The report evaluates and discusses the potential of 106 medium-sized Polish
cities (40,000-400,000 inhabitants) according to a number of variables, such
as the status and structure of population, current and forecast labour market
conditions, current and predicted wealth of residents, and level of economic
The report presents data on trade chain activity in the analysed cities,
looking closely at 20 key large-area grocery store chains, as well as more
than 30 selected non-food chains offering home appliances and consumer
electronics, DIY and home furnishings, health and beauty products and sporting
goods. It also covers existing and planned shopping centres, and updates the
map of modern trade locations for each city.
The report also features a supplementary database supporting key conclusions
and data and containing detailed information on the individual cities as well
as an additional summary. The file enables the client to independently analyse
the data according to selected criteria, either collectively, by groups of
cities chosen by size or voivodship, or individually for each city.
This publication evaluates a broad range of topics critical to retail success, such as:
- Overview of current and projected conditions in the Polish economy
- Analysis based on the age structure of the current and forecast urban
- Current disposable income levels, with a forecast to 2015 for each of
Poland's mid-sized cities
- Labour market prospects for the next three years, as measured by
- The levels of salaries in individual cities and the forecasted growth of
salaries until 2015
- Economic activity and investments in trade and services
- Store locations for nearly 60 chains by cities and by groups of cities -
number of stores, saturation indexes
- Existing and planned shopping centres.
When evaluating potential retail locations, professionals ask:
- Which medium-sized cities enjoy the lowest unemployment rate?
- Which medium-sized cities are threatened by higher unemployment, and face
the highest unemployment increase in the three-year term?
- In which medium-sized cities are salaries the highest?
- Where are most housing benefits paid out?
- Which medium-sized cities are the youngest in terms of the age of their
- In which regions is the disposable income per resident the highest, and in
which is it likely to grow the most by 2015?
- Where do key trade chains locate their stores? Which location strategies
do they prefer?
- Which medium-sized cities are most saturated with chain stores, and which
are least saturated?
- In which medium-sized cities has the number of stores increased the most
in the last three to five years, and where has the commercial and service area
expanded the most?
- Which new shopping centres opened in 2012, and in which medium-sized
cities are shopping centres planned for the years ahead?
- What is the situation of the large-area chain, according to GUS?
- What types and levels of economic activity exist in specific
municipalities, by total numbers of existing enterprises, including the
A Database in Excel format adds convenience and value to this document.
This report offers users a database in Excel format, perfect for use in
performing customised research and independent analyses. This ancillary
document contains a wealth of key data on medium-sized cities in Poland and
enables readers to search and examine information sorted by specific cities as
well as groups of cities, by voivodship or by size.
Retail professionals will want to consult this report when:
- Conducting research as a starting point for deciding on a retail location
in the Polish market
- Analysing the potential of various cities of differing sizes, located in
different areas (voivodships) of Poland
- Analysing the established location criteria and policies used by the key
chains from the following sectors: grocery, consumer electronics, health and
beauty products, sporting goods, and DIY and home furnishings
- Identifying areas of low saturation on the commercial map of Poland.
This document is the perfect analytical tool for:
- Trade and development companies, as well as providers of services for trade
- Research companies and industry institutions interested in the potential
for retail success in Poland's medium-sized cities
- Retailers currently active in or planning to enter the market
- Retail supply and service providers
- Professionals engaged in construction, sale and lease of commercial real
- Financial and business consultants and investors
- Chambers of commerce and other organisations dedicated to business
Extract from this report
- In total, there were nearly 3.87m businesses in Poland in 2011, of which
29% (1.12m) in the cities we have analysed, or 1,114 businesses per 10,000
people. The highest number of businesses has been registered in the largest
cities, but the locations with the highest ratio per one thousand residents
also include smaller ones, i.e. Kolobrzeg and Swinoujscie in the coastal area,
or Piaseczno near Warsaw. The group with the lowest ratio is dominated by
Silesian cities and towns.
- In the 106 towns and cities we have analysed, the number of retail and
service buildings between 2005 and 2011 increased by more than 7,630, while
the area in both new and expanded buildings reached over 8m m2.
- The share of population in the productive age (15-64 years old, as defined
by PMR), ranges from 63.7% for Walbrzych to 77% for Belchatow, while the
average for Poland reaches 71.1%. The share of this group is gradually
shrinking, and by 2015 is expected to drop to 69.1%, and by even 10 p.p. for
- Nearly 100 shopping centres with an area of at least 5,000 m2 are in
various stages of investment process in the 106 analysed cities, however
mainly in the initial stages. In total, developers' plans cover over 2.5m m2
of new retail and service rental area.
- According to statistics, out of around 162,000 urban residents that in
2007-2011 disappeared from medium-sized towns and cities in Poland, 71% moved
to the countryside, 17% to other towns and cities, and 12% abroad.
- In the 106 analysed medium-sized cities and towns, 95,500 apartments were
completed in the period 2009-2011, with a total area of 8.13m m2. Piaseczno
tops the ranking with 574 completed apartments per 10,000 inhabitants - over
four times more than in an average Polish city.
Market commentary by expert
“From a total of more than 900 Polish cities, 88% have populations of
less than 40,000, and concentrate only a third of the urban population. The
seven largest cities in Poland, on the other hand, constitute a small
percentage of the total number of cities, yet are inhabited by 22% of the
urban population. Our report focuses on the retail potential of the remaining
106 medium-sized cities, those with populations between 40,000 and 400,000,
which, according to the official data, concentrate over 40% of the urban
population of Poland. Store chains are increasingly interested in these
cities, as an alternative to large cities in which they face high levels of
competition and small towns where purchasing potential is sometimes too low to
justify serious interest.” Dominika Kubacka, Senior Retail market
Table of Contents
II. Executive summary
III. Overview of Polish economy
IV. Overview of medium-sized cities in Poland
- 1. Poland's urban population
- 2. Economic potential of medium-sized cities
- 3. Retail network
- 4. Economic potential of cities and competition in retail
V. List of graphs
VI. List of tables
VII. About PMR