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医薬品業界のライセンシング契約の評価ガイド

Guide to Valuation of Pharmaceutical Licensing Deals

発行 IMS World Publications Ltd. 商品コード 89963
出版日 ページ情報 英文
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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医薬品業界のライセンシング契約の評価ガイド Guide to Valuation of Pharmaceutical Licensing Deals
出版日: 2016年06月30日 ページ情報: 英文
概要

当報告書では、大手製薬会社やバイオ企業、学術機関とのネットワークの中で行なわれるライセンス契約における様々な問題点に焦点を当て、正確な価値評価と価値創出プロセス、将来のリスク最小化のための戦略などをまとめ、概略下記の内容でお届けいたします。

第1章 イントロダクション

  • 医薬品業界における取引
  • 価値創出
  • 目的

第2章 価値評価手法

  • 統合手法
  • なぜeNPVとベンチマーキングなのか
  • その他の手法

第3章 ベンチマーキング

  • イントロダクション
  • フィージビリティ
  • データ収集
  • 価値予測
  • 価値の調整
  • 事例:癌
    • 第1相ベンチマーキング事例
    • 第2相ベンチマーキング事例
    • 第3相ベンチマーキング事例
    • サマリー

第4章 正味現在価値予測(eNPV)

  • 基本
  • 機会コスト/時間の価値
    • NPV算出事例
  • 研究開発の失敗リスク
  • ディシジョンツリー分析
  • eNPVサマリー
  • 事例:PRI-123の価値
    • インプットデータと予測
    • スプレッドシートモデル
    • より複雑なモデル
    • PRI-123の二項式モデル
  • eNPVモデルの更なる整備
    • 感受性分析
    • モンテカルロシミュレーション
  • オプション契約

第5章 契約書の構成

  • 価値の分割
  • リスクの分配
  • 契約内容
    • 前払い
    • 研究開発費
    • ライセンス料
    • マイルストーン
    • ロイヤルティ
    • コストと利益の分配
  • 事例:PRI-123の契約書の構成

第6章 技術価値評価

  • ドラッグデリバリー技術
    • 技術開発
    • 技術促進
    • 特許寿命の拡大
  • 創薬技術
  • 事例:PRI-123のドラッグデリバリー促進価値評価

第7章 結論

付録

図表

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目次

Essential insight into valuing projects and the need to extract maximum value from your licensing deals.

Overview

The valuation of a deal is the most challenging aspect in the deal negotiation. The Guide to Valuation of Pharmaceutical Licensing Deals Report provides insight and solutions to the challenges faced by deal-makers in the biopharmaceutical industry when valuing projects at various development stages.

Key Benefits

  • This report empowers dealmakers with the information required to calculate value for drugs at all stages of development with tried and tested methods.
  • The report assists deal-makers to understand how to develop deal structures and agree terms that are acceptable to both sides.
  • It also helps dealmakers approach their next deal negotiation with confidence by outlining how to avoid the potential pitfalls in determining value for their projects.
  • In the appendix the report includes financial data for over 300 deals in excel spreadsheets sorted by stage of development, drug delivery technologies and option deals.

Contents

  • This report explains the principles of deal valuation and how to use reliable methods for valuing pharmaceutical projects.
  • It includes detailed explanations on how to arrive at approximate valuations using benchmarking techniques; methodologies are supplemented with case studies of real world deals.
  • The report also provides guidance on using expected net present value (eNPV) and decision tree analysis methods in valuation exercises.
  • The report presents a detailed review of deal components with example deal structures and information on structuring of agreements.
  • An overview of how to value drug discovery and drug delivery technologies is presented.
  • The report provides a robust set of deal benchmarking data by stage of development which can be used as valuable reference points.

Table of Contents

CHAPTER - 1

INTRODUCTION

  • 1.1. DEALMAKING IN THE PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRY
  • 1.2. UNDERSTANDING VALUE CREATION
  • 1.3. PURPOSE OF THE REPORT

    CHAPTER - 2

VALUATION METHODS

  • 2.1. INTEGRATED METHODOLOGIES
  • 2.2. WHY USE ENPV AND BENCHMARKING?
  • 2.3. OTHER METHODS
    • 2.3.1. Internal Rate of Return
    • 2.3.2. Payback
    • 2.3.3. Real Options

CHAPTER - 3

BENCHMARKING

  • 3.1. Introduction to Benchmarking
  • 3.2. FEASIBILITY
  • 3.3. DATA GATHERING
    • 3.3.1. Avoid the Benchmarking Pitfalls
  • 3.4. APPROXIMATE VALUATION
  • 3.5. REFINEMENT OF THE VALUATION
  • 3.6. EXAMPLE DEALS: CANCER
    • 3.6.1. Phase I Benchmarking Example
    • 3.6.2. Phase II Benchmarking Example
    • 3.6.3. Phase III Benchmarking Example
    • 3.6.4. Summary

CHAPTER - 4

EXPECTED NET PRESENT VALUE

  • 4.1. THE BASICS
    • 4.1.1. Cash Flows
    • 4.1.2. Relevant Costs
    • 4.1.3. Real vs. Nominal Figures
  • 4.2. OPPORTUNITY COST/TIME VALUE
    • 4.2.1. Example NPV Calculation
  • 4.3. RISK OF R&D FAILURE
  • 4.4. DECISION TREE ANALYSIS
    • 4.4.1. Example eNPV Calculation
  • 4.5. ENPV SUMMARY
  • 4.6. EXAMPLE: VALUATION OF PRI-123
    • 4.6.1. Input Data and Assumptions
    • 4.6.2. The Spreadsheet Model
    • 4.6.3. More Complex Models
    • 4.6.4. Binomial Model for PRI-123
  • 4.7. FURTHER REFINEMENT OF THE ENPV MODEL
    • 4.7.1. Sensitivity Analysis
    • 4.7.2. Monte-Carlo Simulation
  • 4.8. OPTION CONTRACTS - WHICH METHOD TO USE?

CHAPTER - 5

AGREEMENT STRUCTURE

  • 5.1. VALUE SPLIT
  • 5.2. RISK SHARING
  • 5.3. DEAL COMPONENTS
    • 5.3.1. Upfront Payments
    • 5.3.2. R&D Funding
    • 5.3.3. Licence Fees
    • 5.3.4. Milestones
    • 5.3.5. Royalties
    • 5.3.6. Shared Costs or Benefits
    • 5.3.7. Equity
  • 5.4. PREFERENCES (UTILITY)
  • 5.5. EXAMPLE: DEAL STRUCTURE FOR PRI-123

CHAPTER - 6

VALUATION OF TECHNOLOGIES

  • 6.1. DRUG DELIVERY TECHNOLOGY
    • 6.1.1. Enabling Technology
    • 6.1.2. Enhancing Technology
    • 6.1.3. Extension of Patent Life
  • 6.2. DRUG DISCOVERY TECHNOLOGY
  • 6.3. EXAMPLE: VALUATION OF DELIVERY ENHANCEMENT OF PRI-123

CONCLUSION

REFERENCES

APPENDICES

  • A.1. EXAMPLE BENCHMARKING DEALS: CANCER
  • A.2. REFERENCE DEALS TABLES
    • A.2.1. DISCOVERY AND PRECLINICAL DEALS
    • A.2.2. PHASE I DEALS
    • A.2.3. PHASE II DEALS
    • A.2.4. PHASE III DEALS
    • A.2.5. REGISTERED DEALS
    • A.2.6. LAUNCHED DEALS
    • A.2.7. OPTION DEALS
    • A.2.8. DRUG DELIVERY DEALS

FIGURES

  • Figure 1: Total partnering activity in the pharmaceutical industry.
  • Figure 2: Mean upfront and headline value by year and development phase.
  • Figure 3: Integrated valuation methods.
  • Figure 4: Binomial lattice modelling of Brownian movement in value.
  • Figure 5: eNPV decision tree model with scenario analysis for commercial risk.
  • Figure 6: Ideal benchmarking deal cluster.
  • Figure 7: Non-ideal benchmarking cluster.
  • Figure 8: IMS PharmaDeals database search engine.
  • Figure 9: Example pharmaceutical deal valuation force field.
  • Figure 10: Attrition by phase and therapeutic area
  • Figure 11: Example decision tree.
  • Figure 12: Pharmaceutical product decision tree.
  • Figure 13: Example decision tree.
  • Figure 14: Monte-Carlo simulation for PRI-123.
  • Figure 15: The effect of time and risk on the value of deal components.
  • Figure 16: A rough guide to NPV split ratios.
  • Figure 17: Frequency of equity investment as financial component.
  • Figure 18: Enhanced revenues due to delivery technology.
  • Figure 19: Enhancement of patent life.
  • Figure 20: Drug discovery decision tree model.
  • Figure 21: Extended drug discovery decision tree model.
  • Figure 22: Drug discovery eNPV model.

TABLES

  • Table 1: Pros and cons of benchmarking and DCF-based methods.
  • Table 2: Benchmarking methodology overview.
  • Table 3: Sources of benchmarking information.
  • Table 4: Approximate benchmark valuation.
  • Table 5: Refined benchmark valuation.
  • Table 6: Phase I small molecule anticancer deals.
  • Table 7: Phase II small molecule anticancer deals.
  • Table 8: Phase III small molecule anticancer deals.
  • Table 9: Cost of capital (COC) for pharmaceutical firms.
  • Table 10: Example NPV calculation - part 1 Contribution.
  • Table 11: Example NPV calculation - part 2 NPV.
  • Table 12: Selected examples of data sources providing estimates for success and attrition in drug development.
  • Table 13: Example eNPV calculation.
  • Table 14: Cumulative probabilities.
  • Table 15: Example valuation - summary.
  • Table 16: eNPV spreadsheet valuation of PRI-123.
  • Table 17: Quarterly eNPV spreadsheet valuation of PRI-123.
  • Table 18: Valuation of PRI-123 using the binomial method.
  • Table 19: Sensitivity analysis of the PRI-123 model.
  • Table 20: PRI-123 deal structure and eNPV share.
  • Table 21: PRI-123 eNPV valuation and deal structure spreadsheet model. Deal valuation from licensee's perspective
  • Table 22: eNPV model for enhanced PRI-123 formulation.
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