobalt market is now entering a new phase of consolidation and rejuvenation. The medium-term demand for cobalt is expected to grow steadily once battery and aerospace sectors recover from recent setbacks with the assistance of supportive government subsidy/rescue schemes both in China and Europe. In addition, as market participants re-focus on supply chain security and sustainability, a more resilient and diverse cobalt value chain could be built. As such, cobalt should continue to play an essential role in the global transition towards clean energy technologies.

Roskill experts will answer your questions:

  • What is the outlook for cobalt use in battery and aerospace sectors?
  • How will cobalt demand perform in the next decade?
  • What is the outlook for the DRC cobalt sector?
  • What role does the ASM sector play in the cobalt value chain?
  • Where will new sources of feedstock come from outside the DRC?
  • Key changes in cobalt refining and recycling?
  • How different forms of cobalt are traded internationally?
  • What are the production costs of mining and refining cobalt?
  • How will prices perform to 2030?

Subscribe now and receive:

  • Detailed report with ten-year forecasts for demand, supply and prices
  • Access to the report via Roskill Interactive for up to 5 users
  • Access to Roskill specialists for key market queries
  • Option to download tables and graphs from the report
  • Quarterly updates to keep you up to speed on our latest view of the industry
  • A summary PowerPoint of key report findings
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