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分散型太陽光発電の世界市場予測:市場成長促進因子と阻害因子・技術動向・競合情勢

Distributed Solar PV: Market Drivers and Barriers, Technology Trends, Competitive Landscape and Global Market Forecasts

発行 Navigant Research 商品コード 219613
出版日 ページ情報 英文 78 Pages; 56 Tables, Charts & Figures
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分散型太陽光発電の世界市場予測:市場成長促進因子と阻害因子・技術動向・競合情勢 Distributed Solar PV: Market Drivers and Barriers, Technology Trends, Competitive Landscape and Global Market Forecasts
出版日: 2015年07月14日 ページ情報: 英文 78 Pages; 56 Tables, Charts & Figures
概要

世界の太陽光発電設置による年間収益は、2024年に1516億米ドルを上回ると予測されています。

当レポートでは、分散型システムに注目した世界の太陽光発電容量・収益予測を地域・主要国別に提供しており、各地域における政策課題・市場成長促進因子・予測期間中の平均価格、および主要企業のプロファイルなどをまとめ、お届けいたします。

第1章 エグゼクティブサマリー

第2章 市場課題

  • 分散型太陽光発電の定義
  • 分散型太陽光発電市場の概要・主要動向
    • 勢いを得る分散型発電
    • グリッドパリティに達する太陽光発電
    • 産業の統合
  • 市場成長促進因子・法律/規制当局
    • 金銭的インセンティブ・公共制度・取引戦争
    • ネットメータリング政策
    • 再生可能エネルギー認証
  • ビジネスモデル革新
    • Yieldco (イルドコ)
    • ユーティリティの分散型太陽光発電資産所有モデル
    • グリーンボンド債権
    • 住宅・商業用太陽光発電のリースおよび電力購入合意
    • コミュニティソーラー・マイクログリッド
  • 実装上の課題
    • グリッドとの相互接続およびユーティリティが恐れる再生可能エネルギー普及の高さ
    • 規格・認可

第3章 技術課題

  • PVモジュールの供給過剰がもたらす大幅な価格低下
  • インバーターおよびシステム価格バランスの下落
  • モジュールレベルのパワーエレクトロニクス概要
    • マイクロインバーター
    • DCオプティマイザー
  • エネルギーストレージ
    • ドイツ
    • 日本
    • エネルギーストレージ市場の発展
    • エネルギークラウド

第4章 主要企業

  • 概要
  • 依然として重要な政策・インセンティブ
  • 分散型太陽光発電企業
    • IKEA Solar
    • Lightsource Renewable Energy
    • SolarCity
    • SunEdison
    • SunRun
    • Vivint Solar
  • マイクログリッド・エネルギーストレージソリューション
    • Dynapower
    • E3/DC
    • Green Mountain Power
    • Moixa Energy Holdings
    • S&C Electric Company

第5章 市場予測

  • 分散型太陽光発電システム
    • 北米
    • 欧州
    • アジア太平洋地域
    • ラテンアメリカ、中東、およびアフリカ
  • 結論・提言

第6章 企業ディレクトリー

第7章 頭字語・略語リスト

第8章 目次

第9章 図表

第10章 調査範囲・ソース・手法、メモ

図表

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目次
Product Code: DSEG-15

Market Drivers and Barriers, Technology Trends, Competitive Landscape, and Global Market Forecasts

There is no one single solar PV market. Local market conditions, retail electricity rates, incentives, and types of systems all vary widely and dramatically affect the cost of a system and its applicability to a region. Following years of solar PV module oversupply and unsustainable, often artificially low pricing, demand has finally caught up. 2015 is expected to be the year that the global solar PV market shifts from a high-cost, subsidized source of energy to a role in which it can compete with and displace other technologies.

Market activity is shifting from Europe to Asia Pacific and the United States as these markets reach maturity and near grid parity in terms of costs. There is also considerable opportunity in other regions, led by Chile, South Africa, and the Middle East. At the same time, solar PV is becoming a commodity. Solar PV technology costs have steadily declined and pathways to further cost reductions are being pursued. By the end of the decade, solar PV is expected to be cost-competitive with retail electricity prices without subsidies in a significant portion of the world. According to Navigant Research, global annual revenue from solar PV installations is expected to surpass $151.6 billion in 2024.

This Navigant Research report provides solar PV capacity and revenue forecasts through 2024, with a focus on distributed systems, broken down by region and select country. Policy issues and market drivers are detailed for each region, along with average prices over the forecast period. The report also includes a detailed discussion of significant inflection points that will help shape the solar PV market over the next several years, as well as profiles of key industry players.

Key Questions Addressed:

  • How much solar PV capacity will be installed worldwide from 2015 to 2024?
  • What percentage of the solar PV installed in each country will be distributed (<1 MW) versus non-distributed (>1 MW)
  • What are the estimated region-specific installed solar PV system prices during the forecast period?
  • What impact will the expiration of the investment tax credit (ITC) have on the U.S. market?
  • Will China, India, Japan, and other countries meet their ambitious solar PV targets?
  • What is the forecast for solar PV revenue through 2024, broken down by market segment, region, and selected country?

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

  • 1.1. Distributed Solar Energy Generation Market Overview
  • 1.2. Distributed Solar PV Market Overview
  • 1.3. Distributed Solar PV Systems Forecast

2. Market Issues

  • 2.1. Defining Distributed Solar Energy Generation
  • 2.2. Distributed Solar PV Market Overview and Key Trends
    • 2.2.1. DG Gains Ground
    • 2.2.2. Solar PV Reaching Grid Parity
    • 2.2.3. Industry Consolidation
  • 2.3. Market Drivers and Legislative/Regulatory Mandates
    • 2.3.1. Financial Incentives, Public Policies, and Trade Wars
      • 2.3.1.1. FITs
        • 2.3.1.1.1. North America
        • 2.3.1.1.2. Europe
        • 2.3.1.1.3. Asia Pacific
    • 2.3.2. Net Metering Policies
    • 2.3.3. Renewable Energy Certificates
  • 2.4. Business Model Innovations
    • 2.4.1. Solar Yieldcos
    • 2.4.2. Utility Distributed Solar PV Asset Ownership Models
    • 2.4.3. Green Bonds
    • 2.4.4. Residential and Commercial Solar PV Leases and Power Purchase Agreements
      • 2.4.4.1. Case Study: SolarCity
    • 2.4.5. Community Solar and Microgrids
  • 2.5. Implementation Issues
    • 2.5.1. Grid Interconnection and Utilities' Fear of Higher Penetration of Renewables
    • 2.5.2. Standards and Permitting

3. Technology Issues

  • 3.1. PV Module Oversupply Leads to Significant Price Reductions
  • 3.2. Inverter and Balance of System Price Declines
  • 3.3. Module-Level Power Electronics Overview
    • 3.3.1. Microinverters
    • 3.3.2. DC Optimizers
  • 3.4. Energy Storage
    • 3.4.1. Germany
    • 3.4.2. Japan
    • 3.4.3. Energy Storage Market Developments
    • 3.4.4. The Energy Cloud

4. Key Industry Players

  • 4.1. Overview
  • 4.2. Policies and Incentives Still Matter
  • 4.3. Distributed Solar Companies
    • 4.3.1. IKEA Solar
    • 4.3.2. Lightsource Renewable Energy
    • 4.3.3. SolarCity
    • 4.3.4. SunEdison
    • 4.3.5. SunRun
    • 4.3.6. Vivint Solar
  • 4.4. Microgrid and Energy Storage Solutions
    • 4.4.1. Dynapower
    • 4.4.2. E3/DC
    • 4.4.3. Green Mountain Power
    • 4.4.4. Moixa Energy Holdings
    • 4.4.5. S&C Electric Company

5. Market Forecasts

  • 5.1. Distributed Solar PV Systems
    • 5.1.1. North America
    • 5.1.2. Europe
    • 5.1.3. Asia Pacific
    • 5.1.4. Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa
  • 5.2. Conclusions and Recommendations

6. Company Directory

7. Acronym and Abbreviation List

8. Table of Contents

9. Table of Charts and Figures

10. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

  • Annual Solar PV Installed Capacity and Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Annual Distributed Solar PV Capacity Additions, France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom: 2011-2014
  • Annual Solar PV Installed Capacity and Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2011-2014
  • Annual Solar PV Installed Capacity by Type of installation, United States: 2011-2014
  • Annual Distributed Solar PV Installed Capacity by Type of Installation, United States: 2014
  • Average Electricity Prices, United States: January 2014-February 2015
  • Percentage of Annual Distributed and Non-Distributed Solar PV Installed Capacity, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Countries at Grid Parity, World Markets: 2015
  • Transmission and Distribution as a Portion of Electricity Bills, United States: 2014
  • Distributed Solar PV Installed System Prices (Non-Weighted Average) by Component, World Markets: 2011-2024
  • Cost Comparison of Residential Solar PV Installation Costs, United States, Japan, Australia, and Germany: 2014
  • Cost Comparison of Residential vs. Commercial Solar PV Installation Costs, United States: 2014
  • Annual Solar PV Installed Capacity by Type of Installation, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Annual Solar PV Installed Capacity and Revenue by Country, North America: 2015-2024
  • Annual Solar PV Installed Capacity by Type of Installation, United States: 2015-2024
  • Annual Solar PV Installed Capacity by Type of Installation, United Kingdom: 2015-2024
  • Annual Distributed Solar PV Installed Capacity and Revenue by Select Country, Europe: 2015-2024
  • Annual Solar PV Installed Capacity by Type of Installation, China: 2015-2024
  • Annual Solar PV Installed Capacity and Revenue by Country, Asia Pacific: 2015-2024
  • Annual Solar PV Installed Capacity by Type of Installation, South Africa: 2015-2024
  • Annual Solar PV Installed Capacity and Revenue by Region, Latin America, Middle East, and Africa: 2015-2024
  • Selected Merger and Acquisition Deals: 2011-2015
  • SolarCity Solar Lease Structure
  • Leading Community Solar Providers
  • German Utility Meets More Than 100% of Load with Solar and Wind on August 17, 2014
  • Module-Level Power Management
  • Module-Level Power Electronics Topologies Compared to Conventional String Inverter
  • Residential Solar PV Supply Chain in Japan

List of Tables

  • Annual Solar PV Installed Capacity by Country and Segment, World Markets: 2011-2024
  • Distributed Solar PV System Prices (Non-Weighted Average) by Component, World Markets: 2011-2024
  • Average Solar PV Installed Price (Non-Weighted) by Region and System Size, World Markets: 2011-2024
  • Annual Solar PV Revenue by Country, World Markets: 2011-2024
  • Annual Distributed Solar PV Installed Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2011-2024
  • Annual Distributed Solar PV Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2011-2024
  • Annual Non-Distributed Solar PV Installed Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2011-2024
  • Annual Non-Distributed Solar PV Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2011-2024
  • Percentage of Annual Distributed Solar PV Installed Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2011-2024
  • Percentage of Annual Non-Distributed Solar PV Installed Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2011-2024
  • Annual Distributed and Non-Distributed Solar PV Installed Capacity, World Markets: 2011-2024
  • Annual Distributed and Non-Distributed Solar PV, Percentage of Global Installations, and Revenue, Rest of World: 2011-2024
  • Solar PV Installed Capacity by State, United States: 2014
  • Solar PV Installed Capacity by Segment, United States: 2011-2014
  • Average Electricity Prices, United States: January 2014-February 2015
  • Countries at Grid Parity, World Markets: 2015
  • Transmission and Distribution as a Portion of Electricity Bills: February 2015
  • Comparison of Residential Solar PV Installation Costs, United States, Japan, Australia, and Germany: 2014
  • Cost Comparison of Residential vs. Commercial Solar PV Installation Costs, United States: 2014
  • Annual Distributed Solar PV Installed Capacity by State and Segment, United States: 2000-2014
  • Distributed Energy Generation Technology Comparison: 2015
  • Top 10 Solar PV Module Manufacturers: 2014
  • IKEA Solar SWOT Analysis
  • Lightsource Renewable Energy SWOT Analysis
  • SolarCity SWOT Analysis
  • SunEdison SWOT Analysis
  • SunRun SWOT Analysis
  • Vivint Solar SWOT Analysis
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