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世界の燃料消費量 - 道路輸送用の各種燃料 (液体燃料、電気、天然ガス、LPG、水素) の消費量と、自動モビリティシステム (AMS) の影響度:予測と分析 (2016〜2035年)

Market Data - Global Fuels Consumption - Road Transportation Consumption of Liquid Fuels, Electricity, Natural Gas, LPG, and Hydrogen and Impacts of Automated Mobility Systems: Global Forecasts and Analysis 2016-2035

発行 Navigant Research 商品コード 310287
出版日 ページ情報 英文 40 Pages; 73 Tables, Charts & Figures
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世界の燃料消費量 - 道路輸送用の各種燃料 (液体燃料、電気、天然ガス、LPG、水素) の消費量と、自動モビリティシステム (AMS) の影響度:予測と分析 (2016〜2035年) Market Data - Global Fuels Consumption - Road Transportation Consumption of Liquid Fuels, Electricity, Natural Gas, LPG, and Hydrogen and Impacts of Automated Mobility Systems: Global Forecasts and Analysis 2016-2035
出版日: 2016年12月21日 ページ情報: 英文 40 Pages; 73 Tables, Charts & Figures
概要

世界の自動車業界では今後、自動車部品の電化やコネクティビティの改良、自律走行技術の開発などにより、道路輸送向けのエネルギー消費量やコスト構造が大幅に変化する見通しです。自動モビリティシステム (AMS:自動走行システム) や小型車 (LDV) の開発・普及により、時間はかかりますが、全体的なエネルギー効率の完全が図られるものと思われます。

当レポートでは、世界の輸送業における今後の燃料消費量の見通しについて分析し、代替的燃料の主な普及促進要因や現在の開発状況、各種燃料/エネルギー源の消費量の予測値、今後の技術開発の方向性と影響度などについて調査・考察しております。

第1章 エグゼクティブ・サマリー

  • 概況
  • 範囲
  • 市場予測

第2章 市場予測

  • イントロダクション
  • 範囲
  • 分析手法
    • 自動車使用台数の予測
    • パワートレイン別の分類
    • 新車市場
    • 車両走行距離 (VMT)
    • 燃費
  • 分析結果
    • 石油
    • ガソリン
    • ディーゼル燃料
    • バイオ燃料
      • エタノール
      • バイオディーゼル
      • ドロップイン・バイオ燃料
    • 電気
    • 水素
    • 天然ガス
    • LPG (液化石油ガス)
  • 結論・提言

第3章 略語・頭字語一覧

第4章 目次

第5章 図表一覧

第6章 分析範囲・情報源・分析手法・注記

図表一覧

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目次
Product Code: MD-GFC-16

The next decade of innovations in automotive technologies is likely to dramatically change the process by which passengers and goods are moved. Developments in vehicle electrification, connectivity, and automated driving are creating potential for new business models in transportation services and significant savings in transportation costs. At the confluence of these developments lies a timely, cost efficient, and well-organized transportation system. The lengthy lifespan of vehicles relative to other consumer products will, however, spread the revolutionary impact on the existing transportation system and regional fuels markets over decades.

Displacing oil as the leading transportation energy resource has long been a policy goal of global governments. The emergence of automated mobility systems (AMSs) adds a layer of complexity to the prospects of these policies and the various fuels markets. Low-cost, efficient travel is likely to encourage greater use of passenger travel through light duty vehicles (LDVs), which may come at the cost of more efficient public transit options. The result is likely to increase overall transportation sector energy consumption. Vehicle fuels that compete well in small LDV segments will see more demand from this shift than those in large LDV segments because automated services are likely to utilize smaller vehicles.

This report provides an update to Navigant Research's Global Fuels Consumption model, with a focus on how emerging AMSs may affect regional fuels markets. The study assesses the potential impacts to the fuels markets through four scenarios of AMS penetration (no adoption, low, mid, and high). Global forecasts for road fuel consumption for LDVs and medium and heavy duty vehicles (MHDVs), segmented by region, fuel, and scenario, extend through 2035. Although this report focuses on the effects of automated technologies on passenger vehicle energy consumption, forecasts also include the fuel consumption of goods vehicles.

Key Questions Addressed:

  • What is the impact of alternative fuels and alternative fuel vehicles on the global fuels supply and markets?
  • What impact are advances in vehicle fuel economy having on the conventional fuels (gasoline and diesel) supply and markets?
  • What are the fastest-growing alternative fuels by region?
  • What are the major factors and variables in assessing demand for road transportation fuels?
  • What are the market drivers and challenges for each fuel type?
  • How will specific fuels benefit from advances in automated mobility systems (AMSs)?
  • How will overall energy consumption be affected by AMSs?
  • How will market segments be affected by AMSs?

Who needs this report?

  • Utilities
  • EV supply equipment (EVSE) providers and manufacturers
  • Oil & gas companies
  • Biofuels producers
  • Natural gas and hydrogen infrastructure developers
  • Battery suppliers
  • Government agencies
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

  • 1.1 Overview
  • 1.2 Scope
  • 1.3 Market Forecasts

2. Market Forecasts

  • 2.1 Introduction
  • 2.2 Scope
  • 2.3 Methodology
    • 2.3.1 Forecasting Vehicles in Use
    • 2.3.2 Powertrain Segmentation
    • 2.3.3 New Vehicle Markets
    • 2.3.4 Vehicle Miles Traveled
    • 2.3.5 Vehicle Efficiency
  • 2.4 Results
    • 2.4.1 Oil
    • 2.4.2 Gasoline
    • 2.4.3 Diesel
    • 2.4.4 Biofuels
      • 2.4.4.1 Ethanol
      • 2.4.4.2 Biodiesel
      • 2.4.4.3 Drop-In
    • 2.4.5 Electricity
    • 2.4.6 Hydrogen
    • 2.4.7 Natural Gas
    • 2.4.8 Autogas
  • 2.5 Conclusions and Recommendations

3. Acronym and Abbreviation List

4. Table of Contents

5. Table of Charts and Figures

6. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

  • Effects of Automation on Cost per Mile of Transportation Network Company Service
  • Passenger Miles by Mode and Country or Region: 2012
  • Average Annual Vehicle Miles Traveled of Major Vehicle Categories
  • Historical Fleet CO2 Emissions Performance and Current or Proposed Passenger Vehicle Standards: 2000-2025
  • Road Transportation Energy Consumption Difference between No Adoption and High Scenarios, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • Automated Vehicle Penetration of Vehicles in Use by Region and Scenario, World Markets: 2035
  • LDVs in Use by Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • MHDVs in Use by Scenario: World Markets: 2016-2035
  • Oil Price by Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • BEV Battery Price by Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV Sales Difference between No Adoption and High Scenarios by Primary Fuel, World Markets: 2035
  • MHDV Sales Difference between No Adoption and High Scenarios by Primary Fuel, World Markets: 2035
  • Vehicle Miles Traveled by Fuel (No Adoption Scenario), World Markets: 2016-2035
  • Fuel Consumption Differences between No Adoption and High Scenarios by Region, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • Fuel Consumption Differences between Scenarios, World Markets: 2035
  • Road Transportation Energy Consumption by Fuel (No Adoption Scenario), World Markets: 2016-2035
  • Oil Consumption by Scenario, World Markets: 2035
  • Road Transportation Gasoline Consumption by Region (No Adoption Scenario), World Markets: 2016-2035
  • Road Transportation Diesel Consumption by Region (No Adoption Scenario), World Markets: 2016-2035
  • Road Transportation Biofuels Consumption by Fuel (No Adoption Scenario), World Markets: 2016-2035
  • Road Transportation Electricity Consumption by Region (No Adoption Scenario), World Markets: 2016-2035
  • Road Transportation Hydrogen Consumption by Region (No Adoption Scenario), World Markets: 2016-2035
  • Road Transportation Natural Gas Consumption by Region (No Adoption Scenario), World Markets: 2016-2035
  • Road Transportation Autogas Consumption by Region (No Adoption Scenario), World Markets: 2016-2035

List of Tables

  • Automated Mobility Penetration Scenario by Region, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • Oil Price by Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • BEV Battery Price by Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Energy Consumption by Region, No Adoption Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Energy Consumption by Region, Low Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Energy Consumption by Region, Mid Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Energy Consumption by Region, High Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Energy Consumption by Fuel, No Adoption Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2050
  • LDV and MHDV Consumption by Fuel and Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Oil Consumption by Region, No Adoption Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Oil Consumption by Region, Low Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Oil Consumption by Region, Mid Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Oil Consumption by Region, High Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Gasoline Consumption by Region, No Adoption Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Gasoline Consumption by Region, Low Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Gasoline Consumption by Region, Mid Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Gasoline Consumption by Region, High Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Diesel Consumption by Region, No Adoption Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Diesel Consumption by Region, Low Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Diesel Consumption by Region, Mid Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Diesel Consumption by Region, High Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Ethanol Consumption by Region, No Adoption Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Ethanol Consumption by Region, Low Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Ethanol Consumption by Region, Mid Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Ethanol Consumption by Region, High Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Biodiesel Consumption by Region, No Adoption Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Biodiesel Consumption by Region, Low Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Biodiesel Consumption by Region, Mid Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Biodiesel Consumption by Region, High Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Drop-in Biofuels Consumption by Region, No Adoption Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Drop-in Biofuels Consumption by Region, Low Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Drop-in Biofuels Consumption by Region, Mid Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Drop-in Biofuels Consumption by Region, High Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Electricity Consumption by Region, No Adoption Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Electricity Consumption by Region, Low Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Electricity Consumption by Region, Mid Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Electricity Consumption by Region, High Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Hydrogen Consumption by Region, No Adoption Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Hydrogen Consumption by Region, Low Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Hydrogen Consumption by Region, Mid Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Hydrogen Consumption by Region, High Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Natural Gas Consumption by Region, No Adoption Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Natural Gas Consumption by Region, Low Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Natural Gas Consumption by Region, Mid Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Natural Gas Consumption by Region, High Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Autogas Consumption by Region, No Adoption Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Autogas Consumption by Region, Low Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Autogas Consumption by Region, Mid Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Autogas Consumption by Region, High Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
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