市場調査レポート

風力発電の進化と経済性:技術的傾向、経済性、コスト、将来展望

The Evolution and Economics of Wind Power: Technology Trends, Economics, Costs and Prospects for Wind Power Generation

発行 Power Generation Research 商品コード 311899
出版日 ページ情報 英文 81 Pages; 23 Tables & 27 Figures
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風力発電の進化と経済性:技術的傾向、経済性、コスト、将来展望 The Evolution and Economics of Wind Power: Technology Trends, Economics, Costs and Prospects for Wind Power Generation
出版日: 2014年06月30日 ページ情報: 英文 81 Pages; 23 Tables & 27 Figures
概要

世界各地の風力発電市場の将来展望を見てみると、欧州では経済的に優位な陸上(オンショア)風力発電の規模が、2020年には9,600テラワット(TWh)、2030年には27,000TWhにまで拡大する、と予測されています。国別では、デンマークが12箇所の海上風力発電所(ウィンドファーム)と1,271MW分の発電容量を有する一方、ドイツは13箇所・520MW分を有しています。また、中国も6,960TWhの発電力を有しています。米国も2013年末現在では世界第2位(1,271MW)の設備容量を有していますが、年間増加量は1,084MWに留まっています。

当レポートでは、全世界の風力発電の最新の技術・市場動向やと今後の見通しについて分析し、風力発電のコストと経済性、技術開発の主な促進・阻害要因、設置・運用コストの見通し、各々の技術方式の経済性、今後の発電量・発電能力(設備容量)および技術別の普及状況の見通しなどを調査・推計しております。

エグゼクティブ・サマリー

第1章 風力資源と世界の風力発電能力

  • サマリー
  • イントロダクション
  • 風速
  • 風力資源
  • 全世界の風力発電の設備容量

第2章 風力発電の技術・市場動向

  • サマリー
  • イントロダクション
  • タービン開発の動向
    • タービンブレード
    • パワートレイン
    • 風力発電用タワーの設計
    • 予知保全
  • 風力発電の電力網への統合
  • 市場シェア

第3章 風力発電の経済性

  • サマリー
  • イントロダクション
  • 風力発電タービンと資本コストの動向
  • 風力発電のLCOE(均等化エネルギー費用)

第4章 風力発電の将来展望

  • サマリー
  • イントロダクション
  • コストの比較
  • 成長率の予測
  • 各地域市場の成長率
    • 欧州
    • アジア
    • 北米
    • ラテンアメリカ
    • アフリカ
  • 結論

略語一覧

図表一覧

目次
Product Code: PGREvoEcoWindJune14

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The Evolution and Economics of Wind Power report contains four chapters:-

Chapter 1 The wind resource and global wind generating capacity

Wind is the movement of air generated by the earth's rotation and by the heating of the atmosphere by the sun. The wind resulting is both intermittent and unpredictable. The amount of wind energy available varies with position on the globe and some regions have much better resources than others. Wind atlases can help reveal the best resource regions but site measurements are usually necessary to evaluate a particular wind project. Global wind capacity has been growing steadily since the beginning of the century. Early growth was driven by expansion in Europe but towards the end of the first decade of the century the centre of gravity moved away from Europe with growth in both the USA and China growing rapidly. Europe still has the largest wind capacity but this will soon be overtaken by Asia. Offshore wind, however, remains a European phenomenon with virtually all the global capacity still located in European waters.

Chapter 2 Wind technology and market trends

Modern large wind turbines follow a standard design with a horizontal axis carrying a rotor fixed to the top of a tall tower. This standardization has allowed manufacturers to concentrate on development of key turbine components. A major trend has been a continued increase in turbine size with larger turbines generally more economical than smaller units. This has been accompanied by developments to allow manufacture of longer and lighter blades. Blades and towers are being designed in segments so that they can be more easily transported to difficult sites. There have also been developments in the drive train, particularly the introduction of direct drive and permanent magnet generators that offer greater efficiency of operation. Other important developments have focused on measures to improve the integration of large volumes of wind power into grid systems. All these developments are making higher and higher penetration levels possible. The market, meanwhile, remains largely regional so that locally-based manufacturers often take the major share of each market.

Chapter 3 The economics of wind power

Wind power is capital intensive with most of the investment required upfront. The largest capital cost component is the turbine itself which can account for between 40% and 80% of the total capital cost of an onshore wind installation. Costs offshore are higher because of the more expensive operating environment and the greater difficulty establishing a foundation so the proportion of capital cost taken by the turbine is generally lower than onshore. Turbine cost fell from 1980 until 2002 when prices started to rise again, peaking in 2009 before falling further. Technological advances and greater overall efficiency are continuing to bring costs down. This is feeding into capital cost trends which are following turbine prices by falling. There are regional variations in capital costs, with costs lower in India and China than in Europe or the USA but regional differences are narrowing as the market becomes more global. With capital cost the dominant component of the cost of energy, the levelized cost of electricity from wind plants is falling too and onshore wind is beginning to compete with other technologies, particularly new coal. There is a growing consensus that onshore wind will reach parity in many parts of the world by the end of the decade, if not before. Offshore wind will take longer but could be competing with the main conventional sources of power by the middle or end of the third decade of the century.

Chapter 4 Wind prospects

The cost of wind power has continued to fall compared to many other technologies over the past five years and is now approaching the level at which it can compete with conventional technologies. Power from natural gas and coal remains cheaper (without carbon capture and storage) but the steady growth in renewable penetration from both wind and wind power is leading to coal and gas-fired plants operating for less of the time, a factor which adversely affects their economics. On the other hand the low cost of wind power is leading governments to reduce subsidies to wind. By the end of the decade wind power could be the second cheapest source of electricity after natural gas in many markets. Growth of wind power is expected to continue strongly in the major markets of Europe, Asia and North America. Markets in Latin America are advancing more slowly and wind power in Africa remains a rarity.

Key features of this report

  • Analysis of wind power generation technology costs, concepts, drivers and components.
  • Assessment of electricity costs for different technologies in terms of the two fundamental yardsticks used for cost comparison, capital cost and the levelized cost of electricity.
  • Insight relating to the most innovative technologies and potential areas of opportunity for manufacturers.
  • Examination of the key wind power generation technologies costs.
  • Identification of the key trends shaping the market, as well as an evaluation of emerging trends that will drive innovation moving forward.

Key benefits from reading this report

  • Realize up to date competitive intelligence through a comprehensive power cost analysis in wind power generation markets.
  • Assess wind power generation costs and analysis - including capital costs and levelized costs.
  • Identify which key trends will offer the greatest growth potential and learn which technology trends are likely to allow greater market impact.
  • Quantify capital and levelized cost trends and how these vary regionally.

Key findings of this report

  • 1.The economically competitive onshore potential in Europe was put at 9,600TWh in 2020 and 27,000TWh in 2030.
  • 2.China could profitably generate 6,960TWh of wind energy at $75/MWh.
  • 3.The second largest capacity at the end of 2013 was in the USA where total capacity was 61,091MW but annual additions only amounted to 1,084MW.
  • 4.Denmark has 12 wind farms and 1,271MW of generating capacity offshore while Germany has 13 wind farms and 520MW.
  • 5.Vestas which after a difficult two-year period has now consolidated its position as the world's leading supplier of wind turbines.

Key questions answered by this report

  • 1.What are the drivers shaping and influencing power plant development in the electricity industry?
  • 2.What is wind power generation going to cost?
  • 3.Which wind power generation technology types will be the winners and which the losers in terms of power generated, cost and viability?
  • 4.Which wind power generation types are likely to find favour with manufacturers moving forward?
  • 5.Which emerging technologies are gaining in popularity and why?

Who this report is for

Power utility strategists, energy analysts, research managers, power sector manufacturers, wind power developers, investors in renewables systems and infrastructure, renewable energy developers, energy/power planning managers, energy/power development managers, governmental organisations, system operators, companies investing in renewable power infrastructure and generation, investment banks, infrastructure developers and investors, intergovernmental lenders, energy security analysts.

Why buy it

  • To utilise in-depth assessment and analysis of the current and future technological and market state of wind power, carried out by an industry expert with 30 years in the power generation industry.
  • Use cutting edge information and data.
  • Use the highest level of research carried out. Expert analysis to say what is happening in the market and what will happen next.
  • Have the 'what if' questions answered about new wind technologies.
  • Save time and money by having top quality research done for you at a low cost.

Key areas covered by the report

  • Key products/categories profiled : Energy
  • Evolution and Economics of Wind Power - Technology trends, economics, costs and prospects for wind power generation.
  • Key regions/countries covered : Europe and United States of America. Global focus.

Table of Contents

About the author

Disclaimer

  • Note about authors and sources

Table of contents

Table of tables

Table of figures

Executive summary

  • Chapter 1 The wind resource and global wind generating capacity
  • Chapter 2 Wind technology and market trends
  • Chapter 3 The economics of wind power
  • Chapter 4 Wind prospects

Chapter 1. The wind resource and global wind generating capacity

  • Summary
  • Introduction
  • Wind speed
  • The wind resource
  • Global installed wind capacity

Chapter 2. Wind technology and market trends

  • Summary
  • Introduction
  • Turbine development trends
    • Turbine blades
    • Power trains
    • Tower design
    • Predictive maintenance
  • Wind integration
  • Market shares

Chapter 3. The economics of wind power

  • Summary
  • Introduction
  • Wind turbine and capital cost trends
  • Levelized cost of wind power

Chapter 4. Wind prospects

  • Summary
  • Introduction
  • Cost comparisons
  • Growth predictions
  • Regional growth
    • Europe
    • Asia
    • North America
    • Latin America
    • Africa
  • Conclusion

List of abbreviations

Table of tables

  • Table 1: Wind, European economically competitive wind energy resource to 2030 (TWh), 2009
  • Table 2: Wind, global annual installed capacity and annual additions 1996 - 2013 (MW), 201421
  • Table 3: Wind, regional capacity and capacity additions in 2013 (MW), 2014
  • Table 4: Wind, European annual installed capacity, 2000 - 2013 (MW), 2014
  • Table 5: Wind, US annual additions and cumulative capacity 1999 - 2013 (MW), 2014
  • Table 6: Wind, China annual capacity and additions 2001 - 2013 (MW), 2014
  • Table 7: Wind, European offshore wind capacity and annual additions 1993 - 2013 (MW), 201431
  • Table 8: Wind, European offshore wind capacity by country in 2013 (MW), 2014
  • Table 9: Wind, evolution of turbine capacity and rotor size 1980 - 2014 (2014)
  • Table 10: Wind, top 15 manufacturers in 2013 by market share (2014)
  • Table 11: Cumulative European offshore wind market share by manufacturer at end of 2013, (2014)
  • Table 12: Breakdown of capital costs for onshore wind installation (%), 2013
  • Table 13: Wind, onshore and offshore capital cost trends from 2001-2013 ($kW), 2013
  • Table 14: Levelized cost trends from 2009 - 2014 ($/MWh), 2014
  • Table 15: Wind, regional capital and levelized costs ($/MWh), 2013
  • Table 16: Levelized cost variations for wind ($/MWh), 2013
  • Table 17: Levelized cost comparisons ($/MWh), 2013
  • Table 18: Levelized cost predictions 2019 and 2040 ($/MWh), 2014
  • Table 19: Levelized cost of wind power estimates 2013 - 2017 (£/MWh), 2013
  • Table 20: Onshore and offshore wind, levelized cost predictions 2014 - 2030 (£/MWh), 2013
  • Table 21: Global wind capacity growth forecasts 2013 - 2018 (MW), 2014
  • Table 22: Wind energy growth predictions 2010 - 2040 (TWh), 2013
  • Table 23: Regional wind capacity additions 2013 - 2018 (MW), 2014

Table of figures

  • Figure 1: Wind, ten year global average wind speed at 50m 1983 - 1993, 2004
  • Figure 2: Wind, average wind resource across the contiguous USA
  • Figure 3: Wind, generalized wind map of Europe at 50m
  • Figure 4: Wind, European economically competitive wind energy resource to 2030 (TWh), 200918
  • Figure 5: Wind, global annual installed capacity and annual additions 1996 - 2013 (MW), 2014
  • Figure 6: Wind, regional capacity and capacity additions in 2013 (MW), 2014
  • Figure 7: Wind, European annual installed capacity, 2000 - 2013 (MW), 2014
  • Figure 8: Wind, US annual additions and cumulative capacity 1999 - 2013 (MW), 2014
  • Figure 9: Wind, China annual capacity and additions 2001 - 2013 (MW), 2014
  • Figure 10: Wind, European offshore wind capacity and annual additions 1993 - 2013 (MW), 2014
  • Figure 11: Wind, European offshore wind capacity by country in 2013 (MW), 2014
  • Figure 12: Wind, evolution of turbine capacity and rotor size 1980 - 2014 (2014)
  • Figure 13: Wind, top 15 manufacturers in 2013 by market share (2014)
  • Figure 14: Cumulative European offshore wind market share by manufacturer at end of 2013, (2014)
  • Figure 15: Breakdown of capital costs for onshore wind installation (%), 2013
  • Figure 16: Wind, onshore and offshore capital cost trends from 2001-2013 ($kW), 2013
  • Figure 17: Levelized cost trends from 2009 - 2014 ($/MWh), 2014
  • Figure 18: Wind, regional capital costs ($/MWh), 2013
  • Figure 19: Wind, regional levelized costs ($/MWh), 2013
  • Figure 20: Levelized cost variations for wind ($/MWh), 2013
  • Figure 21: Levelized cost comparisons ($/MWh), 2013
  • Figure 22: Levelized cost predictions 2019 and 2040 ($/MWh), 2014
  • Figure 23: Levelized cost of wind power estimates 2013 - 2017 (£/MWh), 2013
  • Figure 24: Onshore and offshore wind, levelized cost predictions 2014 - 2030 (£/MWh), 2013
  • Figure 25: Global wind capacity growth forecasts 2013 - 2018 (MW), 2014
  • Figure 26: Wind energy growth predictions 2010 - 2040 (TWh), 2013
  • Figure 27: Regional wind capacity additions 2013 - 2018 (MW), 2014
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