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将来の太陽光発電コスト:資本コスト、電力平準化コスト(LCOE)、エコノミクス、コストおよび太陽光発電の将来展望

The Future Cost of Solar PV Power: Capital Costs, the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE), Economics, Costs and Future Outlook for Solar Photovoltaic Power Generation

発行 Power Generation Research 商品コード 317174
出版日 ページ情報 英文 42 Pages; 13 Tables & 14 Figures
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将来の太陽光発電コスト:資本コスト、電力平準化コスト(LCOE)、エコノミクス、コストおよび太陽光発電の将来展望 The Future Cost of Solar PV Power: Capital Costs, the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE), Economics, Costs and Future Outlook for Solar Photovoltaic Power Generation
出版日: 2014年10月23日 ページ情報: 英文 42 Pages; 13 Tables & 14 Figures
概要

ドイツ、日本または台湾、および中国における結晶系太陽光発電モジュールの製造コストは下落しています。2009年の中国におけるモジュール価格は1.76ユーロ/Wでしたが、2011年末までに1ユーロ/W、2014年3月には0.59ユーロ/Wへ下落しました。

当レポートでは、発電の将来コストについて取り上げ、資本コスト、電力の平準化コスト、経済性、従来型と再生可能エネルギー技術とのバランスについて検証して、体系的な情報を提供しています。

第1章 太陽電池のエコノミクス

  • サマリー
  • イントロダクション
  • 資本コスト・コスト動向
  • 太陽光発電のエネルギーコスト・平準化コスト

第2章 太陽電池の将来市場および経済展望

  • サマリー
  • イントロダクション
  • コスト比較

世界の発電容量成長予測

  • 地域別の成長
    • 欧州
    • 北米
    • アジア・アジア太平洋地域
    • その他
  • 太陽光発電向け融資
  • 結論

図表

目次
Product Code: PGRFutCosPVOct14

Front Page Lead Graphic and Quote

image1

Figure 1 shows figures for the spot price for crystalline solar modules in Europe between 2009 and 2014. The table shows the cost of modules manufactured in Germany, in Japan or Taiwan, and in China. Inevitably, the latter are the cheapest across the period in question. In September 2009, the spot price for Chinese modules was €1.76/W. This had fallen to under €1/W by the end of 2011, and in March 2014 the spot price was €0.59/W.

Executive summary

Chapter 1. The economics of solar cells Solar cell costs have fallen rapidly over the past four to five years, and this has led to the technology becoming more competitive, in turn leading to cuts in subsidies for solar photovoltaic installations. With the cost and value of solar energy in flux, the US state of Minnesota has recently introduced a new, transparent approach to solar pricing that could for the benchmark for solar tariffs. The underlying capital cost of a solar PV installation depends in part on the type of installation - with small residential rooftop installations costing more than large utility installations. Costs also vary from country to country, with variations depending on a number of elements that are not intrinsically a part of the actual solar installation. In particular, the cost of rooftop installation in Germany is significantly lower than the same installation in the USA. It seems likely that installation costs are widely below US$3/W. The low cost of solar photovoltaic installations means that the cost of the electricity they produce has also fallen. For domestic rooftop installations, this cost is now below the cost of electricity from the grid in a number of important markets.

Chapter 2. Future market and economic prospects for solar cells The market for solar cells has shifted away from Europe, the main driver for the past decade, towards Asia and the Asia Pacific region. However the market is also broadening and growth can be expected in many parts of the world - that have previously not shown a strong take up. This is being driven by the competitiveness of solar photovoltaic technology - which can now compete in some areas without any subsidies. This will come in spite of an expected stabilization of the cost of solar modules. On one prediction, the size of the solar market, globally, will reach 100GW by 2018. Over the longer term, estimates for the amount of electricity that might be supplied globally by solar cells varies between 0.6% and 4% by 2035. In Europe it already supplied 3% of total electricity demand. Important regional markets include China, Japan, the USA, Australia, and Mexico. The development of new financial vehicles that attract private sector investment for solar installations could help lower the cost of financing solar photovoltaic projects, potentially leading to further cost reductions.

Key features of this report

  • Analysis of solar PV power generation technology costs
  • Assessment of electricity costs for different technologies in terms of the two fundamental yardsticks used for cost comparison, capital cost and the levelized cost of electricity.
  • Examination of the key solar PV power generation technologies costs.

Key benefits from reading this report

  • Realize up to date competitive intelligence through a comprehensive power cost analysis in solar PV power generation markets.
  • Assess solar PV power generation costs and analysis - including capital costs, overnight costs, and levelized costs.
  • Quantify capital and levelized cost trends and how these vary regionally

Key findings of this report

  • In March 2014, German modules were priced at €0.68/W and Japanese/Korean modules at €0.69/W. The continued price difference reflects a perception that Chinese modules are less robust and reliable than their competitors, but the margin is narrowing.
  • Based on an average installation cost for solar PV of US$3/W or US$3,000/kW, the technology had reached broad parity in ten states.
  • The actual cost of electricity to residential customers in the countries in the table vary from US$80/MWh in South Korea, where solar PV has not yet reached parity, to US$390/MWh in Mexico where parity is easily achieved

Key questions answered by this report

  • What are the drivers shaping and influencing power plant development in the electricity industry
  • What is solar PV power generation going to cost
  • Which solar PV power generation technology types will be the winners and which the losers in terms of power generated, cost and viability

Key areas covered by the report

Key products/categories profiled:

  • Energy
  • The Future Cost of Solar PV Power - Capital costs, the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), economics, costs and future outlook for solar photovoltaic power generation

Key regions/countries covered:

  • Europe and United States of America. Global focus.

Table of Contents

About the author

Disclaimer

  • Note about authors and sources

Table of contents

Table of tables

Table of figures

Executive summary

  • Chapter 1. The economics of solar cells
  • Chapter 2. Future market and economic prospects for solar cells

Chapter 1. The economics of solar cells

  • Summary
  • Introduction
  • Capital costs and cost trends
  • Energy costs and levelized costs for solar PV

Chapter 2. Future market and economic prospects for solar cells

  • Summary
  • Introduction
  • Cost comparisons

Global capacity growth predictions

  • Regional growth
    • Europe
    • North America
    • Asia and the Asia-Pacific region
    • Rest of the world
  • Solar financing
  • Conclusion

List of abbreviations

Table of tables

  • Table 1: Solar PV, European spot prices for crystalline solar cell modules from different sources, 2009 - 2014 (€/W), 2014
  • Table 2: Solar PV, European thin film spot prices 2009 - 2013 (€/W), 2014
  • Table 3: Solar PV, annual average US installed system price 2001 - 2013 (US$/W), 2014
  • Table 4: Solar PV, comparison of soft installation costs in Germany and the USA (US$/W), 2013
  • Table 5: Solar PV, US EIA capital cost estimates for solar PV 2001 -2013 (US$/kW), 2013
  • Table 6: US EIA levelized costs for solar PV plants, 2016 - 2019 (US$/MWh), 2014
  • Table 7: Global comparisons of residential solar PV LCOE and cost of electricity (US$/MWh), 2014
  • Table 8: Solar PV, US states that have already achieved parity (US$/MWh), 2014
  • Table 9: US EIA levelized cost comparisons 2019 and 2040 (US$/MWh), 2014
  • Table 10: Global PV annual capacity growth predictions 2013 - 2017 (MW), 2013
  • Table 11: Solar generation forecasts 2010 - 2040 (TWh), 2013
  • Table 12: Solar PV, Historical and predicted annual capacity growth for selected countries and regions 2010 - 2015 (MW), 2014
  • Table 13: European PV annual capacity growth predictions 2013 - 2017 (MW), 2013

Table of figures

  • Figure 1: Solar PV, European spot prices for crystalline solar cell modules from different sources, 2009 - 2014 (€/W), 2014
  • Figure 2: Solar PV, European thin film spot prices 2009 - 2013 (€/W), 2014
  • Figure 3: Solar PV, annual average US installed system price 2001 - 2013 (US$/W), 2014
  • Figure 4: Solar PV, comparison of soft installation costs in Germany and the USA (US$/W), 2013
  • Figure 5: Solar PV, US EIA capital cost estimates for solar PV 2001 -2013 (US$/kW), 2013
  • Figure 6: US EIA levelized costs for solar PV plants, 2016 - 2019 (US$/MWh), 2014
  • Figure 7: Levelised cost variations as a function of solar isolation (US$/MWh), 2014
  • Figure 8: National comparisons of LCOE and Cost of electricity (US$/MWh), 2014
  • Figure 9: Solar PV, US states that have already achieved parity (US$/MWh), 2014
  • Figure 10: US EIA levelized cost comparisons 2019 and 2040 (US$/MWh), 2014
  • Figure 11: Global PV annual capacity growth predictions 2013 - 2017 (MW), 2013
  • Figure 12: Solar generation forecasts 2010 - 2040 (TWh), 2013
  • Figure 13: Solar PV, Historical and predicted annual capacity growth for selected countries and regions 2010 - 2015 (MW), 2014
  • Figure 14: European PV annual capacity growth predictions 2013 - 2017 (MW), 2013
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