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リチウムの世界市場:2030年までの展望、第17版

Lithium: Outlook to 2030, 17th Edition

発行 Roskill Information Services 商品コード 942689
出版日 ページ情報 英文
納期: 即日から翌営業日
価格
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リチウムの世界市場:2030年までの展望、第17版 Lithium: Outlook to 2030, 17th Edition
出版日: 2020年07月31日発行予定 ページ情報: 英文
概要

炭酸リチウムと水酸化リチウムの価格は、2019年を通じて下降傾向を示し続け、炭酸リチウムの月間平均価格は1月から12月の間に36%低下しました。 2020年第1四半期には、炭酸リチウムの月間平均価格がトン当たり7,000ドルを下回り、リチウムイオンバッテリー業界の需要急増と将来的な供給の不透明感により2014年以降一貫して続いていた上昇基調は一段落しました。二次電池業界でのリチウム化合物の需要は、自動車用途での大型リチウムイオン電池の利用拡大に伴い、2010年代を通じて急速に成長しており、 2019年には、充電池がリチウム需要全体の54%を占めるという状況になりました。しかし2019年下半期には、EVの最大の市場である中国で販売台数が減少し、2020年上半期には、新型コロナウイルス感染症(COVID-19)のパンデミックに伴うロックダウンで世界的に販売台数が減少したことにより、リチウムの需要拡大も短期的に止まった状態になっています。とはいえ長期的なシナリオでは、今後10年間にわたってリチウム需要は着実に伸び続ける見通しであり、2030年まで毎年18%を超える成長率で拡大を続けると思われます。

当レポートは、世界のリチウム市場を調査したもので、サプライチェーンの流れ、世界の生産と消費の状況、生産コスト、国際的な取引、今後の展望、生産国と企業のプロファイル、消費動向などの情報を提供しています。

目次

  • 1.エグゼクティブサマリー
  • 2.サプライチェーンのフローチャート
  • 3.世界の生産状況
  • 4.生産コスト
  • 5.世界の消費状況
  • 6.国際的な取引
  • 7.価格
  • 8.展望
  • 9.背景
  • 10.持続可能性
  • 11.生産国のプロファイル
  • 12. 企業のプロファイル
  • 13.用途別の消費状況
目次

Price support

Lithium carbonate and hydroxide prices continued to display a downward trend throughout the majority of 2019, with monthly average lithium carbonate prices falling 36% between January and December. Trends in Q1 2020 have seen monthly average prices fall further to <US$7,000/t Li2CO3 for the first time since 2014, eroding price increases caused by forecast strong demand growth in the lithium-ion battery industry and uncertainty over future supply. Just as higher prices incentivised the rapid commissioning of production capacity throughout the supply chain, the slide in lithium prices has stressed almost all producers from mined products to refined compounds, causing output curtailments or suspensions.

The rise, and fall, of automotive batteries

Demand for lithium compounds from the rechargeable battery industry has displayed strong growth throughout the 2010s, with the increasing use of larger Li-ion batteries in automotive applications. In 2019, rechargeable batteries accounted for 54% of total lithium demand, almost entirely from Li-ion battery technologies. Though the rapid rise of hybrid and electric vehicle sales has brought attention to the requirement for lithium compounds, falling sales in H2 2019 in China, the largest market for EV's, and a global reduction in sales caused by lockdowns related to the COVID-19 pandemic in H1 2020 have put the short-term 'breaks' on lithium demand growth, impacting demand from both battery and industrial applications. Longer term scenarios continue to show strong growth for lithium demand over the coming decade however, with Roskill forecasting demand to exceed 1.0Mt LCE in 2027, with growth in excess of 18%py to 2030.

Carbonate versus hydroxide

As battery applications extend their dominance of lithium demand, the market is expected to become more focussed on providing products to meet specifications for automotive batteries. The shift towards high-nickel cathode materials, to increase battery energy density, is accelerating demand growth for lithium hydroxide, though its cost premium over lithium carbonate has made some consumers reluctant to switch feedstock. Lithium hydroxide is expected to become the dominant lithium chemistry consumed, though the balance between lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide remains highly dependent on lithium-ion cathode requirements.

Supply disruption

A correction in the oversupply of mined lithium products observed in 2018 and 2019 is on-going, with in excess of 30,000t LCE contained in spodumene concentrates estimated to be held in stockpiles at end-2019. Continued weak spodumene concentrate prices have caused lithium mineral operations to target reducing production costs through improved recovery, strip ratios and in-situ grades. While lower lithium prices have impacted sales revenue at lithium brine and mineral conversion facilities, production cost have remained largely stable in 2019. This has been largely down to major brine operations in Chile benefiting from price linked 'sliding-scale' royalty payments, and mineral conversion plants benefiting from lower raw material costs and improved feedstock quality.

Outlook

Longer term, further additions to lithium production capacity for mined and refined lithium products will be required to keep pace with demand growth, led by battery applications. Though schedule pipeline capacity appears sufficient to meet this demand growth, challenges and set-backs in developing, financing and commissioning lithium mining and refining operations are expected. Even major incumbent lithium producers are at risk of failing to meet production targets and expansion plans, highlighting the technical and financial hurdles involved with bringing sizable volumes of new capacity online. Roskill maintains the view that future refined lithium supply will remain tight, with a period of sustained supply deficit in the mid-2020s.

Roskill experts will answer your questions:

  • How are lithium prices impacting existing lithium producers?
  • Which companies are the major lithium producers?
  • Will the slowdown in EV sales impact long-term lithium demand growth?
  • Where will new sources of mined and refined lithium supply come from?
  • How will prices of key lithium products perform to 2030?
  • What is the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the lithium industry?
  • Which lithium products will be required by key end-use applications?
  • How important will secondary sources of lithium products become?

Subscribe now and receive:

  • Detailed report with ten-year forecasts for demand, supply and prices
  • Access to the report via Roskill Interactive for up to 5 users
  • Quarterly updates to keep you up to speed on our latest view of the industry
  • Access to Roskill specialists for key market queries
  • Option to download tables and graphs from the report
  • A summary PowerPoint of key report findings

Table of Contents

  • 1. Executive Summary
  • 2. Supply Chain Flowchart
  • 3. World Production
  • 4. Production Costs
  • 5. World Consumption
  • 6. International Trade
  • 7. Prices
  • 8. Outlook
  • 9. Background
  • 10. Sustainability
  • 11. Country Profiles
  • 12. Company Profiles
  • 13. Consumption by First Use