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市場調査レポート

電気自動車 (EV) 市場の予測:世界のライトデューティーハイブリッド・プラグインハイブリッド・バッテリー式EVの販売台数・保有台数の予測 (2015-2024年)

Electric Vehicle Market Forecasts: Global Forecasts for Light Duty Hybrid, Plug-In Hybrid, and Battery Electric Vehicle Sales and Vehicles in Use 2015-2024

発行 Navigant Research 商品コード 209206
出版日 ページ情報 英文 37 Pages; 90 Tables, Charts & Figures
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電気自動車 (EV) 市場の予測:世界のライトデューティーハイブリッド・プラグインハイブリッド・バッテリー式EVの販売台数・保有台数の予測 (2015-2024年) Electric Vehicle Market Forecasts: Global Forecasts for Light Duty Hybrid, Plug-In Hybrid, and Battery Electric Vehicle Sales and Vehicles in Use 2015-2024
出版日: 2015年12月17日 ページ情報: 英文 37 Pages; 90 Tables, Charts & Figures
概要

ハイブリッド (HEV)、プラグインハイブリッド (PHEV)、バッテリー式 (BEV) を含む電気自動車 (EV) の市場は時間の経過とともに大きく様変わりしていますが、今後5年における変化は世界の自動車産業およびエネルギー産業にさらに大きな影響を与えるものとなるでしょう。世界のライトデューティーEVの販売台数は2015年の260万台から、2024年には600万台 (ベースシナリオ) に増加すると予測されています。

当レポートでは、世界におけるライトデューティー電気自動車 (EV) の市場について調査し、市場背景および市場影響因子の分析、ライトデューティー車全体およびライトデューティーHEV・PHEV・BEVの販売台数および保有台数の推移と予測、自動車メーカー・地域・シナリオ別の分析、市場シェア実績などをまとめています。

第1章 エグゼクティブサマリー

  • イントロダクション
  • 調査範囲・定義
  • 市場予測

第2章 想定データ

  • 背景
  • 範囲と定義
  • 自動車の可用性
  • LDV市場:予測手法
  • EV市場:予測手法
    • 自動車メーカーの電化戦略
      • 戦略
      • ボディタイプ・クラス
      • ボディタイプ
      • クラス
      • プレゼンス
      • EVのアベイラビリティ
    • 消費者の選択
      • 車両価格
      • 政府の政策
      • 燃料価格
      • 自動車の特徴

第3章 市場予測

  • ライトデューティー車
  • EV
    • HEV:地域・メーカー別
    • PEV:地域・メーカー別
  • 総論・提言

第4章 頭字語・略語リスト

第5章 目次

第6章 図表

第7章 調査範囲・情報源と調査手法・注釈

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目次
Product Code: MD-EVMF-15

Global Forecasts for Light Duty Hybrid, Plug-In Hybrid, and Battery Electric Vehicle Sales and Vehicles in Use: 2015-2024

The end of 2015 marks the completion of the fifth full year of plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) sales to key markets from major automakers. The market for electric vehicles (Evs), which includes hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and battery electric vehicles (HEVs, PHEVs, and BEVs), has changed significantly over this time period, but the expected changes during the next 5 years will be even more impactful to the global automotive and energy industries.

The PEV market is now well-established in North America, Europe, and developed Asia Pacific markets due largely to strong government support through vehicle fuel efficiency regulations, as well as purchase incentives. Automakers are beginning to develop offerings that will overcome challenges to market acceptance, such as all-electric range, cost, and charging time. Meanwhile, companies within the electric power sector of global markets are determining how best they can take part in encouraging PEV market growth. Yet, weaknesses to widespread adoption of EV technologies do exist, such as the dive in oil prices that began in mid-2014. Additionally, now that national markets have found solid footing, some local governments are beginning to phase out or remove purchase incentives. Still, according to Navigant Research, the global light duty EV market is expected to grow from 2.6 million vehicle sales in 2015 to over 6.0 million in 2024 under a base scenario.

This Navigant Research report provides forecasts, market sizing, and market share analysis for the overall light duty vehicle (LDV) market and light duty HEVs, PHEVs, and BEVs. Global forecasts for annual LDV sales and vehicles in use, segmented by scenario (conservative, base, and aggressive), region, country, drivetrain, and automaker, extend through 2024. Also provided are forecasts by automaker and vehicle class (luxury vs. economy), along with discussion of the underlying forecast assumptions such as lithium ion (Li-ion) energy density, Li-ion battery prices, and retail fuel prices.

Key Questions Addressed:

  • How will the growth rates of light duty hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), and battery electric vehicles (BEVs) vary by region and country through 2024?
  • How many light duty HEVs, PHEVs, and BEVs will be on the roads through 2024?
  • What are the key factors driving growth in the light duty electric vehicle (EV) market?
  • How will light duty HEV, PHEV, and BEV sales be affected by other alternative fuel technologies?
  • Which HEV, PHEV, and BEV models are expected to be launched between 2015 and 2017?
  • What are the current government policies regarding Evs and how will changes affect sales?
  • How will fuel prices and advances in lithium ion (Li-ion) batteries affect light duty EV sales?

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

  • 1.1. Introduction
  • 1.2. Report Scope and Definitions
  • 1.3. Market Forecasts

2. Data Assumptions

  • 2.1. Background
  • 2.2. Report Scope and Definitions
  • 2.3. LDV Market Forecast Methodology
  • 2.4. EV Market Forecast Methodology
    • 2.4.1. Automaker Electrification Strategy
      • 2.4.1.1. Strategy
      • 2.4.1.2. Body Type and Class
      • 2.4.1.3. Body Type
      • 2.4.1.4. Class
      • 2.4.1.5. Presence
      • 2.4.1.6. EV Availability
    • 2.4.2. Consumer Choice
      • 2.4.2.1. Vehicle Pricing
      • 2.4.2.2. Government Policy
      • 2.4.2.3. Fuel Prices
      • 2.4.2.4. Vehicle Characteristics

3. Market Forecasts

  • 3.1. LDVs
  • 3.2. EVs
    • 3.2.1. HEVs
      • 3.2.1.1. Forecasts by Geography
      • 3.2.1.2. Forecasts by Automaker
    • 3.2.2. PEVs
      • 3.2.2.1. Forecasts by Geography
      • 3.2.2.2. Forecasts by Automaker
  • 3.3. Conclusions and Recommendations

4. Acronym and Abbreviation List

5. Table of Contents

6. Table of Charts and Figures

7. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

  • Light Duty EV Sales by Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Li-Ion Battery Price Decline by Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Price of Crude Oil by Scenario (2013 U.S. Dollars), World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Li-Ion Battery Pack Energy Density Improvement by Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty PEV Market Share by Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty HEV Sales by Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty HEV Market Share Country, World Markets: 2015
  • Light Duty PEV Sales vs. HEV Sales, Base Scenario, China: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty HEV Market Share by Automaker, World Markets: 2015
  • Light Duty Luxury HEV Market Share by Automaker, World Markets: 2015
  • Light Duty PEV Sales by Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty PEV Market Share by Country, World Markets: 2015
  • Light Duty PEV Sales by Country, Base Scenario, Top Five European Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty PEV Market Share by Automaker, World Markets: 2015
  • Luxury Light Duty PEV Sales by Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty Vehicles in Use by Region, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty BEV Sales by Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty PHEV Sales by Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty PEVs in Use by Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty BEVs in Use by Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty PHEVs in Use by Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty HEVs in Use by Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Luxury Light Duty BEV Sales by Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Luxury Light Duty PHEV Sales by Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Luxury Light Duty HEV Sales by Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty PEV Sales by Automaker, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty PEV Sales by Automaker, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty PEV Sales by Automaker, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024

List of Tables

  • Anticipated HEV, PHEV, and BEV Launches, North America: 2015-2017
  • Anticipated HEV, PHEV, and BEV Launches, Europe: 2015-2017
  • Anticipated HEV, PHEV, and BEV Launches, Asia Pacific: 2015-2017
  • Light Duty HEV, PHEV, and BEV Incentives by Select Country, World Markets: 2015
  • Average Gasoline Price by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Average Gasoline Price by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Average Gasoline Price by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Price of Crude Oil by Scenario (2013 U.S. Dollars), World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Li-Ion Battery Price Decline by Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Li-Ion Battery Pack Energy Density Improvement by Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty Vehicles in Use by Region, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty PEV Sales by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty BEV Sales by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty PHEV Sales by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty HEV Sales by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty PEV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty BEV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty PHEV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty HEV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty PEV Sales by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty BEV Sales by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty PHEV Sales by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty HEV Sales by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty PEVs in Use by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty BEVs in Use by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty PHEVs in Use by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty HEVs in Use by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty PEVs in Use by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty BEVs in Use by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty PHEVs in Use by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty HEVs in Use by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty PEVs in Use by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty BEVs in Use by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty PHEVs in Use by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty HEVs in Use by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Luxury Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Luxury Light Duty PEV Sales by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Luxury Light Duty BEV Sales by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Luxury Light Duty PHEV Sales by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Luxury Light Duty HEV Sales by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Luxury Light Duty PEV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Luxury Light Duty BEV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Luxury Light Duty PHEV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Luxury Light Duty HEV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Luxury Light Duty PEV Sales by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Luxury Light Duty BEV Sales by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Luxury Light Duty PHEV Sales by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Luxury Light Duty HEV Sales by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty PEV Sales by Automaker, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty BEV Sales by Automaker, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty PHEV Sales by Automaker, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty HEV Sales by Automaker, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty PEV Sales by Automaker, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty BEV Sales by Automaker, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty PHEV Sales by Automaker, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty HEV Sales by Automaker, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty PEV Sales by Automaker, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty BEV Sales by Automaker, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty PHEV Sales by Automaker, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty HEV Sales by Automaker, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
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