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PVインサイダー:インド - コスト・性能・プロジェクト開発

PV Insider India Report: Cost, Performance and Project Development (2013)

発行 PV Insider 商品コード 253536
出版日 ページ情報 英文 200+ Pages
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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本日の銀行送金レート: 1USD=101.51円で換算しております。
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PVインサイダー:インド - コスト・性能・プロジェクト開発 PV Insider India Report: Cost, Performance and Project Development (2013)
出版日: 2012年11月09日 ページ情報: 英文 200+ Pages
概要

2022年までに2万MWの太陽光発電の導入を目指したジャワハーラル・ネルー国家太陽光ミッション計画(JNNSM)は2013年から2017年までのフェーズIIへの準備を整えており、PV産業は産業発生期のあらゆる兆候を示しています。累積設備容量は2020年までに34,500MWに達する可能性もあると予測されています。フェーズ1から引き継がれたコストや性能、品質上の問題など、依然としていくつかの課題が解消されていませんが、フェーズ2でのミッションの焦点がオフグリッドシステムと中程度の容量のグリッドベースシステムの推奨から容量の「積極的な拡大」に移るなかで、産業の潜在力を発揮し、長期的な実行可能性を確保するために、これらの問題の解消が不可欠となってくるでしょう。

当レポートでは、インドのPV産業の動向と見通しについて調査分析し、インド政府による太陽光発電への取り組み、計画中・開発中・運用中のプロジェクト、24地域のパフォーマンスデータ(モジュールタイプ別のエネルギー出力量)、最適な傾斜・GHI・太陽光追尾方法の検証、均等化発電原価(LCOE)データ、CAPEX・OPEXの内訳、プロジェクト開発における各種検討事項、PV技術およびコンポーネントの検証、設備発電容量の予測などをまとめ、概略下記の構成でお届けいたします。

第1章 イントロダクション

  • インドのソーラーミッション
  • 政府による他の支援策
  • 市場機会
  • 課題
  • インドのPV市場概要
    • 計画中のPVプロジェクト
    • 開発中のPVプロジェクト
    • 運用中のPVプロジェクト
    • PV市場の予測
  • インドにおけるPV製造

第2章 プロジェクト開発に関する考察

  • 太陽光資源
    • 太陽光資源の評価
    • インドの太陽光資源の測定
    • 信頼性の高いデータセットの構築
    • 日射データのデータソース
  • 太陽光発電所のエネルギー性能指標
    • エネルギー出力
    • 性能比
    • 発電所利用率
    • エネルギー損失
  • インドの太陽光発電所の性能
    • エネルギー性能
    • 温度・効率
  • 労働力に関する考察
  • サイト選定に関する考察
  • PVプロジェクトの特徴
  • PVプロジェクトのリスク
    • 政策上のリスク
    • 財政上のリスク
    • 建築上のリスク
    • 運営上のリスク
  • EPCコントラクター
    • EPCコントラクターの役割
    • EPCコントラクターに必要なスキル
    • バンカブルなEPCコントラクターの選定

第3章 コンセプトとコンポーネントガイド

  • PVシステムの分類
  • PVシステム
    • スタンドアロン型PVシステム
    • グリッド接続型PVシステム
  • ユーティリティスケールの太陽光発電所のコンポーネント
    • PVモジュール
    • 構造体
    • レイアウト
    • トラッキングシステム
    • インバーター
    • 変圧器
    • スイッチギア
    • ジャンクションボックス

第4章 PVモジュール技術

  • 結晶シリコン
    • 単結晶シリコン
    • 多結晶シリコン
  • 薄膜
    • アモルファスシリコン
    • ジセレン化銅インジウムまたはジセレン化銅インジウムガリウム
  • 有機/ポリマー太陽電池
  • 多接合太陽電池
  • 量子ドット太陽電池

第5章 太陽光発電所の実地検証

  • 設計・レイアウト
  • 建築
  • コミッショニング
  • 運営・保守
  • デコミッショニング

第6章 仮想標準プラント

  • コスト内訳
    • CAPEX
    • OPEX
  • 均等化発電原価(LCOE)
    • 正味年間発電量
    • LCOEの算出
  • 感度分析
    • CAPEXのLCOEへの影響
    • 割引率のLCOEへの影響
    • PVシステム寿命のLCOEへの影響

第7章 LCOEの予測・成長推進因子

  • コスト削減
  • 世界のPV市場
  • グリッド電力価格
  • グリッドパリティ分析

第8章 総論

図表

目次

Abstract

Access the critical cost and performance data + project development insightsyou need to optimize profits and get ahead in India's PV project boom

Purchase this exclusive report and you'll benefit from the following analysis:

Comprehensive Site-Specific Performance Data: Determine the energy output of c-Si, a-Si and CulnSe modules in 24 geographical locations and identify the optimum performance configurations by module and site, including:

  • Optimal Inclination (degree)
  • GHI (kWh/m2/d)
  • Fixed Tracking vs. Single Axis Tracking vs. Two Axis Tracking

Levelized Energy Cost (LCOE) Data: Determine the LCOE (Rs./kWh) of c-Si, a-Si and CulnSe modules across the 24 geographical locations, understand exactly how CAPEX fluctuations, discount rates and PV system lifespan impact upon the LCOE.

CAPEX and OPEX Cost Breakdown: Understand the distribution of plant costs in accordance to CAPEX and OPEX, including (though not restricted to) what proportion of upfront costs are taken up by modules, power converting units and mounting structures, and what operational expenditure costs are involved in an Indian utility-scale PV plant.

Project Development Considerations: Get to grips with all the parameters required to set up a bankable utilityscale plant including, solar resource, project performance indices, labour considerations, site selection, project characteristics, risks, and EPC contractors.

Plant Walkthrough and Component Guide: Comprehensive information on the activities involved in utility-scale PV from design and layout, construction and commissioning to operation and maintenance and decommissioning, as well as in-depth examination of PV technology concepts, components, current status and future trends.

Industry Growth Forecasts and Grid Parity Analysis: Understand the year-on-year installed capacity (GW) growth up to 2020 and pinpoint when grid parity will occur under different learning scenarios.

Get critical information to build a business strategy and get ready for growth in the Indian PV market

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As the JNNSM prepares to enter Phase 2 (2013-2017) of its initiative to deploy 20,000MW of solar power in India by 2022, PV has all the signs of being a nascent industry in this context. Indeed, forecasts show that by the close of the decade there could be an installed cumulative capacity of 34,500MW. Crucially, a number of key hurdles (namely cost, performance and quality issues) inherited from and prompted by Phase 1 of the mission remain unaddressed. As the mission turns its attention away from its focus of promoting off-grid systems and modest capacity grid-based systems in Phase 1 towards "aggressively ramping up" capacity in Phase 2, addressing these challenges will prove critical to the industry's ability to realise its potential and secure longterm viability. This report brings unprecedented clarity to the cost and performance of utilityscale PV in 24 geographical locations across the lifespan of a plant, separating fact from fiction. Use this critical data to strategically plan, measure and optimize your profits by getting ahead of your competitors in the run-up to the JNNSM Phase 2 announcements.


Who should buy this Report

Whether you are a developer investing directly in india's utility-scale pv industry, a prospective developer considering entering the market, or a component supplier or service provider who needs to assess whether to invest in new manufacturing facilities, equipment or to hire more personnel, the pv insider pv india report will provide you with the comprehensive cost and performance data and project developmenwt insights you need to fine-tune your business plans and stay ahead of your competitors.

  • Suppliers, service providers and component providers Discover how much resource you should be committing to this nascent industry, understand how quickly PV India will grow over the coming decade how you can best position yourself to compete for components supplied and services provided.
  • Prospective developers - This report will help you determine the costs and revenue you can expect from a plant, get to grips with the critical project development considerations, identify potential risk and understand the best techno-optimal configurations to increase profitability.

Table of Contents

1. Introductory Overview

  • 1.1 Indian Solar Mission
  • 1.2 Other Government Support Policies
  • 1.3 Opportunities
  • 1.4 Challenges
  • 1.5 Indian PV Market Overview
    • 1.5.1 Planned PV projects
    • 1.5.2 PV projects under development
    • 1.5.3 PV projects under operation
    • 1.5.4 PV Market Projections
  • 1.7 PV Manufacturing in India

Get a copy of the brochure to find out the companies involved and more

2. Project Development Considerations

  • 2.1 Solar Resource
    • 2.1.1 Solar Resource Assessment
    • 2.1.2 Solar Resource Measurement in India
    • 2.1.3 Building a reliable dataset
    • 2.1.4 Sources of Radiation Data
  • 2.2 PV Plant Energy Performance Indicators
    • 2.2.1 Energy Output
    • 2.2.2 Performance Ratio
    • 2.2.3 Capacity Factor
    • 2.2.4 Energy Losses
  • 2.3 Performance of PV plants in India
    • 2.3.1 Energy Performance
    • 2.3.2 Temperature and Efficiency
  • 2.4 Labour Considerations
  • 2.5 Site Selection Consideratons
  • 2.6 PV Project Characteristics
  • 2.7 PV Project Risk
    • 2.71. Policy risks
    • 2.7.2 Finance risks
    • 2.7.3 Construction risks
    • 2.7.4 Operations risks
  • 2.8 EPC Contractors
    • 2.8.1 Role of EPC Contractors
    • 2.8.2 Required Skills for EPC Contractors
    • 2.8.3 Chosing a Bankable EPC Contractor

3. Concept and Component Guide

  • 3.1 PV System Classifications
  • 3.2 PV Systems
    • 3.2.1 Stand-alone PV system
    • 3.2.2 Grid-connected PV System
  • 3.3 Utility Scale PV Plant Components
    • 3.3.1 PV Module
    • 3.3.2 Structure
    • 3.3.3 Layout
    • 3.3.4 Tracking System
    • 3.3.5 Inverter
    • 3.3.6 Transformer
    • 3.3.7 Switchgear
    • 3.3.8 Junction Boxes

4. PV Module Technologies

  • 4.1 Crystalline Silicon
    • 4.1.1 Single-crystalline silicon
    • 4.1.2 Multi-crystalline silicon
  • 4.2 Thin-film
    • 4.2.1 Amorphous Silicon
    • 4.2.2 Copper indium diselenide or copper indium gallium diselenide
  • 4.3 Organic/Polymer Solar Cells
  • 4.4 Multi-Junction Solar Cells
  • 4.5 Quantum Dot Solar Cells

5. PV Plant Walkthrough

  • 5.1 Design and layout
  • 5.2 Construction
  • 5.3 Commissioning
  • 5.4 Operation and Maintenance
  • 5.5 Decommissioning

6. Virtual Reference Plant

  • 6.1 Cost Breakdown
    • 6.1.1 CAPEX
    • 6.1.2 OPEX
  • 6.2 Levelised Cost of Electricity
    • 6.2.1 Net Annual Electricity Generation
    • 6.2.2 LCOE Calculation
  • 6.3 Sensitivity Analysis
    • 6.3.1 Effect of CAPEX on LCOE
    • 6.3.2 Effect of Discount Rate on LCOE
    • 6.3.3 Effect of PV System Life on LCOE

7. LCOE Forecast and Drivers

  • 7.1 Cost Reduction
  • 7.2 Global PV Market
  • 7.3 Grid Electricity Prices
  • 7.4 Grid Parity Analysis
    • 7.4.1 15% Learning Rate Scenario
    • 7.4.2 25% Learning Rate Scenario

8. Conclusions

  • For more details about the PV Insider India Report, download a copy of the brochure

References

APPENDIX

List of Figures

  • Figure 1.1: Installed power capacity in India
  • Figure 1.2: Installed renewable energy power in India
  • Figure 1.3: India's energy challenge
  • Figure 1.4: Historical and projected annual utility scale PV installations in India
  • Figure 1.5: Projected solar PV market in India
  • Figure 1.6: Indian and global PV manufacturing capacity of crystalline silicon
  • Figure 1.7: Indian and global PV manufacturing capacity of thin-film
  • Figure 2.2: Network of IMD and CWET solar radiation stations in India
  • Figure 2.3: Overview of possible system losses and optimisation levers
  • Figure 2.4: Position of EPC contractor
  • Figure 3.1: Classification of PV systems based on their applications
  • Figure 3.2: The world of PV applications
  • Figure 3.3: Utility scale grid-connected photovoltaic system
  • Figure 3.4: Composition of a PV array
  • Figure 3.5: Block diagram of a utility scale grid-connected PV plant layout
  • Figure 6.1: Evolution of PV module retail prices from March 2011 to March 2012
  • Figure 6.2: Breakdown of CAPEX for 5 MW PV plant in India in 2010-2011
  • Figure 6.3: Energy generated by different optimally inclined PV module types
  • Figure 6.4: Energy generated by c-Si PV modules on different mounting structures
  • Figure 6.5: LCOE for different PV module technologies in India
  • Figure 6.6: LCOE for different CAPEX for plants with c-Si PV modules
  • Figure 6.7: LCOE for different discount rates for plants with c-Si PV modules
  • Figure 6.8: LCOE for different discount rates for plants with c-Si PV modules
  • Figure 7.1: Projected utility scale grid-connected PV plant cost in India (2011 2021)
  • Figure 7.2: Annual and cumulative global installed PV capacity 2000-2011
  • Figure 7.3: Projected global PV market cumulative installed capacity 2010-2020
  • Figure 7.4: Projected average grid electricity tariff in India
  • Figure 7.5: Grid parity for PV plant under the 15% learning rate scenario
  • Figure 7.6: Grid parity for PV plant under the 25% learning rate scenario

List of Tables

  • Table 1.1: JNNSM Mission PV targets
  • Table 1.2: Status of the JNNSM PV projects in Batches I and II of Phase 1.
  • Table 1.3: Planned utility scale PV projects under the JNNSM Batch II Phase 1
  • Table 1.4: Pre-operational utility scale PV plants in India
  • Table 1.5: Operational utility scale PV plants in India
  • Table 2.1: Long-term mean values and trend analyses of global and diffuse irradiance, and bright sunshine duration in India between 1971-2009
  • Table 2.2: Ground measurements and satellite-derived GHI at different meteorological stations in India.
  • Table 2.3: Data sources for solar radiation in India
  • Table 2.3: Performance of utility scale grid-connected PV system in India
  • Table 2.4: Temperature and efficiency measurements at the Yalesandra village 3 MW PV plant
  • Table 4.1: Confirmed terrestrial module efficiencies under STC and area required
  • Table 4.2: Comparison between different PV module types
  • Table 6.1: Configuration of a virtual Indian utility scale PV system
  • Table 6.2: Project cost breakdown for a utility scale grid-connected PV plant in India (Kishor Nair, 2012)
  • Table 6.3: Optimal inclination, GHI and average daily energy output (kWh/kWp/d) for different PV module technologies and mounting systems

Appendices

  • Appendix 1: PV Insider market survey questions and responses from PV developers in India administered in June 2012.
  • Appendix 2: Factors having a negative impact on the growth of the PV industry in India
  • Appendix 3: Relative weighting and ranking of different factors affecting PV developers in India
  • Appendix 4: Historic and projected CAPEX for a 5 MW plant in India (2009-2012)
  • Appendix 5: Percentage increase in energy output from c-Si PV modules for different mounting systems
  • Appendix 6: Projected PV generation LCOE and grid tariff in India from 2011 to 2021
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