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錫の世界市場:2030年までの展望、第12版

Tin: Outlook to 2030, 12th Edition

発行 Roskill Information Services 商品コード 942691
出版日 ページ情報 英文
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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錫の世界市場:2030年までの展望、第12版 Tin: Outlook to 2030, 12th Edition
出版日: 2020年08月31日発行予定 ページ情報: 英文
概要

世界の錫消費量は、2015年以降一貫して伸び続けてきましたが、2019年には減少に転じています。この背景には、世界的な景気後退に伴う家電製品の生産量減少という要因があり、新型コロナウイルス感染症(COVID-19)のパンデミックによりこの状況は当面続くものの、5Gサービスの開始、スマートホーム機器やリチウムイオン(Li-ion)電池の進歩などにより、長期的には需要の着実な拡大が期待できます。錫需要のおよそ半分は、主に家電製品で用いられるはんだによるものですが、 2019年には携帯電話やスマートフォン、デスクトップコンピューターの生産量が落ち込んだことから拡大を続けてきた需要が一段落しました。2020年には、COVID-19の影響が世界経済全体に及び、家電製品の消費がさらに低迷する可能性が高まっていることから、この傾向は当面続くと見られています。精錬錫の70%以上は中国、インドネシア、マレーシアで生産されており、ペルー、ボリビア、ブラジルが14%を占めています。錫のサプライチェーンがこのように地理的に集中しているため、精製錫業界はCOVID-19に対する各国政府の対応に左右される傾向が強く、生産国のなかには生産量を削減したり、操業を停止したりしているところもあります。このため、2019年から2020年までの精錬錫の生産量は前年同期比で5%近く減少すると予想されます。 錫鉱山でも同様の事態が予想されており、生産量の50%以上が中国とインドネシアに、20%近くがペルー、ボリビア、ブラジルに集中していることから、パンデミックの影響はさらに大きくなると思われます。2019年には、過剰供給に伴う生産量の削減が行われ、2020年に入ってからもCOVID-19の影響が続いていますが、2021年以降、5Gサービスの拡大などに伴って需要は急速に回復する見通しです。

当レポートは、世界の錫市場を調査したもので、サプライチェーンの流れ、世界的な生産と消費の状況、生産コスト、国際的な取引、今後の展望、生産国と企業のプロファイル、消費動向などの情報を提供しています。

目次

  • 1.エグゼクティブサマリー
  • 2.サプライチェーンのフローチャート
  • 3.世界の生産状況
  • 4.生産コスト
  • 5.世界の消費状況
  • 6.国際的な取引
  • 7.価格
  • 8.展望
  • 9.背景
  • 10.持続可能性
  • 11.生産国のプロファイル
  • 12. 企業のプロファイル
  • 13.用途別の消費状況
目次

The recent stability in global tin demand came to an end in 2019, with world consumption falling for the first time since 2015. Demand is expected to remain subdued in the short term, driven by falling output of consumer electronics amid a contracting global economy, as result of the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic. The long-term outlook remains bright for global tin demand, driven by new applications such as 5G network rollout, smart home devices and advances in lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries.

Around half of all tin demand comes from solder applications and primarily the use of solder in consumer electronics. In 2019, consumption in consumer electronics suffered its first decrease in five years, driven by falling output of conventional mobile phones, smartphones, and desktop computers. This trend is set to continue in 2020 as the impacts of COVID-19 are felt across the global economy, leading to a further slump in consumption of consumer electronics. Demand for consumer electronics is closely tied to GDP growth and a "V-shaped" recovery to the global economy, as appears to be occurring in China, is set to lead to an increase in consumer electronics consumption in 2021.

Over 70% of refined tin production is attributed to China, Indonesia, and Malaysia, with 14% of remaining refined output accounted for by Peru, Bolivia, and Brazil. This geographical concentration of the tin supply chain has left the refined tin industry relatively exposed to government responses to COVID-19, with several of the major refined tin producers implementing output cuts and operation suspensions as a result of the pandemic. Year-on-year refined tin production, between 2019 and 2020, is expected to fall by nearly 5% as a result of these measures.

A similar picture is expected for mine supply of tin, with over 50% of mine output attributed to China and Indonesia and nearly 20% centred in Peru, Bolivia, and Brazil. Mine supply is set to be more severely affected by the pandemic , with a 10% y-on-y fall. Many suspensions related to COVID-19 were in place for between one to two months in H1 2020, with only Peruvian tin producer Minsur's suspension and Indonesian tin producer PT Timah's 20-30% output cut extending beyond two months.

Much of 2019 was marred by oversupply of refined tin, which led to several of the major tin producers, including PT Timah and China's Yunnan Tin, announcing output cuts in 2019. With demand for refined tin set to stutter in 2020, the cutbacks in response to COVID-19 will be vital in maintaining the health of the tin market. The supply/demand balance is set to move into a deficit in 2020, as drops to refined tin production will likely outweigh falls in demand.

Global tin demand is set to recover by 2021, buoyed by several new applications that are set to grow rapidly over the outlook period. The rollout of 5G networks is set to boost the telecommunications and other electronics sectors. Smartphones and conventional mobile phones account for nearly half of all consumer electronics and, with demand for conventional mobile phones rapidly falling, a boost to smartphone demand will be key to increased refined tin use in consumer electronics. The emergence of smart home devices over the last decade has boosted consumer electronics output; such devices accounted for only 2% of output in 2011, but rose to nearly 24% of the total in 2019.

The use of tin in Li-ion battery anodes is a sector that has shown some of the highest growth over the last decade, accounting for 0.4% of refined tin consumption in 2011 and growing to 3% in 2019. This trend is set to continue over the outlook period, with the degree of vehicle electrification expected to increase substantially over the coming decade. Advances in Li-ion battery materials indicate tin and tin compound materials offer increased stability to Li-ion batteries, which could become a major driver for increased used of tin in the sector.

Roskill experts will answer your questions:

  • What are the possible implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for the tin sector?
  • What are the likely supply developments across existing operations?
  • Where will new sources of mine production come from?
  • How is demand from the solder, chemicals, and battery sectors likely to develop in the next decade?
  • What is the outlook for the market balance and prices to 2030?

Subscribe now and receive:

  • Detailed report with ten-year forecasts for demand, supply and prices
  • Access to the report via Roskill Interactive for up to 5 users
  • Quarterly updates to keep you up to speed on our latest view of the industry
  • Access to Roskill specialists for key market queries
  • Option to download tables and graphs from the report
  • A summary PowerPoint of key report findings

Table of Contents

  • 1. Executive Summary
  • 2. Supply Chain Flowchart
  • 3. World Production
  • 4. Production Costs
  • 5. World Consumption
  • 6. International Trade
  • 7. Prices
  • 8. Outlook
  • 9. Background
  • 10. Sustainability
  • 11. Country Profiles
  • 12. Company Profiles
  • 13. Consumption by First Use