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電力コストとエコノミクス:コンボパッケージ

Electricity Costs and Economics - Combo Package

発行 Power Generation Research 商品コード 312745
出版日 ページ情報 英文
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電力コストとエコノミクス:コンボパッケージ Electricity Costs and Economics - Combo Package
出版日: 2014年09月16日 ページ情報: 英文
概要

当パッケージでは、レポート「電力コストとエコノミクス:炭素制約社会における再生可能エネルギーと従来型発電の最適バランスの模索(Electricity Costs and Economics: Finding the Optimum Balance Between Renewable and Conventional Power Generation in a Carbon-Constrained World)」およびExcelデータブック「電力コスト・エコノミクス:データブック(Electricity Costs and Economics Databook)」をセットにてご提供いたします。

レポート目次

エグゼクティブサマリー

第1章 電力および燃料コストの動向:過去と未来

  • サマリー
  • イントロダクション
  • 世界の発電
  • 燃料コスト
  • 燃料コストの不安定性とリスク
  • 電力コストの過去の推移
  • 小売価格と分散型発電

第2章 発電技術の資本コスト

  • サマリー
  • イントロダクション
  • 設備発電容量の因子
  • 商品価格と世界市場
  • リードタイム
  • 資本コスト
  • 太陽光発電のコスト
  • 資本コストの動向
  • 資本コストの地域的な違い

第3章 将来の電力コスト:従来型技術・原子力・再生可能技術による電力の平準化コスト

  • サマリー
  • イントロダクション
  • 共通基準エネルギー原価
  • 電力の平準化コスト
  • 平準化コストの動向
  • 平準化コストの地域的違い
  • 助成金・その他の要素

第4章 世界の設備発電容量と電力コスト:技術成長の動向と展望

  • サマリー
  • イントロダクション
  • 世界の設備発電容量と発電レベル
  • 従来型発電の役割の変化
  • 再生可能エネルギーの成長
  • 原子力に関する議論
  • 天然ガスの発展
  • 将来世代のコスト
  • 世界のファイナンス
  • 将来の展望

図表

目次

The power sector still remains an attractive area for investment but investors are now more cautious than previously. Global warming continues to be a dominant theme but alongside that there is a new pragmatism about fossil fuel combustion which will continue to dominate the power sector for another generation at least. Meanwhile renewable sources of generation continue to advance, led principally by wind power but with solar capacity growing rapidly too, though from a small base.

Electricity is the most important energy source in the modern age but also the most ephemeral, a source that must be consumed as fast as it is produced. This makes modeling the economics of electricity production more complex than carrying out the same exercise for other products. Accurate modeling is important because it forms the basis for future investment decisions. In the electricity sector two fundamental yardsticks are used for cost comparison, capital cost and the levelized cost of electricity. The latter is a lifecycle cost analysis of a power plant that uses assumptions about the future value of money to convert all future costs and revenues into current prices. This model is widely used in the power industry but has some significant failings, particularly in its ability to handle risk. Even so these two measures, together, are the first consulted when power sector investment and planning decisions are to be made.

Production of electricity has always involved an element of risk but this has been extended, and in some cases magnified by the introduction of liberalized electricity markets. One big source of risk is fuel price risk. If an investment is made today based on a predicted cost of natural gas that turns out to be wildly in error because prices soar, as has happened during the past decade, then that investment will be in danger of failing to be economical to operate. Therefore some measure of the risk of fuel price volatility should be included in any economic model. Other risks arise where large capital investment is required in untested technology. Meanwhile the liberalized market has introduced new types of risk more often associated with financial markets.

Key features of this report

  • Analysis of power generation costs concepts, drivers and components.
  • Assessment of electricity costs for different technologies in terms of the two fundamental yardsticks used for cost comparison, capital cost and the levelized cost of electricity.
  • Insight relating to the most innovative technologies and potential areas of opportunity for manufacturers.
  • Examination of the key power generation technologies costs.
  • Identification of the key trends shaping the market, as well as an evaluation of emerging trends that will drive innovation moving forward.

Key benefits from reading this report

  • Realize up to date competitive intelligence through a comprehensive power cost analysis in electricity power generation markets.
  • Assess power generation costs and analysis - including capital costs, overnight costs, levelized costs and risk analysis.
  • Identify which key trends will offer the greatest growth potential and learn which technology trends are likely to allow greater market impact.
  • Quantify capital and levelized cost trends and how these vary regionally..

Key questions answered by this report

  • What are the drivers shaping and influencing power plant development in the electricity industry
  • What is power generation going to cost
  • Which power generation technology types will be the winners and which the losers in terms power generated, cost and viability
  • Which power generation types are likely to find favour with manufacturers moving forward
  • Which emerging technologies are gaining in popularity and why

Table of Contents

About the author

  • Disclaimer
  • Note about authors and sources

Table of contents

Table of tables

Table of figures

Executive summary

  • Chapter 1: Electricity and fuel cost trends: the signature of the past and signs for the future
  • Chapter 2: The capital cost of power generation technologies
  • Chapter 3: The future cost of electricity: the levelized cost of power from conventional, nuclear and renewable technologies
  • Chapter 4: Global electricity generating capacity and the cost of power: technology growth trends and prospects

Chapter 1: Electricity and fuel cost trends: the signature of the past and signs for the future

  • Summary
  • Introduction
  • Global power generation
  • Fuel costs
  • Fuel cost volatility and risk
  • The historical cost of electricity
  • Retail prices and distributed generation

Chapter 2: The capital cost of power generation technologies

  • Summary
  • Introduction
  • Capacity factor
  • Commodity prices and world markets
  • Lead times
  • Capital costs
  • Solar photovoltaic costs
  • Capital cost trends
  • Regional variations in capital costs

Chapter 3: The future cost of electricity: the levelized cost of power from conventional, nuclear and renewable technologies

  • Summary
  • Introduction
  • The levelized cost of energy
  • Levelized costs of electricity
  • Levelized cost trends
  • Regional variation in levelized cost
  • Subsidies and other distortions

Chapter 4: Global electricity generating capacity and the cost of power: technology growth trends and prospects

  • Summary
  • Introduction
  • Global capacity and production levels
  • A changing role for conventional generation
  • Renewable growth
  • The nuclear debate
  • Natural gas developments
  • Future generation costs
  • Global finance
  • Future prospects
  • List of abbreviations

Table of tables

  • Table 1: Global electricity production by source (TWh)
  • Table 2: Global electricity production by region (TWh)
  • Table 3: Comparison of the cost of fuels for power generation ($/GJ)
  • Table 4: Historical cost of oil ($/barrel)
  • Table 5: Historical cost of natural gas ($/GJ)
  • Table 6: Annual cost of natural gas to US utilities ($/GJ)
  • Table 7: Historical cost of coal ($/tonne)
  • Table 8: Cost of coal to US utilities ($/tonne)
  • Table 9: Historical US electricity costs, by sector ($/MWh)
  • Table 10: Historical cost of electricity for the 27 countries of the EU (€/MWh)
  • Table 11: Typical capacity factors for generating technologies (%)
  • Table 12: The cost of new generation technologies from US EIA ($/kW)
  • Table 13: Capital costs for generating technologies based on Lazard estimates ($/kW)
  • Table 14: UK capital costs for non-renewable generating technologies (£/kW)
  • Table 15: Capital cost ranges for renewable technologies ($/kW)
  • Table 16: Evolution of solar cell module prices (€/kW)
  • Table 17: US generating technology capital cost trends ($/kW)
  • Table 18: Coal-fired power plant capital cost by country ($/kW)
  • Table 19: Combined cycle gas turbine power plant capital cost by country ($/kW)
  • Table 20: Onshore wind plant capital cost by country ($/kW)
  • Table 21: Solar photovoltaic capital cost by country ($/kW)
  • Table 22: US levelized cost of electricity for generating plants entering service in 2018 (2011 $/MWh)
  • Table 23: Lazard estimates for unsubsidized levelized cost of electricity ranges in USA ($/MWh)
  • Table 24: UK levelized cost of electricity for different generating technologies (£/MWh)
  • Table 25: Levelized cost of renewable technologies ($/MWh), 2011
  • Table 26: US levelized cost trends ($/MWh)
  • Table 27: Levelized cost of electricity from coal fired power plants, by country ($/MWh)
  • Table 28: Levelized cost of electricity from natural gas-fired combined cycle plants, by country ($/MWh)
  • Table 29: Levelized cost of electricity from onshore wind installations, by country ($/MWh)
  • Table 30: Levelized cost of electricity from solar pV installations, by country ($/MWh)
  • Table 31: Predicted global electricity generation by fuel (TWh)
  • Table 32: Predicted global renewable electricity generation by source (TWh)
  • Table 33: Renewable technology growth rates (%)
  • Table 34: Predicted gas prices ($/GJ)
  • Table 35: Predicted US coal prices ($/tonne)
  • Table 36: US levelized generation costs in 2018 ($/MWh)
  • Table 37: UK projected levelized cost of electricity for different generating technologies (£/MWh)
  • Table 38: Predicted cost of key renewable technologies in 2020 ($/MWh)
  • Table 39: Annual global Investment in renewable energy ($bn)

Table of figures

  • Figure 1: Global electricity production by source (TWh)
  • Figure 2: Global electricity production by region (TWh)
  • Figure 3: Comparison of the cost of fuels for power generation ($/GJ)
  • Figure 4: Historical cost of oil ($/barrel)
  • Figure 5: Historical cost of natural gas ($/GJ)
  • Figure 6: Annual cost of natural gas to US utilities ($/GJ)
  • Figure 7: Historical cost of coal ($/tonne)
  • Figure 8: Cost of coal to US utilities ($/tonne)
  • Figure 9: Historical US electricity costs, by sector ($/MWh)
  • Figure 10: Historical cost of electricity for the 27 countries of the EU (€/MWh)
  • Figure 11: Typical capacity factors for generating technologies (%)
  • Figure 12: The cost of new generation technologies from US EIA ($/kW)
  • Figure 13: Capital costs for generating technologies based on Lazard estimates ($/kW)
  • Figure 14: UK capital costs for non-renewable generating technologies (£/kW)
  • Figure 15: Capital cost ranges for renewable technologies ($/kW)
  • Figure 16: Evolution of solar cell module prices (€/kW)
  • Figure 17: US generating technology capital cost trends ($/kW)
  • Figure 18: Coal-fired power plant capital cost by country ($/kW)
  • Figure 19: Combined cycle gas turbine power plant capital cost by country ($/kW)
  • Figure 20: Onshore wind plant capital cost by country ($/kW)
  • Figure 21: Solar photovoltaic capital cost by country ($/kW)
  • Figure 22: US levelized cost of electricity for generating plants entering service in 2018 (2011 $/MWh)
  • Figure 23: Lazard estimates for unsubsidized levelized cost of electricity ranges in USA ($/MWh)
  • Figure 24: UK levelized cost of electricity for different generating technologies in 2018 (£/MWh)
  • Figure 25: Levelized cost of renewable technologies ($/MWh), 2011
  • Figure 26: US levelized cost trends ($/MWh)
  • Figure 27: Levelized cost of electricity from coal fired power plants, by country ($/MWh)
  • Figure 28: Levelized cost of electricity from natural gas-fired combined cycle plants, by country ($/MWh)
  • Figure 29: Levelized cost of electricity from onshore wind installations, by country ($/MWh)
  • Figure 30: Levelized cost of electricity from solar pV installations, by country ($/MWh)
  • Figure 31: Predicted global electricity generation by fuel (TWh)
  • Figure 32: Predicted global renewable electricity generation by source (TWh)
  • Figure 33: Renewable technology growth rates (%)
  • Figure 34: Predicted gas prices ($/GJ)
  • Figure 35: Predicted US coal prices ($/tonne)
  • Figure 36: US levelized generation costs in 2018 ($/MWh)
  • Figure 37: UK projected levelized cost of electricity for different generating technologies (£/MWh)
  • Figure 38: Predicted cost of key renewable technologies in 2020 ($/MWh)
  • Figure 39: Annual global Investment in renewable energy ($bn)
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