表紙
市場調査レポート

風力発電の将来コスト:風力発電の資本コスト、均等化発電原価(LCOE)、経済性、コスト、将来見通し

The Future Cost of Wind Power: Capital Costs, the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE), Economics, Costs and Future Outlook for Wind Power Generation

発行 Power Generation Research 商品コード 323225
出版日 ページ情報 英文 38 Pages; 12 Tables & 13 Figures
即納可能
価格
本日の銀行送金レート: 1USD=101.39円で換算しております。
Back to Top
風力発電の将来コスト:風力発電の資本コスト、均等化発電原価(LCOE)、経済性、コスト、将来見通し The Future Cost of Wind Power: Capital Costs, the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE), Economics, Costs and Future Outlook for Wind Power Generation
出版日: 2015年01月22日 ページ情報: 英文 38 Pages; 12 Tables & 13 Figures
概要

風力発電は、大きな資本を必要としますが、その大半が先行投資となっています。最大の資本コストの構成要素は、風力タービンで、陸上の風力発電設備における総資本コストの40%〜80%も占めています。

当レポートでは、風力発電の将来コストについて調査分析し、資本コスト、均等化発電原価(LCOE)、経済性、コスト、将来見通しなどについて、体系的な情報を提供しています。

第1章 風力発電の経済性

  • サマリー
  • イントロダクション
  • 風力タービンと資本コストの動向
  • 風力の均等化発電原価(LCOE)

第2章 風力発電の将来市場と経済見通し

  • サマリー
  • イントロダクション
    • コストの比較
    • 成長予測
    • 地域別の成長
      • 欧州
      • アジア
      • 北米
      • ラテンアメリカ
      • アフリカ
    • 結論
  • 用語集

図表

目次
Product Code: PGRFutCosWindJan15

Executive summary

Chapter 1: The economics of wind power

Wind power is capital intensive with most of the investment required upfront. The largest capital cost component is the turbine itself which can account for between 40% and 80% of the total capital cost of an onshore wind installation. Costs offshore are higher because of the more expensive operating environment and the greater difficulty establishing a foundation so the proportion of capital cost taken by the turbine is generally lower than onshore. Turbine cost fell from 1980 until 2002 when prices started to rise again, peaking in 2009 before falling further. Technological advances and greater overall efficiency are continuing to bring costs down. This is feeding into capital cost trends which are following turbine prices by falling. There are regional variations in capital costs, with costs lower in India and China than in Europe or the USA but regional differences are narrowing as the market becomes more global. With capital cost the dominant component of the cost of energy, the levelized cost of electricity from wind plants is falling too and onshore wind is beginning to compete with other technologies, particularly new coal. There is a growing consensus that onshore wind will reach parity in many parts of the world by the end of the decade, if not before. Offshore wind will take longer but could be competing with the main conventional sources of power by the middle or end of the third decade of the century.

Chapter 2: Future market and economic prospects for wind power generation

The cost of wind power has continued to fall compared to many other technologies over the past five years and is now approaching the level at which it can compete with conventional technologies. Power from natural gas and coal remains cheaper (without carbon capture and storage) but the steady growth in renewable penetration from both wind and wind power is leading to coal and gas-fired plants operating for less of the time, a factor which adversely affects their economics. On the other hand the low cost of wind power is leading governments to reduce subsidies to wind. By the end of the decade wind power could be the second cheapest source of electricity after natural gas in many markets. Growth of wind power is expected to continue strongly in the major markets of Europe, Asia and North America. Markets in Latin America are advancing more slowly and wind power in Africa remains a rarity.

Key features of this report

  • Analysis of wind power generation technology costs, concepts, drivers and components.
  • Assessment of electricity costs for different technologies in terms of the two fundamental yardsticks used for cost comparison, capital cost and the levelized cost of electricity.
  • Examination of the key wind power generation technologies costs.

Key benefits from reading this report

  • Realize up to date competitive intelligence through a comprehensive power cost analysis in wind power generation markets.
  • Assess wind power generation costs and analysis - including capital costs and levelized costs.
  • Quantify capital and levelized cost trends and how these vary regionally..

Key findings of this report

  • 1. India ($1,080/kW - $1,250/kW) and China ($1,360/kW - 1,370/kW) show the lowest capital costs and the USA ($1,830/kW) and Brazil ($1,670/kW) the highest..
  • 2. By 2014 the LCOE for a plan entering service in 2019 had fallen to $204/MWh.
  • 3. The lowest costs recorded in the table are in India, where the LCOE ranges from $47/MWh - $113/MWh, and China where the cost is estimated to be $49/MWh - $93/MWh.
  • 4. The range of levelized costs found for onshore wind was $75/MWh to $150/MWh.
  • 5. Offshore wind had a range of $130/MWh - 285/MWh and large solar PV $165/MWh to $400/MWh.

Key questions answered by this report

  • 1. What is wind power generation going to cost?
  • 2. Which wind power generation technology types will be the winners and which the losers in terms of power generated, cost and viability?
  • 3. Which wind power generation types are likely to find favour with manufacturers moving forward?

Why buy it

  • To utilise in-depth assessment and analysis of the current and future technological and market state of wind power, carried out by an industry expert with 30 years in the power generation industry.
  • Use cutting edge information and data.
  • Use the highest level of research carried out.
  • Utilize expert analysis to say what is happening in the market and what will happen next.
  • Save time and money by having top quality research done for you at a low cost.

Key areas covered by the report

Key products/categories profiled:

  • Energy
  • The Future Cost of Wind Power - Capital costs, the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), economics, costs and future outlook for wind power generation.

Key regions/countries covered:

  • Europe and United States of America. Global focus.

SAMPLE

Figure 3: Levelized cost trends from 2009 - 2014 ($/MWh), 2014

Figure 3 contains estimates for the future cost of offshore wind energy. This is expected to be much higher than onshore wind for the remainder of the decade. The estimates peaked in 2011 when the LCOE for offshore wind entering service in the USA in 2016 was put at $312/MWh. By 2014 the LCOE for a plan entering service in 2019 had fallen to $204/MWh.

Author biography

Dr. Paul Breeze

Dr. Paul Breeze has specialized in the electricity sector for the past 30 years. He is contributing editor for the monthly international magazine for the power industry, Modern Power Systems and a regular contributor to Power Engineering International. As a freelance writer he has written for The Financial Times, The Guardian, The Daily Telegraph, The Observer, New Scientist and The Economist. He is the author of energy sector reports for FT Energy, Business Insights and Power Generation Research and is the author of Power Generation Technologies published by Elsevier.

Table of Contents

  • About the author
  • Disclaimer
    • Note about authors and sources
  • Table of contents
  • Table of tables
  • Table of figures

Executive summary

  • Chapter 1: The economics of wind power
  • Chapter 2: Future market and economic prospects for wind power generation

Chapter 1. The economics of wind power

  • Summary
  • Introduction
  • Wind turbine and capital cost trends
  • Levelized cost of wind power

Chapter 2. Future market and economic prospects for wind power generation

  • Summary
  • Introduction
    • Cost comparisons
    • Growth predictions
    • Regional growth
      • Europe
      • Asia
      • North America
      • Latin America
      • Africa
    • Conclusion
  • List of abbreviations

Table of tables

  • Table 1: Breakdown of capital costs for onshore wind installation (%), 2013
  • Table 2: Wind, onshore and offshore capital cost trends from 2001-2013 ($kW), 2013
  • Table 3: Levelized cost trends from 2009 - 2014 ($/MWh), 2014
  • Table 4: Wind, regional capital and levelized costs ($/MWh), 2013
  • Table 5: Levelized cost variations for wind ($/MWh), 2013
  • Table 6: Levelized cost comparisons ($/MWh), 2013
  • Table 7: Levelized cost predictions 2019 and 2040 ($/MWh), 2014
  • Table 8: Levelized cost of wind power estimates 2013 - 2017 (£/MWh), 2013
  • Table 9: Onshore and offshore wind, levelized cost predictions 2014 - 2030 (£/MWh), 2013
  • Table 10: Global wind capacity growth forecasts 2013 - 2018 (MW), 2014
  • Table 11: Wind energy growth predictions 2010 - 2040 (TWh), 2013
  • Table 12: Regional wind capacity additions 2013 - 2018 (MW), 2014

Table of figures

  • Figure 1: Breakdown of capital costs for onshore wind installation (%), 2013
  • Figure 2: Wind, onshore and offshore capital cost trends from 2001-2013 ($kW), 2013
  • Figure 3: Levelized cost trends from 2009 - 2014 ($/MWh), 2014
  • Figure 4: Wind, regional capital costs ($/MWh), 2013
  • Figure 5: Wind, regional levelized costs ($/MWh), 2013
  • Figure 6: Levelized cost variations for wind ($/MWh), 2013
  • Figure 7: Levelized cost comparisons ($/MWh), 2013
  • Figure 8: Levelized cost predictions 2019 and 2040 ($/MWh), 2014
  • Figure 9: Levelized cost of wind power estimates 2013 - 2017 (£/MWh), 2013
  • Figure 10: Onshore and offshore wind, levelized cost predictions 2014 - 2030 (£/MWh), 2013
  • Figure 11: Global wind capacity growth forecasts 2013 - 2018 (MW), 2014
  • Figure 12: Wind energy growth predictions 2010 - 2040 (TWh), 2013
  • Figure 13: Regional wind capacity additions 2013 - 2018 (MW), 2014
Back to Top