表紙:リチウムイオン電池:2030年までの展望(第5版)
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リチウムイオン電池:2030年までの展望(第5版)

Lithium-ion Batteries: Outlook to 2030, 5th Edition

出版日: | 発行: Roskill - A Wood Mackenzie Business | ページ情報: 英文 | 納期: 即日から翌営業日

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リチウムイオン電池:2030年までの展望(第5版)
出版日: 2021年06月30日
発行: Roskill - A Wood Mackenzie Business
ページ情報: 英文
納期: 即日から翌営業日
  • 全表示
  • 概要
  • 図表
  • 目次
概要

リチウムイオン電池の持続的な供給は、自動車、エネルギー貯蔵、携帯電子機器などの国際企業のサプライチェーンを支える重要な戦略産業となっています。主要な地域経済は、リチウムイオン電池の地域生産拠点の開発に力を入れており、世界19カ国でリチウムイオン電池施設が稼動または計画されています。今後数年間で、自動車産業がリチウムイオン電池需要の優位性を高め、2030年には世界の電池生産能力の80%以上を占めるようになると予測されています。

また、自動車メーカーがEVの製造能力や研究開発に多額の投資を行っていることから、2030年には自動車販売台数に占めるEVの割合が24%に近づくと予想されます。地域や国の法律によって、自動車業界は排出量目標を達成するために電動化を推進していますが、製品に使用される原材料や部品が持続可能な方法で調達されているかどうかを確認する責任が自動車メーカーに課せられており、サプライチェーンの複数の段階で混乱を引き起こす可能性があります。

当レポートは、リチウムイオン電池について調査しており、市場および原材料の需要・供給、生産コスト、技術、市場の展望、用途・最終用途別の市場分析、持続可能性、主要企業のプロファイルなどの情報を提供しています。

目次

第1章 エグゼクティブサマリー

  • リチウムイオン電池の市場
  • リチウムイオン電池の供給
  • 原材料需要
  • 生産コスト
  • リチウムイオン電池の展望
  • セルメーカーの垂直統合機能
  • バッテリー技術

第2章 リチウムイオン電池のフローチャート

第3章 リチウムイオン電池の供給

  • 電池業界イントロダクション
  • リチウムイオン電池の製造
    • イントロダクション
    • リチウムイオン電池の製造の複雑さ
    • 生産能力別の市場リーダー
    • 地域分析
    • ギガファクトリー:新しい製造パラダイム
  • 電気自動車用リチウムイオン電池生産の地域的自給自足

第4章 セルメーカーの業界統合機能

  • コンポーネントのセル間の後方統合
  • セルからバッテリーパックへの前方統合
  • OEMのEVからセルへの後方統合

第5章 リチウムイオン電池の市場

  • 用途別リチウムイオン電池の最終用途
    • 競合の技術
    • 携帯用電子機器のリチウムイオン電池
    • 電力用途のリチウムイオン電池
    • 動機用途のリチウムイオン電池
    • ESSのリチウムイオン電池
    • 自動車用リチウムイオン電池
  • 地域別自動車用リチウムイオン電池
  • バリューチェーンにおけるリチウムイオン電池の使用

第6章 リチウムイオン電池の原材料需要

  • アルミニウム
    • リチウムイオン電池業界のアルミニウム
    • アルミニウムの需要と供給
    • アルミの価格
  • コバルト
    • リチウムイオン電池業界のコバルト
    • コバルトの需要と供給
    • コバルトの価格
    • リチウムイオン電池業界の銅
    • 銅の需要と供給
    • 銅の価格
  • 黒鉛
    • リチウムイオン電池業界のグラファイト
    • グラファイトの需要と供給
    • グラファイトの価格
  • リチウム
    • リチウムイオン電池業界のリチウム
    • リチウムの需要と供給
    • リチウムの価格
  • マンガン
    • リチウムイオン電池業界のマンガン
    • 硫酸マンガンの需要と供給
    • マンガンの価格
  • ニッケル
    • ニッケルの需要と供給
    • ニッケルの価格

第7章 コスト、売上、粗利益

  • リチウムイオン電池のコスト構造
    • 細胞処理のコスト構造
    • モジュールとパックアセンブリのコスト構造
  • コストダウンの影響要因
    • カソードおよびアノード材料の進化
    • モジュールとパックの組み立ての革新
    • ギガファクトリーの規模の経済
  • コストの見通し
    • 原材料の見通し
    • セルコストの見通し
    • パックコストの見通し

第8章 リチウムイオン電池の見通し

  • 市場開拓の見通し
    • ポータブルエレクトロニクス用途の見通し
    • 電力用途の見通し
    • 動機付け用途の見通し
    • ESS用途の見通し
    • 自動車用途の見通し

第9章 リチウムイオン電池技術

  • リチウムイオン電池の構造
    • リチウムイオン電池セルの構造:概要
    • バッテリーセルフォーマット
    • バッテリーモジュールとパック
  • 製造プロセスとバリューチェーン
    • 原材料から部分的に加工された材料
    • セルコンポーネントの製造
    • セル生産
    • バッテリーモジュール/パックの製造
  • 全固体電池
    • 全固体電池の背景
    • 全固体電池のイントロダクション
    • 固体電解質の種類
    • 技術アプローチ
  • 商業的アプローチ
  • リチウムイオン電池に関連する特許活動の動向
    • 概要
    • イントロダクション
    • 主な動向
    • 最も一般的なバッテリー技術

第10章 携帯用電子機器の需要

  • 背景/概要
  • ポータブル電子機器のリチウムイオン電池の陰極化学
  • 市場動向
    • スマートフォン
    • ラップトップ
    • その他のセグメント
  • 見通し

第11章 リチウムイオン電池の電源用途

  • パワーデバイスの用途
  • 電力用途における競合技術
  • 電力の市場動向
  • 電力のリチウムイオン電池の見通し

第12章 リチウムイオン電池の動力用途

  • 動力装置の用途
  • 動力における競合技術
  • 動力の市場動向
  • 動力におけるリチウムイオン電池の見通し

第13章 リチウムイオン電池のエネルギー貯蔵用途

  • ESS市場のイントロダクション
  • 競合するESS技術
    • ESS技術とその定義
    • 各ESS技術
  • ESSデバイスのエネルギー用途
  • 電気化学(およびリチウムイオン)ESSの市場
  • 電気化学ESSの展望
    • 調査手法と展望
    • ESS技術別展望

第14章 自動車用途とEV需要

  • バックグラウンド
    • 電気自動車の種類
    • パワートレインの進化
    • 政府の電化目標
    • 自動車OEM電化計画
    • 電化における主な課題
  • 最近の動向
    • 自動車市場の最近の動向
    • 電気自動車の市場動向最近の傾向
    • カソード材料の最近の動向
  • 電気自動車の展望
    • 基本的な調査手法
    • バッテリー要件の増加予測
    • バッテリーの化学的性質と性能変化の予測
    • 自動車需要のシナリオ

第15章 バッテリーのリサイクルと二次供給の予測

  • リチウムイオン電池のリサイクルの概要
    • リチウムイオン電池のリサイクルのメリット
    • リチウムイオン電池のリサイクルの課題
  • リチウムイオン電池のリサイクルプロセス
    • 並べ替え
    • 前処理
    • 材料の分離と金属の回収
  • 市場情勢
    • 総括
    • 市場参入企業
  • リチウムイオン電池のリサイクル予測

第16章 持続可能性

  • EV業界における持続可能な考え方の進化
  • BEVとICE車両のライフサイクル分析の比較
    • ライフサイクル分析
    • BEVとICE車両のライフサイクル分析の比較
  • リチウムイオン電池のバリューチェーンのCO2実績
  • リチウムイオン電池原料のCO2実績
  • CO2実績を削減するためのオプション
  • EVバッテリー生産からのCO2排出量の見通し

第17章 企業プロファイル

  • CATL
  • LG Chem
  • Panasonic
  • BYD
  • Samsung SDI
  • SK Innovation
  • CALB
  • Guoxuan
  • AESC
  • PEVE
  • EVE
  • Lishen
  • Rept
  • Farasis
  • Svolt
  • Northvolt
  • BAK
  • Coslight
  • Microvast
  • Tafel
  • Wangxiang 123

第18章 マクロ経済の見通し

図表

List of Tables

  • Table 1: Top-10 large-sized battery manufacturers in China, 2020
  • Table 2: Manufacturing capacity of South Korean and Japanese Li-ion cells makers in home country and abroad in 2020, GWh
  • Table 3: Top-10 large-sized battery manufacturers in Europe, 2030
  • Table 4: World summary of manufacturing plant metrics
  • Table 5: Plant breakdown by capacity brackets, 2030
  • Table 6: Top 15 largest Li-ion battery cell plants globally in 2020
  • Table 7: Modular gigafactory master plan
  • Table 8: Selected top 15 projects with lowest cost per GWh
  • Table 9: Selected industrial policy measures by company, country
  • Table 10: Major cell manufacturers integrated into cathode materials
  • Table 11: Major cell manufacturers integrated into anode materials
  • Table 12: Major cell manufacturers integrated into electrolyte solution
  • Table 13: Major cell manufacturers integrated into separator
  • Table 14: Major cell manufacturers integrated into Cu foil
  • Table 15: Battery pack joint venture between cell manufacturers and OEMs
  • Table 16: Major automotive manufacturers with own battery pack plant
  • Table 17: Aluminium used in battery technologies, 2020-2030
  • Table 18: Cobalt used in battery technologies, 2014-2030
  • Table 19: Graphite used in Li-ion batteries, 2015-2030
  • Table 20: Lithium used in battery technologies, 2014-2030
  • Table 21: Manganese consumption by form in Li-ion, 2015-2020
  • Table 22: Manganese consumption by form in Li-ion, 2021-2030
  • Table 23: Manganese sulphate demand by first use, 2021-2030
  • Table 24: Total nickel use in Li-ion batteries by sector, 2015-2030
  • Table 25: Summary of Li-ion solid-state electrolytes
  • Table 26: Technology map of solid-state battery companies
  • Table 27: Summary of ESS technologies
  • Table 28: Suitability of ESS technologies on different energy applications
  • Table 29: ESS outlook by electro-chemical technology, 2020-2030
  • Table 30: Levels of automotive electrification
  • Table 31: xEV platforms by producer
  • Table 32: Countries from TOP-15 markets (2020) that have specific goal in transport electrification
  • Table 33: Auto OEM groups plans for electrification
  • Table 34: Automotive market sales summary
  • Table 35: Top selling plug-in electric vehicles groups by region, 2020
  • Table 36: Recoverable Materials via different technologies
  • Table 37: Comparison of different Li-ion battery recycling methods
  • Table 38: Major recycling companies in China
  • Table 39: Major recycling companies in South Korea
  • Table 40: Major recycling companies in Japan
  • Table 41: Major recycling companies in Europe
  • Table 42: Major recycling companies in North America
  • Table 43: CATL: Capacity of battery and battery materials, 2020
  • Table 44: LG Chem: Capacity of battery and battery materials, 2020
  • Table 45: Panasonic: Capacity of battery and battery materials, 2020
  • Table 46: BYD: Capacity of battery and battery materials, 2020
  • Table 47: Samsung SDI: Capacity of battery and battery materials, 2020
  • Table 48: SK Innovation: Capacity of battery and battery materials, 2020
  • Table 49: CALB: Capacity of battery and battery materials, 2020
  • Table 50: Guoxuan: Capacity of battery and battery materials, 2020
  • Table 51: AESC: Capacity of battery and battery materials, 2020
  • Table 52: PEVE: Capacity of battery and battery materials, 2020
  • Table 53: EVE: Capacity of battery and battery materials, 2020
  • Table 54: Lishen: Capacity of battery and battery materials, 2020
  • Table 55: Rept: Capacity of battery and battery materials, 2020
  • Table 56: Farasis: Capacity of battery and battery materials, 2020
  • Table 57: Svolt: Capacity of battery and battery materials, 2020
  • Table 58: Northvolt: Capacity of battery and battery materials, 2020
  • Table 59: BAK: Capacity of battery and battery materials, 2020
  • Table 60: Coslight: Capacity of battery and battery materials, 2020
  • Table 61: Microvast: Capacity of battery and battery materials, 2020
  • Table 62: Tafel: Capacity of battery and battery materials, 2020
  • Table 63: Wangxiang 123: Capacity of battery and battery materials, 2020
  • Table 64: Base Case Forecast GDP for top-30 economies and regions, 2020-2031
  • Table 65: Base Case Forecast GDP growth rates for top-30 economies and regions, 2020-2031
  • Table 66: Base Case Forecast GDP per capita for top-30 economies and regions, 2020-2031
  • Table 67: Forecast population for top-30 economies and regions, 2020-2031
  • Table 68: Forecast inflation for top-30 economies and regions, 2020-2031
  • Table 69: Forecast exchange rates and energy prices, 2020-2031

List of Figures

  • Figure 1: Li-ion battery market by end-use, 2000-2020
  • Figure 2: Competing electrochemical battery technologies in analyzed end-uses, 2000-2020
  • Figure 3: Grid/Off-grid ESS capacity installation forecast, 2020-2030
  • Figure 4: Monthly plug-in EV sales by region, 2019-2021
  • Figure 5: Forecast sales of plug-in passenger cars by region, 2020-2030
  • Figure 6: Gigafactories capacity by cell type, 2020-2030
  • Figure 7: Market share of global large-sized cells manufacturing capacity by region in 2020
  • Figure 8: Europe's share of global large-sized Li-ion battery cells manufacturing capacity in 2020, 2025 and 2030
  • Figure 9: North America's share of global large-sized Li-ion battery cells manufacturing capacity in 2020, 2025 and 2030
  • Figure 10: Intensity of use in cell component materials, 2020-2030
  • Figure 11: Historical and forecast inflation-adjusted prices of battery raw materials, 2010-2030
  • Figure 12: Li-ion cell cost forecast by cost factor (ex. Margins), 2020-2030
  • Figure 13: EV battery pack cost forecast on different scenarios, 2020-2030
  • Figure 14: World Li-ion battery end-use markets, 2020-2030
  • Figure 15: Cell capacity by ownership of cell plants, 2020-2030
  • Figure 16: Partnerships between solid-state battery makers and automakers
  • Figure 17: Correlations among the different challenges in the Li metal anode
  • Figure 18: Overview of the lithium-ion battery value chain in 2020
  • Figure 19: Li-ion cell structure including exterior cell components
  • Figure 20: Gravimetric Energy density at cathode level, 2020
  • Figure 21: Gigafactories capacity by cell type, 2020-2030
  • Figure 22: Market share of global large-sized cells manufacturing capacity by company in 2020
  • Figure 23: CATL's EV battery pack price (US$/kWh in 2021 in real terms), 2015-2020
  • Figure 24: CATL's R&D expenses (RMBBn), 2018-2020
  • Figure 25: CATL's revenue of energy storage sector (RMBBn), 2019-2020
  • Figure 26: Global Li-ion battery cell manufacturing capacity in 2020, 2025 and 2030
  • Figure 27: Market share of global large-sized cells manufacturing capacity
  • Figure 28: Market share of global large-sized cells manufacturing capacity by region in 2020
  • Figure 29: China's share of global large-sized Li-ion battery cells manufacturing capacity in 2020, 2025 and 2030
  • Figure 30: Global share of different components production along EV supply chain, 2019
  • Figure 31: Europe's share of global large-sized Li-ion battery cells manufacturing capacity in 2020, 2025 and 2030
  • Figure 32: Europe's large-sized cells manufacturing capacity by country, 2030
  • Figure 33: Direct participants, the Member States, and the different project areas in first IPCEI
  • Figure 34: Direct participants, the Member States, and the different project areas in second IPCEI
  • Figure 35: North America's share of global large-sized Li-ion battery cells manufacturing capacity in 2020, 2025 and 2030
  • Figure 36: North America's large-sized cells manufacturing capacity split by company, 2030
  • Figure 37: Materials and processes undertaken in a typical gigafactory
  • Figure 38: The average cost building a gigafactory in the USA, Europe and China in 2020
  • Figure 39: Cost per gigawatt hour of selected large-capacity planned battery factories
  • Figure 40: Gigafactory basic cost breakdown, 2020
  • Figure 41: Estimated cumulative private and public investment in lithium-ion battery production plants by country, 2010-2020
  • Figure 42: China EV battery production self-sufficiency, 2016-2030
  • Figure 43: Europe EV battery production self-sufficiency, 2016-2030
  • Figure 44: North America EV battery production self-sufficiency, 2016-2030
  • Figure 45: Capacity of battery cell plants owned by OEMs, 2020-2030
  • Figure 46: Cell capacity by ownership of cell plants, 2020-2030
  • Figure 47: World: Li-ion battery use by market, 2000-2020
  • Figure 48: Competing battery technologies in the portable electronics, 2000-2020
  • Figure 49: Competing battery technologies in the power applications, 2000-2020
  • Figure 50: Competing battery technologies in the motive applications, 2000-2020
  • Figure 51: Installed electrochemical ESS (Inc. grid & off-grid applications), 2000-2020
  • Figure 52: World: Market share by battery technology in the electrochemical ESS market
  • Figure 53: World: Market shares by battery technology in the electrochemical ESS market
  • Figure 54: Competing battery technologies in the automotive applications, 2000-2020
  • Figure 55: World: Li-ion battery energy consumption by portable products, 2020
  • Figure 56: World: Li-ion battery energy consumption in power products, 2020
  • Figure 57: World: Li-ion battery energy consumption in motive products, 2020
  • Figure 58: World: Installed capacity in electrochemical ESS by segments, 2020
  • Figure 59: Grid applications of Li-ion technology,2008-2020
  • Figure 60: Automotive sales outlook by xEV type, 2010-2030
  • Figure 61: World: Rechargeable battery energy consumption by xEV type
  • Figure 62: Li-ion battery automotive capacity (GWh) by region, 2020
  • Figure 63: Li-ion battery automotive capacity by region, 2010-2030
  • Figure 64: World: Li-ion battery capacity and demand large capacity cells, 2010-2030
  • Figure 65: Cobalt demand from rechargeable battery applications versus total cobalt demand, 2020-2030
  • Figure 66: Forecast production of refined cobalt by form, 2014-2030
  • Figure 67: Forecast production of cobalt chemicals, by form, 2013-2030
  • Figure 68: Forecast market balances of refined cobalt and cobalt feedstocks, 2016-2030
  • Figure 69: Base-case outlook for cobalt metal prices vs. 10-year average, low and high prices, 2014-2030
  • Figure 70: Graphite demand from Li-ion batteries versus total graphite demand, 2010-2030
  • Figure 71: Forecast supply and demand of graphite, 2020-2030
  • Figure 72: Forecast natural flake graphite supply and demand, 2020-2030
  • Figure 73: Forecast synthetic graphite supply and demand, 2020-2030
  • Figure 74: China: Historical and forecast annual average ex-works prices for raw material flake graphite, 2013-2030
  • Figure 75: Quarterly price and Chinese exports (in terms of quantity and average value) of spherical graphite, Q1 2013- Q1 2021
  • Figure 76: lithium demand from rechargeable battery applications versus total lithium demand, 2014-2030
  • Figure 77: Forecast refined supply and demand of lithium products, 2020-2030
  • Figure 78: Supply-demand balance for refined lithium product, 2020-2030
  • Figure 79: Quarterly spot and contract prices for BG lithium carbonate and hydroxide, Q1-2019-Q1-2021
  • Figure 80: BG lithium compound contract price forecast, 2021-2030
  • Figure 81: Manganese consumption in Li-ion versus total manganese demand, 2015-2030
  • Figure 82: Outlook for manganese demand in Li-ion by cathode group, 2015-2030
  • Figure 83: Outlook for manganese sulphate supply and demand, 2020-2030
  • Figure 84: Primary nickel use in Li-ion and non-Li-ion uses, 2014-2030
  • Figure 85: NPI price vs nickel metal price, Jan 2014-Jan 2021
  • Figure 86: Nickel sulphate premia vs nickel metal price, Jan 2014-March 2021
  • Figure 87: Base case price forecast and nickel market balance, 2020-2030
  • Figure 88: Cost structure of an EV battery pack, 2020
  • Figure 89: Cost structure of Li-ion battery cells, 2020
  • Figure 90: Cost breakdown of cell materials and purchased items, 2020
  • Figure 91: Cost structure of cell processing costs, 2020
  • Figure 92: Cost structure of EV battery module, 2020
  • Figure 93: Cost structure of EV battery pack "bill of materials & labour", 2020
  • Figure 94: Cost of pack integration and thermal management, 2020
  • Figure 95: Cost of EV battery pack (excluding margin), 2016-2020
  • Figure 96: Cost of cell by cathode type(ex-margin), 2020
  • Figure 97: Price and specific capacity of cathode materials by type, 2020
  • Figure 98: Specific capacity of anode materials by type
  • Figure 99: Comparison of modular and 'module-less' technology battery cost with, 2020
  • Figure 100: Impact of cell size on the battery cost, 2020
  • Figure 101: Impact of scale economies on battery cost, 2020
  • Figure 102: Historical and forecast inflation-adjusted prices of battery raw materials, 2010-2030 (2020 = 100)
  • Figure 103: Forecast cost of Li-ion cathode materials, 2020-2030
  • Figure 104: Li-ion cell cost forecast by cost factor (ex. Margins), 2020-2030
  • Figure 105: EV battery pack system cost forecast, 2020-2030
  • Figure 106: EV battery pack system cost forecast on different scenarios, 2020-2030
  • Figure 107: World Li-ion battery use by market, 2020-2030
  • Figure 108: World: Portable Li-ion battery use by sub-category, 2020-2030
  • Figure 109: World: Forecast power Li-ion battery use by sub-category, 2020-2030
  • Figure 110: World: Forecast motive Li-ion battery use by sub-category, 2020-2030
  • Figure 111: World: Forecast ESS Li-ion battery use, 2020-2030
  • Figure 112: Outlook for electro-chemical ESS in grid/off-grid applications
  • Figure 113: Global penetration rate of electric passenger vehicles, 2010-2030
  • Figure 114: EV battery regional demand forecast, 2020-2030
  • Figure 115: The four components of Li-ion battery cell
  • Figure 116: Cell production capacity split by cell format: Large-cell format for EV/ESS, 2020 vs. 2030
  • Figure 117: A cylindrical Li-ion battery cell
  • Figure 118: Tesla's 4680 cylindrical battery cell design
  • Figure 119: Packing principle for cylindrical cells (left) vs. the packing principle of prismatic and pouch cells
  • Figure 120: A prismatic Li-ion battery cell
  • Figure 121: A pouch Li-ion battery cell
  • Figure 122: Picture of Nissan and Tesla's battery modules
  • Figure 123: Picture of Nissan's battery pack
  • Figure 124: Tesla models S battery cooling system: serpentine cooling pipe.
  • Figure 125: Automotive lithium-ion battery value chain
  • Figure 126: Materials flow from raw material to precursor and part processed products
  • Figure 127: Cell components used for assembly
  • Figure 128: Li-ion cell production process
  • Figure 129: Electrode production process
  • Figure 130: Cell assembly process
  • Figure 131: Module assembly - manufacturing process
  • Figure 132: Pack assembly - manufacturing process
  • Figure 133: The structure of the Blade Battery from cell to pack
  • Figure 134: Nail penetration test: comparison of NCM, LFP standard, and LFP blade battery
  • Figure 135: Schematic representation of a) conventional liquid electrolyte Li-ion battery and b) solid-state Li-ion battery
  • Figure 136: Development of batteries and energy density change
  • Figure 137: Schematic showing the Li stripping/plating process
  • Figure 138: Correlations among the different challenges in the Li metal anode
  • Figure 139: Partnerships between solid-state battery makers and automakers
  • Figure 140: Chinese developers of solid-state batteries
  • Figure 141: Schematic of potential closed loop all-solid-state battery direct recycling process
  • Figure 142: Number of patent applications with mentions of H01M subclass, 1980-2020
  • Figure 143: H01M4 group patents filing geographical distribution, 2000-2019
  • Figure 144: H01M10 group patents filing geographical distribution, 2000-2019
  • Figure 145: Top assignees mentioned in H01M-4 patent group, 2000-2020
  • Figure 146: Geographic distribution of patent application by assignee headquarter location, 2000-2020
  • Figure 147: Top assignees mentioned in H01M-10 patent group, 2000-2020
  • Figure 148: Geographic distribution of patent application by assignee headquarter location, 2000-2020
  • Figure 149: Top assignees mentioned in H01M4/525, H01M4/131, H01M4/505, H01M4/5825, H01M4/136, H01M4/525, H01M4/485 subgroups, 2000-2020
  • Figure 150: Geographic distribution of patent application by assignee headquarter location, 2000-2020
  • Figure 151: Most frequently mentioned elements in patents description, 2000-2020
  • Figure 152: Market shares of cathode in Li-ion portable electronics batteries, 2020
  • Figure 153: Installed battery capacity by end-use applications in portable electronics, 2000-2020
  • Figure 154: Smartphone sales and weighted battery size, 2015-2020
  • Figure 155:Average smartphone battery capacity and screen size, 2010-2020
  • Figure 156: Smartphone average volume and screen diagonal by technology, 2019-2021
  • Figure 157: Laptop battery distribution, 2010-2020
  • Figure 158: Forecast portable electronics, 2020-2030
  • Figure 159: Forecast portable electronics, 2020-2030
  • Figure 160: Battery chemistries share in power applications, 2000-2020
  • Figure 161: Market shares of cathode materials in Li-ion power application batteries, 2020
  • Figure 162: Power application sales, 2005-2020
  • Figure 163: Power applications sales, 2000-2020
  • Figure 164: Forecast power devices, 2020-2030
  • Figure 165: Forecast power applications sales, 2020-2030
  • Figure 166: Battery chemistries share in motive applications, 2000-2020
  • Figure 167: Motive cathode chemistries, 2020
  • Figure 168: Sales in motive applications, 2000-2020
  • Figure 169: Motive applications sales, 2000-2020
  • Figure 170: Forecast motive applications, 2020-2030
  • Figure 171: Forecast motive applications, 2020-2030
  • Figure 172: Historic cumulative ESS installations by technology, 2000-2020
  • Figure 173: Cumulative ESS installations by technology (Ex. Pumped hydro), 2000-2020
  • Figure 174: ESS capacity distribution of all projects in DOE database, 1940-2020
  • Figure 175: Maturity curve for energy storage technologies
  • Figure 176: Comparison of volumetric and gravimetric energy densities by technology
  • Figure 177: Comparison of power and energy densities by technology
  • Figure 178: Duration (discharge time) & rated power by ESS technology
  • Figure 179: Real usage of an electrochemical ESS system
  • Figure 180: Comparison of lifetimes and cycle life
  • Figure 181: Energy Applications for ESS devices
  • Figure 182: Energy applications for ESS systems. All storage technologies, 1980-2020
  • Figure 183: Energy applications for Li-ion ESS systems, 2008-2020
  • Figure 184: Grid-ESS new installations by electro-chemical technology, 2010-2020
  • Figure 185: Off-grid ESS new installations by electro-chemical technology, 2008-2020
  • Figure 186: Expected service life of the electro-chemical ESS
  • Figure 187: Market share of electro-chemical developers
  • Figure 188: Outlook for new energy capacity, 2020-2030
  • Figure 189: Outlook for electro-chemical ESS in grid/off-grid applications
  • Figure 190: ESS electro-chemical technology outlook, grid and off-grid
  • Figure 191: ESS outlook by electro-chemical technology in 2030 (% GWh), a) Grid, b) Off-grid
  • Figure 192: Levels of automotive electrification
  • Figure 193: Battery position in Mitsubishi i-MiEV
  • Figure 194: Renault Zoe battery pack, 2011
  • Figure 195: Nissan Leaf second-generation battery pack
  • Figure 196: VW's MEB platform
  • Figure 197: BYD Blade battery
  • Figure 198: Structural batteries presented by Tesla
  • Figure 199: Speed of adoption for different technologies
  • Figure 200: Average car trip distance in selected European nations, 2012
  • Figure 201: Correlation between range and specific battery capacity for BEVs
  • Figure 202: Electricity consumption scenarios in the UK with high EV share, 2010-2050
  • Figure 203: Total vehicle sales, 2010-2020
  • Figure 204: Total vehicle sales (ICE+xEV), Jan 2019- Apr 2021
  • Figure 205: Regional vehicle sales Y-o-Y change, 2020-2021
  • Figure 206: Total vehicle sales, 2005-2020
  • Figure 207: Regional breakdown of vehicle sales, 2005-2020
  • Figure 208: Plug-in EV sales by region, 2019-2021
  • Figure 209: Plug-in EV penetration by region, 2019-2020
  • Figure 210: Top ten countries with highest plug-in EV penetration, 2019-2021
  • Figure 211: Plug-in EV sales in regional split, 2019-2020
  • Figure 212: Plug-in EV sales by carmaker group, 2020
  • Figure 213: Share of cathode chemistries in passenger and commercial EVs,2010-2020
  • Figure 214: Forecast sales of passenger plug-in electric vehicles, 2010-2030
  • Figure 215: Forecast sales of plug-in passenger cars by region, 2020-2030
  • Figure 216: Outlook for global passenger vehicle electrification, 2020-2030
  • Figure 217: Forecast weighted average battery capacity by powertrain type, 2010-2030
  • Figure 218: Forecast sales of battery requirements by vehicle category, 2020-2030
  • Figure 219: Forecast cathode chemistries in passenger and commercial EVs, 2010-2030
  • Figure 220: Forecast cathode chemistries in passenger and commercial EVs, 2010-2030
  • Figure 221: Forecast cathode chemistry in batteries for EVs in China, 2021-2030
  • Figure 222: Forecast cathode chemistry in batteries for EVs in Europe, 2020-2030
  • Figure 223: Low scenario battery demand, 2020-2030
  • Figure 224: High scenario battery demand, 2020-2030
  • Figure 225: Global pre-processing capacity of Li-ion batteries in 2025
  • Figure 226: Global materials recovery capacity of Li-ion batteries in 2025
  • Figure 227: Commercial processes for Li-ion battery recycling
  • Figure 228: Process diagram of a generic pyrometallurgical recycling process
  • Figure 229: Process diagram of a generic hydrometallurgical recycling process
  • Figure 230: Li-ion battery demand, EOL (End-of-life) and recycling, 2020-2030
  • Figure 231: Li-ion batteries reaching EOL by application, 2020-2030
  • Figure 232: Forecast of potentially recycled Li-ion battery materials, 2020-2030
  • Figure 233: Forecast of potentially recycled lithium (LCE) by Li-ion battery chemistry, 2020-2030
  • Figure 234: Forecast of potentially recycled cobalt by Li-ion battery chemistry, 2020-2030
  • Figure 235: Forecast of potentially recycled nickel by Li-ion battery chemistry, 2020-2030
  • Figure 236: Forecast of potentially recycled manganese by Li-ion battery chemistry, 2020-2030
  • Figure 237: UN Sustainable Development Goals
  • Figure 238: Roskill's ESG framework
  • Figure 239: Life cycle of a vehicle
  • Figure 240: Life cycle emissions of gasoline vehicle and average electric vehicle in Europe in 2020
  • Figure 241: Breakdown of emissions of BEVs and ICE vehicles in production and use stage
  • Figure 242: Breakdown of CO2 equivalent emissions in EV production
  • Figure 243: CO2 emission over the lifetime of vehicles
  • Figure 244: Breakdown of CO2 equivalent emissions in battery pack production
  • Figure 245: Lifecycle CO2 equivalent emissions of electricity generation methods
  • Figure 246: Regional electricity generation by fuel percentage in 2019
  • Figure 247: CO2 equivalent emissions of manufacturing a NCM111 battery pack
  • Figure 248: CO2 equivalent emissions of manufacturing LFP, NCM, NCA batteries
  • Figure 249: Breakdown of CO2 equivalent emissions of Li-ion battery raw materials
  • Figure 250: Breakdown of CO2 equivalent emissions of producing NCM cathode
  • Figure 251: Breakdown of CO2 equivalent emissions of producing BEV (best case) with 50kWh battery pack
  • Figure 252: Breakdown of CO2 equivalent emissions of producing BEV (base case) with 50 kWh battery pack
  • Figure 253: Outlook for CO2 equivalent emissions of producing EV Li-ion batteries in China, 2021-2030
  • Figure 254: Outlook for CO2 equivalent emissions of producing EV Li-ion batteries in Europe, 2021-2030
  • Figure 255: Outlook for CO2 equivalent emissions of producing EV Li-ion batteries in North America, 2021-2030
目次

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The sustainable supply of lithium-ion batteries has become a key strategic industry, supporting the supply chains for international automotive, energy storage and portable electronics companies. Major regional economies are focussed on developing regional production centres for Li-ion batteries, with Li-ion battery facilities operating or planned in 19 countries globally.

In the coming years, the automotive industry is forecast to increase its dominance of Li-ion battery demand, accounting for in excess of 80% total global battery capacity by 2030. With automotive OEMs investing heavily in EV manufacturing capability, research and development, sales of EVs are expected to approach 24% market share of automotive sales by 2030. Regional and national legislation continues to push the industry towards electrification to meet emissions targets, though OEMs are being assigned greater responsibility over ensuring the raw materials and components used in products are sourced sustainably, which has the potential to cause disruption at multiple stages of the supply chain.

Experts will answer your questions:

  • Who are the main producers of Li-ion battery cells and pack?
  • How is demand for Li-ion batteries forecast to grow and in which end-use markets?
  • How do Li-ion battery requirements change in-between end-use markets?
  • What impact will novel technologies have on the existing Li-ion battery industry?
  • How will government and industry regulation impact the lithium-ion industry?
  • What is the patent landscape for Li-ion battery cell and pack technologies?
  • How is global Gigafactory capacity expected to develop to 2030?
  • How will sustainability and ESG factors impact Li-ion battery production and demand?

Table of Contents

1. Executive summary

  • 1.1. Markets for Li-ion batteries
  • 1.2. Supply of Li-ion batteries
  • 1.3. Raw materials demand
  • 1.4. Cost of production
  • 1.5. Outlook for Li-ion batteries
  • 1.6. Vertical integration feature of cell manufacturers
  • 1.7. Battery technology

2. Li-ion battery flowchart

3. Supply of Lithium-ion batteries

  • 3.1. Introduction to the battery industry
  • 3.2. Production of Li-ion cells
    • 3.2.1. Introduction
    • 3.2.2. Complications to manufacture Li-ion cells
    • 3.2.3. Market leaders by capacity
    • 3.2.4. Geographic analysis
      • 3.2.4.1. Asia
      • 3.2.4.2. Europe
      • 3.2.4.3. North America
    • 3.2.5. Gigafactories: a new manufacturing paradigm
      • 3.2.5.1. Capacity
      • 3.2.5.2. Economies of scale, modular design, and construction time
      • 3.2.5.3. Cost of Gigafactories
      • 3.2.5.4. Private and public cumulative investments
      • 3.2.5.5. Industrial policy support
  • 3.3. Regional self-sufficiency of Li-ion battery production for Electric vehicles

4. Vertical integration feature of cell manufacturers

  • 4.1. Cell to cell components backward integration
  • 4.2. Cell to battery pack forward integration
  • 4.3. EV to cell backward integration of OEMs

5. Markets for Li-ion batteries

  • 5.1. End-use of Li-ion batteries by application
    • 5.1.1. Competing technologies
    • 5.1.2. Li-ion batteries in portable electronics
    • 5.1.3. Li-ion batteries in power applications
    • 5.1.4. Li-ion batteries in motive applications
    • 5.1.5. Li-ion batteries in ESS
    • 5.1.6. Li-ion batteries in automotive uses
  • 5.2. Li-ion batteries in automotive by region
  • 5.3. Use of Li-ion batteries in the value chain

6. Raw material demand in Li-ion batteries

  • 6.1. Aluminium
    • 6.1.1. Aluminium in the Li-ion battery industry
    • 6.1.2. Aluminium supply and demand
    • 6.1.3. Aluminium prices
  • 6.2. Cobalt
    • 6.2.1. Cobalt in the Li-ion battery industry
    • 6.2.2. Cobalt supply and demand
    • 6.2.3. Cobalt prices
  • 6.3. Copper
    • 6.3.1. Copper in the Li-ion battery industry
    • 6.3.2. Copper supply and demand
    • 6.3.3. Copper prices
  • 6.4. Graphite
    • 6.4.1. Graphite in the Li-ion battery industry
    • 6.4.2. Graphite supply and demand
    • 6.4.3. Graphite prices
  • 6.5. Lithium
    • 6.5.1. Lithium in the Li-ion battery industry
    • 6.5.2. Lithium supply and demand
    • 6.5.3. Lithium prices
  • 6.6. Manganese
    • 6.6.1. Manganese in the Li-ion battery industry
    • 6.6.2. Manganese sulphate supply and demand
    • 6.6.3. Manganese prices
  • 6.7. Nickel
    • 6.7.1. Nickel supply and demand
    • 6.7.2. Nickel prices

7. Costs, value and margins

  • 7.1. Li-ion battery cost structure
    • 7.1.1. Cost structure of cell processing
    • 7.1.2. Cost structure of module & pack assembly
  • 7.2. Influence factors for cost down
    • 7.2.1. Evolution of cathode and anode materials
    • 7.2.2. Innovation on module and pack assembly
    • 7.2.3. Scale economies of Gigafactories
  • 7.3. Outlook for costs
    • 7.3.1. Outlook for raw materials
    • 7.3.2. Outlook for cell costs
    • 7.3.3. Outlook for pack costs

8. Outlook for lithium-ion batteries

  • 8.1. Outlook for market development
    • 8.1.1. Outlook for portable electronics applications
    • 8.1.2. Outlook for power applications
    • 8.1.3. Outlook for motive applications
    • 8.1.4. Outlook for ESS applications
    • 8.1.5. Outlook for automotive applications

9. Lithium-ion battery technology

  • 9.1. Li-ion batteries construction
    • 9.1.1. Anatomy of a Li-ion battery cell: an outline
    • 9.1.2. Battery cell formats
    • 9.1.3. Battery modules and packs
  • 9.2. Manufacturing processes and the value chain
    • 9.2.1. Raw materials to partly processed materials
    • 9.2.2. Cell components manufacturing
    • 9.2.3. Cell production
    • 9.2.4. Battery module/pack manufacturing
  • 9.3. Solid-state batteries
    • 9.3.1. Background of solid-state batteries
    • 9.3.2. Introduction to solid-state batteries
    • 9.3.3. Types of solid-state electrolytes
      • 9.3.3.1. Inorganic solid electrolytes
      • 9.3.3.2. Polymer and composite solid electrolytes
      • 9.3.3.3. Thin-film electrolytes
    • 9.3.4. Technology approach
      • 9.3.4.1. Advantages of solid-state batteries
      • 9.3.4.2. Challenges of solid-state batteries
  • 9.4. Commercial approach
  • 9.5. Trends in patent activity related to Li-ion batteries
    • 9.5.1. Summary
    • 9.5.2. Introduction
    • 9.5.3. Main trends
      • 9.5.3.1. Battery electrodes
      • 9.5.3.2. Cell level
    • 9.5.4. Most common battery technologies
      • 9.5.4.1. NCM, NCA, LFP, LCO, LMO, LTO

10. Portable electronics demand

  • 10.1. Background/summary
  • 10.2. Cathode chemistries in portable electronics Li-ion batteries
  • 10.3. Market trends
    • 10.3.1. Smartphones
    • 10.3.2. Laptops
    • 10.3.3. Other segments
  • 10.4. Outlook

11. Power applications for lithium-ion batteries

  • 11.1. Applications for power devices
  • 11.2. Competing technologies in power applications
  • 11.3. Market trends in power
  • 11.4. Outlook for Li-ion batteries in power

12. Motive applications for lithium-ion batteries

  • 12.1. Applications for motive devices
  • 12.2. Competing technologies in motive
  • 12.3. Market trends in motive
  • 12.4. Outlook for Li-ion batteries in motive

13. Energy storage applications for Li-ion batteries

  • 13.1. Introduction to the ESS market
  • 13.2. Competing ESS technologies
    • 13.2.1. ESS technologies and their definitions
    • 13.2.2. Choice among ESS technologies
  • 13.3. Energy applications of ESS devices
  • 13.4. Market for electro-chemical (and Li-ion) ESS
  • 13.5. Outlook for electro-chemical ESS
    • 13.5.1. Methodology and outlook
    • 13.5.2. Outlook by ESS technology

14. Automotive applications and EV demand

  • 14.1. Background
    • 14.1.1. Types of electric vehicles
      • 14.1.1.1. Hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs)
      • 14.1.1.2. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)
      • 14.1.1.3. Battery electric vehicles (BEVs)
      • 14.1.1.4. Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEVs)
    • 14.1.2. Powertrain evolution
      • 14.1.2.1. Retrofitted electric vehicles
      • 14.1.2.2. Evolution of battery pack design in battery electric vehicles
      • 14.1.2.3. "Skateboard" concept
      • 14.1.2.4. Blade batteries/ Cell to Pack/ Cell to Chassis
      • 14.1.2.5. Structural batteries
    • 14.1.3. Government electrification goals
    • 14.1.4. Auto OEM electrification plans
    • 14.1.5. Main challenges in electrification
      • 14.1.5.1. Range anxiety
      • 14.1.5.2. Issues with electricity generation
  • 14.2. Recent trends
    • 14.2.1. Recent trends in the automotive market
    • 14.2.2. Recent trends in the market for electric vehicles
    • 14.2.3. Recent trends in cathode materials
  • 14.3. Outlook for electric vehicles
    • 14.3.1. Basic methodology
    • 14.3.2. Forecast growth in battery requirements
    • 14.3.3. Forecast changes in battery chemistry and performance
    • 14.3.4. Scenarios for automotive demand
      • 14.3.4.1. Expected material shortages
      • 14.3.4.2. Expedited EV penetration

15. Forecast recycling and secondary supply of batteries

  • 15.1. Li-ion battery recycling overview
    • 15.1.1. Benefits of recycling Li-ion batteries
    • 15.1.2. Challenges of recycling Li-ion batteries
  • 15.2. Li-ion battery recycling process
    • 15.2.1. Sorting
    • 15.2.2. Pre-treatment
    • 15.2.3. Materials separation & metal recovery
      • 15.2.3.1. Pyrometallurgical processing
      • 15.2.3.2. Hydrometallurgical processing
  • 15.3. Market landscape
    • 15.3.1. General overview
    • 15.3.2. Market participants
  • 15.4. Forecast recycling of Li-ion cells

16. Sustainability

  • 16.1. Evolution of a sustainable mindset in EV industry
  • 16.2. Life cycle analysis comparison of BEV and ICE vehicle
    • 16.2.1. Life cycle analysis
    • 16.2.2. Life cycle analysis comparison of BEV and ICE vehicle
  • 16.3. CO2 footprint of the Li-ion battery value chain
  • 16.4. CO2 footprint of the Li-ion battery raw materials
  • 16.5. Options for reducing CO2 footprint
  • 16.6. Outlook for CO2 emissions from EV battery production

17. Company profiles

  • 17.1. CATL
  • 17.2. LG Chem
  • 17.3. Panasonic
  • 17.4. BYD
  • 17.5. Samsung SDI
  • 17.6. SK Innovation
  • 17.7. CALB
  • 17.8. Guoxuan
  • 17.9. AESC
  • 17.10. PEVE
  • 17.11. EVE
  • 17.12. Lishen
  • 17.13. Rept
  • 17.14. Farasis
  • 17.15. Svolt
  • 17.16. Northvolt
  • 17.17. BAK
  • 17.18. Coslight
  • 17.19. Microvast
  • 17.20. Tafel
  • 17.21. Wangxiang 123

18. Macroeconomic outlook