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ニッケル:2029年までの展望 (第16版)

Nickel: Outlook to 2029, 16th Edition

発行 Roskill Information Services 商品コード 930096
出版日 ページ情報 英文
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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ニッケル:2029年までの展望 (第16版) Nickel: Outlook to 2029, 16th Edition
出版日: 2020年04月30日 ページ情報: 英文
担当者のコメント
世界の金属・鉱物市場調査のリーダーとして定評のある Roskill Information Services の ”ニッケル” の16版 です。バッテリーにおけるニッケルの使用は市場の15% -20% を占めると予測しています。当レポートでは、世界のニッケル市場について調査分析し、世界の生産・消費動向、生産コスト、国際取引、価格、今後の展望などを示しており、電気自動車業界からの需要の見通しとそのその他業界からの需要が今後10年間で発展する可能性、市場バランスと価格の展望などについてまとめています。
概要

2019年におけるニッケル需要は約4%の増加となり、過去3年間 (年間平均7%増加) より大幅に減少しました。 これは主に、2019年においてステンレススチール部門からの需要の伸びが鈍化したことによるものです。中国の伸びは依然として強いものの、ROW (その他地域) の需要は減少しています。さらに、中国政府によるEV補助金の撤回を受け、電気自動車の売上成長が減速したことにより、2019年におけるバッテリー部門からの一次ニッケル需要の伸びは2018年よりも更に鈍化しました。

当レポートでは、世界のニッケル市場について調査分析し、世界の生産・消費動向、生産コスト、国際取引、価格、今後の展望などを示しており、進行中のプロジェクト、電気自動車業界からの需要の見通しとそのニッケル産業及ぼす影響、ステンレススチール・その他業界からの需要が今後10年間で発展する可能性、市場バランスと価格の展望などについてまとめています。

第1章 エグゼクティブサマリー

第2章 ニッケルのフローチャート

第3章 世界の生産

  • ニッケルの鉱山生産
  • ニッケル中間製品の生産
  • ニッケルの精製生産
    • 国別
    • プロセス別
    • タイプ別
    • 主要生産業者
  • ニッケルのリサイクル

第4章 生産コスト

  • ニッケルの生産コスト
  • 生産コストの動向
    • 鉱石価格
    • 電力コスト
    • 副生金属
    • 為替レート
    • 労働コスト
    • 輸送コスト
  • ニッケル採掘プロジェクトの分析

第5章 世界の消費

  • ニッケルの直接利用
  • ニッケルの最終利用

第6章 国際取引

  • ニッケル鉱石とその精鉱
  • ニッケル中間製品
  • フェロニッケル
  • ニッケル粉末・フレーク
  • ニッケル化学品

第7章 価格

  • ニッケルの値付け
  • 精製ニッケルの価格
  • 硫酸ニッケルの価格

第8章 展望

  • 需要動向
    • ステンレススチール
    • 合金鋼と鋳物
    • 非鉄合金
    • 電池
    • メッキ
    • その他用途におけるニッケルの消費
    • ニッケルタイプ別の需要展望
    • 国別のニッケル消費展望
  • 供給動向
    • インドネシアにおける発展
    • フィリピンにおける発展
    • 中国における発展
    • その他生産者における動向
    • 新規プロジェクトの概要
    • ベースケースの供給展望
  • 市場バランスの展望
  • 価格展望
  • COVID-19の影響

第9章 背景

  • 歴史
  • 特性
  • 産出
  • 埋蔵量と資源
  • ニッケルの加工

第10章 持続可能性

  • 環境・社会・ガバナンス
  • 重要な原材料
  • 責任ある調達活動

第11章 国のプロファイル

第12章 企業プロファイル (46ヶ国)

  • Anglo American
  • BHP Nickel West
  • Glencore
  • Jinchuan Group Limited (JNMC)
  • Nornickel
  • PT Antam
  • 住友鉱山
  • Tsingshan
  • Vale

第13章 消費:ファーストユーズ

  • ステンレススチール
  • 合金鋼と鋳物
  • 非鉄合金
  • メッキ
  • 電池
  • その他

第14章 マクロ経済の展望

図表

List of Tables

  • Table 1: Nickel mine production by country, 2013-2019
  • Table 2: Refined nickel production by country, 2013-2019
  • Table 3: Production of refined nickel by type, 2013-2019
  • Table 4: Major primary refined nickel producers, 2019
  • Table 5: Primary nickel consumption by application, 2013-2019
  • Table 6: Primary nickel consumption by application and form, 2013-2019
  • Table 7: Primary refined nickel consumption by region, 2013-2019
  • Table 8: End use estimates of nickel by application and sector, 2019
  • Table 9: Exports of nickel ores and concentrates: 2013-2019
  • Table 10: Imports of nickel ores and concentrates: 2013-2019
  • Table 11: Exports of nickel matte: 2013-2019
  • Table 12: Imports of nickel matte: 2013-2019
  • Table 13: Exports of nickel oxides and sinters, 2013-2019
  • Table 14: Imports of nickel oxides and sinters, 2013-2019
  • Table 15: Exports of ferronickel, 2013-2019
  • Table 16: Imports of ferronickel, 2013-2019
  • Table 17: Exports of nickel metal, 2013-2019
  • Table 18: Imports of nickel metal, 2013-2019
  • Table 19: Exports of nickel powders and flakes, 2013-2019
  • Table 20: Imports of nickel powders and flakes, 2013-2019
  • Table 21: Exports of nickel sulphate, 2013-2019
  • Table 22: Imports of nickel sulphate, 2013-2019
  • Table 23: Exports of nickel oxides and hydroxides, 2013-2019
  • Table 24: Imports of nickel oxides and hydroxides, 2013-2019
  • Table 25: LME-approved nickel brands
  • Table 26: LME-approved warehouse locations
  • Table 27: SHFE-approved nickel brands
  • Table 28: LME average nickel cash price, Q1 2012-Q4 2019
  • Table 29: Primary nickel consumption by application 2019-2029
  • Table 30: Forecast crude stainless steel production, 2019-2029
  • Table 31: Forecast nickel use by the stainless steel industry, 2019-2029
  • Table 32: Forecast primary nickel use by the alloy steels and castings industries, 2019-2029
  • Table 33: Forecast primary nickel use by the non-ferrous alloys industries, 2019-2029
  • Table 34: Nickel use batteries by battery type and by use, 2019-2029
  • Table 35: Source of nickel consumed in batteries, 2019-2029
  • Table 36: Forecast primary nickel use by the plating industry, 2019-2029
  • Table 37: Forecast primary nickel use by other industries, 2019-2029
  • Table 38: Outlook for nickel demand by type and application 2019-2029
  • Table 39: Primary nickel consumption by country, 2019-2029
  • Table 40: Outlook for mine production from potential new projects and restarts, 2020-2029
  • Table 41: Outlook for intermediate production from potential new projects and restarts, 2020-2029
  • Table 42: Outlook for refined production from potential new projects and restarts, 2020-2029
  • Table 43: Outlook for mine production of nickel, by country, 2019-2029
  • Table 44: Outlook for intermediate production of nickel, by country, 2019-2029
  • Table 45: Outlook for expected production of refined nickel, 2019-2029
  • Table 46: Outlook for primary supply, demand and market balance, 2019-2029
  • Table 47: Base case price forecast for LME cash prices: 2019-2029
  • Table 48: Selected properties of nickel
  • Table 49: Nickel-containing minerals
  • Table 50: World estimated nickel reserves, early 2020
  • Table 51: Nickel mine production vs Human Freedom Index
  • Table 52: Nickel mine production vs Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index
  • Table 53: Nickel mine production vs World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index
  • Table 54: Critical raw materials identified by key Government bodies
  • Table 55: Responsible sourcing initiatives and policies, 2019
  • Table 56: OECD Due Diligence Guidance for minerals - 5-Step Framework for Upstream and Downstream Supply Chains
  • Table 57: Albania: Summary statistics, 2013-2019
  • Table 58: Albania: Summary of operations, 2019
  • Table 59: Argentina: Summary statistics, 2013-2019
  • Table 60: Australia: Summary statistics, 2013-2019
  • Table 61: Australia: Summary of operations, 2019
  • Table 62: Australia: Details of projects
  • Table 63: Austria: Summary statistics, 2013-2019
  • Table 64: Austria: Summary of operations, 2019
  • Table 65: Belgium: Summary statistics, 2013-2019
  • Table 66: Belgium: Summary of operations, 2019
  • Table 67: Botswana: Summary statistics, 2013-2019
  • Table 68: Botswana: Summary of operations, 2019
  • Table 69: Brazil: Summary statistics, 2013-2019
  • Table 70: Brazil: Summary of operations, 2019
  • Table 71: Brazil: Details of projects
  • Table 72: Canada: Summary statistics, 2013-2019
  • Table 73: Canada: Summary of operations, 2019
  • Table 74: Canada: Details of projects
  • Table 75: China: Summary statistics, 2013-2019
  • Table 76: China: Summary of operations, 2019
  • Table 77: Colombia: Summary statistics, 2013-2019
  • Table 78: Colombia: South32 resources and reserves
  • Table 79: Colombia: Summary of operations, 2019
  • Table 80: Cuba: Summary statistics, 2013-2019
  • Table 81: Cuba: Summary of operations, 2019
  • Table 82: Dominican Republic: Summary statistics, 2013-2019
  • Table 83: Dominican Republic: Summary of operations, 2019
  • Table 84: Finland: Summary statistics, 2013-2019
  • Table 85: Finland: Summary of operations, 2019
  • Table 86: France: Summary statistics, 2013-2019
  • Table 87: France: Summary of operations, 2019
  • Table 88: Germany: Summary statistics, 2013-2019
  • Table 89: Greece: Summary statistics, 2013-2019
  • Table 90: Greece: Summary of operations, 2019
  • Table 91: Guatemala: Summary statistics, 2013-2019
  • Table 92: Guatemala: Summary of operations, 2019
  • Table 93: India: Summary statistics, 2013-2019
  • Table 94: India: Summary of operations, 2019
  • Table 95: Indonesia: Summary statistics, 2013-2019
  • Table 96: Indonesia: Summary of operations, 2019
  • Table 97: Indonesia: Details of projects
  • Table 98: Ivory Coast: Details of projects
  • Table 99: Japan: Summary statistics, 2013-2019
  • Table 100: Japan: Summary of operations, 2019
  • Table 101: Kosovo: Summary statistics, 2013-2019
  • Table 102: Kosovo: Summary of operations, 2019
  • Table 103: Macedonia: Summary statistics, 2013-2019
  • Table 104: Macedonia: Summary of operations, 2019
  • Table 105: Madagascar: Summary statistics, 2013-2019
  • Table 106: Madagascar: Summary of operations, 2019
  • Table 107: Myanmar: Summary statistics, 2013-2019
  • Table 108: Myanmar: Summary of operations, 2019
  • Table 109: New Caledonia mining districts
  • Table 110: New Caledonia: mines
  • Table 111: New Caledonia: Summary statistics, 2013-2019
  • Table 112: New Caledonia: Summary of operations, 2019
  • Table 113: Norway: Summary statistics, 2013-2019
  • Table 114: Norway: Summary of operations, 2019
  • Table 115: Papua New Guinea: Summary statistics, 2013-2019
  • Table 116: Papua New Guinea: Summary of operations, 2019
  • Table 117: Papua New Guinea: Details of projects
  • Table 118: Philippines: Summary statistics, 2013-2019
  • Table 119: Philippines: Closed and suspended nickel mines as at early 2020
  • Table 120: Philippines: Summary of operations, 2019
  • Table 121: Philippines: Details of projects
  • Table 122: Poland: Summary statistics, 2013-2019
  • Table 123: Russia: Summary statistics, 2013-2019
  • Table 124: Russia: Summary of operations, 2019
  • Table 125: Russia: Details of projects
  • Table 126: South Africa: Summary statistics, 2013-2019
  • Table 127: South Africa: Summary of operations, 2019
  • Table 128: South Korea: Summary statistics, 2013-2019
  • Table 129: South Korea: Summary of operations, 2019
  • Table 130: Spain: Summary statistics, 2013-2019
  • Table 131: Spain: Summary of operations, 2019
  • Table 132: Sweden: Summary statistics, 2013-2019
  • Table 133: Taiwan: Summary statistics, 2013-2019
  • Table 134: Taiwan: Summary of operations, 2019
  • Table 135: Thailand: Details of projects
  • Table 136: Turkey: Summary statistics, 2013-2019
  • Table 137: Turkey: Summary of operations, 2019
  • Table 138: Turkey: Details of projects
  • Table 139: Ukraine: Summary statistics, 2013-2019
  • Table 140: Ukraine: Summary of operations, 2019
  • Table 141: United Kingdom: Summary statistics, 2013-2019
  • Table 142: United Kingdom: Summary of operations, 2019
  • Table 143: USA: Summary statistics, 2013-2019
  • Table 144: USA: Summary of operations, 2019
  • Table 145: USA: Details of projects
  • Table 146: Venezuela: Summary statistics, 2012-2019
  • Table 147: Vietnam: Summary statistics, 2013-2019
  • Table 148: Vietnam: Details of projects
  • Table 149: Zambia: Summary statistics, 2013-2019
  • Table 150: Zambia: Summary of operations, 2019
  • Table 151: Zimbabwe: Summary statistics, 2013-2019
  • Table 152: Zimbabwe: Summary of operations, 2019
  • Table 153: Anglo American: Summary of operations
  • Table 154: Anglo American: Refined nickel production, 2013-2019
  • Table 155: Anglo American: Refined nickel production, Q1 2017-Q4 2019
  • Table 156: Brazil: Anglo American: Reserves and resources
  • Table 157: BHP Nickel West: Summary of operations
  • Table 158: BHP Nickel West: Refined nickel production, 2013-2019
  • Table 159: BHP Nickel West: Nickel resources
  • Table 160: BHP Nickel West: Nickel reserves
  • Table 161: BHP Nickel West: Quarterly refined nickel production, Q1 2017-Q4 2019
  • Table 162: Glencore: Summary of operations
  • Table 163: Glencore: Refined nickel production, 2013-2019
  • Table 164: Glencore: Nickel resources
  • Table 165: Glencore: Nickel reserves
  • Table 166: Murrin Murrin: Refined nickel production, Q1 2017-Q4 2019
  • Table 167: Nikkelverk refined nickel production, Q1 2017-Q4 2019
  • Table 168: Koniambo: Refined nickel production, Q1 2017-Q4 2019
  • Table 169: JNMC: Summary of operations
  • Table 170: JNMC: Refined nickel production, 2013-2019
  • Table 171: Nornickel: Summary of operations
  • Table 172: Nornickel: Production of refined nickel, 2013-2019
  • Table 173: Nornickel MMC Kola mining assets
  • Table 174: Nornickel Polar Division mining assets
  • Table 175: Nornickel: Nickel reserves
  • Table 176: Nornickel: Nickel resources
  • Table 177: PT Antam: Summary of operations
  • Table 178: PT Antam: Nickel production, 2013-2019
  • Table 179: PT Antam: Quarterly refined nickel production, Q1 2017-Q4 2019
  • Table 180: PT Antam: Nickel reserves
  • Table 181: PT Antam: Nickel resources
  • Table 182: PT Antam: Gag Nickel reserves
  • Table 183: PT Antam: Gag Nickel resources
  • Table 184: SMM: Summary of operations
  • Table 185: Vale: Summary of operations
  • Table 186: Vale: Refined nickel production, 2013-2019
  • Table 187: Vale proven and probable reserves (DMT, Millions)
  • Table 188: Onça Puma quarterly ferronickel production, Q1 2017-Q4 2019
  • Table 189: Vale refined nickel production in Canada, Q1 2017-Q4 2019
  • Table 190: Clydach quarterly refined nickel production, Q1 2017-Q4 2019
  • Table 191: Primary nickel consumption by first use, 2013-2019
  • Table 192: Nickel consumption in stainless steel. 2013-2019
  • Table 193: Production of crude stainless steel, 2013-2019
  • Table 194: Select trade protection measures imposed on Indonesian stainless steel, 2019
  • Table 195: Net imports of stainless steel scrap, 2012-2019
  • Table 196: Forecast crude stainless steel production, 2019-2029
  • Table 197: Nickel consumption in stainless steel, 2019-2029
  • Table 198: Primary nickel consumption in alloy steels and castings, 2013-2019
  • Table 199: Forecast crude steel production, 2019-2029
  • Table 200: Primary nickel consumption in alloy steels and castings, 2019-2029
  • Table 201: Primary nickel consumption in non-ferrous alloys, 2013-2019
  • Table 202: Number of nuclear reactors under construction (November 2019)
  • Table 203: Primary Nickel consumption in non-ferrous alloys, 2019-2029
  • Table 204: Primary nickel use in plating, 2013-2019
  • Table 205: Detailed breakdown of nickel use in nickel plating by end application
  • Table 206: Outlook for nickel use in plating, 2019-2029
  • Table 207: Nickel consumption in batteries by type and use, 2013-2019
  • Table 208: Nickel use in NiMH batteries by form
  • Table 209: Nickel use in NiCd batteries by form
  • Table 210: Nickel use batteries by battery type and by use, 2019-2029
  • Table 211: Source of nickel consumed in batteries, 2019-2029
  • Table 212: Primary nickel consumption in other applications, 2019-2029
  • Table 213: Forecast GDP for top-30 economies and regions, 2019-2030
  • Table 214: Forecast GDP growth rates for top-30 economies and regions, 2019-2030
  • Table 215: Forecast GDP per capita for top-30 economies and regions, 2019-2030
  • Table 216: Forecast population for top-30 economies and regions, 2019-2030
  • Table 217: Forecast inflation for top-30 economies and regions, 2019-2030
  • Table 218: Forecast exchange rates and energy prices, 2019-2030

List of Figures

  • Figure 1: LME nickel cash price, 1997-2019
  • Figure 2: LME and SHFE nickel stocks, Jan 2000-Feb 2020
  • Figure 3: World demand for refined nickel by first use, 2013-2019
  • Figure 4: World demand for refined nickel by region, 2013-2019
  • Figure 5: Refined nickel production by country, 2013-2019
  • Figure 6: Outlook for market balance for nickel, 2019-2029
  • Figure 7: Outlook for nickel prices, 2010-2029
  • Figure 8: COVID-19: GDP growth scenarios, 2015-2024
  • Figure 9: Nickel flowchart
  • Figure 10: Nickel mine production, 2013-2019
  • Figure 11: Nickel mine production by ore type and country, 2019
  • Figure 12: Nickel mine production by ore type, 2013-2019
  • Figure 13: Production of nickel by first product produced, 2013-2019
  • Figure 14: Production of nickel intermediates by country, 2013-2019
  • Figure 15: Refined nickel production by region, 2013-2019
  • Figure 16: Refined nickel production by type, 2013-2019
  • Figure 17: Refined nickel production by type, 2010-2019
  • Figure 18: Scrap ratios in stainless steel, 2013-2019
  • Figure 19: External scrap ratios in stainless steel, 2013-2019
  • Figure 20: Use of primary versus recycled nickel in batteries, 2013-2019
  • Figure 21: Total cash and all-in sustaining cost curve for select producers, 2019
  • Figure 22: All-in sustaining cost curve for select producers by deposit type, 2019
  • Figure 23: Unit value of Philippine and Indonesian ore exports to China and LME nickel cash price. 2010-2019
  • Figure 24: Brent crude oil price, coal price and natural gas price, 2014-2019
  • Figure 25: Revenue share at nickel operations by metal, 2019
  • Figure 26: LME nickel and refined copper cash price and cobalt metal price, 2010-2019, Q1 2010=US$100/t
  • Figure 27: Exchange rates of major refined nickel producing countries, 2010-2019 (2010, Q1=100)
  • Figure 28: Quarterly Baltic Dry Shipping Index, 2010-2019
  • Figure 29: Nickel projects ranked by capital intensity, 2019
  • Figure 30: Project Incentive Price at 20% IRR
  • Figure 31: Primary nickel consumption by application, 2019
  • Figure 32: Direct use of nickel by application and form, 2019
  • Figure 33: Refined nickel consumption by region, 2013-2019
  • Figure 34: End use of nickel by region, 2013-2019
  • Figure 35: Major exports of nickel ores and concentrates by origin and destination, 2019
  • Figure 36: Major exports of nickel matte by origin and destination, 2019
  • Figure 37: Major exports of nickel oxides and sinters by origin and destination, 2019
  • Figure 38: Major exports of ferronickel by origin and destination, 2019
  • Figure 39: Major exports of nickel metal by origin and destination, 2019
  • Figure 40: Major exports of nickel powders and flakes by origin and destination, 2019
  • Figure 41: Major exports of nickel sulphate by origin and destination, 2019
  • Figure 42: Major exports of nickel oxides and hydroxides by origin and destination, 2019
  • Figure 43: LME stocks by type, 2014-2020
  • Figure 44: LME stocks and cancelled warrants, Jan 2019-Feb 2020
  • Figure 45: SHFE nickel stocks, Apr 2015-Dec 2019
  • Figure 46: LME nickel cash price, 2000-Jan 2020
  • Figure 47: LME nickel cash-3M contango/backwardation, Jan 2019-Feb 2020
  • Figure 48: Trends in the prices of nickel metal and nickel sulphate, Jan 2013-Jan 2020
  • Figure 49: China: Nickel sulphate premium over nickel metal price, Jan 2013-Jan 2020
  • Figure 50: Primary nickel consumption by application 2019-2029
  • Figure 51: Stainless steel apparent consumption forecast, 2019-2029
  • Figure 52: Forecast crude stainless steel production, 2019-2029
  • Figure 53: Forecast nickel use in stainless steel by source of nickel units, 2013-2029
  • Figure 54: World: Outlook for nickel use in batteries by battery type, 2013-2029
  • Figure 55: Nickel use by type of market, 2019-2029
  • Figure 56: Primary nickel consumption by country, 2019-2029
  • Figure 57: Primary nickel consumption, 2019-2029
  • Figure 58: Forecast Class II production in Indonesia, 2010-2029
  • Figure 59: Forecast production of hydrometallurgical intermediates and nickel matte in Indonesia, 2020-2029
  • Figure 60: Forecast refined nickel production in China, 2011-2029
  • Figure 61: Expected supply from new mining projects, outside of Indonesia, 2020-2029
  • Figure 62: Capacity and production of nickel matte, 2020-2029
  • Figure 63: Comparison of spare intermediate processing capacity and new mine production, 2020-2029
  • Figure 64: Outlook for refined nickel expected supply from projects and restarts, 2020-2029
  • Figure 65: Outlook for expected mine production by type, 2019-2029
  • Figure 66: Outlook for expected mine supply by country, 2019-2029
  • Figure 67: Expected intermediate production by country, 2019-2029
  • Figure 68: Expected intermediate production by product, 2019-2029
  • Figure 69: Outlook for refined nickel supply by type, 2019-2029
  • Figure 70: Outlook for nickel supply by country, 2019-2029
  • Figure 71: Primary nickel balance, 2013-2019
  • Figure 72: Outlook for primary nickel market balance, 2019-2029
  • Figure 73: Incentive LME prices by type of operation
  • Figure 74: Probabilistic price outlook for nickel, 2019-2029
  • Figure 75: COVID-19: Chinese GDP growth scenarios, 2015-2024
  • Figure 76: COVID-19: Global GDP growth scenarios, 2015-2024
  • Figure 77: Average grades of nickel sulphide ores by country
  • Figure 78: Average grades of laterite reserves by country
  • Figure 79: Typical pyro metallurgical processing of sulphide ores flowsheet
  • Figure 80: Typical pyrometallurgical processing of laterite ores flowsheet
  • Figure 81: NPI production process flowsheet
  • Figure 82: Typical hydro metallurgical processing of laterite ores flowsheet
  • Figure 83: Simplified flowchart of main nickel production process
  • Figure 84: UN Sustainable Development Goals
  • Figure 85: Roskill's ESG framework
  • Figure 86: Primary energy demand and global warming potential for 1kg Ni-in-Class I
  • Figure 87: Primary energy demand and global warming potential for 1kg Ni-in-FeNi
  • Figure 88: Criticality matrix
  • Figure 89: European CRM list, 2017
  • Figure 90: Australia: Nickel mineral occurrences and operating mines, 2020
  • Figure 91: Australia mine, intermediate and primary production, 2013-2019
  • Figure 92: Brazil mine, intermediate and refined production, 2013-2019
  • Figure 93: Brazil: refined production, 2013-2019
  • Figure 94: Canada mine, intermediate and primary production, 2013-2019
  • Figure 95: Canada, refined nickel production, Q1 2016-Q3 2019
  • Figure 96: China mine, intermediate refined and NPI production, 2013-2019
  • Figure 97: Cuba: mine, intermediate and refined production, 2013-2019
  • Figure 98: Finland: mine, intermediate and refined production, 2013-2019
  • Figure 99: Indonesia: mine, intermediate and refined production, 2010-2019
  • Figure 100: Indonesia: Exports of nickel ores and concentrates, Q1 2010-Q4 2019
  • Figure 101: Indonesia: production of ferronickel and NPI, 2013-2019
  • Figure 102: Indonesia: production of nickel intermediates, Q1 2016-Q3 2019
  • Figure 103: New Caledonia: mine, intermediate and refined nickel production, 2013-2019
  • Figure 104: New Caledonia, refined nickel production Q1 2016-Q4 2019
  • Figure 105: Papua New Guinea: Ramu NiCo production, Q1 2016-Q4 2019
  • Figure 106: Philippines: mine and intermediate nickel production, 2001-2019
  • Figure 107: China: imports of ores and concentrates by source, 2009-2019
  • Figure 108: Philippines: production of nickel intermediates, 2013-2019
  • Figure 109: Russia: Nornickel refined production, Q1 2016-Q3 2019
  • Figure 110: Turkey: mine and intermediate production, 2013-2019
  • Figure 111: Anglo American diagram of operations
  • Figure 112: BHP Billiton diagram of operations
  • Figure 113: Glencore diagram of operations
  • Figure 114: Nornickel diagram of operations
  • Figure 115: SMM diagram of operations
  • Figure 116: Tsingshan diagram of operations
  • Figure 117: Vale diagram of operations
  • Figure 118: Primary nickel consumption by first use, 2013-2019
  • Figure 119: World: Nickel contained in stainless steel and scrap ratio, 2012-2019
  • Figure 120: Apparent consumption of stainless steel, 2001-2019
  • Figure 121: Crude stainless steel production by region, 2001-2019
  • Figure 122: Crude stainless steel production by series, 2001-2019
  • Figure 123: Stainless steel consumption by end-use, 2018
  • Figure 124: Stainless steel apparent consumption forecast, 2019-2029
  • Figure 125: Forecast crude stainless steel production, 2019-2029
  • Figure 126: Outlook of nickel contained in stainless steel and scrap ratio, 2012-2029
  • Figure 127: Forecast nickel use in stainless steel by source of nickel units, 2013-2029
  • Figure 128: Breakdown of nickel source in stainless steel, by type, 2019
  • Figure 129: Global wind power generation, 2001-2030
  • Figure 130: Historical deliveries of civilian jet aircraft: 2013-2019
  • Figure 131: Historical deliveries of civilian jet engine deliveries: 2013-2019
  • Figure 132: Forecast deliveries of civilian jet aircraft, 2019-2029
  • Figure 133: Forecast deliveries of jet engines, 2019-2029
  • Figure 134: Forecast power generation by source, 2019-2029
  • Figure 135: Nickel use in plating, 2010-2019
  • Figure 136: Breakdown of applications of nickel plating, by process and type, 2018
  • Figure 137: Nickel use by type of battery, 2013-2019
  • Figure 138: Material composition of major chemistry of cathode
  • Figure 139: Nickel use by type of market, 2013-2019
  • Figure 140: UK example: Cost per kilometre for different driving options, 2025
  • Figure 141: Forecast vehicle sales, 2013-2029
  • Figure 142: Outlook for global passenger vehicle electrification, 2015-2029
  • Figure 143: Outlook for electrification by vehicle category, 2013-2029
  • Figure 144: Assumed capacity of selected types of electric vehicles, 2019-2029
  • Figure 145: Forecast sales of battery requirements by vehicle category, 2019-2029
  • Figure 146: Unit sales and battery capacity of phones, 2013-2029
  • Figure 147: Battery capacity for major motive end-use applications, 2013-2029
  • Figure 148: Annual installations of energy storage systems, 2019-2029
  • Figure 149: Outlook for battery capacity sales, by application, 2013-2029
  • Figure 150: Forecast market share of battery chemistries in all vehicles, 2013-2029
  • Figure 151: Impact of design changes on effective energy capacity of cathode materials, 2019 and 2029
  • Figure 152: World: Outlook for nickel use in batteries by battery type, 2013-2029
  • Figure 153: Battery nickel use by type of market, 2019-2029
  • Figure 154: Outlook for demand for battery-grade nickel by source, 2013-2029
目次

Nickel prices saw little upside in the first half of 2019, but this changed in the third quarter of the year as the Indonesian government surprised the market by bringing forward its export ban on unprocessed ores from January 2022, as originally scheduled, to January 2020. Rumours and reports that such a move was being contemplated first emerged in early August, which caused the price to begin its rally. The LME nickel cash price averaged US$13,459/t in July but reached an average of US$17,668/t in September following confirmation form the Indonesian government that the ban had been brought forward. While prices fell back in Q4 but remained elevated compared to recent annual averages. The 2019 annual average price was the highest since 2014.

Fears that the market could face shortages of supply caused a sharp drawdown of exchange stocks. LME stocks, which had stood at 152.7kt at the end of September, tumbled to 64.5kt by December. Given the size of the stock drawdown, Roskill believes it unlikely that this material was withdrawn from LME warehouses for consumption, but that instead it is mostly being held off-warrant on financing.

Indonesia's decision to bring forward its ban on exports of low-grade (up to 1.7%) unprocessed ores to 2020 will affect the market considerably. In particular, it will impact Chinese nickel pig iron (NPI) production, since Chinese producers are heavily reliant on Indonesian ores (as well as ores from the Philippines) to feed their furnaces. Roskill forecasts a decline in NPI production in 2020 as Chinese NPI producers draw down their own ore stocks and those at Chinese ports. In 2021, production will come under further pressure as the Chinese NPI industry will no longer have stocks to draw down. Production is, therefore, likely to be similar to the levels achieved the last time Indonesia imposed a total ban on ore exports.

The market has also seen important demand-side changes. Demand only increased by around 4% in 2019, significantly lower than in the previous three years (when demand grew by an average of 7% per year). This is largely because of a slowdown in demand growth from the stainless steel sector in 2019. While Chinese growth remains strong, ROW demand is decreasing. Furthermore, primary nickel demand from the battery sector grew more slowly in 2019 than in 2018 due mainly to lower electric vehicles sales growth following the Chinese government's withdrawal of EV subsidies.

Nonetheless, the push for automotive electrification is set to provide a dramatic upside to nickel. Nickel, used in the cathode materials for lithium-ion batteries, is being consumed in increasingly large quantities. Its outlook is supported not only by the rapid volume growth of the electric vehicle market, but also owing to the increased intensity of use of nickel, as part of efforts to improve the energy density of batteries and extend driving range. Over the outlook period, Roskill forecasts that nickel use in batteries will grow from around 3-4% of nickel demand, to account for as much as 15-20% of the market.

Nickel sulphate is the key raw material for the nickel in lithium-ion batteries and producing this will require an increase in the supply of Class I material or of intermediate products such as MHP. However, most of the growth in output in recent years has been in the form of NPI for the Chinese (and now also for the Indonesian) stainless steel industry. One of the key issues for the nickel industry going forward will be how to supply the material that the battery industry will require.

Owing to these various changes, the nickel market is going through a period of introspection and restructuring. Major producers are likely to review their operations, looking to consolidate costs, or realign their operations to different markets. Roskill's new report provides a comprehensive insight into the trends and likely future direction of the market, to help market participants navigate nickel's stormy waters.

Roskill experts will answer your questions:

  • What are the likely supply developments in Indonesia?
  • Which projects are in the pipeline?
  • How is demand from the electric vehicle industry likely to develop and how will this affect the nickel industry?
  • How is demand from the stainless steel and other industries likely to develop in the next decade?
  • What is the outlook for the market balance and for prices?

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  • Detailed report with ten-year forecasts, for demand, supply and prices
  • Access to the report via Roskill Interactive for up to 5 users
  • Quarterly updates to keep you up to speed on our latest view of the industry
  • Access to Roskill specialists for key market queries
  • Option to download tables and graphs from the report
  • A summary PowerPoint of key report findings

Table of Contents

1. Executive summary

  • 1.1 Nickel market overview
  • 1.2 Nickel demand
  • 1.3 Nickel supply
  • 1.4 Nickel trade
  • 1.5 Outlook
  • 1.6 COVID-19

2. Nickel flowchart

3. World production

  • 3.1 Mine production of nickel
  • 3.2 Production of nickel intermediate products
  • 3.3 Refined production of nickel
    • 3.3.1 Production by country
    • 3.3.2 Production by process
    • 3.3.3 Production by type
    • 3.3.4 Top producers of nickel
  • 3.4 Recycling of nickel
    • 3.4.1 Recycling of nickel in metallurgical applications
    • 3.4.2 Recycling of nickel in batteries

4. Production costs

  • 4.1 Cost of production of nickel
  • 4.2 Trends in production costs
    • 4.2.1 Ore prices
    • 4.2.2 Power costs
    • 4.2.3 By-product metals
    • 4.2.4 Exchange rates
    • 4.2.5 Labour costs
    • 4.2.6 Transport Costs
  • 4.3 Nickel mining project analysis

5. World consumption

  • 5.1 Direct use of nickel
    • 5.1.1 First use of nickel by application
    • 5.1.2 Use of primary nickel by form
    • 5.1.3 Consumption of nickel by region
  • 5.2 End use of nickel
    • 5.2.1 End use of nickel by sector and application
    • 5.2.2 End use of nickel by region

6. International trade

  • 6.1 Nickel ores and concentrates
  • 6.2 Nickel intermediates
    • 6.2.1 Nickel matte
    • 6.2.2 Nickel oxides and sinters
  • 6.3 Ferronickel
  • 6.4 Unwrought nickel metal, not alloyed
  • 6.5 Nickel powders and flakes
  • 6.6 Nickel chemicals
    • 6.6.1 Nickel sulphate
    • 6.6.2 Nickel oxides and hydroxides

7. Prices

  • 7.1 How nickel is priced
  • 7.2 Prices of refined nickel
  • 7.3 Prices of nickel sulphate

8. Outlook

  • 8.1 Outlook for demand
    • 8.1.1 Stainless steel
    • 8.1.2 Alloy steels and castings
    • 8.1.3 Non-ferrous alloys
    • 8.1.4 Batteries
    • 8.1.5 Plating
    • 8.1.6 Nickel consumption in other applications
    • 8.1.7 Outlook for demand by type of nickel
    • 8.1.8 Outlook for nickel consumption by country
  • 8.2 Outlook for supply
    • 8.2.1 Developments in Indonesia
      • 8.2.1.1 Production of ferronickel and NPI
      • 8.2.1.2 Production of intermediates
    • 8.2.2 Developments in the Philippines
    • 8.2.3 Developments in China
    • 8.2.4 Trends among other existing producers
    • 8.2.5 Overview of new projects
      • 8.2.5.1 New mine production
      • 8.2.5.2 New intermediate production
      • 8.2.5.3 New refined production
    • 8.2.6 Base case outlook for supply
      • 8.2.6.1 Mine production
      • 8.2.6.2 Intermediate production
      • 8.2.6.3 Refined production
  • 8.3 Outlook for market balance
  • 8.4 Outlook for prices
    • 8.4.1 Effects of Indonesian NPI supply
    • 8.4.2 Incentive prices for new HPAL projects
    • 8.4.3 Nickel price bifurcation
    • 8.4.4 Nickel price forecast
  • 8.5 COVID-19 impact
    • 8.5.1 Economic scenarios
    • 8.5.2 Potential impact on nickel demand
    • 8.5.3 Potential impact on nickel supply

9. Background

  • 9.1 History
  • 9.2 Properties
    • 9.2.1 Health and environmental issues
  • 9.3 Occurrence
    • 9.3.1 Sulphide ores
    • 9.3.2 Lateritic ores
  • 9.4 Reserves and resources
    • 9.4.1 World reserves
    • 9.4.2 World resources
  • 9.5 Processing of nickel
    • 9.5.1 Pyrometallurgical Processing
      • 9.5.1.1 Pyrometallurgical processing of sulphide concentrates
      • 9.5.1.2 Pyrometallurgical processing of laterite ores
      • 9.5.1.3 Nickel Pig Iron
    • 9.5.2 Hydrometallurgical processing
      • 9.5.2.1 Hydrometallurgical processing of sulphide concentrates
      • 9.5.2.2 Hydrometallurgical processing of laterite ores
      • 9.5.2.3 Hydrometallurgical matte refining

10. Sustainability

  • 10.1 Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG)
    • 10.1.1 Environmental
      • 10.1.1.1 Resource consumption
      • 10.1.1.2 Emissions
      • 10.1.1.3 Biodiversity and land use
      • 10.1.1.4 Tailings disposal
    • 10.1.2 Social
      • 10.1.2.1 Artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM)
      • 10.1.2.2 Human rights
    • 10.1.3 Governance
      • 10.1.3.1 Corruption
      • 10.1.3.2 Ease of Doing Business (EoDB)
  • 10.2 Critical raw materials
  • 10.3 Responsible sourcing initiatives
    • 10.3.1 Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)
    • 10.3.2 LME Red Flag Assessment scheme
    • 10.3.3 Global Reporting Initiative
    • 10.3.4 Responsible Mining Index
    • 10.3.5 Initiative for Responsible Mining Assurance

11. Country profiles

  • 11.1 Albania
  • 11.2 Argentina
  • 11.3 Australia
  • 11.4 Austria
  • 11.5 Belgium
  • 11.6 Botswana
  • 11.7 Brazil
  • 11.8 Canada
  • 11.9 China
    • 11.9.1 Mine production
    • 11.9.2 Class I nickel production
    • 11.9.3 Class II nickel production
  • 11.10 Colombia
  • 11.11 Cuba
  • 11.12 Dominican Republic
  • 11.13 Finland
  • 11.14 France
  • 11.15 Germany
  • 11.16 Greece
  • 11.17 Guatemala
  • 11.18 India
  • 11.19 Indonesia
    • 11.19.1 Exports of Indonesian nickel ores
    • 11.19.2 Production of refined nickel in Indonesia
    • 11.19.3 Production of intermediate products in Indonesia
  • 11.20 Ivory Coast
  • 11.21 Japan
  • 11.22 Kosovo
  • 11.23 Macedonia
  • 11.24 Madagascar
  • 11.25 Myanmar
  • 11.26 New Caledonia
  • 11.27 Norway
  • 11.28 Papua New Guinea
  • 11.29 Philippines
  • 11.30 Poland
  • 11.31 Russia
  • 11.32 South Africa
  • 11.33 South Korea
  • 11.34 Spain
  • 11.35 Sweden
  • 11.36 Taiwan
  • 11.37 Tanzania
  • 11.38 Thailand
  • 11.39 Turkey
  • 11.40 Ukraine
  • 11.41 United Kingdom
  • 11.42 USA
  • 11.43 Venezuela
  • 11.44 Vietnam
  • 11.45 Zambia
  • 11.46 Zimbabwe

12. Company profiles

  • 12.1 Anglo American
    • 12.1.1 Brazil
    • 12.1.2 South Africa and Zimbabwe
  • 12.2 BHP Nickel West
  • 12.3 Glencore
    • 12.3.1 Australia
    • 12.3.2 Canada
    • 12.3.3 Norway
    • 12.3.4 New Caledonia
  • 12.4 Jinchuan Group Limited (JNMC)
  • 12.5 Nornickel
    • 12.5.1 MMC Kola
    • 12.5.2 Polar Division
    • 12.5.3 Harjavalta
  • 12.6 PT Antam
  • 12.7 Sumitomo Metal Mining (SMM)
    • 12.7.1 Japan
  • 12.8 Tsingshan
  • 12.9 Vale
    • 12.9.1 Brazil
    • 12.9.2 Canada
    • 12.9.3 Indonesia
    • 12.9.4 Japan
    • 12.9.5 New Caledonia
    • 12.9.6 United Kingdom

13. Consumption by first use

  • 13.1 Stainless steel
    • 13.1.1 Types of stainless steel
    • 13.1.2 Stainless steel apparent consumption
    • 13.1.3 Stainless steel production
    • 13.1.4 Stainless steel scrap
    • 13.1.5 End uses of stainless steel
    • 13.1.6 Stainless steel outlook
    • 13.1.7 Outlook for nickel in stainless steel
  • 13.2 Alloy steels and castings
    • 13.2.1 Outlook for nickel in alloy steels and castings
  • 13.3 Non-ferrous alloys
    • 13.3.1 High-performance alloys
    • 13.3.2 Special performance alloys
    • 13.3.3 General technical alloys
    • 13.3.4 Outlook for nickel in non-ferrous alloys
  • 13.4 Plating
    • 13.4.1 Types of nickel used
    • 13.4.2 Types of plating
    • 13.4.3 Applications of industrial nickel plating and coating
    • 13.4.4 Outlook for nickel in plating
  • 13.5 Batteries
    • 13.5.1 Types of batteries
    • 13.5.2 Lithium-ion battery chemistries
    • 13.5.3 Types of nickel used
    • 13.5.4 Markets for rechargeable batteries
    • 13.5.5 Trends in demand for electric vehicles
    • 13.5.6 Trends in other battery markets
    • 13.5.7 Trends in Li-ion battery chemistry
    • 13.5.8 Outlook for nickel in batteries
  • 13.6 Other applications

14. Macro economic outlook