Roskill estimates that the iron and steel industry accounts for around 80% of primary molybdenum use, while superalloys, molybdenum metal and chemical uses account for the remaining 20% of primary molybdenum use.
Following a slight recovery in 2018, the molybdenum oxide price declined by 4.1% in 2019, as fears of a trade war between the USA and China hurt market sentiment. Demand dynamics swung from a three-year successive growth to a 2.4% decline in 2019, underpinned especially by markets in Europe and the USA, contributing to the price weakness over the year.
In light of the price and demand trends, molybdenum supply edged up by only 0.8% in 2019, a similar growth rate to 2018, but well down on 2017's 13.1% supply growth. China remained the world's largest producer of mined molybdenum in 2019, with production rising by 2% y-o-y, however production from Chile, the world's second-largest producer, dropped by 10%. Supply increased in the USA, Peru and Mexico, the next three-largest producers, which offset the drop from Chile.
Most molybdenum supply is produced as a by-product from the copper mining industry. In 2019, Roskill estimates that 73% was from by-product sources with only 27% of supply coming from primary molybdenum mines. These shares used to be far more evenly matched, but the industry responded to the last period of weak prices by curtailing capacity at primary mines, or by outright closures. By-product mines were far less affected by that downturn as these mines' primary focus is the copper market.
The molybdenum industry faces new challenges in 2020, as the world grapples with the COVID-19 pandemic. Various confinement measures imposed by governments across the world have resulted in a sharp slowdown in economic activity, while some mines have also been forced to operate at a reduced rate. The molybdenum oxide price has fallen by 18% y-o-y in Q1 2020 and some miners have responded by cutting back production at certain operations.
The scale of the impact that COVID-19 could have on the market is constantly evolving. Longer-term fundamentals should be supportive of the molybdenum market, however, with Roskill expecting output of steel and stainless steel to recover from 2021 onwards.
Molybdenum mine production, 2000-2019 (kt Mo)
Roskill experts will answer your questions:
- To what extent are molybdenum supply and demand likely to be affected by the COVID-19 pandemic?
- How quickly is the industry likely to recover from 2019's relative weakness and from what is likely to be a very weak 2020?
- Will the share of supply from by-product mines continue to rise?
- What is the outlook for the steel and stainless steel industry?
- How are prices likely to perform in the next decade?
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Table of Contents
1. Executive summary
- 1.1 Molybdenum supply
- 1.2 Molybdenum demand
- 1.3 Molybdenum trade
- 1.4 Molybdenum prices
- 1.5 Molybdenum outlook
2. Molybdenum flowchart
3. World production
- 3.1 Mine production of molybdenum
- 3.1.1 Production by country
- 3.2 Molybdenum mine capacity
- 3.3 Roasted concentrate capacity
- 3.4 Ferromolybdenum capacity
- 3.5 Molybdenum metal and alloys
- 3.6 Recycling and regeneration
4. Production Costs
- 4.1 Cost of production of molybdenum
- 4.2 Trends in production costs
- 4.3 Conclusion
5. World consumption
- 5.1 Consumption by region
- 5.2 Apparent consumption of molybdenum
- 5.3 Consumption by first use and industry
- 5.3.1 Consumption by first use
- 5.3.2 Consumption by industry
- 5.4 Molybdenum intensity of use
- 5.5 Scrap consumption
6. International trade
- 6.1 Trade in raw molybdenum concentrates
- 6.2 Trade in roasted molybdenum concentrates
- 6.3 Trade in molybdenum oxides and hydroxides
- 6.4 Trade in ferromolybdenum
- 6.5 Trade in molybdenum metal
- 6.6 Exchanges, warehouses and stocks
- 6.6.1 Exchanges and warehouses
- 6.6.2 Molybdenum stocks
- 6.6.2.1 LME stocks
- 6.6.2.2 China State Reserve Bureau stocks
7. Prices
- 7.1 Molybdenum price structure and premiums
- 7.2 Price correlations
- 7.3 Unroasted molybdenum concentrates
- 7.4 Technical molybdenum oxide
- 7.5 Ferromolybdenum
- 7.6 Molybdenum oxide and ferromolybdenum correlation
- 7.7 Molybdenum metal
- 7.8 Molybdenum chemicals
8. Outlook
- 8.1 COVID-19
- 8.2 Outlook for molybdenum demand
- 8.3 Outlook for molybdenum supply
- 8.3.1 Outlook for existing mines
- 8.3.2 Outlook for new capacity
- 8.4 Outlook for market balance
- 8.4.1 Market balance with existing mine supply only
- 8.4.2 Market balance with forecast supply
- 8.5 Molybdenum price outlook
- 8.5.1 Molybdenum oxide price outlook
- 8.5.2 Ferromolybdenum price outlook
9. Background
- 9.1 Properties, occurrence and reserves of molybdenum
- 9.1.1 Properties
- 9.1.2 Occurrence and mineralogy
- 9.1.3 Reserves and resources
- 9.1.4 Molybdenum mining and production processes
- 9.1.4.1 Technical grade molybdenum oxide (TMO)
- 9.1.4.2 Molybdenum Autoclave Process
- 9.1.4.3 Ferromolybdenum
- 9.1.4.4 Other commercial forms of molybdenum
- 9.1.5 Recycling of molybdenum
10. Sustainability
- 10.1 Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG)
- 10.1.1 Environmental
- 10.1.1.1 Energy consumption and emissions
- 10.1.1.2 IMO shipping regulations
- 10.1.1.3 Biodiversity and land use
- 10.1.2 Social
- 10.1.2.1 Artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM)
- 10.1.2.2 Human rights
- 10.1.3 Governance
- 10.1.3.1 Corruption
- 10.1.3.2 Ease of Doing Business (EoDB)
- 10.2 Critical raw materials
- 10.3 Responsible sourcing initiatives
- 10.3.1 Global Reporting Initiative
- 10.3.2 Responsible Mining Index
- 10.3.3 Initiative for Responsible Mining Assurance
11. Country profiles
- 11.1 Argentina
- 11.1.1 Resources and reserves
- 11.1.2 Mines and projects
- 11.2 Armenia
- 11.2.1 Resources and reserves
- 11.2.2 Mines and projects
- 11.2.3 Processing facilities
- 11.3 Australia
- 11.3.1 Resources and reserves
- 11.3.2 Mines and projects
- 11.4 Austria
- 11.4.1 Molybdenum processing facilities
- 11.5 Belgium
- 11.5.1 Molybdenum processing facilities
- 11.6 Brazil
- 11.6.1 Resources and reserves
- 11.7 Bulgaria
- 11.8 Canada
- 11.8.1 Resources and reserves
- 11.8.2 Mines and projects
- 11.8.3 Molybdenum processing facilities
- 11.9 Chile
- 11.9.1 Resources and reserves
- 11.9.2 Mines and projects
- 11.9.3 Molybdenum processing facilities
- 11.10 China
- 11.10.1 Molybdenum stocks in China
- 11.10.2 Mines and projects
- 11.10.3 Molybdenum processing facilities
- 11.11 Colombia
- 11.12 Ecuador
- 11.13 Estonia
- 11.14 France
- 11.15 Germany
- 11.15.1 Resources and reserves
- 11.15.2 Molybdenum processing facilities
- 11.16 India
- 11.16.1 Resources and reserves
- 11.16.2 Molybdenum processing facilities
- 11.17 Indonesia
- 11.18 Iran
- 11.18.1 Resources and reserves
- 11.18.2 Molybdenum mines and projects
- 11.18.3 Molybdenum processing facilities
- 11.19 Italy
- 11.20 Japan
- 11.20.1 Resources and reserves
- 11.20.2 Molybdenum processing facilities
- 11.21 Kazakhstan
- 11.21.1 Resources and reserves
- 11.21.2 Mines and projects
- 11.22 Mexico
- 11.22.1 Resources and reserves
- 11.22.2 Mines and projects
- 11.22.3 Molybdenum processing facilities
- 11.23 Mongolia
- 11.23.1 Resources and reserves
- 11.23.2 Mines and projects
- 11.23.3 Molybdenum processing facilities
- 11.24 The Netherlands
- 11.24.1 Molybdenum processing facilities
- 11.25 North Korea
- 11.25.1 Molybdenum mines and projects
- 11.26 Pakistan
- 11.27 Panama
- 11.27.1 Molybdenum mines and projects
- 11.28 Papua New Guinea
- 11.28.1 Mines and projects
- 11.29 Peru
- 11.29.1 Resources and reserves
- 11.29.2 Mines and projects
- 11.30 Philippines
- 11.30.1 Mines and projects
- 11.31 Poland
- 11.31.1 Mines and projects
- 11.31.2 Molybdenum processing facilities
- 11.32 Russia
- 11.32.1 Resources and reserves
- 11.32.2 Mines and projects
- 11.32.3 Molybdenum processing facilities
- 11.33 Slovakia
- 11.33.1 Mines and projects
- 11.34 South Africa
- 11.35 South Korea
- 11.35.1 Resources and reserves
- 11.35.2 Mines and projects
- 11.35.3 Molybdenum processing facilities
- 11.36 Spain
- 11.37 Sweden
- 11.37.1 Mines and projects
- 11.38 Taiwan
- 11.39 Turkey
- 11.39.1 Mines and projects
- 11.40 Ukraine
- 11.41 United Kingdom
- 11.41.1 Molybdenum processing facilities
- 11.42 USA
- 11.42.1 Resources and reserves
- 11.42.2 Mines and projects
- 11.42.3 Molybdenum processing facilities
- 11.43 Uzbekistan
- 11.43.1 Molybdenum processing facilities
- 11.44 Vietnam
- 11.44.1 Molybdenum processing facilities
12. Company profiles
- 12.1 Antofagasta
- 12.1.1 Los Pelambres
- 12.1.2 Centinela
- 12.2 Anglo American
- 12.2.1 Compañía Minera Doña Inés de Collahuasi (CMDIC)
- 12.2.2 Anglo American Sur
- 12.2.3 Los Bronces
- 12.3 Chifeng Aolunhua Mining
- 12.4 China Gold Inner Mongolia Mining
- 12.5 China Minmetals
- 12.5.1 Hunan Shizhuyuan Nonferrous Metals
- 12.5.2 Galeno
- 12.6 China Molybdenum
- 12.6.1 Sandaozhuang
- 12.6.2 Shangfanggou
- 12.6.3 Donggebi
- 12.7 China Railway Resources
- 12.8 Codelco
- 12.8.1 Andina
- 12.8.2 Chuquicamata
- 12.8.3 El Salvador
- 12.8.4 El Teniente
- 12.8.5 Radomiro Tomic
- 12.8.6 Molyb
- 12.9 Cronimet
- 12.10 Dexing Copper Mining
- 12.11 Fengning Xinyuan
- 12.12 Freeport McMoRan
- 12.12.1 Henderson
- 12.12.2 Bagdad, Sierrita, Morenci and Chino
- 12.12.3 Cerro Verde
- 12.12.4 Climax
- 12.12.4.1 Fort Madison processing facility
- 12.12.4.2 Climax Technology Center, Sahuarita
- 12.12.4.3 Rotterdam plant
- 12.12.4.4 Climax Stowmarket
- 12.13 Grupo Mexico
- 12.13.1 Southern Copper Corporation (SCC)
- 12.13.2 Minera Mexico
- 12.13.2.1 Buenavista
- 12.13.2.2 La Caridad
- 12.13.3 Southern Copper Corporation Peru Branch (SCPB)
- 12.13.3.1 Cuajone
- 12.13.3.2 Toquepala
- 12.13.3.3 Los Chancas
- 12.13.3.4 Michiquillay
- 12.14 Jilin Daheishan Molybdenum Industry
- 12.15 Jinduicheng Molybdenum
- 12.16 KGHM Polska Miedz
- 12.16.1 KGHM International
- 12.16.2 Sierra Gorda SCM
- 12.17 Luanchuan Longyu Molybdenum
- 12.18 Rio Tinto
- 12.18.1 Bingham Canyon
- 12.18.2 Resolution Copper
- 12.18.3 La Granja
- 12.19 Shaanxi Ligeance Mineral Resources
- 12.20 Shaanxi Luonan Jiulong Mining
- 12.21 Souzmetallresource
- 12.21.1 Sorsk Mining and metallurgical Complex
- 12.21.2 Sorsk Ferromolybdenum Plant
- 12.21.3 Zhireken Mining and Metallurgical Complex
- 12.21.4 Zhireken Ferromolybdenum Plant
- 12.22 Zhongxi Moly Mining
13. Consumption of molybdenum by first use
- 13.1 Steel applications
- 13.1.1 Historical trends in steel
- 13.1.1.1 Historical steel production
- 13.1.1.2 Production process
- 13.1.1.3 Main steel producers
- 13.1.1.4 Consumption of steel
- 13.1.2 Stainless steels
- 13.1.2.1 Grades of stainless steel
- 13.1.2.2 Historical stainless steel production
- 13.1.2.3 Consumption of stainless steel
- 13.1.3 Alloy engineering steels
- 13.1.3.1 Full alloy steels
- 13.1.3.2 Types of full alloy steels
- 13.1.3.3 HSLA steels
- 13.1.3.4 Pipeline steels
- 13.1.3.5 Transport steels
- 13.1.3.6 Structural steels
- 13.1.3.7 Other HSLA steels
- 13.1.4 Tool and high-speed steels
- 13.1.4.1 Types of tool and high-speed steel
- 13.1.4.2 Production of tool steels
- 13.1.4.3 Consumption of tool steels
- 13.1.5 Carbon steel
- 13.1.5.1 Definition and composition
- 13.1.5.2 Markets for carbon steel
- 13.1.5.3 Substitution
- 13.1.6 Outlook for steel production
- 13.1.7 China: Is the country reaching a peak?
- 13.1.8 Which are the future growth areas?
- 13.1.8.1 Outlook for molybdenum consumption in steel
- 13.1.9 Outlook for stainless steel
- 13.1.9.1 Outlook for molybdenum in stainless steel
- 13.2 Cast iron
- 13.2.1 Types of cast iron
- 13.2.2 Use of molybdenum in cast iron
- 13.2.3 Production of cast iron
- 13.2.4 Outlook for cast iron and molybdenum use
- 13.3 Molybdenum metal and molybdenum-based alloys
- 13.3.1 Types of molybdenum-base alloys
- 13.3.2 Applications of molybdenum metal and alloys
- 13.3.2.1 LCD Panels and solar cells
- 13.3.2.2 Lighting industry
- 13.3.2.3 Electronics industry
- 13.3.2.4 Materials processing and thermal spray coating
- 13.3.2.5 High-temperatures furnaces and equipment
- 13.3.2.6 Glass manufacturing
- 13.3.2.7 Aerospace and defence
- 13.3.2.8 Nuclear industry
- 13.3.3 Outlook for molybdenum metal
- 13.4 High-performance alloys (HPA)
- 13.4.1 Definition and composition
- 13.4.2 Types of molybdenum-bearing HPA
- 13.4.2.1 Nickel-based HPA
- 13.4.2.2 Cobalt-based HPA
- 13.4.2.3 Iron-nickel-based HPA
- 13.4.2.4 Titanium-based alloys
- 13.4.3 Markets for HPA
- 13.4.3.1 Aerospace applications
- 13.4.3.2 Non-aerospace applications
- 13.4.4 Production of HPA
- 13.4.5 Outlook for molybdenum in High Performance Alloys
- 13.5 Chemical applications
- 13.5.1 Catalysts
- 13.5.1.1 Use and types of molybdenum-bearing catalysts
- 13.5.1.2 Producers of molybdenum catalysts
- 13.5.1.3 Catalyst regeneration and recycling
- 13.5.1.4 Regenerators and recyclers of molybdenum-bearing catalysts
- 13.5.2 Greases and lubricants
- 13.5.2.1 Types of greases
- 13.5.2.2 Grease and lubricant production and producers
- 13.5.3 Pigments and corrosion inhibitors
- 13.5.3.1 Pigments
- 13.5.3.2 Corrosion inhibitors
- 13.5.4 Other chemical uses of molybdenum
- 13.5.5 Outlook for chemical applications
14. Macro economic outlook
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