The Future Cost of Wind Power: Capital Costs, the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE), Economics, Costs and Future Outlook for Wind Power Generation
|発行||Power Generation Research||商品コード||323225|
|出版日||ページ情報||英文 38 Pages; 12 Tables & 13 Figures
|風力発電の将来コスト：風力発電の資本コスト、均等化発電原価（LCOE）、経済性、コスト、将来見通し The Future Cost of Wind Power: Capital Costs, the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE), Economics, Costs and Future Outlook for Wind Power Generation|
|出版日: 2015年01月22日||ページ情報: 英文 38 Pages; 12 Tables & 13 Figures||
Chapter 1: The economics of wind power
Wind power is capital intensive with most of the investment required upfront. The largest capital cost component is the turbine itself which can account for between 40% and 80% of the total capital cost of an onshore wind installation. Costs offshore are higher because of the more expensive operating environment and the greater difficulty establishing a foundation so the proportion of capital cost taken by the turbine is generally lower than onshore. Turbine cost fell from 1980 until 2002 when prices started to rise again, peaking in 2009 before falling further. Technological advances and greater overall efficiency are continuing to bring costs down. This is feeding into capital cost trends which are following turbine prices by falling. There are regional variations in capital costs, with costs lower in India and China than in Europe or the USA but regional differences are narrowing as the market becomes more global. With capital cost the dominant component of the cost of energy, the levelized cost of electricity from wind plants is falling too and onshore wind is beginning to compete with other technologies, particularly new coal. There is a growing consensus that onshore wind will reach parity in many parts of the world by the end of the decade, if not before. Offshore wind will take longer but could be competing with the main conventional sources of power by the middle or end of the third decade of the century.
Chapter 2: Future market and economic prospects for wind power generation
The cost of wind power has continued to fall compared to many other technologies over the past five years and is now approaching the level at which it can compete with conventional technologies. Power from natural gas and coal remains cheaper (without carbon capture and storage) but the steady growth in renewable penetration from both wind and wind power is leading to coal and gas-fired plants operating for less of the time, a factor which adversely affects their economics. On the other hand the low cost of wind power is leading governments to reduce subsidies to wind. By the end of the decade wind power could be the second cheapest source of electricity after natural gas in many markets. Growth of wind power is expected to continue strongly in the major markets of Europe, Asia and North America. Markets in Latin America are advancing more slowly and wind power in Africa remains a rarity.
Figure 3: Levelized cost trends from 2009 - 2014 ($/MWh), 2014
Figure 3 contains estimates for the future cost of offshore wind energy. This is expected to be much higher than onshore wind for the remainder of the decade. The estimates peaked in 2011 when the LCOE for offshore wind entering service in the USA in 2016 was put at $312/MWh. By 2014 the LCOE for a plan entering service in 2019 had fallen to $204/MWh.
Dr. Paul Breeze
Dr. Paul Breeze has specialized in the electricity sector for the past 30 years. He is contributing editor for the monthly international magazine for the power industry, Modern Power Systems and a regular contributor to Power Engineering International. As a freelance writer he has written for The Financial Times, The Guardian, The Daily Telegraph, The Observer, New Scientist and The Economist. He is the author of energy sector reports for FT Energy, Business Insights and Power Generation Research and is the author of Power Generation Technologies published by Elsevier.