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市場調査レポート

仮想発電所(VPP): 世界市場分析および市場予測

Virtual Power Plants - Demand Response, Supply-Side and Mixed Asset VPPs: Global Market Analysis and Forecasts

発行 Navigant Research 商品コード 223476
出版日 ページ情報 英文 99 Pages; 62 Tables, Charts & Figures
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仮想発電所(VPP): 世界市場分析および市場予測 Virtual Power Plants - Demand Response, Supply-Side and Mixed Asset VPPs: Global Market Analysis and Forecasts
出版日: 2014年06月16日 ページ情報: 英文 99 Pages; 62 Tables, Charts & Figures
概要

エネルギー市場の進化は加速を続けており、分散型エネルギー源(DER)にますます軸足を置く方向にあります。この双方向性で複雑さが高まる電力需給管理の有力なソリューションとして仮想発電所(VPP)があり、世界的な市場成長を迎えています。世界のVPP事業者の年間収益総額は2014年における11億米ドルから、2023年には53億米ドルにまで拡大するものと予測されます。

当レポートは、世界の仮想発電所(VPP)市場について、特に3つの主要分野である需要応答VPP、供給サイドVPP、また混成電力資産VPPに焦点を当て、市場の注目点、市場成長促進要因、およびVPP導入上の課題を詳細に分析しています。これらの調査・分析結果を基に発電容量とベンダー収益について2023年に至る市場予測を行っています。この市場予測については市場分野別、地域別、また市場シナリオ別のきめ細かな分析も提供しています。さらに当レポートは主要なVPP関連技術を検証し、また主要企業の企業プロファイルを含め、市場競争状況についての詳細な情報および分析結果を提供しています。

第1章 エグゼクティブ・サマリー

  • 仮想発電所(VPP)と新たなエネルギークラウド

第2章 市場の課題

  • VPP: 定義および市場分類
    • Navigant ResearchによるVPPの定義
    • 3つの主要なVPP分野
      • 需要応答VPP
      • 供給サイドVPP
      • 混成電力資産VPP
    • VPP対マイクログリッド
      • ケーススタディ: VPPとマイクログリッドがオーバーラップしたデンマークでの経験から学ぶこと
  • VPPのビジネスケース
    • 分散型エネルギー源の効率的活用
    • 自動需要応答との協調
    • 新しいユーティリティ・ビジネスモデルの出現
    • 急拡大につながるVPPの価値提案
  • 現在の市場成長促進要因
    • 成熟を迎えるスマートメーター市場
    • 電力事業の分散と変電所自動化動向
    • さまざまな再生可能エネルギー発電の世界的拡大
    • 再生可能エネルギー発電構想に対する電力事業者と監督官庁の抵抗
    • グリッドアンシラリーサービスを提供する新興の組織化された市場
    • 需要応答に関する米国連邦エネルギー規制委員会(FERC)命令
  • VPP導入上の課題
    • 需給に応じたダイナミックなエネルギー価格付けが可能な体制の不足
    • 電力スマートグリッドに対する抵抗勢力
    • VPP標準規格、認証制度、および財産権制度の不足
    • 最適なVPPビジネスモデルとは
      • ビジネスモデル・ケーススタディ

第3章 技術的課題

  • VPPの実現技術概要
  • 分散型電源(DG)
    • 利点と欠点
    • 商用化時期
  • スマートメーター
    • 利点と欠点
    • 商用化時期
  • 需要応答(DR)
    • 利点と欠点
    • 商用化時期
  • スマート・インバーター
    • 利点と欠点
    • 商用化時期
  • 高性能エネルギーストレージ
    • 利点と欠点
    • 商用化時期
  • プラグイン電気自動車
    • 利点と欠点
    • 商用化時期
  • スマートグリッド・ネットワーキングソフトウェア

第4章 主要企業

  • VPPの市場競争状況
  • 電力事業者
    • DONG Energy
    • Duke Energy
    • RWE
  • 大規模技術会社
    • Alstom Grid
    • Bosch
    • GE Digital Energy
    • IBM
    • Schneider Electric
    • Siemens
  • ソフトウェア企業
    • ENBALA Power Networks
    • Joule Assets
    • Power Analytics
    • Power Assure
    • Spirae
    • Ventyx/ABB
    • Viridity Energy
  • 需要応答アグリゲータ
    • Comverge
    • Consert
    • Cooper Power Systems/Eaton
    • Customized Energy Solutions
    • EnerNOC

第5章 市場予測

  • VPP市場予測概要
    • 市場シナリオ
    • 主要なVPP地域市場
      • 米国
      • ドイツ
      • デンマーク
      • 英国
      • 日本
    • 収益予測手法
  • 需要応答VPP
    • 北米
    • 欧州
    • アジア太平洋
    • ラテンアメリカ
    • 中東・アフリカ
  • 供給サイドVPP
  • 混成電力資産VPP

第6章 企業ディレクトリ

第7章 略語リスト

第8章 目次

第9章 付表・付図

第10章 調査範囲、情報源および調査手法、注釈

このページに掲載されている内容は最新版と異なる場合があります。詳細はお問い合わせください。

目次
Product Code: VPP-14

Demand Response, Supply-Side, and Mixed Asset VPPs: Global Market Analysis and Forecasts

The evolution of energy markets is accelerating in the direction of a greater reliance upon distributed energy resources (DER). Successful strategies to manage this increasing two-way complexity are being deployed today all over the world. One such strategy is a virtual power plant (VPP), which can be viewed as a manifestation of the concept of transactive energy. Essentially, the VPP can combine a rich diversity of independent resources into a network via sophisticated planning, scheduling, and bidding of DER-based services.

Several recent trends are creating an environment conducive to VPPs. These include the increasing penetration of smart meters and other smart grid technologies, growth in variable renewable generation, and emerging markets for ancillary services. However, challenges to commercial rollouts of VPPs remain, including the lack of reliance upon dynamic, real-time pricing and consumer pushback against the smart grid. The end goal for this market is the mixed asset VPP segment, as it brings distributed generation (DG) and demand response (DR) together to provide a synergistic sharing of grid resources. Navigant Research forecasts that total annual VPP vendor revenue will grow from $1.1 billion in 2014 to $5.3 billion in 2023 under a base scenario.

This Navigant Research report analyzes the global VPP market, with a focus on three primary segments: DR, supply-side, and mixed asset VPPs. The study provides an analysis of the market issues, including business cases, market drivers, and implementation challenges, associated with VPPs. Global market forecasts for power capacity and vendor revenue, broken out by segment, region, and scenario, extend through 2023. The report also examines the key technologies related to VPPs, as well as the competitive landscape.

Key Questions Addressed:

  • What is the Navigant Research definition of a virtual power plant (VPP)?
  • How do the market dynamics differ for the three VPP market segments: demand response (DR), supply-side, and mixed asset?
  • What technologies are being deployed within VPPs globally?
  • Where are the projected hot spots for the three primary VPP segments over the next 10 years?
  • How do VPP business models differ among vendors?
  • How does the VPP fit into transactive energy trends?
  • Why is the VPP the ultimate example of the energy cloud concept?

Who needs this report?

  • Smart grid hardware and software vendors
  • Grid operators and transmission companies
  • Utilities
  • Energy storage manufacturers
  • Demand response aggregators
  • Solar and wind companies
  • Government agencies
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

  • 1.1 Virtual Power Plants and the Emerging Energy Cloud

2. Market Issues

  • 2.1 Virtual Power Plants: Definitions and Market Segments
    • 2.1.1 Navigant Research VPP Definition
    • 2.1.2 Three Primary VPP Segments
      • 2.1.2.1 DR VPPs
      • 2.1.2.2 Supply-Side VPPs
      • 2.1.2.3 Mixed Asset VPPs
    • 2.1.3 VPPs versus Microgrids
    • 2.1.3.1 Case Study: Lessons Learned from Denmark on VPP and Microgrid Overlap
  • 2.2 The Business Case for VPPs
    • 2.2.1 Better DER Asset Utilization
    • 2.2.2 Synergy with ADR
    • 2.2.3 Emergence of New Utility Business Models
    • 2.2.4 Tipping Point Value Propositions for VPPs
  • 2.3 Current Market Drivers
    • 2.3.1 Maturing Smart Meter Markets
    • 2.3.2 Utility Distribution and Substation Automation Trends
    • 2.3.3 Global Growth in Variable Renewable Generation
    • 2.3.4 Utility and Regulator Pushback on Renewables Incentives
    • 2.3.5 Emerging Organized Markets for Grid Ancillary Services
    • 2.3.6 FERC Orders on DR
  • 2.4 Implementation Challenges
    • 2.4.1 Lack of Dynamic Energy Pricing
    • 2.4.2 Pushback against the Utility Smart Grid
    • 2.4.3 Lack of VPP Standards, Certifications, and Property Rights
    • 2.4.4 What Is the Best VPP Business Model?
      • 2.4.4.1 Business Model Case Study: How Ventyx Leverages the Cloud for VPPs

3. Technology Issues

  • 3.1 VPP-Enabling Technology Overview
  • 3.2 DG
    • 3.2.1 Pros and Cons
    • 3.2.2 Commercial Time Horizon
  • 3.3 Smart Meters
    • 3.3.1 Pros and Cons
    • 3.3.2 Commercialization Time Horizon
  • 3.4 DR
    • 3.4.1 Pros and Cons
    • 3.4.2 Commercial Time Horizon
  • 3.5 Smart Inverters
    • 3.5.1 Pros and Cons
    • 3.5.2 Commercial Time Horizon
  • 3.6 Advanced Energy Storage
    • 3.6.1 Pros and Cons
    • 3.6.2 Commercial Time Horizon
  • 3.7 PEVs
    • 3.7.1 Pros and Cons
    • 3.7.2 Commercial Time Horizon
  • 3.8 Smart Grid Networking Software

4. Key Industry Players

  • 4.1 The VPP Competitive Landscape
  • 4.2 Utilities
    • 4.2.1 DONG Energy
    • 4.2.2 Duke Energy
    • 4.2.3 RWE
  • 4.3 Large Technology Players
    • 4.3.1 Alstom Grid
    • 4.3.2 Bosch
    • 4.3.3 GE Digital Energy
    • 4.3.4 IBM
    • 4.3.5 Schneider Electric
    • 4.3.6 Siemens
  • 4.4 Pure Software Firms
    • 4.4.1 ENBALA Power Networks
    • 4.4.2 Joule Assets
    • 4.4.3 Power Analytics
    • 4.4.4 Power Assure
    • 4.4.5 Spirae
    • 4.4.6 Ventyx/ABB
    • 4.4.7 Viridity Energy
  • 4.5 DR Aggregators
    • 4.5.1 Comverge
    • 4.5.2 Consert
    • 4.5.3 Cooper Power Systems/Eaton
    • 4.5.4 Customized Energy Solutions
    • 4.5.5 EnerNOC

5. Market Forecasts

  • 5.1 VPP Market Forecast Overview
    • 5.1.1 Scenarios
    • 5.1.2 Five Leading VPP Markets
      • 5.1.2.1 United States
      • 5.1.2.2 Germany
      • 5.1.2.3 Denmark
      • 5.1.2.4 United Kingdom
      • 5.1.2.5 Japan
    • 5.1.3 Revenue Forecast Methodology
  • 5.2 DR VPPs
    • 5.2.1 North America
    • 5.2.2 Europe
    • 5.2.3 Asia Pacific
    • 5.2.4 Latin America
    • 5.2.5 Middle East & Africa
  • 5.3 Supply-Side VPPs
    • 5.3.1 North America
    • 5.3.2 Europe
    • 5.3.3 Asia Pacific
    • 5.3.4 Latin America
    • 5.3.5 Middle East & Africa
  • 5.4 Mixed Asset VPPs
    • 5.4.1 North America
    • 5.4.2 Europe
    • 5.4.3 Asia Pacific
    • 5.4.4 Latin America
    • 5.4.5 Middle East & Africa
  • 5.5 Conclusions and Recommendations

6. Company Directory

7. Acronym and Abbreviation List

8. Table of Contents

9. Table of Charts and Figures

10. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

  • VPP Conceptual Diagram
  • Germany's RCPP
  • Cell Controller Hybrid Microgrid/VPP R&D Project
  • Relationship of Financial and Physical Topology of VPPs
  • Hierarchy of Resource Costs
  • Smart Meter Deployment Penetration Levels, United States: 2012
  • Today's Bidirectional Prosumer Power System
  • Subsidies for Energy Resources: 2008-2010
  • Denmark's Market Redesign for VPPs
  • Key Sources of Flexible Consumption Candidates for VPPs, Denmark: 2015-2035
  • Solar PV Cheaper Than Retail Utility Power in Southern Germany
  • Cutting Peak Demand through Wide Deployment of DG
  • Duck Graph of Renewable Energy Integration: 2013-2020
  • Smart Inverter Functionality
  • V2G Linkages to Smart Grid Services
  • McAlpine Microgrid Schematic
  • DER Schedule and Dispatch Evolution for VPPs
  • Schneider Electric's Analogy between Amazon and VPP
  • DR Reinvented via Two-Way Communication Relationships into VPPs
  • Total Annual VPP Vendor Revenue by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • ADR Power Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Smart Meter Unit Shipments by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Annual Solar PV Installed Capacity and Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2011-2020
  • Installed Energy Storage Power Capacity in Microgrids by Region, World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Total Annual VPP Power Capacity by Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Total Annual VPP Power Capacity by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Total Annual VPP Vendor Revenue by Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Total Annual DR VPP Power Capacity by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Total Annual DR VPP Vendor Revenue by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Total Annual Supply-Side VPP Power Capacity by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Total Annual Supply-Side VPP Vendor Revenue by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Total Annual Mixed Asset VPP Power Capacity by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Total Annual Mixed Asset VPP Vendor Revenue by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023

List of Tables

  • DR VPP vs. Central Station Plant Comparison
  • DR VPP SWOT Analysis
  • Supply-Side VPP SWOT Analysis
  • Mixed Asset VPP SWOT Analysis
  • Comparison between VPPs and Microgrids
  • DG for VPPs SWOT Analysis
  • Operating and Cost Characteristics of DG Technologies for VPPs: 2014
  • Smart Meters for VPPs SWOT Analysis
  • DR for VPPs SWOT Analysis
  • Smart Inverters for VPPs SWOT Analysis
  • Energy Storage Ancillary Service Characteristics Relevant to VPPs
  • Advanced Energy Storage for VPPs SWOT Analysis
  • PEVs for VPPs SWOT Analysis
  • DONG Energy SWOT Analysis
  • Siemens SWOT Analysis
  • Ventyx SWOT Analysis
  • EnerNOC SWOT Analysis
  • Total Annual VPP Power Capacity by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Total Annual VPP Power Capacity by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Total Annual VPP Power Capacity by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Total Annual VPP Vendor Revenue by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Total Annual VPP Vendor Revenue by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Total Annual VPP Vendor Revenue by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Total Annual DR VPP Power Capacity by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Total Annual DR VPP Vendor Revenue by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Total Annual Supply-Side VPP Power Capacity by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Total Annual Supply-Side VPP Vendor Revenue by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Total Annual Mixed Asset VPP Power Capacity by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Total Annual Mixed Asset VPP Vendor Revenue by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
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