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米国の消費者 2020年

American Consumers in 2020

発行 Packaged Facts 商品コード 289908
出版日 ページ情報 英文 154 Pages
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米国の消費者 2020年 American Consumers in 2020
出版日: 2015年08月31日 ページ情報: 英文 154 Pages
概要

当レポートでは、米国における消費者の支出、ショッピングおよび購入製品などの動向について、今後5年間の予測を提供しており、人口統計プロファイル、消費者支出に影響を及ぼす要因、および消費者支出パターンの変化に関する分析、およびショッピング・小売り環境の変化予測などをまとめています。

第1章 エグゼクティブサマリー

第2章 考察・機会

  • 主な考察
  • 米国経済の将来
  • マーケティング・小売り環境を変化させる人口統計の変化
  • 不況を教訓にした節約習慣はなかなか消えない
  • 技術がショッピング経験の改革を始める、ほか

第3章 米国消費者の人口統計プロファイル

  • 消費者人口の高齢化
  • 2020年の人口は成熟したミレニアム世代および高齢化したベビーブーム世代を特徴とする
  • 高齢消費者が注目を浴び、若年人口は減少
  • より多様な消費者の人口
  • 多文化人口の増加が加速、ほか

第4章 米国消費者の経済

  • たくましい消費者支出を支える要因
  • 世帯形成が加速
  • 住宅再生市場が経済を後押し
  • ベビーブーム世代はより長く働く
  • 裕福な消費者は自信を取り戻す、ほか

第5章 消費者の支出パターン

  • 消費者の支出パターンに影響を及ぼす動向
  • 概要
  • 生活必需品の支出が世帯予算を消費
  • 中間所得層の消費者に打撃
  • ベビーブーム世代が消費者支出を促進し始める、ほか

第6章 米国の購買客・リテラー

  • 文化的動向がショッピング・小売りの将来に影響
  • ミレニアム世代のミニマリズムが基本ルールを変更
  • シェアリングエコノミーの拡大
  • 即日配送が根付く
  • 消費者はオンデマンド製品・サービスを更に望む、ほか

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目次
Product Code: LA5678282

American Consumers in 2020 offers a comprehensive view of the future in order to provide marketers and retailers with a vision of what American consumers will look like, how much they will have to spend, how they will be shopping and what they will be buying in 2020. The report presents a plausible scenario of how American consumers will evolve and the economy will unfold over the next five years so that marketers can align their current strategies to meet the challenges of the future.

Although the Great Recession officially ended five years ago, the American economy has failed to achieve the robust growth experienced in the aftermath of the economic downturns experienced in previous decades. As a result, Packaged Facts expects that American marketers and retailers in 2020 will find themselves operating in an economy reflecting the "new normal" of modest growth forecast in 2015 by agencies such as the Federal Reserve and Congressional Budget Office.

Yet, according to Packaged Facts National Online Consumer Survey data, as American consumers look ahead five years from now, they have a much less dystopian vision of the future than might be expected, given the harsh realities many have faced in recent years. For example, only a small minority expect that global warming will make life harder in five years. While most doubt that the American economy will be in good shape five years from now, they are optimistic about their own job prospects and overall personal financial situation.

The report highlights a series of challenges that marketers and retailers need to understand so they can convert them into opportunities in 2020. For example, as a result of demographic changes, marketing strategies tied to the needs of traditional two-parent-with-children households will be increasingly outmoded. The youth market will shrink and the spending power of older consumers will grow. Retailers will be forced to find ways to deal with a shrinking middle class created by a deeply entrenched two-tier economy, frugal spending habits instilled by the Great Recession and the growth of the sharing economy that will entice more consumers to rent or re-use products rather than buy new ones.

Technological change on both the shopper and retailer side of the shopping equation will result in a dramatic shift in the options available to consumers as they shop and pay for what they buy in brick-and-mortar stores in 2020. Virtual reality, 3D printing, beacon technology enabling hyper-personalized in-store messaging to shoppers' smartphones and wearables allowing hands-free payment are just a few of the innovations that will be on the way to changing the in-store shopping environment by 2020.

At the same time, brick-and-mortar retailers will be under increasing competitive pressure from online retailers that are able to meet the demands of customers ordering up products for same-day delivery. In 2020 brick-and-mortar retailers will face a significant problem in attracting shoppers, especially Millennials, unless they implement technological innovations creating a shopping experience that integrates in-store and online shopping.

Scope of the Report

This Packaged Facts report forecasts how the American economy will perform and envisions how the American consumer will behave in 2020. It includes an analysis of the trends likely to shape the demographic profile of consumers in 2020, a review of the factors that will influence the magnitude of consumer spending in 2020, an assessment of how consumer spending patterns are likely to change between 2015 and 2020, and a projection of shifts in the shopping and retailing environment that are likely to occur by 2020.

Methodology

Consumer data in this report come from two primary sources. The first source is the Packaged Facts National Online Consumer Survey conducted in August 2015. These surveys reflect a panel of 2,000 U.S. adults (age 18+) that is balanced to the national population on the primary demographic measures of gender, age bracket, race/ethnicity, geographic region, marital status, presence or absence of children in the household and household income.

Another source of consumer data in this report is the Simmons National Consumer Study (NCS) for Winter 2014-which was fielded from February 2014 through March 2015-and Spring 2005 (for trend analysis tables) from Experian Marketing Services. On an ongoing basis, Experian Marketing Services conducts booklet-based surveys of a large and random sample of consumers (approximately 25,000 for each 12-month survey compilation) who in aggregate represent a statistically accurate cross-section of the U.S. population.

U.S. Government sources include the Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve System, including the Atlanta and St. Louis regional Federal Reserve Banks, and the General Accountability Office. The report cites surveys and studies conducted by a wide range of private sector organizations and is also based upon data collected from a wide range of industry sources, including company websites, trade publications, business newspapers and magazines and consumer blogs.

Table of Contents

Chapter 1: Executive Summary

  • Scope of the Report
    • Methodology
      • Table 1-1 Selected Data Sources
    • Insights and Opportunities
    • What the Future Holds for the American Economy
    • Demographic Shifts Will Change the Marketing and Retail Environment
    • Frugal Spending Habits Learned in Great Recession Will Die Hard
    • Consumers Foresee Demise of Traditional Print Media but Not TV
    • Technology Will Start to Revolutionize the Shopping Experience
    • Millennials Will Lead the Retail Revolution
    • Boomers Will Provide Major Opportunity for Retailers in 2020
    • Multicultural Consumers More Prominent in 2020
    • Affluent Consumers Will Be Key in 2020
    • Demographic Profile of American Consumers in 2020
    • An Aging Consumer Population
    • A More Diverse Population of Consumers
    • Fewer Traditional Households
    • A Growing Divide between Haves and Have-Nots
    • The American Consumer Economy in 2020
    • Factors Supporting Robust Consumer Spending by 2020
    • Factors Leading to Modest Consumer Spending by 2020
    • Projected Consumer Spending in 2020
    • Consumer Spending Patterns in 2020
    • Trends Affecting Consumer Expenditure Patterns in 2020
    • Changes in Consumer Spending Patterns in 2020
    • American Shoppers and Retailers in 2020
    • Millennial Minimalism Will Change Ground Rules
    • Consumers Will Expect More On-Demand Products and Services
    • Consumers Will Demand Hyper-Personalized Attention from Retailers
    • Shoppers Will Become "Channel Agnostics" and "Omniconsumers"
    • Retail Channels Will Reconfigure to Adapt to Shrinking Middle Class
    • Technology Will Transform Shopping

Chapter 2: Insights and Opportunities

  • Topline Insights
  • What the Future Holds for the American Economy
    • Figure 2-1 Percent Agreeing "I Am Optimistic about the Future," 2015
    • Figure 2-2 Percent Agreeing "My Job Prospects Look Good over the Next Few Years," 2015
    • Table 2-1 Measures of Consumer Optimism about the Future Five Years from Now, 2015
  • Demographic Shifts Will Change the Marketing and Retail Environment
    • Table 2-2 Selected Demographic Trends Affecting the American Consumer Economy in 2020
  • Frugal Spending Habits Learned in Great Recession Will Die Hard
    • Table 2-3 Consumer Views of Their Likely Spending Patterns over the Next Few Years, 2015
  • Technology Will Start to Revolutionize the Shopping Experience
    • Table 2-4 Consumer Views of What Shopping Will Be Like Five Years from Now, 2015
  • Consumers Foresee Demise of Traditional Print Media but Not TV
    • Table 2-5 Consumer Views of What Media Usage Will Be Like Five Years from Now, 2015
  • Marketing Opportunities in 2020
  • Millennials Will Lead the Retail Revolution
    • Figure 2-3 Percent Expecting to Use Smartphones More Often for Shopping and Financial Transactions in 2020 by Age Group
    • Table 2-6 Use of Mobile Phones When Shopping by Age Group, 2015
  • Millennials Will Be Elusive Target for Brick-and-Mortar Retailers
    • Table 2-7 Attitudes toward Use of the Internet for Shopping by Age Group, 2015
    • Table 2-8 Selected Online Shopping Activities by Age Group, 2015
    • Table 2-9 Attitudes toward Shopping by Age Group, 2015
  • Boomers Will Provide Major Opportunity for Retailers in 2020
    • Table 2-10 Distribution of Aggregate Household Net Worth by Age of Householder, 2011 (in billion $)
  • Boomers Will Offer Hope to Brick-and-Mortar Retailers in 2020
    • Table 2-11 Retail Outlets Shopped in Last Three Months by 60- to 69-Year-Olds, 2005 vs. 2015
    • Table 2-12 Type of Store Where Made a Purchase in Last Four Weeks by Age Group, 2015
  • Affluent Consumers Will Be Key in 2020
  • Multicultural Consumers More Prominent in 2020

Chapter 3: Demographic Profile of American Consumers in 2020

  • An Aging Consumer Population
  • 2020 Population Marked by Maturing Millennials and Aging Boomers
    • Table 3-1 Projected U.S. Population Growth by Age Groups, 2015 vs. 2020 (in thousands)
    • Figure 3-1 Changes in Structure of U.S. Population by Age Groups, 2015 vs. 2020
    • Figure 3-2 U.S. Population by Age Groups, 2020
  • Youth Population Will Decline as Older Consumers Come to the Fore
    • Table 3-2 Projected Population Growth by Selected Age Groups, 2015 vs. 2020 (in thousands)
    • Table 3-3 Selected Age Groups as Percent of Total Population, 2015 vs. 2020
  • A More Diverse Population of Consumers
  • Growth of Multicultural Population Will Accelerate
    • Figure 3-3 Percent of Total Population by Race and Hispanic Origin, 2015 vs. 2020
  • Hispanic Population Will Register Highest Growth
    • Table 3-4 Projected Population Growth by Race and Hispanic Origin, 2015 vs. 2020 (in thousands)
    • Figure 3-4 Multicultural Population by Race and Hispanic Origin, 2020
  • America Will Still Beckon to Immigrants as Land of Opportunity
    • Figure 3-5 Percent of Foreign-Born in U.S. Population, Selected Years 2000-2020
    • Table 3-5 Projected Population Growth in Population by Nativity, 2015 vs. 2020 (in thousands)
  • Kids and Teens Will Form the Vanguard of More Diverse Population
    • Figure 3-6 Non-Hispanic Whites as Percent of Births, Selected Years 1990-2013
    • Figure 3-7 Multicultural Population Segments as Percent of Population by Age Group, 2014 Source: Packaged Facts based on data compiled from U.S. Census Bureau.
    • Table 3-6 Change in Size of Multicultural and Non-Hispanic White
  • Populations under 15 Years of Age, 2000-2013 (in thousands)
    • Table 3-7 Non-Hispanic Whites as Percent of Entire Population Under 15 Years of Age, 2000 vs. 2013
  • Color Lines Will Blur
  • Acculturation Will Have Major Impact on Latino Consumers
    • Table 3-8 Nativity of Hispanics, 2000 vs. 2013 (in thousands)
    • Table 3-9 Growth in Number of U.S.- and Foreign-Born Hispanics, 2000 vs. 2013 (in thousands)
    • Table 3-10 English-Language Ability of Hispanics Five Years Old and Over, 2000 vs. 2013 (in thousands)
    • Table 3-11 Hispanics Five Years Old and Over by Language Use, 2000 vs. 2013
    • Table 3-12 Language Media Preferences of Hispanic Adults, 2014
    • Table 3-13 Measures of Acculturation of Hispanic Adults by Language Spoken at Home, 2014
  • Fewer Traditional Households
  • Smaller Households without Children Will Trend Upward
    • Figure 3-8 Number of Households with Children vs. Number of One- Person Households, Selected Years 1960-2014 (in millions)
    • Figure 3-9 Number of Households with Four Persons or More, Selected Years 1960-2014 (in millions)
  • Single-Parent Households Will Grow in Importance
    • Figure 3-10 Single-Parent vs. Two-Parent Households with Children, Selected Years 1950-2014 (percent of all households with children)
    • Figure 3-11 Projected Number of Single-Parent Households with Children, 2015-2020 (in millions)
  • Women Will Head More Households
    • Figure 3-12 Percent of Households Headed by Women, Selected Years 1950-2014
    • Figure 3-13 Number of Households Headed by Women, 2015 vs. 2020 (in thousands)
  • LGBT Families Will Become More Prominent Market Segment
    • Table 3-14 Estimates of Same-Sex Couples by American Community Survey, 2008-2013
  • A Growing Divide between Haves and Have-Nots
  • Long-Term Trends Lead to a Two-Tier Economy
    • Figure 3-14 Increase in Mean Household Income by Quintile and Top 5% of Households, 2013 vs. 1970 (in 2013 dollars)
  • Wealth Disparity Even Greater than Income Gap
  • Hollowing Out of Middle-Income Consumer Segment Will Have Major Impact
    • Table 3-15 Median Net Worth of Highest-Income and Middle-Income
  • Families, Selected Years 1989-2013 (in thousand $)
    • Figure 3-15 Difference in Median Net Worth of Highest-Income and
  • Middle-Income Families, Selected Years 1989-2013
  • Stark Economic Differences within Large Metro Areas

Chapter 4: The American Consumer Economy in 2020

  • Factors Supporting Robust Consumer Spending by 2020
  • Household Formation Will Accelerate
    • Figure 4-1 Percent of 25- to 34-Year-Olds Living in Household of Parents by Gender, Selected Years 1990-2014
    • Figure 4-2 Number of 25- to 34-Year-Olds Living in Household of Parents by Gender, 2005 vs. 2014 (in thousands)
    • Figure 4-3 Number of Households Formed Annually, 2000-2014 (in thousands)
    • Figure 4-4 Projected Number of Households, 2015-2020 (in millions)
  • Reviving Housing Market Will Boost Economy
  • Boomers Will Work Longer
    • Figure 4-5 Percent of Adults 55 Years Old and Over Participating in the Labor Force, Selected Years 1992-2022
    • Figure 4-6 Adults 55 Years Old and Over as Percent of Civilian Labor Force, Selected Years 1992-2022
    • Table 4-1 Size of Civilian Labor Force by Age Group, Selected Years 1992-2022 (projected) (in thousands)
  • Affluent Consumers Have Regained Confidence
    • Table 4-2 Percent Annual Change in Average Consumer Spending by Third and Top Quintiles of Income, 2005-2013
    • Figure 4-7 Percent of Adults with a High Degree of Consumer Confidence by Household Income, 2004-2015
    • Figure 4-8 Percent of Adults with a High Degree of Consumer Confidence by Household Income, 2009 vs. 2015
  • Latinos and African Americans Still Believe in the American Dream
    • Figure 4-9 Percent of Adults with a High Degree of Consumer Confidence by Race and Hispanic Origin, 2004 vs. 2015
    • Figure 4-10 Percent of Adults with a High Degree of Consumer Confidence by Party Identification, 2004-2015
    • Factors Leading to Modest Consumer Spending by 2020
  • Great Recession Casts a Pall on the Future
  • Aging Population Will Slow Down the Economy
    • Figure 4-11 Average Consumer Expenditures by Age, 2014
    • Figure 4-12 Percent of Highly Confident Consumers by Age Group, 2004-2015
  • Two-Tier Economy Will Hamper Growth
    • Figure 4-13 Consumer Expenditures as Percent of Pre-Tax Income by Income Decile, 2014
  • Too Many Part-Time and Temp Workers Will Place Drag on Spending
  • High Rental Costs Will Dampen Discretionary Spending
    • Figure 4-14 Homeownership Rates, Selected Years 1995-2015
  • Slow Growth in Labor Force Will Hamper Economy
  • Sharing and "No Ownership" Culture Will Temper Consumer Spending
  • Economy Weighed Down by Educational Loans
  • Baby Bust Will Prove to Be Near-Term Economic Drag
  • Too Many Boomers Lack Sufficient Retirement Resources
  • Projected Consumer Spending in 2020
  • Economic Forecasts Project Modest Growth through 2020
    • Table 4-3 Selected Economic Indicators, Congressional Budget Office, 2015 vs. 2020
    • Figure 4-15 Percent Growth in Real GDP and Personal Consumption Expenditures, Selected Decades 1942-2022 (Projected)
    • Table 4-4 Economic Projections of Federal Reserve Board Presidents and Federal Reserve Bank Presidents, June 2015 2015 and Beyond
  • Consumer Spending Will Grow Steadily Through 2020
    • Figure 4-16 Growth in Personal Consumption Expenditures, 2015-2020 (in billion $)

Chapter 5: Consumer Spending Patterns in 2020

  • Trends Affecting Consumer Expenditure Patterns in 2020
  • Overview
    • Figure 5-1 Percent Annual Growth in Real Personal Consumption Expenditures, 1995-2014
    • Figure 5-2 Percent Annual Growth Rate in Real Personal Consumption Expenditures, Selected Periods 1998-2014
    • Figure 5-3 Percent Annual Growth Rate in Consumer Expenditures, 1995-2013
  • Essential Spending Has Been Eating Up Household Budgets
  • Middle-Income Consumers Hit Hard
  • Even the Affluent Closed Their Wallets after the Great Recession
    • Figure 5-4 Percent of Aggregate Consumer Expenditures by
  • Consumer Units with Income of $150,000 or More, 2004 vs. 2014
    • Table 5-1 Percent Difference in Selected Consumer Expenditures in 2007 and 2013, Consumer Units with Income of Less than $70,000 vs. Consumer Units with Income of $150,000 or More
  • Boomers Have Begun to Drive Consumer Spending
    • Figure 5-5 Percent of Aggregate Consumer Expenditures by Age Group, 2004 vs. 2014
    • Figure 5-6 Percent of Aggregate Consumer Expenditures by Consumers in the 55+ Age Group, 2004 vs. 2014
  • "Leading-Edge" Boomers Are Spending More on Discretionary Items
  • Changes in Consumer Spending Patterns in 2020
  • Boomers Will Capture Largest Share of Aggregate Income
  • Aging Population Will Affect Consumer Spending in 2020
    • Table 5-5 Percent Allocated to Selected Consumer Expenditure Categories, Consumer Units with Reference Person 55 Years Old and Over vs. All Consumer Units, 2014
  • Maturing Millennials Will Spark Shift in Spending
    • Table 5-6 Percent Allocated to Selected Consumer Expenditure Categories, Consumer Units with 25- to 44-Year Old Householder vs. All Consumer Units, 2014
  • Multicultural Consumers Will Grow in Importance
    • Figure 5-7 Share of Multicultural Consumer Expenditures by Race and Hispanic Origin, 2020
  • Multicultural Consumers Will Affect Overall Expenditure Patterns
    • Table 5-8 Percent Allocated to Selected Consumer Expenditure Categories by Race and Hispanic Origin, 2014
  • Two-Tier Economy Will Have an Impact
    • Table 5-9 Consumer Expenditures by Consumer Units in Highest Income Decile

Chapter 6: American Shoppers and Retailers in 2020

  • Cultural Trends Affecting the Future of Shopping and Retail
  • Millennial Minimalism Will Change Ground Rules
  • Sharing Economy Will Expand
  • Consumers Will Expect More On-Demand Products and Services
  • Same-Day Delivery Will Take Hold
    • Table 6-1 Where Consumers Have Purchased Products Online in the Past 12 Months for Same-Day Home Delivery, 2015
  • Many Consumers See Drones in their Future
  • Consumers Will Demand Hyper-Personalized Attention from
  • Retailers
  • Shoppers Will Become "Channel Agnostics" and "Omniconsumers"
  • Socially Responsible Marketers Will Win Out
    • Figure 6-1 Percent Agreeing "I Am More Likely to Purchase a Product from a Company that Is Environmentally Friendly" by Age Group, 2015
  • Authentic Marketing and Artisanal Products Will Matter More
  • Economic Forces Shaping the Future of Retail
  • Two-Tier Economy Will Continue to Disrupt Retail Industry
  • Retail Channels Will Reconfigure to Adapt to Shrinking Middle Class
  • Impact of Technology on the Shopping Experience
  • Brick-and-Mortar Retailers Will Look to "Internet of Things"
    • Table 6-2 Shopping Habits of Consumers Who "Often Buy Products Online for Home Delivery," 2015
  • Virtual Reality Will Transform Shopping
  • 3D Printing Will Enable Shoppers to Make Their Own Thing
  • Lowe's Imagines the Future
  • Amazon Taps into the Future of Customer Convenience
  • Beacon Technology Will Be Widespread
  • In-Store Use of Mobile Phones Has Much Room for Growth
    • Table 6-3 Use of Mobile Phone as Shopping Tool in Retail Environment in Last 12 Months, 2015
  • Privacy Concerns Will Create Challenges for Retailers
  • The Future of Mobile Payments
  • Technology Will Change How Consumers Pay for What They Buy
  • Wearables Will Play Greater Role in Shopping and Retailing
  • In-Store Payments Still Made the Old-Fashioned Way
    • Table 6-4 Payment Methods Used at Cash Register or Actual Sales Location in Last 12 Months, 2014
  • Pace of Change on Payments Front Will Be Slow
  • Millennials Will Help Change Payments Landscape
  • Fig 6-2 Percent Making Mobile (Cellphone or Tablet) Payments by Age Group, 2015
  • Fig 6-3 Percent Who Agree "I Would Be Interested in a Service that Would Allow Me to Make Purchases in a Store," 2015
  • The Future of Grocery Shopping
  • The Rise of "Delivery Nation" Will Cause Shifts in Food Industry
  • Grocery Shopping Will Be Very Different in 2020
    • Table 6-5 Percent Shopping for Groceries within Last Month Online or Using a Mobile App, 2015
    • Table 6-6 Where Consumers Shopped for Groceries within Last Month Online or Using a Mobile App, 2015
  • Supermarket Mobile Apps Engage Foodies
    • Table 6-7 Percent Who Have Used and Will Continue To Use a Supermarket Mobile App by Type of Activity, Foodies vs. All Adults, 2015
  • Food Marketers and Retailers Will Be Forced to Adapt
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