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ニッケル:2029年までの展望 (第16版)

Nickel: Outlook to 2029, 16th Edition

発行 Roskill Information Services 商品コード 930096
出版日 ページ情報 英文
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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ニッケル:2029年までの展望 (第16版) Nickel: Outlook to 2029, 16th Edition
出版日: 2020年04月30日 ページ情報: 英文
担当者のコメント
世界の金属・鉱物市場調査のリーダーとして定評のある Roskill Information Services の ”ニッケル” の16版 です。バッテリーにおけるニッケルの使用は市場の15% -20% を占めると予測しています。当レポートでは、世界のニッケル市場について調査分析し、世界の生産・消費動向、生産コスト、国際取引、価格、今後の展望などを示しており、電気自動車業界からの需要の見通しとそのその他業界からの需要が今後10年間で発展する可能性、市場バランスと価格の展望などについてまとめています。
概要

2019年におけるニッケル需要は約4%の増加となり、過去3年間 (年間平均7%増加) より大幅に減少しました。 これは主に、2019年においてステンレススチール部門からの需要の伸びが鈍化したことによるものです。中国の伸びは依然として強いものの、ROW (その他地域) の需要は減少しています。さらに、中国政府によるEV補助金の撤回を受け、電気自動車の売上成長が減速したことにより、2019年におけるバッテリー部門からの一次ニッケル需要の伸びは2018年よりも更に鈍化しました。

当レポートでは、世界のニッケル市場について調査分析し、世界の生産・消費動向、生産コスト、国際取引、価格、今後の展望などを示しており、進行中のプロジェクト、電気自動車業界からの需要の見通しとそのニッケル産業及ぼす影響、ステンレススチール・その他業界からの需要が今後10年間で発展する可能性、市場バランスと価格の展望などについてまとめています。

第1章 エグゼクティブサマリー

第2章 サプライチェーンのフローチャート

第3章 世界の生産

第4章 生産コスト

第5章 世界の消費

第6章 国際取引

第7章 価格

第8章 展望

第9章 背景

第10章 持続可能性

第11章 国のプロファイル

第12章 企業プロファイル

第13章 消費:ファーストユーズ

目次

Nickel prices saw little upside in the first half of 2019, but this changed in the third quarter of the year as the Indonesian government surprised the market by bringing forward its export ban on unprocessed ores from January 2022, as originally scheduled, to January 2020. Rumours and reports that such a move was being contemplated first emerged in early August, which caused the price to begin its rally. The LME nickel cash price averaged US$13,459/t in July but reached an average of US$17,668/t in September following confirmation form the Indonesian government that the ban had been brought forward. While prices fell back in Q4 but remained elevated compared to recent annual averages. The 2019 annual average price was the highest since 2014.

Fears that the market could face shortages of supply caused a sharp drawdown of exchange stocks. LME stocks, which had stood at 152.7kt at the end of September, tumbled to 64.5kt by December. Given the size of the stock drawdown, Roskill believes it unlikely that this material was withdrawn from LME warehouses for consumption, but that instead it is mostly being held off-warrant on financing.

Indonesia's decision to bring forward its ban on exports of low-grade (up to 1.7%) unprocessed ores to 2020 will affect the market considerably. In particular, it will impact Chinese nickel pig iron (NPI) production, since Chinese producers are heavily reliant on Indonesian ores (as well as ores from the Philippines) to feed their furnaces. Roskill forecasts a decline in NPI production in 2020 as Chinese NPI producers draw down their own ore stocks and those at Chinese ports. In 2021, production will come under further pressure as the Chinese NPI industry will no longer have stocks to draw down. Production is, therefore, likely to be similar to the levels achieved the last time Indonesia imposed a total ban on ore exports.

The market has also seen important demand-side changes. Demand only increased by around 4% in 2019, significantly lower than in the previous three years (when demand grew by an average of 7% per year). This is largely because of a slowdown in demand growth from the stainless steel sector in 2019. While Chinese growth remains strong, ROW demand is decreasing. Furthermore, primary nickel demand from the battery sector grew more slowly in 2019 than in 2018 due mainly to lower electric vehicles sales growth following the Chinese government's withdrawal of EV subsidies.

Nonetheless, the push for automotive electrification is set to provide a dramatic upside to nickel. Nickel, used in the cathode materials for lithium-ion batteries, is being consumed in increasingly large quantities. Its outlook is supported not only by the rapid volume growth of the electric vehicle market, but also owing to the increased intensity of use of nickel, as part of efforts to improve the energy density of batteries and extend driving range. Over the outlook period, Roskill forecasts that nickel use in batteries will grow from around 3-4% of nickel demand, to account for as much as 15-20% of the market.

Nickel sulphate is the key raw material for the nickel in lithium-ion batteries and producing this will require an increase in the supply of Class I material or of intermediate products such as MHP. However, most of the growth in output in recent years has been in the form of NPI for the Chinese (and now also for the Indonesian) stainless steel industry. One of the key issues for the nickel industry going forward will be how to supply the material that the battery industry will require.

Owing to these various changes, the nickel market is going through a period of introspection and restructuring. Major producers are likely to review their operations, looking to consolidate costs, or realign their operations to different markets. Roskill's new report provides a comprehensive insight into the trends and likely future direction of the market, to help market participants navigate nickel's stormy waters.

Roskill experts will answer your questions:

  • What are the likely supply developments in Indonesia?
  • Which projects are in the pipeline?
  • How is demand from the electric vehicle industry likely to develop and how will this affect the nickel industry?
  • How is demand from the stainless steel and other industries likely to develop in the next decade?
  • What is the outlook for the market balance and for prices?

Subscribe now and receive:

  • Detailed report with ten-year forecasts, for demand, supply and prices
  • Access to the report via Roskill Interactive for up to 5 users
  • Quarterly updates to keep you up to speed on our latest view of the industry
  • Access to Roskill specialists for key market queries
  • Option to download tables and graphs from the report
  • A summary PowerPoint of key report findings

Table of Contents

  • 1. Executive Summary
  • 2. Supply Chain Flowchart
  • 3. World Production
  • 4. Production Costs
  • 5. World Consumption
  • 6. International Trade
  • 7. Prices
  • 8. Outlook
  • 9. Background
  • 10. Sustainability
  • 11. Country Profiles
  • 12. Company Profiles
  • 13. Consumption by First Use