表紙:ニッケルの2030年までの見通し(第17版)
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ニッケルの2030年までの見通し(第17版)

Nickel Outlook to 2030, 17th Edition

出版日: | 発行: Roskill - A Wood Mackenzie Business | ページ情報: 英文 | 納期: 即日から翌営業日

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ニッケルの2030年までの見通し(第17版)
出版日: 2021年04月22日
発行: Roskill - A Wood Mackenzie Business
ページ情報: 英文
納期: 即日から翌営業日
  • 全表示
  • 概要
  • 図表
  • 目次
概要

2020年のニッケル市場は、COVID-19パンデミックによる世界的な景気後退の影響を強く受けました。ウイルスの拡散を遅らせるために世界各地でロックダウン措置がとられ、その結果、ニッケル製品の最終需要が減少しました。需要への影響にもかかわらず、ニッケルの供給は比較的影響を受けず、2020年には4%の成長が見込まれています。これのほとんどはインドネシアからの精製ニッケルの供給が急増したことによるものです。その結果、ニッケル市場は4年ぶりに黒字に転換しました。

一次ニッケルの消費量は過去10年間に渡り堅調に増加してきましたが、2020年にはCOVID-19の蔓延により世界金融危機(GFC)以来初めて需要が前年比で減少しました。ステンレス鋼の需要は当初、COVID-19の蔓延を緩和するために繰り返されたロックダウンによる混乱の影響を受け、建設業や接客業に悪影響を及ぼしました。航空分野と自動車分野の大幅な落ち込みにより、それぞれニッケル合金と鋳造品のニッケル需要が減少しました。

当レポートは、世界のニッケル市場について調査しており、ニッケルの需要と供給、貿易、コストや価格、市場の動向や見通し、競合情勢、主要企業のプロファイルなどの情報を提供しています。

目次

第1章 エグゼクティブサマリー

  • ニッケル市場概要
  • ニッケル需要
  • ニッケル供給
  • ニッケル貿易
  • 見通し

第2章 ニッケルフローチャート

第3章 世界の生産

  • ニッケルの鉱山生産
  • ニッケル中間体製品の製造
  • ニッケルの精製生産
    • 国別生産
    • プロセス別生産
    • タイプ別生産
    • ニッケルのトップ生産者
  • ニッケルのリサイクル
    • 冶金用途におけるニッケルのリサイクル
    • 電池中のニッケルのリサイクル

第4章 製造コスト

  • ニッケルの製造コスト
  • 生産コストの動向
    • 鉱石価格
    • 電力コスト
    • 製品別の金属
    • 為替相場
    • 人件費
    • 輸送費
  • ニッケルプロジェクト分析

第5章 世界の消費

  • ニッケルの直接使用
    • 用途別最初の使用
    • 形状別一次ニッケル消費量
  • 地域別の一次消費

第6章 国際貿易

  • ニッケル鉱石および精鉱
  • ニッケル中間体
    • ニッケルマット
    • 酸化ニッケルと焼結物
  • フェロニッケル
  • 合金化されていない未加工のニッケル金属
  • ニッケル粉末とフレーク
  • ニッケル薬品
    • 硫酸ニッケル
    • 酸化ニッケルと水酸化物
  • ニッケル市場に影響を与える関税およびその他の要因

第7章 価格

  • ニッケルの価格
  • 精製ニッケルの価格
  • ニッケル鉱の価格
  • ニッケル中間体の価格
  • NPIの価格
  • 硫酸ニッケルの価格

第8章 展望

  • 需要の見通し
    • ステンレス鋼
    • 合金鋼および鋳物
    • 非鉄合金
    • バッテリー
    • メッキ
    • 他の用途でのニッケル消費
    • ニッケルのタイプ別需要見通し
    • 国別のニッケル消費の見通し
  • 供給の見通し
    • 主な動向
    • 新規プロジェクトの概要
    • 供給のベースケースの見通し
  • 一次洗練された市場バランスのベースケースの見通し
  • 価格のベースケースの見通し
    • インドネシアのNPI供給の影響
    • インドネシアのHPALプロジェクト開発のインセンティブ価格
    • ニッケル価格の分岐
    • ベースケースのニッケル価格予測
    • 価格予測のリスク要因
  • 代替の見通し
    • 需要増加
    • 需要減少

第9章 背景

  • 歴史
  • プロパティ
    • 健康と環境の問題
  • 発生
    • 硫化鉱
    • ラテライト鉱石
  • 埋蔵量と資源
    • 世界の準備金
    • 世界資源
  • ニッケルの加工
    • 乾式製錬処理
    • 湿式製錬処理

第10章 持続可能性

  • 環境、社会、ガバナンス(ESG)
    • 環境
    • ソーシャル
    • ガバナンス
  • 重要な原材料
  • 責任ある調達イニシアチブ
    • 経済協力開発機構(OECD)
    • LMEレッドフラッグ評価スキーム
    • 世界のレポーティングイニシアチブ
    • 責任ある鉱業指数
    • 責任あるソーシングブロックチェーンネットワーク(RSBN)
    • 責任ある鉱業保証のためのイニシアチブ
    • 責任ある鉄鋼スチュワードシップイニシアチブ

第11章 国別プロファイル

  • アルバニア
  • アルゼンチン
  • オーストラリア
  • オーストリア
  • ベルギー
  • ボツワナ
  • ブラジル
  • カメルーン
  • カナダ
  • 中国
    • 鉱山生産
    • クラスIニッケル生産
    • クラスIIニッケル生産
  • コロンビア
  • キューバ
  • キプロス
  • ドミニカ共和国
  • フィンランド
  • フランス
  • ドイツ
  • ギリシャ
  • グアテマラ
  • インド
  • インドネシア
    • インドネシアのニッケル鉱石の輸出
    • インドネシアでの精製ニッケルの生産
    • インドネシアでの中間製品の生産
  • コートジボワール
  • 日本
  • カザフスタン
  • コソボ
  • 北マケドニア
  • マダガスカル
  • マラウイ
  • ミャンマー
  • ニューカレドニア
  • ノルウェー
  • パプアニューギニア
  • フィリピン
  • ポーランド
  • ロシア
  • 南アフリカ
  • 韓国
  • スペイン
  • スウェーデン
  • 台湾
  • タンザニア
  • タイ
  • トルコ
  • ウクライナ
  • 英国
  • 米国
  • ベネズエラ
  • ベトナム
  • ザンビア
  • ジンバブエ

第12章 企業プロファイル

  • Anglo American
    • ブラジル
    • 南アフリカとジンバブエ
  • BHP Nickel West
  • Eramet
    • フランス
    • ニューカレドニア
    • インドネシア
  • Glencore
    • オーストラリア
    • カナダ
    • ノルウェー
    • ニューカレドニア
  • Jinchuan Group Limited (JNMC)
  • Nornickel
    • MMC Kola
    • Polar Division
    • Harjavalta
  • PT Antam
  • Sumitomo Metal Mining (SMM)
    • 日本
    • フィリピン
  • Tsingshan
  • Vale
    • ブラジル
    • カナダ
    • インドネシア
    • 日本
    • ニューカレドニア
    • 英国

第13章 初回使用別消費

  • ステンレス鋼
    • ステンレス鋼のタイプ
    • ステンレス鋼の見かけの消費
    • ステンレス鋼の生産
    • ステンレス鋼スクラップ
    • ステンレス鋼の最終用途
    • ステンレス鋼の見通し
    • ステンレス鋼中のニッケルの見通し
  • 合金鋼および鋳物
    • 合金鋼のタイプ
    • 合金鋼と鋳造の見通し
  • 非鉄合金
    • 非鉄合金のタイプ
    • 高性能合金
    • 特殊性能合金
    • 一般的な工業用合金
    • 非鉄合金の見通し
  • メッキ
    • 使用するニッケルタイプ
    • メッキのタイプ
    • 工業用ニッケルメッキおよびコーティングの用途
    • めっきの見通し
  • バッテリー
    • 電池中のニッケルの見通し
    • 電池業界の概要
    • リチウムイオンバリューチェーン
    • 主な化学の概要
    • カソードの材料組成
    • 化学の概要と展望
    • 自動車市場
    • エネルギー貯蔵
    • ポータブルエレクトロニクス
    • 電力&モーティブアプリケーション
  • その他のアプリケーション

第14章 マクロ経済の見通し

図表

List of Tables

  • Table 1: Nickel mine production by country, 2014-2020
  • Table 2: Production of refined nickel by country, 2014-2020
  • Table 3: Production of refined nickel by type, 2014-2020
  • Table 4: Major primary refined nickel producers, 2020
  • Table 5: nickel consumption by the stainless steel industry, 2014-2020
  • Table 6: Primary nickel consumption by application, 2014-2020
  • Table 7: Primary nickel consumption by application and form, 2014-2020
  • Table 8: Primary refined nickel consumption by region, 2014-2020
  • Table 9: Exports of nickel ores and concentrates: 2014-2020
  • Table 10: Imports of nickel ores and concentrates: 2014-2020
  • Table 11: Exports of nickel matte: 2014-2020
  • Table 12: Imports of nickel matte: 2014-2020
  • Table 13: Exports of nickel oxides and sinters, 2014-2020
  • Table 14: Imports of nickel oxides and sinters, 2014-2020
  • Table 15: Exports of ferronickel, 2014-2020
  • Table 16: Imports of ferronickel, 2014-2020
  • Table 17: Exports of nickel metal, 2014-2020
  • Table 18: Imports of nickel metal, 2014-2020
  • Table 19: Exports of nickel powders and flakes, 2014-2020
  • Table 20: Imports of nickel powders and flakes, 2014-2020
  • Table 21: Exports of nickel sulphate, 2014-2020
  • Table 22: Imports of nickel sulphate, 2014-2020
  • Table 23: Exports of nickel oxides and hydroxides, 2014-2020
  • Table 24: Imports of nickel oxides and hydroxides, 2014-2020
  • Table 25: China: Import tariff on nickel products, 2021
  • Table 26: LME-approved nickel brands
  • Table 27: LME-approved warehouse locations
  • Table 28: SHFE-approved nickel brands
  • Table 29: LME average nickel cash price, Q1 2013-Q4 2020
  • Table 30: Primary nickel consumption by application 2020-2030
  • Table 31: Forecast crude stainless steel production, 2020-2030
  • Table 32: Forecast nickel use by the stainless steel industry, 2020-2030
  • Table 33: Forecast primary nickel use by the alloy steels and castings industries, 2020-2030
  • Table 34: Forecast primary nickel use by the non-ferrous alloys industries, 2020-2030
  • Table 35: Nickel use batteries by battery type and by use, 2020-2030
  • Table 36: Source of nickel consumed in batteries, 2019-2029
  • Table 37: Forecast primary nickel use by the plating industry, 2020-2030
  • Table 38: Forecast primary nickel use by other industries, 2020-2030
  • Table 39: Outlook for nickel demand by type and application 2020-2030
  • Table 40: Primary nickel consumption by country, 2020-2030
  • Table 41: Outlook for nickel mine production from potential new projects and restarts, 2021-2030
  • Table 42: Outlook for intermediate production from potential new projects, 2021-2030
  • Table 43: Outlook for refined nickel production from potential new projects and restarts, 2021-2030
  • Table 44: Outlook for nickel mine production, by country, 2020-2030
  • Table 45: Outlook for intermediate production of nickel, by country, 2020-2030
  • Table 46: Outlook for refined nickel supply by type, 2020-2030
  • Table 47: Outlook for production of refined nickel, 2021-2030
  • Table 48: Base case outlook for primary supply, demand and market balance, 2020-2030
  • Table 49: Base case price forecast for LME cash prices: 2020-2030
  • Table 50: Primary nickel consumption under upside scenario, 2020-2030
  • Table 51: Primary nickel market balance under base case and upside scenario, 2020-2030
  • Table 52: Upside scenario price forecast for LME cash prices: 2020-2030
  • Table 53: Market balance under base case and downside scenario, 2020-2030
  • Table 54: Downside scenario price forecast for LME cash prices: 2020-2030
  • Table 55: Selected properties of nickel
  • Table 56: Nickel-containing minerals
  • Table 57: World estimated nickel reserves, early 2021
  • Table 58: Nickel mine production vs Human Freedom Index
  • Table 59: Nickel mine production vs Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index
  • Table 60: Nickel mine production vs World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index
  • Table 61: Critical raw materials identified by key Government bodies
  • Table 62: Responsible sourcing initiatives and policies, 2021
  • Table 63: OECD Due Diligence Guidance for minerals - 5-Step Framework for Upstream and Downstream Supply Chains
  • Table 64: Albania: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 65: Albania: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 66: Australia: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 67: Australia: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 68: Australia: Details of advanced projects, 2021
  • Table 69: Australia: List of early-stage projects
  • Table 70: Austria: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 71: Austria: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 72: Belgium: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 73: Belgium: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 74: Botswana: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 75: Botswana: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 76: Brazil: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 77: Brazil: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 78: Brazil: Details of projects
  • Table 79: Canada: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 80: Canada: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 81: Canada: Details of advanced projects
  • Table 82: Canada: List of early-stage projects
  • Table 83: China: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 84: China: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 85: China: Details of NPI projects
  • Table 86: Colombia: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 87: Colombia: South32 resources and reserves
  • Table 88: Colombia: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 89: Cuba: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 90: Cuba: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 91: Dominican Republic: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 92: Dominican Republic: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 93: Finland: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 94: Finland: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 95: Finland: List of early-stage projects
  • Table 96: France: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 97: France: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 98: Germany: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 99: Greece: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 100: Greece: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 101: Guatemala: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 102: Guatemala: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 103: India: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 104: India: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 105: Indonesia: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 106: Indonesia: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 107: Indonesia: Details of NPI/ferronickel projects
  • Table 108: Indonesia: Details of intermediate and battery-grade nickel projects
  • Table 109: Ivory Coast: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 110: Ivory Coast: Details of projects
  • Table 111: Japan: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 112: Japan: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 113: Kosovo: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 114: Kosovo: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 115: North Macedonia: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 116: North Macedonia: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 117: Madagascar: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 118: Madagascar: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 119: Myanmar: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 120: Myanmar: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 121: New Caledonia mining districts
  • Table 122: New Caledonia: mines
  • Table 123: New Caledonia: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 124: New Caledonia: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 125: Norway: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 126: Norway: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 127: Papua New Guinea: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 128: Papua New Guinea: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 129: Papua New Guinea: Details of projects
  • Table 130: Philippines: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 131: Philippines: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 132: Philippines: Details of projects
  • Table 133: Poland: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 134: Russia: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 135: Russia: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 136: Russia: Details of projects
  • Table 137: South Africa: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 138: South Africa: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 139: South Korea: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 140: South Korea: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 141: Spain: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 142: Spain: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 143: Sweden: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 144: Taiwan: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 145: Taiwan: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 146: Tanzania: List of early-stage projects
  • Table 147: Thailand: Details of projects
  • Table 148: Turkey: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 149: Turkey: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 150: Turkey: Details of projects
  • Table 151: Ukraine: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 152: Ukraine: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 153: United Kingdom: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 154: United Kingdom: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 155: USA: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 156: USA: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 157: USA: Details of projects
  • Table 158: Venezuela: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 159: Vietnam: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 160: Vietnam: Details of projects
  • Table 161: Zambia: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 162: Zambia: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 163: Zimbabwe: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 164: Zimbabwe: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 165: Anglo American: Summary of operations
  • Table 166: Anglo American: Refined nickel production, 2014-2020
  • Table 167: Anglo American: Refined nickel production, Q1 2018-Q4 2020
  • Table 168: Brazil: Anglo American: Reserves and resources
  • Table 169: BHP Nickel West: Summary of operations
  • Table 170: BHP Nickel West: Refined nickel production, 2014-2020
  • Table 171: BHP Nickel West: Nickel resources
  • Table 172: BHP Nickel West: Nickel reserves
  • Table 173: BHP Nickel West: Quarterly refined nickel production, Q1 2018-Q4 2020
  • Table 174: Eramet: Summary of operations
  • Table 175: Eramet: Refined nickel production, 2014-2020
  • Table 176: Sandouville: Refined nickel production, Q1 2018-Q4 2020
  • Table 177: Glencore: Summary of operations
  • Table 178: Glencore: Refined nickel production, 2014-2020
  • Table 179: Glencore: Nickel resources
  • Table 180: Glencore: Nickel reserves
  • Table 181: Murrin Murrin: Refined nickel production, Q1 2018-Q4 2020
  • Table 182: Nikkelverk refined nickel production, Q1 2018-Q4 2020
  • Table 183: Koniambo: Refined nickel production, Q1 2018-Q4 2020
  • Table 184: JNMC: Summary of operations
  • Table 185: JNMC: Refined nickel production, 2014-2020
  • Table 186: Nornickel: Summary of operations
  • Table 187: Nornickel: Production of refined nickel, 2014-2020
  • Table 188: Nornickel MMC Kola mining assets
  • Table 189: Nornickel Polar Division mining assets
  • Table 190: Nornickel: Nickel reserves
  • Table 191: Nornickel: Nickel resources
  • Table 192: PT Antam: Summary of operations
  • Table 193: PT Antam: Nickel production, 2014-2020
  • Table 194: PT Antam: Quarterly refined nickel production, Q1 2018-Q4 2020
  • Table 195: PT Antam: Nickel reserves
  • Table 196: PT Antam: Nickel resources
  • Table 197: PT Antam: Gag Nickel reserves
  • Table 198: PT Antam: Gag Nickel resources
  • Table 199: SMM: Summary of operations
  • Table 200: Vale: Summary of operations
  • Table 201: Vale: Refined nickel production, 2014-2020
  • Table 202: Vale: nickel intermediates production, 2014-2020
  • Table 203: Vale proven and probable reserves
  • Table 204: Onça Puma quarterly ferronickel production, Q1 2018-Q4 2020
  • Table 205: Vale refined nickel production in Canada, Q1 2018-Q4 2020
  • Table 206: Clydach quarterly refined nickel production, Q1 2018-Q4 2020
  • Table 207: Primary nickel consumption by first use, 2014-2020
  • Table 208: Nickel consumption in stainless steel, 2014-2020
  • Table 209: Nickel consumption in stainless steel, 2020-2030
  • Table 210: Production of crude stainless steel by region, 2014-2020
  • Table 211: net imports of stainless steel scrap
  • Table 212: Stainless steel apparent consumption forecast, 2020-2030
  • Table 213: Forecast crude stainless steel production, 2020-2030
  • Table 214: Nickel consumption in alloy steels & castings, 2014-2020
  • Table 215: Primary nickel consumption in alloy steels and castings, 2020-2030
  • Table 216: Primary nickel consumption in non-ferrous alloys, 2014-2020
  • Table 217: Primary nickel consumption in non-ferrous alloys, 2020-2030
  • Table 218: Nuclear reactors under construction (November 2020)
  • Table 219: Primary nickel use in plating, 2014-2020
  • Table 220: Outlook for nickel in plating, 2020-2030
  • Table 221: Estimated breakdown of nickel use in plating by end-applications
  • Table 222: Nickel consumption in batteries, 2014-2020
  • Table 223: Forecast primary nickel consumption in batteries, 2020-2030
  • Table 224: Primary nickel consumption in other applications, 2020-2030
  • Table 225: Primary nickel consumption in other applications, 2020-2030
  • Table 226: Base Case Forecast GDP for top-30 economies and regions, 2020-2031
  • Table 227: Base Case Forecast GDP growth rates for top-30 economies and regions, 2020-2031
  • Table 228: Base Case Forecast GDP per capita for top-30 economies and regions, 2020-2031
  • Table 229: Forecast population for top-30 economies and regions, 2020-2031
  • Table 230: Forecast inflation for top-30 economies and regions, 2020-2031
  • Table 231: Forecast exchange rates and energy prices, 2020-2031

List of Figures

  • Figure 1: LME nickel cash price, 1997-2020
  • Figure 2: Primary nickel market balance and LME nickel cash price, 2014-2020
  • Figure 3: Refined nickel production by class of nickel, 2014-2020
  • Figure 4: Reported nickel stocks and LME nickel cash price, Jan 2014-Feb 2021
  • Figure 5: LME daily nickel cash price, Jan 2019-Mar 2021
  • Figure 6: Primary nickel consumption by first use, 2014-2020
  • Figure 7: Primary nickel consumption by region, 2014-2020
  • Figure 8: Refined nickel production by region, 2014-2020
  • Figure 9: Refined nickel production by type, 2014-2020
  • Figure 10: Base case outlook for primary nickel market balance, 2020-2030
  • Figure 11: Outlook for market balance and prices, 2020-2030
  • Figure 12: Nickel flowchart
  • Figure 13: Nickel mine production, 2014-2020
  • Figure 14: Nickel mine production by ore type and country, 2020
  • Figure 15: Nickel mine production by ore type, 2014-2020
  • Figure 16: Production of nickel intermediates by product, 2014-2020
  • Figure 17: Production of nickel intermediates by country, 2014-2020
  • Figure 18: Production of refined nickel by country, 2014-2020
  • Figure 19: Production of refined nickel by process, 2014-2020
  • Figure 20: Production of refined nickel by type, 2010-2020
  • Figure 21: Production of electrolytic nickel by country, 2014-2020
  • Figure 22: Production of powder and briquettes by country, 2014-2020
  • Figure 23: Production of ferronickel and NPI, 2014-2020
  • Figure 24: Production of ferronickel and NPI by country, 2014-2020
  • Figure 25: Production of primary nickel sulphate by country, 2020
  • Figure 26: Scrap use in stainless steel, 2014-2020
  • Figure 27: External scrap ratios in stainless steel, 2014-2020
  • Figure 28: Use of primary versus secondary nickel in batteries, 2014-2020
  • Figure 29: Total cash and all-in sustaining cost curve for select producers, 2020
  • Figure 30: All-in sustaining cost curve for select producers by deposit type, 2020
  • Figure 31: Unit value of Philippine and Indonesian ore exports to China and LME nickel cash price. 2010-2020
  • Figure 32: Brent crude oil price, coal price and natural gas price, 2015-2020
  • Figure 33: Revenue share at nickel operations by metal, 2020
  • Figure 34: Nickel, cobalt and copper price, 2015-2020, Q1 2015=100
  • Figure 35: Exchange rates of major refined nickel producing countries, 2015-2020 (Q1 2015 = 100)
  • Figure 36; Ruble exchange rate movement, 2015-2020 (Q1 2015 = 100)
  • Figure 37: Quarterly Baltic Dry Shipping Index, 2015-2020
  • Figure 38: Nickel mining project capital intensity, 2020
  • Figure 39: Nickel project incentive price required to deliver a 20% IRR1
  • Figure 40: primary nickel consumption, 2019-2020
  • Figure 41: Primary nickel use by application and form, 2020
  • Figure 42: Refined nickel consumption by region, 2014-2020
  • Figure 43: Major exports of nickel ores and concentrates by origin and destination, 2020
  • Figure 44: Major exports of nickel matte by origin and destination, 2020
  • Figure 45: Major exports of nickel oxides and sinters by origin and destination, 2020
  • Figure 46: Major exports of ferronickel by origin and destination, 2020
  • Figure 47: Major exports of nickel powders and flakes by origin and destination, 2020
  • Figure 48: Major exports of nickel sulphate by origin and destination, 2020
  • Figure 49: LME stocks by type, 2014-2021
  • Figure 50: LME stocks and cancelled warrants, Jan 2019-Jan 2021
  • Figure 51: SHFE nickel stocks, Apr 2015-Dec 2020
  • Figure 52: Total reported stocks: Jan 2014-Feb 2020
  • Figure 53: LME nickel cash price, Jan 2000-Dec 2020
  • Figure 54: LME nickel cash-3M contango/backwardation, Jan 2019-Jan 2021
  • Figure 55: Price of nickel ores, Jan 2016-Dec 2020
  • Figure 56: Indicative nickel payability for tradeable MHP and MSP, 2014-2020
  • Figure 57: Indicative nickel payability and volume for MHP and MSP imports from China, 2014-2020
  • Figure 58: Indicative nickel payability and volume for MSP imports from Japan, 2014-2020
  • Figure 59: NPI price vs nickel metal price, Jan 2014-Dec 2020
  • Figure 60: Tradeable NPI stocks at Chinese NPI plants
  • Figure 61: Trends in the prices of nickel metal and nickel sulphate, Jan 2013-Dec 2020
  • Figure 62: China: Nickel sulphate premium over nickel metal price, Jan 2013-Dec 2020
  • Figure 63: Primary nickel consumption by application 2020-2030
  • Figure 64: Stainless steel apparent consumption forecast, 2020-2030
  • Figure 65: Forecast crude stainless steel production, 2020-2030
  • Figure 66: Forecast crude stainless steel production by grade, 2020-2030
  • Figure 67: Forecast nickel use in stainless steel by source of nickel units, 2020-2030
  • Figure 68: Oil & gas rig count and Brent crude oil price, Jan 2019-Feb 2021
  • Figure 69: Global automotive production, Q1 2019-Q4 2020
  • Figure 70: Global automotive sales, 2014-2030
  • Figure 71: Forecast demand, deliveries, and production of civilian aircraft, 2019-2030
  • Figure 72: World: Outlook for nickel use in batteries by battery type, 2020-2030
  • Figure 73: Nickel use by type of battery market, 2020-2030
  • Figure 74: Nickel consumption in batteries by share, 2020-2030
  • Figure 75: Outlook for primary nickel use in stainless steel by class of nickel, 2010-2030
  • Figure 76: Primary nickel consumption by country, 2020-2030
  • Figure 77: Historical and forecast Class II production in Indonesia, 2010-2030
  • Figure 78: Forecast new production of hydrometallurgical intermediates and nickel matte in Indonesia, 2021-2030
  • Figure 79: Forecast refined nickel production in China, 2017-2030
  • Figure 80: Outlook for nickel mine production from mining projects, 2021-2030
  • Figure 81: Outlook for nickel intermediate production from projects by product, 2021-2030
  • Figure 82: Outlook for expected nickel intermediate production from projects by country, 2021-2030
  • Figure 83: Outlook for refined nickel production from projects and restarts, 2021-2030
  • Figure 84: Outlook for nickel mine production by ore type, 2020-2030
  • Figure 85: Outlook for nickel mine production by country, 2020-2030
  • Figure 86: Outlook for intermediate production by country, 2020-2030
  • Figure 87: Outlook for intermediate production by product, 2020-2030
  • Figure 88: Outlook for refined nickel supply by type, 2020-2030
  • Figure 89: Outlook for nickel supply by country, 2020-2030
  • Figure 90: Primary nickel balance, 2014-2020
  • Figure 91: Base case outlook for primary nickel market balance, 2020-2030
  • Figure 92: Revisited: Forecast new production of hydrometallurgical intermediates and nickel matte in Indonesia, 2021-2030
  • Figure 93: Nickel project incentive price required to deliver a 20% IRR
  • Figure 94: Base case price forecast and nickel market balance, 2020-2030
  • Figure 95: Nickel market balance and price under base case and upside scenario, 2020-2030
  • Figure 96: Nickel market balance and price under base case and downside scenario, 2020-2030
  • Figure 97: Average grades of nickel sulphide ores by country
  • Figure 98: Average grades of laterite reserves by country
  • Figure 99: Simplified flowchart of main nickel production process
  • Figure 100: Typical pyro metallurgical processing of sulphide ores flowsheet
  • Figure 101: Typical pyrometallurgical processing of laterite ores flowsheet
  • Figure 102: NPI production process flowsheet
  • Figure 103: Typical hydro metallurgical processing of laterite ores flowsheet
  • Figure 104: UN Sustainable Development Goals
  • Figure 105: Roskill's ESG framework
  • Figure 106: Primary energy demand and global warming potential for nickel products
  • Figure 107: Total CO2 emissions from shipping transport of nickel sulphate feedstocks, 2020
  • Figure 108: Nickel mine production vs Human Freedom Index
  • Figure 109: Nickel mine production vs Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index
  • Figure 110: Nickel mine production vs World Bank's Ease of Doing Business
  • Figure 111: Criticality matrix
  • Figure 112: European CRM list 2020
  • Figure 113: Australia: Nickel mineral occurrences and operating mines, 2021
  • Figure 114: Australia mine, intermediate and primary production, 2014-2020
  • Figure 115: Brazil mine, intermediate and refined production, 2014-2020
  • Figure 116: Brazil: refined production, 2014-2020
  • Figure 117: Canada mine, intermediate and primary production, 2014-2020
  • Figure 118: Canada, refined nickel production, Q1 2016-Q4 2020
  • Figure 119: China mine, intermediate refined and NPI production, 2014-2020
  • Figure 120: Cuba: mine, intermediate and refined production, 2014-2020
  • Figure 121: Finland: mine, intermediate and refined production, 2014-2020
  • Figure 122: Indonesia: mine, intermediate and refined production, 2014-2020
  • Figure 123: Indonesia: Exports of nickel ores and concentrates, Q1 2010-Q4 2020
  • Figure 124: Indonesia: production of ferronickel and NPI, 2014-2020
  • Figure 125: Indonesia: production of nickel intermediates, Q1 2016-Q4 2020
  • Figure 126: New Caledonia: mine, intermediate and refined nickel production, 2014-2020
  • Figure 127: New Caledonia, refined nickel production Q1 2017-Q4 2020
  • Figure 128: Papua New Guinea: Ramu NiCo production, Q1 2017-Q4 2020
  • Figure 129: Philippines: mine and intermediate nickel production, 2011-2020
  • Figure 130: China: imports of ores and concentrates by source, 2010-2020
  • Figure 131: Philippines: production of nickel intermediates, 2014-2020
  • Figure 132: Russia: Nornickel refined production, Q1 2016-Q4 2020
  • Figure 133: Turkey: mine and intermediate production, 2014-2020
  • Figure 134: Anglo American diagram of operations
  • Figure 135: BHP Billiton diagram of operations
  • Figure 136: Glencore diagram of operations
  • Figure 137: Nornickel diagram of operations
  • Figure 138: SMM diagram of operations
  • Figure 139: Tsingshan diagram of operations
  • Figure 140: Vale diagram of operations
  • Figure 141: Primary nickel consumption by first use, 2014-2020
  • Figure 142: Forecast nickel use in stainless steel by source of units, 2014-2030
  • Figure 143: Apparent consumption of stainless steel, 2014-2020
  • Figure 144: Production of crude stainless steel by region, 2014-2020
  • Figure 145: Production of crude stainless steel by grade, 2014-2020
  • Figure 146: Global nickel content in stainless steel and scrap ratio, 2014-2020
  • Figure 147: Estimated end-use of stainless by sector, 2020
  • Figure 148: Forecast crude steel production by region, 2020-2030
  • Figure 149: Forecast crude stainless steel production by grade
  • Figure 150: Outlook for nickel contained in stainless steel and scrap ratio, 2014-2030
  • Figure 151: Primary nickel consumption in alloy steels and castings, 2014-2030
  • Figure 152: Global installed wind power capacity, 2010-2024
  • Figure 153: Primary nickel consumption in non-ferrous alloys, 2014-2030
  • Figure 154: Civilian jet aircraft deliveries: 2014-2020
  • Figure 155: Forecast demand, deliveries, and production of civilian aircraft, 2019-2030
  • Figure 156: Forecast power generation by fuel, 2020-2030
  • Figure 157: Primary nickel consumption in plating, 2014-2020
  • Figure 158: Nickel use in plating, 2014-2020
  • Figure 159: Total vehicle sales, 2020-2030
  • Figure 160: Li-ion cell structure including exterior cell components
  • Figure 161: Gravimetric Energy density at cathode level, 2020
  • Figure 162: Simplified value chain for Li-ion batteries
  • Figure 163: Crystal structure of ideal LiCoO2
  • Figure 164: Crystal structure of ideal LiMn2O4
  • Figure 165: Material composition by cathode chemistry
  • Figure 166: Cathode chemistry split, 2014-2020
  • Figure 167: Vehicle sales, 2014-2020
  • Figure 168: Passenger vehicle sales, 2014-2030
  • Figure 169: Forecast sales of batteries by vehicle category, 2014-2030
  • Figure 170: Cathode chemistry split in the automotive segment, 2014-2030
  • Figure 171: Use of batteries in ESS, 2020
  • Figure 172: Forecast battery use in ESS, 2014-2030
  • Figure 173: Use of Li-ion batteries in portable products, 2020
  • Figure 174: Use of batteries in portable electronics, 2014-2030 350
目次

The nickel market in 2020 was strongly impacted by the global slowdown caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Lockdown measures were implemented across the globe to slow the spread of the virus, which resulted in a reduction of end-use demand for nickel products. Despite the impact to demand, nickel supply remained relatively unaffected and saw estimated growth of 4% in 2020. This was almost entirely the result of surging supply of refined nickel from Indonesia. As a result, the nickel market switched to surplus for the first time in four years.

Consumption of primary nickel has risen strongly over the past decade, although demand declined y-o-y in 2020 for the first time since the global financial crisis (GFC) as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Stainless steel demand was initially impacted by the disruptions caused by repeated lockdowns to mitigate the spread of COVID-19, which had negative consequences on construction and the hospitality sector. Large downturns for the aviation and automotive sectors reduced nickel demand in nickel alloys and castings respectively.

The nickel price averaged US$13,771/t in 2020, which was marginally down on the average for 2019. However, this does not highlight the large price movement over the year, starting with an early slump that was followed by a strong rally over the second half of 2020, despite the market surplus. Such a detachment between market fundamentals and the price, implies other factors were responsible for driving this increase.

At the beginning of 2020, Indonesia reimposed its ban on the export of unprocessed nickel ores and concentrates to attract further investment in constructing processing capacity, after having successfully increased market share following a similar export ban in 2014. The move once again has been largely successful, with nickel pig iron (NPI) supply estimated to have soared by a staggering 67% y-o-y in 2020. As a result, however, the loss of material available for processing in China led to fears of a decline in domestic NPI production, amid a stimulated Chinese economy and healthier stainless steel demand over H2 2020.

Investor speculation interest in nickel has been fuelled by the positive outlook for nickel in batteries. Comments by Tesla CEO, Elon Musk, demanding more sustainably sourced nickel have provided additional support to the bullish narrative for nickel. Batteries will find a growing market share for nickel over the next decade, although this currently represents a small proportion of nickel consumption. Several high-pressure acid leach (HPAL) projects are being constructed in Indonesia to serve the growing demand for intermediates used in nickel sulphate production. Slowing the development of these projects has been a change in plans for their tailings disposal methods. Initially these projects had planned to utilise deep sea tailings placement, but in October 2020, under pressure from concerned stakeholders along the supply chain, they have opted against this method in favour of on-land tailings storage. With sustainability concerns ranging from the large areas of land clearance involved in nickel laterite mining to the high energy consumption involved in nickel smelting, Roskill believes that ESG will become an increasingly significant component of the nickel market over 2021 and the years to come.

Demand is expected to recover through 2021 subject to the roll out of vaccines globally and national stimulus packages taking effect. Roskill forecasts stainless steel to remain the main application for nickel over the course of the next decade driven by continued growth in demand from China. Low use of nickel in scrap by Chinese and Indonesian stainless steel mills will continue to drive consumption of nickel in primary units. However, eating into stainless steel's share of the nickel market over the next decade, will be lithium-ion batteries used in electric vehicles that will see rapid uptake over the next decade. Owing to the rising demand for nickel products suitable for processing to nickel sulphate including Class I nickel, this is likely to impact stainless steel mills as they increasingly substitute such high-purity nickel for Class II nickel and scrap.

Roskill's New “Nickel Outlook 17th edition” provides a comprehensive insight into the trends and likely future direction of the primary nickel market.

Roskill experts will answer your questions:

  • What are the likely supply developments in Indonesia?
  • Which projects are in the pipeline?
  • How is demand from the stainless steel and other industries likely to develop in the next decade?
  • How is demand from lithium-ion batteries likely to develop and how will this affect the rest of the nickel industry?
  • What is the outlook for the market balance and for prices?

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Table of Contents

1. Executive summary

  • 1.1 Nickel market overview
  • 1.2 Nickel demand
  • 1.3 Nickel supply
  • 1.4 Nickel trade
  • 1.5 Outlook

2. Nickel flowchart

3. World production

  • 3.1 Mine production of nickel
  • 3.2 Production of nickel intermediate products
  • 3.3 Refined production of nickel
    • 3.3.1 Production by country
    • 3.3.2 Production by process
    • 3.3.3 Production by type
      • 3.3.3.1 Electrolytic nickel cathode
      • 3.3.3.2 Powder and briquettes
      • 3.3.3.3 Ferronickel and NPI
      • 3.3.3.4 Primary nickel sulphate
    • 3.3.4 Top producers of nickel
  • 3.4 Recycling of nickel
    • 3.4.1 Recycling of nickel in metallurgical applications
    • 3.4.2 Recycling of nickel in batteries

4. Production costs

  • 4.1 Cost of production of nickel
  • 4.2 Trends in production costs
    • 4.2.1 Ore prices
    • 4.2.2 Power costs
    • 4.2.3 By-product metals
    • 4.2.4 Exchange rates
    • 4.2.5 Labour costs
    • 4.2.6 Transport Costs
  • 4.3 Nickel project analysis

5. World consumption

  • 5.1 Direct use of nickel
    • 5.1.1 First use by application
    • 5.1.2 Primary nickel consumption by form
  • 5.2 Primary consumption by region

6. International trade

  • 6.1 Nickel ores and concentrates
  • 6.2 Nickel intermediates
    • 6.2.1 Nickel matte
    • 6.2.2 Nickel oxides and sinters
  • 6.3 Ferronickel
  • 6.4 Unwrought nickel metal, not alloyed
  • 6.5 Nickel powders and flakes
  • 6.6 Nickel chemicals
    • 6.6.1 Nickel sulphate
    • 6.6.2 Nickel oxides and hydroxides
  • 6.7 Tariffs and other factors impacting the nickel market

7. Prices

  • 7.1 How nickel is priced
  • 7.2 Prices of refined nickel
  • 7.3 Prices of nickel ore
  • 7.4 Prices of nickel intermediates
  • 7.5 Prices of NPI
  • 7.6 Prices of nickel sulphate

8. Outlook

  • 8.1 Outlook for demand
    • 8.1.1 Stainless steel
    • 8.1.2 Alloy steels and castings
    • 8.1.3 Non-ferrous alloys
    • 8.1.4 Batteries
    • 8.1.5 Plating
    • 8.1.6 Nickel consumption in other applications
    • 8.1.7 Outlook for demand by type of nickel
    • 8.1.8 Outlook for nickel consumption by country
  • 8.2 Outlook for supply
    • 8.2.1 Key trends
      • 8.2.1.1 Developments in Indonesia
      • 8.2.1.2 Developments in China
      • 8.2.1.3 Developments in the Philippines
      • 8.2.1.4 Trends among other existing producers
      • 8.2.1.5 Conversion of NPI to matte
    • 8.2.2 Overview of new projects
      • 8.2.2.1 New mine production
      • 8.2.2.2 New intermediate production
      • 8.2.2.3 New refined production
    • 8.2.3 Base case outlook for supply
      • 8.2.3.1 Mine production
      • 8.2.3.2 Intermediate production
      • 8.2.3.3 Refined production
  • 8.3 Base-case outlook for primary refined market balance
  • 8.4 Base-case outlook for prices
    • 8.4.1 Effects of Indonesian NPI supply
    • 8.4.2 Incentive prices for Indonesian HPAL project development
    • 8.4.3 Nickel price bifurcation
    • 8.4.4 Base-case nickel price forecast
    • 8.4.5 Risk factors to the price forecast
  • 8.5 Alternative outlooks
    • 8.5.1 Demand upside
    • 8.5.2 Demand downside

9. Background

  • 9.1 History
  • 9.2 Properties
    • 9.2.1 Health and environmental issues
  • 9.3 Occurrence
    • 9.3.1 Sulphide ores
    • 9.3.2 Lateritic ores
  • 9.4 Reserves and resources
    • 9.4.1 World reserves
    • 9.4.2 World resources
  • 9.5 Processing of nickel
    • 9.5.1 Pyrometallurgical Processing
      • 9.5.1.1 Pyrometallurgical processing of sulphide concentrates
      • 9.5.1.2 Pyrometallurgical processing of laterite ores
      • 9.5.1.3 Nickel Pig Iron
    • 9.5.2 Hydrometallurgical processing
      • 9.5.2.1 Hydrometallurgical processing of sulphide concentrates
      • 9.5.2.2 Hydrometallurgical processing of laterite ores
      • 9.5.2.3 Hydrometallurgical matte refining

10. Sustainability

  • 10.1 Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG)
    • 10.1.1 Environmental
      • 10.1.1.1 Resource consumption and emissions
      • 10.1.1.2 Water consumption
      • 10.1.1.3 Biodiversity and land use
      • 10.1.1.4 Tailings disposal
      • 10.1.1.5 'Green Steel'
    • 10.1.2 Social
      • 10.1.2.1 Artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM)
      • 10.1.2.2 Human rights
    • 10.1.3 Governance
      • 10.1.3.1 Corruption
      • 10.1.3.2 Ease of Doing Business (EoDB)
  • 10.2 Critical raw materials
  • 10.3 Responsible sourcing initiatives
    • 10.3.1 Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)
    • 10.3.2 LME Red Flag Assessment scheme
    • 10.3.3 Global Reporting Initiative
    • 10.3.4 Responsible Mining Index
    • 10.3.5 Responsible Sourcing Blockchain Network (RSBN)
    • 10.3.6 Initiative for Responsible Mining Assurance
    • 10.3.7 Responsible Steel Stewardship Initiative

11. Country profiles

  • 11.1 Albania
  • 11.2 Argentina
  • 11.3 Australia
  • 11.4 Austria
  • 11.5 Belgium
  • 11.6 Botswana
  • 11.7 Brazil
  • 11.8 Cameroon
  • 11.9 Canada
  • 11.10 China
    • 11.10.1 Mine production
    • 11.10.2 Class I nickel production
    • 11.10.3 Class II nickel production
  • 11.11 Colombia
  • 11.12 Cuba
  • 11.13 Cyprus
  • 11.14 Dominican Republic
  • 11.15 Finland
  • 11.16 France
  • 11.17 Germany
  • 11.18 Greece
  • 11.19 Guatemala
  • 11.20 India
  • 11.21 Indonesia
    • 11.21.1 Exports of Indonesian nickel ores
    • 11.21.2 Production of refined nickel in Indonesia
    • 11.21.3 Production of intermediate products in Indonesia
  • 11.22 Ivory Coast
  • 11.23 Japan
  • 11.24 Kazakhstan
  • 11.25 Kosovo
  • 11.26 North Macedonia
  • 11.27 Madagascar
  • 11.28 Malawi
  • 11.29 Myanmar
  • 11.30 New Caledonia
  • 11.31 Norway
  • 11.32 Papua New Guinea
  • 11.33 Philippines
  • 11.34 Poland
  • 11.35 Russia
  • 11.36 South Africa
  • 11.37 South Korea
  • 11.38 Spain
  • 11.39 Sweden
  • 11.40 Taiwan
  • 11.41 Tanzania
  • 11.42 Thailand
  • 11.43 Turkey
  • 11.44 Ukraine
  • 11.45 United Kingdom
  • 11.46 USA
  • 11.47 Venezuela
  • 11.48 Vietnam
  • 11.49 Zambia
  • 11.50 Zimbabwe

12. Company profiles

  • 12.1 Anglo American
    • 12.1.1 Brazil
    • 12.1.2 South Africa and Zimbabwe
  • 12.2 BHP Nickel West
  • 12.3 Eramet
    • 12.3.1 France
    • 12.3.2 New Caledonia
    • 12.3.3 Indonesia
  • 12.4 Glencore
    • 12.4.1 Australia
    • 12.4.2 Canada
    • 12.4.3 Norway
    • 12.4.4 New Caledonia
  • 12.5 Jinchuan Group Limited (JNMC)
  • 12.6 Nornickel
    • 12.6.1 MMC Kola
    • 12.6.2 Polar Division
    • 12.6.3 Harjavalta
  • 12.7 PT Antam
  • 12.8 Sumitomo Metal Mining (SMM)
    • 12.8.1 Japan
    • 12.8.2 Philippines
  • 12.9 Tsingshan
  • 12.10 Vale
    • 12.10.1 Brazil
    • 12.10.2 Canada
    • 12.10.3 Indonesia
    • 12.10.4 Japan
    • 12.10.5 New Caledonia
    • 12.10.6 United Kingdom

13. Consumption by first use

  • 13.1 Stainless steel
    • 13.1.1 Types of stainless steel
    • 13.1.2 Stainless steel apparent consumption
    • 13.1.3 Stainless steel production
      • 13.1.3.1 Production by grade: substitution of 300-series complete
      • 13.1.3.2 Indonesia likely a limited growth pole for stainless
    • 13.1.4 Stainless steel scrap
    • 13.1.5 End uses of stainless steel
    • 13.1.6 Stainless steel outlook
    • 13.1.7 Outlook for nickel in stainless steel
  • 13.2 Alloy steels and castings
    • 13.2.1 Types of alloy steels
    • 13.2.2 Outlook for alloy steels & castings
  • 13.3 Non-ferrous alloys
    • 13.3.1 Types of non-ferrous alloys
    • 13.3.2 High-performance alloys
      • 13.3.2.1 HPA consumption by the aerospace industry
      • 13.3.2.2 HPA consumption by non- aerospace industries
    • 13.3.3 Special performance alloys
    • 13.3.4 General technical alloys
    • 13.3.5 Outlook for non-ferrous alloys
  • 13.4 Plating
    • 13.4.1 Types of nickel used
    • 13.4.2 Types of plating
    • 13.4.3 Applications of industrial nickel plating and coating
    • 13.4.4 Outlook for plating
  • 13.5 Batteries
    • 13.5.1 Outlook for nickel in batteries
    • 13.5.2 Battery industry overview
    • 13.5.3 Li-ion value chain
    • 13.5.4 Overview of main chemistries
    • 13.5.5 Material composition of cathodes
    • 13.5.6 Chemistry overview and outlook
    • 13.5.7 Automotive market
    • 13.5.8 Energy Storage
    • 13.5.9 Portable electronics
    • 13.5.10 Power & Motive applications
  • 13.6 Other applications

14. Macro economic outlook