世界のエレクトロニクス業界データ年鑑：第2巻 (2021年) - 南北アメリカ・日本・アジア太平洋地域における生産・市場の概要
Yearbook of World Electronics Data Volume 2 2021 - An Overview of Electronics Production & Markets in the Americas, Japan & Asia Pacific
|世界のエレクトロニクス業界データ年鑑：第2巻 (2021年) - 南北アメリカ・日本・アジア太平洋地域における生産・市場の概要|
発行: Reed Electronics Research
In providing the forecasts for the current study, which were made at the end of August/beginning of September, we have assumed that the roll-out of the vaccine globally will, despite several further outbreaks in Asia and ongoing concerns in the US, allow for an easing in restrictions and support a return to growth in both economic activity and the on-going the recovery in the electronics industry. Growth is expected to gain momentum over the second half of 2021 which will continue into 2022/2023 before easing at the end of the forecast period. We believe the current shortage for certain components and materials, and in particular in the semiconductor supply chain, will weigh on demand in 2021 and potentially into the first half of 2022.
In line with the trends seen across other mature markets the US electronics industry has been significantly impacted by the transfer of volume manufacturing to lower cost locations, whether it be to Mexico, due to its close proximity to the market, or Asia and in particular, China. From the peak of the 2000 "dot com" boom, electronics production was 37.3% lower in 2020. In more recent years, the industry has been relatively stable and is expected to benefit from increased investment as companies look to manufacture domestically, to offset trade tariffs, and to take advantage of the introduction of favourable policies to support local manufacturing.
2020 saw electronics output decline by an estimated 2.8% down on the prior year's flat growth. Production of electronics equipment declined by 2.9%, and compared to growth of 1.6% in the prior year, while electronics component output declined by 2.5%.
The US, like Europe is now focused on the production of low-volume products in the control and instrumentation, medical, automotive, industrial, defence, high-end computing and communications segments. Over the medium term these sectors are projected to achieve low to medium-digit growth.
The move by US companies to "re-shore" production has gained momentum and is expected to benefit from the move by US companies to localise manufacturing to offset potential supply chain disruptions. However, at this stage it is not expected that the major volume manufacturers in the 3C segment will relocate to the country.
After increasing by 2.2% in 2017 electronics output is estimated to have declined by 4.6% in 2018, a further 3.4% in 2019 and by 3.6% in 2020. Although, COVID-19 put downward pressure on the industry in 2020 the recovery in the second half of the year helped limit the overall decline for the year as a whole. Based on official figures for the first six months of the year and despite the spike in infections in the summer and global supply disruptions, overall output assuming the on-going global recovery over the course of the remainder of the year electronics output will increase by 4.9%.
Similar to the US and countries in Western Europe, Japan has been impacted by the migration of production to low-cost locations. Between 2000 and 2020 electronics output has declined by an estimated 59.2%.
The semiconductor and passive components sectors will be the principal drivers of the Japanese electronics industry over the medium-term with the focus on products based on the latest technologies. The component sector will be supported by growth in the industrial segment and with the emergence of the Internet of Things a sustained recovery in the production of communications equipment.
Output for the Chinese electronics industry, the world's largest accounting for well over a third of global production, declined by 1.1% in value terms in 2019, in response to lower demand globally for high volume products in the computer, consumer and communications markets and the move by some manufacturers to relocate production to other countries to mitigate the fall-out from the on-going US China trade dispute, but posted growth 2.8% in 2020 despite COVID-19.
Although the Chinese electronics industry was badly impacted by COVID-19 in the first quarter of 2020, in particular disruptions to the supply chain, output recovered with growth gaining momentum as lockdown measures eased. Boosted by the strong demand for devices to enable working, studying, and consuming media from home electronics output increased by 2.8% in 2020 and is forecast to increase by 11.9% in 2021 as the demand for PCs continued in-line with extended lockdowns and other sectors rebounded as the global economy recovered. Overall growth in electronics equipment is forecast to increase by 11.8% and components by 12.7%.
Globally China is a major producer of electronic components and a leading player in the photovoltaic industry. However, the country despite the recent investment in new semiconductor fabs is still reliant on imports for ICs a situation which is not expected to change in the immediate future despite significant investment in new fabs.
Moving forward China will have face increased competition for new investment not only from Vietnam but also other Asian countries including Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, Indonesia and India. With the pandemic highlighting the vulnerability of relying on global supply chains it is also expected that foreign companies will reduce their reliance on China, with the opening of alternative low-cost operations, as well as move some production back to Western Europe and the US. Despite this, it is expected that the leading US and European companies within the industrial, automotive and aerospace segments will look to retain a manufacturing presence in the country to support local and regional demand.
Outside of China other Asian countries have established significant electronics industries, with South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, India and most recently Vietnam all playing an important role within the global market.
Due to its importance as a global center for the production of semiconductors South Korea is the fourth largest electronics producer globally with output of US$124.5 billion in 2020, a 0.5% increase from 2019's level of US$123.8 billion. Growth in semiconductor and passive component output offsetting COVID-19 led declines across the remainder of the country's electronics industry.
The cyclical nature in demand across the global semiconductor market has, and will continue to, have a major influence on developments in the South Korean electronics industry. Semiconductor output surged by 43.5% in 2017 and 24.1% in 2018, the sector benefiting from the sharp rise in the price of memory over the period, before declining by 29.7% in 2019, as the price of memory plummeted. Although COVID-19 is expected to limit growth for many IC products the demand for memory - NAND flash and DRAM - will result in an estimated 3.2% increase in semiconductor output in 2020. Semiconductor output is forecast to surge in 2021, growth of 27.0% a combination of strong demand and rising prices due in part to component shortages.
Electronics output, after increasing by 2.5% in 2019, surged in 2020 despite the pandemic with overall, electronics production increasing by an estimated 12.4%. On the equipment side, strong growth in the production of computers and related equipment and LCD TVs and more a modest increase in industrial was offset by a modest decline in communications. The components segment, which accounted for 81% of overall of electronics production in 2020, increased by 13.4%, driven by a 15.9% increase in the production of ICs and a 5.8% increase in passive components.
Semiconductor output after posting growth of 0.1% in 2019, on the back of the global slowdown in the semiconductor market, rebounded in 2020. Boosted by the demand for leading-edge foundry technologies and the growth in memory, IC output increased by 15.9% in 2020, this despite the impact of COVD-19. With demand outweighing supply, despite the pandemic continuing to lead to further lockdowns, component shortages has resulted in a sharp rise in prices and will help drive growth in 2021, IC output forecast to increase by 30% while the production of discrete semiconductors is projected to rise by 25.0%.
The once dominant computer sector, which had previously accounted for over 50% of electronics production in 2000, declined sharply as the leading Taiwanese manufacturers moved production to China. However, since 2016 the production of computer and related equipment has posted year on year growth. In 2020, output surged as the leading Taiwanese ODMs reshored production increasing the segments share of total electronics output to 7.2% up from 4.7% in 2015. In 2020, lockdown measures and the move to work from home has boosted demand globally and should led to estimated growth of 17.0%. With the demand for PCs remaing strong in the first half of 2021, in particular for notebooks, output is forecast to increase by a further 20.0% for the year as a whole.
As developments in China evolve the government is set to introduce initiatives that will boost Taiwan as a highend manufacturing center in Asia. If successfully implemented the move, which will support Taiwan's already leading position in semiconductors but also in areas such as artificial intelligence and smart manufacturing, will ensure the country remains a major player globally.
Electronics output in Malaysia increased by an estimated 5.0% in 2019 but eased to 0.3% in 2020. Growth in the semiconductor segment was offset by falling output across virtually the remainder of the electronics industry as a result of COVID-19, in particular in the first half of the year.
Malaysia is one of the world's leading centres for semiconductor packaging and assembly, with output for the key semiconductor sector increasing by 7.4% in 2019 and by a further 2.8% but then accelerate to 22.0% in 2021 inline with the boom in the semiconductor market on the back of strong demand and rising prices as result of significant component shortages.
Although the Malaysian electronics industry will continue to dominated by the components segment the strongest growth will be witnessed in industrial electronics led by control and instrumentation and medical. Growth will be supported by foreign investment by both OEMs and contract manufacturers.
Malaysia is expected benefit from increased foreign investment in the country as companies to broaden their manufacturing operations and move away from focusing solely on operations in China.
Despite the impact of COVID-19 resulting in a 6.5% decline in electronics equipment output, growth in the semiconductor segment resulted in overall electronics output in Singapore increasing by 1.9% and compared to the prior year decline of 3.8%.
Semiconductors accounted for 71% of electronics output in 2020, production increasing by 5.4% and compared to the prior year's decline of 6.5%, a stronger than expected recovery in the second half of the year supporting growth. Growth is forecast to accelerate to 24.4% in 2021 as the global electronics industry rebounds and component shortages lead to significantly higher prices.
Developments in the Singapore electronics industry are now, and in the future, closely linked to the cyclical nature of the global semiconductor market. Over the medium-term it is expected that further equipment manufacturing will be relocated to lower cost countries. Singapore, however is becoming a center for regional management, R&D and selective high-end capital-intensive production with the focus on the semiconductor segment.
After increasing by 2.1% and 2.2% in 2017 and 2018, respectively electronics output declined by 9.5% in 2019 with only industrial and communications and radar posting growth during the year. Output declined by a further 0.2% in 2020, growth in computing, the largest segment, medical and semiconductor and passive components helping offset declining output across the remaining sectors of the industry.
The Thai electronics industry is facing challenging times as the country looks to implement policies which will continue to attract foreign investment in the face of increased competition from alternative countries across Asia and in particular Vietnam and more recently Cambodia and Myanmar. Emphasis on moving to products with higher technology content and in turn value is a priority.
After five years of robust growth, electronics output increased by 13.3% in 2019, the Indian electronics industry saw output decline by 2.2% in 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 global pandemic. The downturn will be shortlived with output forecast to resume its strong growth path with output forecast to increase by 10.6% in 2021.
Growth in the electronics industry is being supported by favourable government policies including the "Make in India" programme and the adoption of the National Policy on Electronics with the aim "to create a globally competitive electronics design and manufacturing industry to meet the county's needs and serve the international market".
The production of computers and related equipment increased by an estimated 2.3% in 2020, an improvement on the 1.5% growth in the prior year, this despite the impact of the pandemic and the introduction of measures to control the spread of the virus. Growth was driven by increased output of notebooks to meet the demand for online learning through lockdowns. With the demand for notebooks remaining robust in the first half of 2021 and the expected recovery in the economy computer output is forecast to increase by 7% in 2021. Despite the introduction of policies to increase electronics manufacturing in the country within the computer segment India continues to rely on cheaper imports.
The production of mobile phones has benefited from the "Make in India" campaign with the most of the major brands (both foreign and Indian) either setting up their own manufacturing facilities or have sub-contracted manufacturing to Electronics Manufacturing Services (EMS) companies. Mobile phone companies with operations in India (including those utilising contract manufacturers) include Apple, the South Korean companies Samsung and LG Electronics and the Chinese suppliers Xiaomi, Vivo, Oppo and Realme. ODM/EMS companies with operations in India include Foxconn, Flex, Jabil, Wistron and following its announcement in 2020 that it was establishing a mobile phone manufacturing facility in the country Pegatron.
Production of the Vietnam electronics industry was estimated at US$64.5 billion in 2020, significantly higher than the US$2.6 billion reported in 2007. This has been achieved initially on the back of explosive growth in the production of mobile phones, computing, LCD TVs and semiconductors but more recently industrial products as foreign companies invest in the country to take advantage of lower costs.
The move in 2015 by the South Korean companies LG Electronics had Samsung Electronics to establish TV operations in the country has resulted in Vietnam becoming a major producer of LCD TVs. After modest growth of 1.1% in 2018, growth increased by 9.3% in 2019 and by 19.6% in 2020, the global move to introduce restrictions to stop the spread of the pandemic fuelling strong demand.
Computer output accounted for an estimated 14.1% of electronics production in 2020, the segment benefiting from strong growth associated with the move to work from home as a result of the pandemic and the transfer of some production previously undertaken in China.
As in previous year's currency movements have had a major impact on the dollar growth rate for the Brazilian electronics industry. Expressed in US dollars, electronics output fell by 0.5% in 2019 and by a further 7.1% in the prior year. In local currency production increased by 7.4% in 2019 and by 21.4% in 2020.
Production of computer hardware accounted for 40% of total output in 2020, output increasing by 0.1% in US dollars, but increasing by 31% in local currency. In constant exchange rates output is forecast to decline by 5% in 2021. In addition to around 100 small and medium-sized companies the major global players as well as the leading electronic manufacturing service providers have manufacturing operations in the country.
Growth in the Brazilian electronics industry will continue to be closely linked with developments in the country's economy along with continued investment by the world's largest electronics groups in the 3C and electronic manufacturing services segments.
With limited investment in domestic manufacturing the country will remain dependent on the import of electronic components over the period to 2024.
In addition to a large domestic market Mexico's lower costs and close proximity to the US has made it a preferred location for low-cost manufacturing not only for companies from the US and Canada but also Asia and Europe.
With the US the main export market the Mexican electronics industry is closely linked to developments in the country and in particular for high volume products including PCs, mobile phones and LCD TVs.
After increasing by 10.8% in 2018 primarily as a result of robust growth in computing and medical electronics, output eased to 2.7% in 2019 before posting a modest decline of 0.3% in 2020. In-line with the recovery in the domestic and global economy, and more importantly the positive developments in the US, electronics output is forecast to increase by 4.1% in 2021.
Computers and peripherals accounted for 54.6% of electronics output in 2020, the sector posting a modest increase of 0.1%. The decline in exports to the key US market over the course of the first six months of 2020 combined with the broader impact of COVID-19 both domestically and internationally was the primary contributing factor.