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輸送部門の展望:世界の燃料消費量の予測

Transportation Forecast - Global Fuel Consumption: Road Transportation Sector Consumption of Gasoline, Diesel, Biofuels, Natural Gas, Liquefied Petroleum Gas, Electricity and Hydrogen - Global Market Forecasts 2014-2035

発行 Navigant Research 商品コード 310287
出版日 ページ情報 英文 25 Pages; 45 Tables, Charts & Figures
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輸送部門の展望:世界の燃料消費量の予測 Transportation Forecast - Global Fuel Consumption: Road Transportation Sector Consumption of Gasoline, Diesel, Biofuels, Natural Gas, Liquefied Petroleum Gas, Electricity and Hydrogen - Global Market Forecasts 2014-2035
出版日: 2014年07月25日 ページ情報: 英文 25 Pages; 45 Tables, Charts & Figures
概要

石油への依存度の軽減は、世界各国の輸送業にとって積年の課題となっていました。現在、地球上には12億台以上の自動車が走行していますが、その98%がガソリン・軽油を燃料としてます。各国政府は、代替的燃料やAFV(代替燃料車)への財政支援、バイオ燃料の使用義務、新車への燃費義務適用など、様々な手段を通じて石油消費量の削減を図っています。その結果、代替的燃料は徐々に普及して、自動車用燃料市場にも影響を及ぼすようになってきました。ただし、効果の大きさは燃料の種類や地域によって大きく異なります。例えば、LPGは東欧やトルコ、韓国では広く普及していますが、他国ではあまり普及していません。現在のところ、どの種類の代替的燃料も、石油に完全に取って代わるには至っていません。全世界の道路輸送業における年間エネルギー消費量は、2014年には8京1100兆BTU、2035年には10京1700兆BTUに達する、と推計されています。

当レポートでは、世界の輸送業における今後の燃料消費量の見通しについて分析し、代替的燃料の主な普及促進要因や現在の開発状況、各種燃料/エネルギー源の消費量の予測値、地域別の詳細動向といった情報をお届けいたします。

第1章 エグゼクティブ・サマリー

  • 市場概況
  • 分析範囲
  • 市場予測

第2章 市場予測

  • イントロダクション
  • 分析手法
    • 主な変数
      • 燃料価格
      • 走行距離(VMT)
      • 燃費
      • バイオ燃料の普及率
    • 換算率
  • 石油
  • ガソリン
  • ディーゼル燃料
  • バイオ燃料
    • エタノール
    • バイオディーゼル
    • ドロップイン・バイオ燃料
  • 天然ガス
  • LPG(液化石油ガス)
  • 電気
  • 水素
  • 結論・提言

第3章 略語・頭字語一覧

第4章 目次

第5章 図表一覧

第6章 分析範囲・情報源・分析手法・注記

目次
Product Code: MD-GFC-14

Road Transportation Sector Consumption of Gasoline, Diesel, Biofuels, Natural Gas, Liquefied Petroleum Gas, Electricity, and Hydrogen: Global Market Forecasts, 2014-2035.

Reducing the transportation sector's dependence on oil has long been a policy goal of governments globally. The sector's overwhelming dependence on the resource results in major costs that affect energy security, environmental security, and economic stability for nations globally. More than 1.2 billion vehicles are on the world's roads today, with nearly 98% being powered by blends of gasoline or diesel. Governments have initiated a number of policies aimed at reducing oil consumption, including subsidizing alternative fuels and alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs), biofuels mandates, and higher fuel economy requirements for new vehicles.

Markets for both vehicles and fuels have gradually begun to respond to these government programs, and alternative fuels are beginning to have an impact on global oil demand. The shape and form of road transportation alternative fuels markets vary by region, largely influenced by government regulations, local resources, infrastructure, and fuel prices. For instance, markets for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are particularly strong in Eastern Europe, Turkey, and South Korea, but relatively mute elsewhere. As such, no one alternative fuel has been pinpointed as the perfect alternative fuel solution. Navigant Research forecasts that annual energy consumption in the global road transportation sector will grow from 81.1 quadrillion Btu in 2014 to 101.7 quadrillion Btu in 2035.

This Navigant Research report analyzes the global road transportation fuels market by alternative fuel and vehicle segment (light duty vehicles and medium and heavy duty vehicles). Analysis and data are provided for the following fuels: gasoline, diesel, ethanol, biodiesel, drop-in biofuels, natural gas, LPG, electricity, and hydrogen. Global market forecasts for energy, oil, and fuel consumption, segmented by country and vehicle segment, extend through 2035.

Key Questions Addressed:

  • What is the overall impact of alternative fuels and alternative fuel vehicles on the global fuels supply and market?
  • What impact are advances in vehicle fuel economy having on the conventional fuels (gasoline and diesel) supply and markets?
  • What are the fastest-growing alternative fuels by region?
  • What are the major factors and variables in assessing demand for road transportation fuels?
  • What are the market drivers and challenges for each fuel type?

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

  • 1.1. Market Overview
  • 1.2. Scope
  • 1.3. Market Forecasts

2. Market Forecasts

  • 2.1. Introduction
  • 2.2. Methodology
    • 2.2.1. Major Variables
      • 2.2.1.1. Fuel Price
      • 2.2.1.2. VMT
      • 2.2.1.3. Fuel Economy
      • 2.2.1.4. Biofuels Penetration
    • 2.2.2. Conversions
  • 2.3. Oil
  • 2.4. Gasoline
  • 2.5. Diesel
  • 2.6. Biofuels
    • 2.6.1. Ethanol
    • 2.6.2. Biodiesel
    • 2.6.3. Drop-In
  • 2.7. Natural Gas
  • 2.8. LPG
  • 2.9. Electricity
  • 2.10. Hydrogen
  • 2.11. Conclusions and Recommendations

3. Acronym and Abbreviation List

4. Table of Contents

5. Table of Charts and Figures

6. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

  • Annual Road Transportation Sector Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Sales Weighted Average Fuel Retail Price, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual Road Transportation Sector Oil Consumption by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual Road Transportation Sector Gasoline Consumption by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual Road Transportation Sector Diesel Consumption by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual Road Transportation Sector Biofuels Consumption by Fuel Type, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual Road Transportation Sector Natural Gas Consumption by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual Road Transportation Sector LPG Consumption by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual Road Transportation Sector Electricity Consumption by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual Road Transportation Sector Hydrogen Consumption by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Navigant Research Global Fuel Consumption Forecast Model

List of Tables

  • Gasoline Price by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Diesel Price by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Residential Electricity Rates by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • CNG Price by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • LPG Price by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual Road Transportation Sector Energy Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual LDV Energy Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual MHDV Energy Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual Fuel Consumption by Fuel Type, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual Road Transportation Sector Oil Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual LDV Oil Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual MHDV Oil Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual Road Transportation Sector Gasoline Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual LDV Gasoline Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual MHDV Gasoline Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual Road Transportation Sector Diesel Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual LDV Diesel Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual MHDV Diesel Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual Road Transportation Sector Ethanol Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual Road Transportation Sector Biodiesel Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual Road Transportation Sector Drop-In Biofuels Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual Road Transportation Sector Natural Gas Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual LDV Natural Gas Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual MHDV Natural Gas Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual MHDV LNG Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual Road Transportation Sector LPG Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual LDV LPG Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual MHDV LPG Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual Road Transportation Sector Electricity Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual LDV Electricity Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual MHDV Electricity Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual Road Transportation Sector Hydrogen Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual LDV Hydrogen Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual MHDV Hydrogen Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
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