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市場調査レポート

CIS諸国の住宅建設市場の分析と将来予測

Residential construction market in CIS countries 2014. Development forecasts for 2015-2020.

発行 PMR 商品コード 318884
出版日 ページ情報 英文 110 Pages
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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CIS諸国の住宅建設市場の分析と将来予測 Residential construction market in CIS countries 2014. Development forecasts for 2015-2020.
出版日: 2014年10月31日 ページ情報: 英文 110 Pages
概要

CIS諸国では現在、住宅ローン市場の発達や1人当たり住宅面積の狭さなどを受けて、住宅新築件数が大幅に増加しています。ロシアの場合、2013年の住宅の総床面積は7050万平方メートル(前年比7.2%)に達し、過去最高だった1987年の数値(7280万平方メートル)に並ぶ状態となりました。カザフスタンでも住宅建設は活発で、2013年の住宅総床面積は640万平方メートル(同3.2%)と、1990年以来のレベルに達しました。ロシアとの紛争にも関わらず、ウクライナでも住宅の新規建設・供給が精力的に進められており、2014年上半期の新規着工住宅(床面積)は410万平方メートル(前年同時期比28.7%)に達しました。

当レポートでは、CIS諸国(ロシア・ウクライナ・カザフスタン)における住宅建設市場の最新動向と将来展望について分析し、各国の市場構造や影響要因、全体的な市場動向見通し(今後6年間分)、部門別(戸建住宅/集合住宅)の詳細動向、規制環境、住宅ローン市場の動向、主要な住宅開発プロジェクト、将来の市場の方向性などを調査・推計しております。

分析手法

エグゼクティブ・サマリー

ロシア

  • 住宅ストック
  • 住宅竣工件数
  • 地域別の住宅建設件数
  • 戸建住宅建設
  • 住宅地開発計画
  • 住宅価格
  • 住宅ローン市場
  • SWOT分析
  • 将来予測

ウクライナ

  • 住宅ストック
  • 住宅竣工件数
    • 戸建住宅建設プロジェクト
  • 主な住宅建設プロジェクトの概要
  • 住宅地開発計画
  • 住宅価格
  • 住宅ローン市場
  • 将来予測

カザフスタン

  • 住宅ストック
  • 住宅竣工件数
  • 地域別の住宅建設件数
  • 戸建住宅建設
  • 建築許可
  • 住宅地開発計画
  • 住宅ローン市場
  • 住宅価格
  • 将来予測

図の一覧

表の一覧

PMRについて

目次

This document provides a comprehensive view of residential construction market conditions in Russia, Kazakhstan and Ukraine. It examines the status and future prospects for both single unit structures and multi-family dwellings, provides information and updates on significant projects in the planning stages and currently underway.

The report also presents complete development forecasts for the overall market and for each country for the period 2015-2020.

Benefit from the market knowledge of PMR experts concerning

  • Value of the residential construction markets in Russia, Kazakhstan and Ukraine
  • Values of key segments - single and multi-unit construction
  • The effects of external factors, events and trends on market conditions
  • Regulatory developments in each country and subsequent market impact
  • Housing and mortgage market conditions in each country
  • Single family housing construction - current prices, conditions and forecasts each of the three countries
  • Multi-unit residential construction - current prices, forecasts and noteworthy projects in each country
  • Construction projects underway and finished units on the market in each country
  • Apartment prices and available supply of residential housing units in each of the three countries.

This report answers your questions about CIS residential construction

  • What are the current forecasts for residential construction market expansion in Russia, Kazakhstan and Ukraine
  • What are the major structural differences between markets in each country
  • Which projects are attracting the most interest from investors
  • What is the current status of the region's mortgage market How will conditions change in the coming years
  • How many residential units will be built during the forecast period
  • How much is the residential construction segment Russia, Kazakhstan and Ukraine currently worth
  • What are the current values of the single and multi family construction segments
  • At what rate are the residential construction markets expected to expand in the years ahead
  • Which projects of note are in the planning stages in each of the three countries
  • What are the outlooks for changing prices in the residential construction sectors in Russia, Kazakhstan and Ukraine

Did you know that

  • Housing stock per capita in Russia is only 24 m2
  • 70.5 million m2 of residential space was activated in Russia in 2013, the highest figure since 1990
  • Ukraine has only about 24 m2 of residential space per capita, including 22 m2 in urban areas
  • Less than 5% of home sales in Ukraine are concluded with mortgage loans
  • Between 2010 and mid-2014, fewer than 20,000 families were able to purchase or obtain a property through state-run residential construction development programmes in Ukraine
  • There was on average 20.9 m2 residential space per capita in Kazakhstan at the end of 2013, with 23.7 m2 in urban areas and 17.4 m2 in rural
  • In September 2014, the average interest rate for KZT denominated mortgages eased to 10.9%, down from an average of 11.5% in 2013 and 11.9% in 2012.

Selected companies analysed in this report

Akvareli Development Holding, Altis, Astana Trade International, Bazis Construction Company, BI-Group, Consol, DSK-, Etalon Group, Integral-Bud, K.A.N. Development, Kadorr Group, Kortros, Koshelev Corporation, Kyivgorstroy (Kyivmiskbud), Liko-Holding, LSR Group, Morton Group, NEST, PIK Group, Renova Group, Setl City, SU-155, TMM, Ukrainian Development Partners, VKB Group, YIT Group.

This report is intended for use by

  • Manufacturers and distributors of building materials in Russia, Kazakhstan and Ukraine
  • Manufacturers and distributors of construction machinery and equipment in the region
  • Companies exploring market entry in residential construction markets in Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan
  • Design and project management specialists at work in the region
  • Trade and commerce-focused organisations
  • Educational, research and government organisations
  • Research, analysis and business consulting services providers
  • Banks and brokerage houses
  • Investment, infrastructure and private equity funds.

Extract from this report

  • Housing stock per capita in Russia (about 24%) is significantly well below the figure seen in most European countries, where this parameter exceeds 30 m2.
  • In recent years, the Ukrainian government has launched several residential construction development programmes, although with limited effect so far because of the lack of funding.
  • The government is determined to support residential construction projects across the country, partly through the provision of subsidised mortgages within the Regional Development programme between 2015 and 2020.

Market commentary by expert

“There has been a significant increase in the amount of housing completed in Russia, Kazakhstan and Ukraine. This has been caused mainly by strong mortgage market growth, increases in household incomes, a shortage of per capita housing space and an improvement in business sentiment. The total floor space of residences put into use in Russia in 2013 increased by 7.2% to 70.5 million m2, almost reaching the record high annual completion level of 72.8 million m2 recorded 1987. Strong residential construction activity has also been observed in Kazakhstan, where 6.4 million m2 of housing space was activated in 2013, a 3.2% year-on-year increase, equalling the highest yearly housing completion figure recorded in Kazakhstan since 1990. In Ukraine, the new housing supply in 2013 increased by 18.3% in year-on-year comparison, although the total space registered last year expanded by only 1.8%. Moreover, housing completion in Ukraine is expected to continue to increase in 2014, regardless of the crisis in eastern Ukraine and its impact on the economy. In H1 2014, the amount of newly registered housing space stood at 4.1 million m2, 28.7% more than the figure achieved in the corresponding period a year earlier, with 53% more new space being completed in H1 2014 than during the first half of 2013. Overall, in 2014 the amount of newly registered residential space is expected to be about 10.3 million m2, surpassing the performance achieved a year earlier by 3-4%.” Vitalie Iambla, construction Market Analyst.

Table of Contents

  • Methodology
  • Executive summary
  • Russia
    • Housing stock
    • Completed homes
    • Residential construction in the regions
    • Individual residential construction
    • Residential construction development programme
    • Housing prices
    • Mortgage market
    • SWOT analysis
    • Forecasts
  • Ukraine
    • Housing stock
    • Housing completion
      • Individual housing construction projects
    • Overview of major residential projects
    • Housing construction development programmes
    • Housing prices
    • Mortgage market
    • Forecasts
  • Kazakhstan
    • Housing stock
    • Residential properties completed
    • Residential construction in the regions
    • Individual residential construction
    • Building permits
    • Residential construction development programmes
    • Mortgage market
    • Housing prices
    • Forecasts
  • List of graphs
  • List of tables
  • About PMR

Table of graphs:

  • Total housing stock in Russia (million m2, e-o-p), 2005-2013
  • Old and dilapidated housing in Russia (million m2), 1996-2013
  • Share of old and dilapidated housing space in Russia (%), by federal district, 2012
  • Completion of housing space in Russia and change in main residential construction support factors (%, y-o-y), 2010-July 2014
  • Total floor area of residential space commissioned in Russia (million m2) and change (%, y-o-y), 2007-July 2014
  • Total number of homes built in Russia (‘000 units) and change (%, y-o-y), 2007-July 2014
  • Newly commissioned homes in Russia (%), by number of rooms, 2011-2013
  • Average size of homes built in Russia (m2), 2000 and 2005-2014
  • Construction of residential floor space in Russia (%), by leading regions, 2013
  • Construction of residential floor space in Russia (%), by leading regions, January-July 2014
  • Individual construction of housing space as a proportion of total housing space completed in Russia (%), 2006-2013
  • Total floor space of detached houses completed by individuals in Russia (million m2) and change (%, y-o-y), 2006-2013
  • Total number of detached houses built by individuals in Russia ('000 units) and change (%, y-o-y), 2006-2013
  • Planned volume of new residential space to be commissioned in Russia under the Provision of the Citizens with Affordable and Comfort Housing Programme (million m2), 2014-2020
  • Economy-class residential space to be commissioned in Russia under the Provision of the Citizens with Affordable and Comfort Housing Programme (million m2), 2014-2020
  • Breakdown of total spending on construction of economy-class housing in Russia (RUB), by type of work, 2014
  • Breakdown of total budget for implementation of the Housing Programme for the City of Moscow (%), by source of funding, 2014-2018
  • Housing space completion within regional mortgage support programmes in Russia ('000 m2), 2011-2013
  • Average housing prices in Russia (RUB '000/m2, e-o-p), 2006-Q2 2014
  • House Price Index changes in Russia (%, y-o-y, e-o-p), 2006-Q2 2014
  • Regional distribution of total value of loans for home purchases granted in Russia over the year (%), 2013
  • Regional distribution of total value of loans for home purchases granted in Russia over the period (%), H1 2014
  • Number of mortgages (‘000) granted in Russia and change (%, y-o-y), 2009-H1 2014
  • Value of mortgages granted in Russia (RUB bn) and change (%, y-o-y), 2008-H1 2014
  • Total value of outstanding mortgages granted to population in Russia (RUB bn) and share of rouble-denominated loans (%, e-o-p), 2007-June 2014
  • Breakdown of mortgages granted by Sberbank in Russia during the period (RUB bn), by type of property, H1 2014
  • Breakdown of total value of mortgages granted by banks in Russia (%), 2013
  • Breakdown of total value of mortgages granted by banks in Russia (%), H1 2014
  • Contribution of state-owned banks to total value of mortgages granted yearly in Russia (%), 2007-H1 2014
  • Average rate for mortgages granted in Russia (%), 2007-H1 2014
  • Number of mortgages ('000) granted to population and share (%) of mortgage-supported deals in total number of residential property transactions in Russia, 2008-H1 2014
  • Mortgages to be granted in Russia under the Provision of Citizens of the Russian Federation with Affordable and Comfort Housing Programme ('000), 2014-2020
  • Change in average mortgage rate granted in roubles in Russia in comparison with CPI (+/- p.p.), 2014-2020
  • Total housing floor area (million m2) and number of dwellings ('000) to be commissioned in Russia, 2014-2020
  • Residential construction output in Russia (RUB bn) and real change (%, y-o-y), 2010-2020
  • Breakdown of number of homes in Ukraine (%), by number of rooms per residence, 1 January 2014
  • Breakdown of total housing space in Ukraine (%), by number of rooms per residence, 1 January 2014
  • Distribution of urban and rural households in Ukraine (%), by completion date of their residence, until 1950s-2000s
  • Total floor space of housing registered in Ukraine (million m2) and change (%, y-o-y), 2007-2014
  • Total floor space of housing registered in Ukraine (million m2) and change (%, y-o-y), except for space registered based on the Temporary Order, 2007-H1 2014
  • Total number of new housing units registered in Ukraine (‘000 units) and change (%, y-o-y), 2007-H1 2014
  • Average size of residences completed in Ukraine (m2), 2007-H1 2014
  • Single-residence house construction in Ukraine (‘000 m2) and change (%, y-o-y), 2007-H1 2014
  • Share of single-residence houses in total newly registered housing space in Ukraine (%), 2007-H1 2014
  • Number of home sale contracts registered by notaries in Ukraine (‘000), 2007-2013
  • Number of mortgage backed deals registered by notaries in Ukraine (‘000), 2007-2012
  • Total value of outstanding loans granted to population for house purchase in Ukraine (UAH bn, e-o-p) and change (%, y-o-y), 2007-July 2014
  • Total number and value (UAH m) of mortgage loans refinanced by the State Mortgage Institution of Ukraine, 2007-July 2014
  • Average mortgage rate on granted loans in Ukraine (%), 2007-June 2014
  • Total residential construction output in Ukraine (UAH bn) and real change (%, y-o-y), 2010-2020
  • Housing stock in Kazakhstan (million m ), 2007-2013
  • Total floor area of residential units commissioned in Kazakhstan (‘000 m2) and change (%, y-o-y), 2007-H1 2014
  • Residential buildings completed in Kazakhstan and change (%, y-o-y), 2007-H1 2014
  • Investment in housing construction in Kazakhstan (KZT bn), by source of funding, and real change (%, y-o-y), 2007-H1 2014
  • Construction of residential floor space by companies in Kazakhstan (%), by leading regions, 2012
  • Construction of residential floor space by companies in Kazakhstan (%), by leading regions, 2013
  • Number of residential building permits issued in Kazakhstan and change (%, y-o-y), 2009-H1 2014
  • Value of mortgage portfolio at commercial banks in Kazakhstan (KZT bn, e-o-p) and change (%, y-o-y), 2005-June 2014
  • Value of mortgages granted in Kazakhstan (KZT bn) and nominal change (%, y-o-y), 2006-June 2014
  • Average mortgage rate on loans granted in Kazakhstan (%), 2006-June 2014
  • Share of overdue mortgage payments in total value of outstanding mortgages granted to the population in Kazakhstan (%, e-o-p), 2008-June 2014
  • Value (KZT bn) and real change (%, y-o-y) of residential construction output in Kazakhstan, 2010-2020

List of tables:

  • Distribution of residential buildings in Russia, by type of building material, 2012
  • Distribution of residential buildings in use in Russia, by year of completion, 2012
  • Administrative regions in Russia, by housing space per capita (m2), 2012
  • Total floor area of residential space commissioned in Russia (million m2), by rural/urban area, 2013
  • Completion of housing space in Russia (‘000 m2), by source of funding, 2011-1013
  • Breakdown of completed residential buildings in Russia, by number of floors and total space (% of total), 2012
  • Breakdown of completed residential buildings in Russia, by number of floors and total space (% of total), 2013
  • Total floor space of housing units completed in subjects of the Russian Federation, 2011-2014
  • Key targets of the Provision of the Citizens with Affordable and Comfort Housing Programme in Russia, 2014-2020
  • Key targets of the Housing Programme for the City of Moscow for the period 2012-2018
  • Russian regions with the widest gaps between housing prices and housing construction costs, Q2 2014
  • Breakdown of unpaid mortgages in Russia (RUB m), by days overdue, July 2014
  • Large residential projects in Russia, 2014-2020
  • Housing stock in Ukraine, 2000, 2005, 2009, 2013
  • Average housing space per capita in Ukraine, by administrative region (m2), 2005, 2008, 2011 and 2013
  • Ukraine's provinces with more than 50 million m2 of total housing, 1 January 2014
  • Distribution of households in Ukraine by level of satisfaction with their housing conditions (%), 2013-2014
  • Distribution of households in Ukraine by level of satisfaction with their housing conditions (%), by administrative region, 2014
  • Average total living floor area of newly registered residences in Ukraine (m2), by urban and rural area, 2010-H1 2014
  • Breakdown of newly registered residential space in Ukraine by type of development work (%), 2010-H1 2014
  • Breakdown of newly registered residential space in Ukraine by number of floors in residential buildings (%), 2009-2013
  • Breakdown of newly registered residential space in Ukraine by building material used for construction of walls (%), 2009-2013
  • Construction of housing space in Ukraine, by administrative region, 2012-H1 2014
  • Housing construction by individual builders in Ukraine, 2000-2010
  • Completion of single-residence houses in Ukraine (‘000 m2 of floor space), 2012-H1 2014
  • Large residential projects in Ukraine, 2014-2018
  • Average prices of housing in Ukraine (UAH/m2), August 2013 and August 2014
  • Breakdown of total value of outstanding loans granted for house purchase in Ukraine, by maturity date (%, e-o-p), 2007-July 2014
  • Value share of outstanding loans granted for house purchase in Ukraine (%, e-o-p), by currency, 2007-July 2014
  • Average per capita housing space in Kazakhstan (m2), by region, 2001, 2006, 2011-2012
  • Breakdown of investment in housing construction in Kazakhstan by source of funding (%), 2007-2013
  • Amount of housing completed in Kazakhstan (‘000 m2 of total floor space), 2008-H1 2014
  • Number of housing units built in Kazakhstan, by region, 2011-H1 2014
  • Housing construction carried out by individual investors in Kazakhstan, 2006-H1 2014
  • Amount of housing space completed in Kazakhstan (‘000 m2 of total floor space), individual investors vs companies, 2012-H1 2014
  • Residential building permits issued in Kazakhstan: number and cost, 2013
  • Residential building permits issued in Kazakhstan: number and cost, H1 2014
  • Housing space to be commissioned in accordance with the 2020 Regions' Development Programme (‘000 m2), 2012-2019
  • Value share of mortgages granted in Kazakhstan (%), by currency, 2006-2013
  • Change in housing prices in Kazakhstan (%, e-o-p, y-o-y), by category of residence, 2007-June 2014
  • Average house prices on the primary market in major cities in Kazakhstan (KZT ‘000 /m2, $/m2, e-o-p), 2007, 2011-June 2014
  • Major residential projects in Kazakhstan, 2014-2018
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