The Africa Research Package: Electricity - 12 Country Profile Reports (Angola, Lesotho, Madagascar, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Botswana & Malawi)
|発行||Power Generation Research||商品コード||312746|
|アフリカ電力調査パッケージ：12ヵ国の国別プロファイルレポート（アンゴラ・レソト・マダガスカル・モーリシャス・モザンビーク・ナミビア・南アフリカ・スワジランド・ザンビア・ジンバブエ・ボツワナ・マラウイ) The Africa Research Package: Electricity - 12 Country Profile Reports (Angola, Lesotho, Madagascar, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Botswana & Malawi)|
|出版日: 2014年09月16日||ページ情報: 英文||
The Africa Research Package will be provided in the following country profile reports:
Angola was devastated by a 25 year civil war which finally ended in 2002, but left much of the national infrastructure including the electricity system in ruins. Of the country's three independent grids the central was the most heavily damaged while the northern, serving the capital Luanda was the least damaged. Following the end of the civil war and the establishment of a democratically based system of government, the Ministry of Energy and Water has started to rebuild the electricity infrastructure but progress has been slow. While one new hydropower plant, Capanda, has been brought into service and added 520MW to the northern system, only around half of the remaining installed capacity is operational. The country has an urgent need to both rehabilitate damaged power plants where they can be repaired and to build new capacity. It also needs to dramatically expand the reach of the existing grid system and too interconnect the existing grids. Currently less than 30% of the population have access to electric power. Angola has large oil reserves and the income from these gives the country the opportunity to invest and rebuild. It also has abundant hydropower resources that could be easily exploited. However the country will not be able to fund all this expansion alone. The government has begun to restructure the centralised, state-controlled power industry but progress has been slow. Meanwhile tariffs remain heavily subsidised. To attract international investors, the government will need to overhaul the tariff system, to enable them to meet the cost of production, and it will need to offer a transparent industry structure into which private operators can sit comfortably. The county has come a long way in the decade since the war ended, but it still has a long way to go.
The economy of Angola is reliant almost exclusively on oil which has grown in importance over the last two decades and accounts for around 85% of GDP. In 2011 oil exports accounted for 98% of government revenues. The country joined the Organisation of Oil Exporting Countries (OPEC) in 2007. Meanwhile diamond exports contribute a further 5%. GDP in 2012 was $114.2bn, making Angola the third largest economy in Africa, after South Africa and Egypt. The high value of oil during the first decade of the twenty-first century and concurrent expansion of the oil industry led to average GDP growth of 15% between 2004 and 2008. Growth has slowed since then but was estimated at 8.4% in 2012. In August 2012 the government announced plans for a $5bn sovereign wealth fund.
Botswana has established itself as one of the most stable democracies in Southern Africa. The country has major coal reserves and one of the highest solar intensities in the continent. However its electricity sector has been hampered by both low access to power by the population, and an extremely limited generating capacity. In the past the small generating capacity has been compensated for by the ready import of power from South Africa. However a power shortage in the latter means that exports are being significantly curtailed so that several countries in the Southern African Power Pool including Botswana must increase their own generating capacity to compensate. Capacity is being expanded with a major new power plant using Chinese contractors, but the project is behind schedule, and the Botswana Power Corporation is having to use emergency diesel generation to meet the shortfall. Over the medium term there are plans for further significant capacity expansion so that all demand can be met from within Botswana and that, potentially, the country could use its coal reserves to become an exporter of power. Plans to attract independent power producers will depend on an overhaul of the regulatory framework, currently underway, and the establishment of electricity tariffs determined by market rates. If this can be achieved then the country appears to offer opportunities for a range of both generation, transmission and distribution projects.
Lesotho is a small land-locked state within the borders of South Africa. It is one of Africa's poorest nations and suffers from overcrowding, forcing many of the working age population to emigrate to its larger neighbour. The electricity network in Lesotho is limited with around one quarter of the population provided with access to the grid. Most of the country's power is provided by one hydropower plant, but this cannot meet national demand and the shortfall is supplied from South Africa and Mozambique via the South African Power Pool. Supply constraints within Southern Africa are making it more difficult for countries like Lesotho to import power and the country needs to expand its own capacity if it is to avoid serious load shedding problems in coming years. The country has significant hydropower potential, which there are already plans to develop in conjunction with South Africa, and also wind potential. However all such development with depend on outside investment, as the country does not have the resources to fund development itself.
Madagascar has one of the lowest levels of access to electric power in the world. The country has significant resources of hydropower, wind power and some geothermal potential, and although there is sufficient hydropower capacity to supply just over half its demand, little capacity has been added in the past 25 years. Instead the state utility, Jirama, has been forced to rely increasingly on diesel-fired engines to meet demand, and the country now has in the region of 100 such plants. These include both plants built by the utility, and others that have been leased. There are also a number of independent power producers, providing power to the grid. Madagascar could attract support from a number of international agencies, but all projects have been placed on hold since democratic rule was overturned in 2009. If a return to democracy is completed in 2013, then international investors may return. In the meantime Jirama is operating at a loss, with tariffs not matching the cost of production, and has little resources to invest either in additional generating capacity or in extension of the limited grid system.
Malawi is a landlocked state along the East African Rift Valley. The country depends on agriculture for most of its income and exports. It has one of the lowest electrification rates in Africa, with less than 10% of the population having access to electricity. Almost all of its power comes from a series of hydropower plants on the Shire river, that runs through the rift valley. The oldest of these plants in nearly 50 years old. The main electricity company in Malawi is Escom, a vertically integrated utility than is nominally a private company but with all shares owned by the government. Escom has suffered from a poor financial situation for several years, with tariffs barely meeting costs. Recent tariff increases have eased the problem slightly, but the company does not have resources to invest in new capacity, or in extending or refurbishing its transmission and distribution system - which is old and overloaded. The country depends heavily on donor agencies to support the government, but aid was suspended in 2011 after a negative report from the International Monetary Fund. The country has significant energy resources, particularly hydropower, biomass, solar and wind energy, which could all be developed for electricity production, but in order to do so it must attract foreign investment. This, in turn, depends on the government showing itself capable of openness, good economic management, and able to eliminate corruption. If it can do this, then the country offers significant future potential.
Mauritius is a stable island democracy with an economy that has shown strong growth over the past five years, in spite of the global crisis. Its electricity sector is dominated by the Central Electricity Board, a government owned company that controls the transmission, distribution and supply of power, and generates around 40% of all the electricity that is sold across the grid system. The remainder is generated by independent power producers (IPPs), some burning a mixture of agricultural waste from sugar plantations and coal to provide year-round operation. Capacity margins in Mauritius are high, but demand is rising at a rate of over 3% annually - and new capacity will be required during the decade. Currently most generation is based on coal or diesel, all of which must be imported. The country has hydro resources but all the best sites are in use. However there are solar and wind resources, both of which could provide a significant amount of power, there is potential for geothermal generation, more biomass could be exploited and there is also the possibility of using marine resources. The Central Electricity Board is beginning to introduce smart grid technologies, and plans to develop distributed generation as a substitute for central power plants in the future.
Mozambique is a coastal southern African state, with high levels of poverty, and rich energy resources. The country has suffered a painful emergence from colonial rule, and levels of corruption, and the openness of government - are still questionable. In spite of this, the government is about to embark on an ambitious expansion plan, that it hopes will create a powerhouse for southern Africa. Much of this depends on development of hydropower potential on the Zambezi, where the country's largest power plant, Cahorra Bassa, is already operating and exporting energy to neighbouring countries. Up to 10,000MW of capacity might be added over the next 20 years. In addition, the country has newly discovered natural gas reserves and bituminous coal reserves, all of which it plans to use to generate power. While plans to develop and export energy are high on the agenda, the population remains poorly served - with only around 18% having access to power (although estimates differ, and the government puts the level higher). Further, the national grid system is fragmented so that power from Cahorra Bassa can only be transmitted to the main load centres in the south of the country via South Africa. In order to rectify this, a new backbone transmission system is planned, and a major rural electrification programme is already underway, supported by foreign donors.
Namibia has a stable and growing economy, which is spurring electricity demand growth. However the country has limited installed generating capacity, and has to import over half of its electricity from neighbouring countries including South Africa, Zimbabwe and Zambia. This has led to blackouts in the past and the national utility, Nampower, wants to expand its own generating capacity to prevent future shortfalls. Although relatively rich, the country does not have the resources to build the required new capacity - without foreign aid or investment. Access to electricity in Namibia is good compared to many of its neighbours, with 98% of urban dwellers having access, and up to 40% of rural communities. Extension of the grid is bringing power to more of the latter, and this is adding upward pressure on demand. Meanwhile the county has hydropower, and potentially both coal and natural gas reserves - which could be used to generate power. Other renewable sources including wind and solar power are being developed, but at a relatively slow pace.
South Africa, the southern-most country of the African continent, is the most developed nation in sub-Saharan Africa. The country holds one of the world's largest reserves of coal, and recent surveys suggest that there may be abundant unconventional natural gas reserves too. The electricity sector, dominated by the state utility Eskom, is well developed, and has an extensive transmission and distribution network. Even so, only around 75% of the population have access to electricity. Lack of investment, in either generating capacity of the transmission and distribution infrastructure, during the decade after full democracy was established in 1994 - led to a shortage of power in middle of the first decade of the twenty-first century, with blackouts and load shedding. Since then, the country has engaged in a massive electricity sector expansion programme - which expects to see generating capacity double by 2026. This will be achieved partly by expansion of the renewable energy sector, with both wind and solar power expected to contribute - so that by 2030 renewable sources could account for 40% of all generating capacity. In order to achieve this, the government is encouraging independent power producers, particularly in the renewable sector. The country is also planning a significant expansion of nuclear capacity to supplement its one operating nuclear plant.
Swaziland is a small state between South Africa and Mozambique. The country has a low electrification rate of around 27%, one of the lowest in the region, but is a part of the Southern African Power Pool. The main utility is the Swaziland Electricity Company, a government owned utility that controls transmission, distribution, and supply of power. The utility's installed generating capacity is small compared to the level of demand, and it relies on imports for between 80% and 90% of all the power it sells. There are, in addition, a number or sugar companies that generate power for themselves, using sugar cane waste and imported coal. The county has reserves of high quality coal and hydropower, biomass, solar, and wind potential, but the small size of the country, coupled with its limited financial resources, makes developing any of these energy sources difficult - without external assistance. The country's best hope for generating capacity expansion is to exploit its coal reserves with the help of partners, in order to export power to South Africa, and other neighbouring countries.
Zambia is a landlocked nation in Southern Africa that takes its name from the Zambezi River which runs through the country, and forms its southern border with Zimbabwe. The country's main source of wealth is its copper mines, and the economy has remained relatively strong during the recession, but is susceptible to commodity price swings. However the country remains poor, and access to electricity at around 20% is very low. Zambia relies almost exclusively on hydropower for its electricity, and generation is currently constrained by the limited generating capacity. New capacity is planned, but the government must rely on foreign investors or external donor agencies to supply the investment necessary. Both large hydropower and a coal-fired plant are planned, and investment appears to have been secured for at least two major projects. Meanwhile the government is investing in rural electrification. The country is a key member of the Southern African Power Pool, and provides a link between the Democratic Republic of Congo and South Africa through which power can be wheeled.
Zimbabwe lies in the heart of Southern Africa, and of the Southern African Power Pool - of which it is a member. The country has significant energy resources, and has in the past supported a strong economy, based on commercial farming and mining. However, the government of Robert Mugabe has, over the past twenty years, left a large part of the economy in ruins, and the country with few economic allies. The electricity infrastructure is old, and cannot come near to meeting actual demand, so load shedding is frequent to maintain system stability. The main electricity sector companies are also heavily in debt, and require government support, partly as a result of an inability to collect debts from consumers. The country imports power from its neighbours, but the inability to pay for imports, coupled with a tighter supply in the SAPP region, has made access to power from other countries more difficult. Without renewal at government level, and transparent management of the economy and other affairs, Zimbabwe will struggle to attract the investment it needs to rebuild the infrastructure and allow the economy to flourish.