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米国のフードサービス市場の動向:外食産業と消費者動向

The Foodservice Landscape in the U.S.: Restaurant Industry and Consumer Trends, 2nd Edition

発行 Packaged Facts 商品コード 230627
出版日 ページ情報 英文 272 Pages
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米国のフードサービス市場の動向:外食産業と消費者動向 The Foodservice Landscape in the U.S.: Restaurant Industry and Consumer Trends, 2nd Edition
出版日: 2012年02月01日 ページ情報: 英文 272 Pages
概要

米国経済の回復は依然として脆弱なものの、米国の外食産業は2011年に6%成長し、2012年も4.2%の成長が予測されております

当レポートでは、米国のフードサービス市場の動向について調査分析を行い、市場動向、企業戦略の動向、市場規模、成長予測などについて考察してまとめ、概略下記の構成で取り上げております。

第1章 エグゼクティブサマリー

第2章 市場シェア:レストラン売上分析

  • 概要
  • 市場規模と見通し
  • 業績分析
  • 業績と見通し:レストラン
  • 業績と見通し:軽食/飲料
  • 業績と見通し:ファストフード
  • 業績と見通し:ファミリーレストラン
  • 業績と見通し:カジュアルレストラン
  • 高級料理店の落ち込みが最も大きい
  • 消費者の支出動向

第3章 レストランのマクロ経済学的分析

  • 概要
  • 2014年までの景気予測
  • 分析:消費者信頼感とフードサービス
  • 分析:雇用とフードサービス
  • フードサービスの利用と分析
  • 分析:支出、ウェルス、負債の動向
  • 食品価格の見通し

第4章 レストラン産業の来店者数動向

  • 概要
  • フードサービスの利用:形態別
  • レストランの来店者数/来店頻度比較:2008年〜2011年
  • レストラン利用動向:年齢別
  • レストラン利用動向:世帯収入別
  • 世帯収入5万米ドル以上のセルフサービスレストランの利用が16%増加
  • レストラン利用動向:人種/民族別
  • レストラン利用動向:ヒスパニック系
  • レストラン利用動向:子どもの有無
  • レストランを利用する時間帯

第5章 レストランの食事とメニューの動向

  • 概要
  • 古いマーケティング用語

第6章 レストラン:健康の動向

  • カロリーの動向
  • 外食産業の成長と肥満の関係
  • 政府と産業の取組みが活発に
  • 2010年医療改革法
  • メニューへの反映
  • 健康的なメニューの導入

第7章 レストランの価格、プロモーション、ブランディング戦略

  • 概要
  • ファスト・カジュアル
  • ロイヤルティの構築
  • デイリーディール:ソーシャルクーポンの賛否
  • 変化する価値
  • P.F. Chang'sは価格を引き下げ

第8章 外食技術の動向

  • モバイル消費者:モバイル技術
  • モバイルペイメント
  • その他の発展

第9章 レストランブランド分析:軽食/飲料

  • 概要
  • Starbucks Corporation
  • Dunkin' Donuts

第10章 レストランブランド分析:ファストフード

  • Burger King
  • McDonald's
  • Wendy's
  • Jack in the Box
  • Domino's Pizza
  • Chipotle Mexican Grill
  • Panera Bread

第11章 レストランブランド分析:ファミリー

  • 概要
  • Bob Evans

第12章 レストランブランド分析:カジュアル

  • 概要
  • Chili's Bar & Grill

第13章 レストランブランド分析:高級料理店

  • 概要
  • Morton's The Steakhouse
  • Ruth's Chris Steak House

付録

目次
Product Code: LA6497863

Abstract

While the U.S. economic recovery remains fragile, we find much for the restaur

ant industry to celebrate. Packaged Facts' Foodservice Landscape forecasts restaurant growth of 4.2% in 2012, on the heels of 6% market growth in 2011.

Nonetheless, the industry continues to face significant challenges. For the past three years, guest traffic volume has come entirely from population growth, not usage increase. Restaurant operators across restaurant segments must also contend with the increased numbers of lower-spending guests and with the loss of higher-income patrons, which has translated to higher volume but lower guest check averages.

Food commodity price increases could also threaten the continuation of the 2010-2011 sales recovery. And while our analysis calls into question the impact of consumer confidence on guest visit frequency, further declines in the unemployment rate are needed to spur restaurant industry growth, as our analysis supports a relationship between the unemployment rate and guest visit frequency across a range of restaurant segments.

This report provides the guidance industry participants need to understand industry and consumer trends shaping the U.S. foodservice landscape, including the quick-service, fast casual, family, casual and fine dining restaurant segments:

  • Restaurant price, promotion and branding strategy assessment, including stepped up industry "fast casualization"; the effect of daily deals on customer ordering habits; and restaurant operators' menu pricing and promotion strategies.
  • Macro-economic analysis & trending, including an economic forecast through 2014; consumer confidence trends and their application to foodservice; employment trends and their application to foodservice; consumer spending, wealth and debt trends and their application to foodservice; and retail and commodity food price trends and forecasts.
  • Restaurant industry guest traffic trending, including guest traffic count and visit frequency comparisons for three restaurant segments (snack and beverage, limited-service and full-service), along with analysis by demographic and by daypart.
  • Industry-leading restaurant brand analysis covering each major restaurant segment, including menu strategies; customer food lifestyle segmentation analysis; trended guest visit frequency analysis; and performance metrics.
  • Restaurant cuisine & menu trending, focusing on menu item penetration by restaurant segment, including top proteins, sides, kids' items, healthy claims, and preparation methods.
  • Market size and forecast for restaurant and drinking place sales, same-store sales analysis of major brands for 2005-2011, and consumer restaurant spending by segment for 2007-2010.
  • Assessment of health and wellness trends shaping the restaurant industry, including obesity and calorie count trends; health and food away from home correlations; government and industry health initiatives; and menu labeling effectiveness.
  • Restaurant technology trend analysis, with a focus on increasingly mobile communication-oriented consumers and emerging mobile payment technologies.

Table of Contents

Chapter 1: Executive Summary

  • Scope and Methodology
    • Scope of coverage
  • Methodology
    • Consumer survey methodology
    • Market size and forecast
    • Consumer restaurant spend trending
    • Menu item trend analysis
    • Other sources
    • Restaurant categories
    • Limited-service restaurant definitions
    • Full-service restaurant definitions
    • Other definitions
  • Share of Stomach: Restaurant Sales Analysis
    • Insight capsule
  • Restaurant Macroeconomic Analysis
    • Insight capsule
    • Fast facts
  • Restaurant industry guest traffic trends
    • Insight capsule
    • Fast facts
  • Restaurant cuisine & menu trends
    • Insight capsule
  • Restaurant Health & Wellness Trends
    • Insight capsule
  • Restaurant price, promotion and branding strategies
    • Insight capsule
  • Restaurant Technology Trends
    • Insight capsule

Chapter 2: Share of Stomach: Restaurant Sales Analysis

  • Overview

Market size and forecast

  • Shaping growth
    • A fragile economy performing moderately well
    • Food commodity prices a potential boogeyman
    • Significant growth will remain elusive until unemployment rate drops
    • Potential for long-term shift in HH income distribution
    • Catering to non-white racial/ethnic groups more important than ever
  • Market and forecast
  • Graph 2-1: Sales at Restaurants & Drinking Places, 2006-14
  • Graph 2-2: Sales at Restaurant & Drinking Places, % Change, 2006-14

Performance context

  • Food away from home spending share declines, but 2010 growth is stable
  • Graph 2-3: Food Away from Home vs. Food at Home, 2001-2010
  • Restaurant Performance Index exhibits moderate strength during 2011
  • Graph 2-4: Restaurant Performance Index, 2007-2011

Restaurant segment performance & outlook

  • Quarterly samestore sales comparisons, by brand and restaurant segment
    • Reading the graphs
    • One-year and multi-year comparisons

Snack and beverage restaurant performance & outlook

  • Coffee wins; treats lose
  • Graph 2-5: Snack & Beverage Restaurant Annual Same-Store Sales Index:
  • 2005-10, 2006-10, 2007-10 & 2008-2010
    • Positive segment momentum through 2011
  • Graph 2-6: Snack & Beverage Restaurant Quarterly Same-Store Sales Index:
  • 2008-11, 2009-11 & 2010-11

QSR performance & outlook

  • Outlook
  • QSR: The behemoth grows while others falter
  • Graph 2-7: Quick-Service Restaurant Annual Same-Store Sales Index:
  • 2005-10, 2006-10, 2007-10 & 2008-2010
    • Mixed momentum through 2011
  • Graph 2-8: Quick-Service Restaurant Quarterly Same-Store Sales Index:
  • 2005-10, 2006-10, 2007-10 & 2008-2010
  • Fast casual: some industry leaders, but growth far from universal
  • Graph 2-9: Fast Casual Restaurant Annual Same-Store Sales Index:
  • 2005-10, 2006-10, 2007-10 & 2008-2010
    • Positive momentum
  • Graph 2-10: Fast Casual Restaurant Quarterly Same-Store Sales Index:
  • 2008-11, 2009-11 & 2010-11
  • Pizza: Domino's shows sales leadership
  • Graph 2-11: Pizza Restaurant Annual Same-Store Sales Index:
  • 2005-10, 2006-10, 2007-10 & 2008-2010
  • Positive signs
  • Graph 2-12: Pizza Restaurant Quarterly Same-Store Sales Index:
  • 2008-11, 2009-11 & 2010-11

Family restaurant performance & outlook

  • Graph 2-13: Family Restaurant Annual Same-Store Sales Index:
  • 2005-10, 2006-10, 2007-10 & 2008-2010
    • Negative momentum
  • Graph 2-14: Family Restaurant Quarterly Same-Store Sales Index:
  • 2008-11, 2009-11 & 2010-11

Casual restaurant performance & outlook

  • Casual Bar & Grill narrows losses
  • Graph 2-15: Casual Bar & Grill Restaurant Annual Same-Store Sales Index:
  • 2005-10, 2006-10, 2007-10 & 2008-2010
    • Casual bar & grill momentum shifts markedly positive
  • Graph 2-16: Casual Bar & Grill Restaurant Quarterly Same-Store Sales Index:
  • 2008-11, 2009-11 & 2010-11
  • Casual Steak takes a beating
  • Graph 2-17: Casual Steak Restaurant Annual Same-Store Sales Index:
  • 2005-10, 2006-10, 2007-10 & 2008-2010
    • 2011 brings wind to sails
  • Graph 2-18: Casual Steak Restaurant Quarterly Same-Store Sales Index:
  • 2008-11, 2009-11 & 2010-11
  • Casual Italian
  • Graph 2-19: Casual Italian Restaurant Annual Same-Store Sales Index:
  • 2005-10, 2006-10, 2007-10 & 2008-2010
    • Olive Garden momentum falters
  • Graph 2-20: Casual Italian Restaurant Quarterly Same-Store Sales Index:
  • 2008-11, 2009-11 & 2010-11
  • International and seafood casual restaurants
  • Graph 2-21: Casual International Restaurant Annual Same-Store Sales Index:
  • 2005-10, 2006-10, 2007-10 & 2008-2010
    • Momentum returns
  • Graph 2-22: Casual International Restaurant Quarterly Same-Store Sales Index:
  • 2008-11, 2009-11 & 2010-11
  • Fine dining performance & outlook
  • Outlook

Fine dining restaurants fall the hardest

  • Graph 2-23: Fine Dining Restaurant Annual Same-Store Sales Index:
  • 2005-10, 2006-10, 2007-10 & 2008-2010
    • 2011 brings moderate rebound - but 2007 sales levels remain distant
  • Graph 2-24: Fine Dining Restaurant Quarterly Same-Store Sales Index:
  • 2008-11, 2009-11 & 2010-11

Consumer spending trends

  • Restaurant growth: follow the money
  • Table 2-1: Demographic Share of HH Income: 2007-2010
  • Follow the population
  • Table 2-2: Demographic Shares of Persons & Households: 2007-2010
  • Food at home gains
  • Hispanics driving growth in food spending
  • Table 2-3: Food, Food at Home, Food Away from Home & Restaurant Expense:
  • Hispanic v. Non-Hispanic, 2007-10
    • Driving restaurant spending
  • Table 2-4: Restaurant Share of Spend, by Restaurant Segment:
  • Hispanic v. Non-Hispanic, 2007-10
    • Driving dayparts
  • Table 2-5: Restaurant Share of Spend, by Daypart: Hispanic v. Non-Hispanic, 2007-10
  • Growth at opposite ends of the age spectrum
    • Lifestyle change to mark restaurant spending boom?
  • Table 2-6: Food, Food at Home, Food Away from Home & Restaurant Expense, by Age, 2007-10
    • Carrying full-service restaurants
  • Table 2-7: Share of Spend, by Restaurant Segment, by Age, 2007-10
    • Daypart spending trends
  • Table 2-8: Restaurant Share of Spend, by Daypart, by Age, 2007-10
  • HH income trends
  • Table 2-9: Food, Food at Home, Food Away from Home & Restaurant Expense, by HH Income, 2007-10
  • Table 2-10: Restaurant Share of Spend, by Restaurant Segment, by HH Income, 2007-10
    • Daypart trends
  • Table 2-11: Restaurant Share of Spend, by Daypart, by HH Income, 2007-10

Chapter 3: Restaurant Macroeconomic Analysis

Overview

  • Our take: muted optimism

Economic forecast through 2014

  • GDP: A long time getting back, but finally passes pre-recession levels
    • Forecast factors
  • Graph 3-1: Unemployment, GDP & Inflation Forecast, 2011-2014

Analysis: consumer confidence & foodservice

  • Consumer confidence remains abysmal but is rising from bottom
    • Present Situation Index increases business condition perceptions & job prospects brighten
    • Expectations Index rises on business conditions & job prospect optimism
  • Graph 3-2: Unemployment Rate, Savings Rate & Consumer Confidence, 2007-2011
  • Foodservice application and analysis
    • Strong correlations to LSR family, snack and beverage & high-frequency limited-service usage
  • Table 3-1: Degree of Consumer Confidence, Limited-Service Restaurant Use & Usage Frequency
    • Weaker correlation to full-service usage
  • Table 3-2: Degree of Consumer Confidence, Full-Service Restaurant Use & Usage Frequency
    • Tie between consumer confidence and restaurant brand performance?
  • Table 3-3: High-Confidence Consumers: Restaurant Brand Usage & High-Frequency Use

Analysis: employment & foodservice

  • Unemployment remains high but is tapering downward
    • Job openings rise

Foodservice application and analysis

  • Rise in the unemployment rate results in lower restaurant engagement
    • Limited-service restaurant usage among employed consumers remains stable
  • Table 3-4: Limited-Service Restaurant Usage Frequency Analysis, By Employment Status, 2008-2011
    • Full-service restaurant usage among employed consumers dips
  • Table 3-5: Full-Service Restaurant Usage Frequency Analysis, By Employment Status, 2008-2011
  • Demographic analysis
    • Trouble areas
    • Restaurant industry ramifications
    • Bright spots
    • Restaurant industry ramifications
  • Table 3-6: Unemployment Trends, by Demographic, October 2009 to December 2011

Analysis: spending, wealth and debt trends

  • Consumer spending ticks upward
    • Inflation-adjusted foodservice & accommodations consumer spending up 4% since 2005
  • Graph 3-3: Real Personal Consumption Expenditures by Type of Product,
  • Indexes, 2007-2011
    • Lower energy prices free up discretionary income for restaurant spending
  • Graph 3-4: U.S. Regular Gasoline Prices, 2007-2011
  • Household wealth gradually rebounds
  • Graph 3-5: Household Net Worth, 2005-2011
  • Wealth bedrocks follow two different paths
    • Home prices remain depressed
    • Wilshire 5000 reflects significant market gains & stock equity strength
  • Graph 3-6: Wealth Effect: Wilshire 5000 and Case-Shiller Index: 2007-2011
  • Consumer balance sheets undergoing repair
    • Household debt burden declines
    • Financial obligations ratios also drop
  • Graph 3-7: Consumer Debt Ratios: 2007-2011

Food price outlook

  • Commodity food prices
    • Commodity cost containment as profit margin protection
    • Menu pricing to become a more dicey proposition
    • Restaurant setback a possibility
    • McDonald's commodity costs to rise by 4.5% to 5% in 2012
    • Managing price increases
  • Graph 3-8: Producer Price Index, Selected Commodities, 2007-2011
  • Grocery and restaurant price outlook
  • Graph 3-9: CPI Forecast, Food at Home & Food Away From Home 2011 & 2012

Chapter 4: Restaurant Industry Guest Traffic Trends

Overview

  • NPD: Guest traffic trends and forecast summary

Foodservice usage, by foodservice establishment type

  • Fast food and convenience store foodservice share youth appeal
    • Usage among 55+s plummets
  • Table 4-1: Foodservice in Past Month, by Foodservice Outlet: Gender, Age & HH Income
  • Convenience store foodservice usage varies by race/ethnicity
    • More of an urban phenomenon
  • Table 4-2: Foodservice in Past Month, by Foodservice Outlet: Race/Ethnicity, Region & Population Density
  • Foodservice usage, by daypart
  • Lunch and dinner exhibit widest usage
    • Target female snackers
  • Table 4-3: Foodservice in Past Month, by Daypart: Gender, Age & HH Income
    • Hispanics a breakfast opportunity?
    • Urban versus rural
  • Table 4-4: Foodservice in Past Month, by Daypart: Race/Ethnicity, Region & Population Density

Restaurant guest traffic count and frequency comparisons, 2008-11

  • Visit frequency definitions
  • Population growth saves industry
  • Table 4-5: Restaurant Usage by Major Segment, 3-Year Growth Index, 2008-11
  • Stable guest visit frequency trends
  • Table 4-6: Limited-Service & Full-Service Restaurant Guest Visit Frequency, 2008-2011

Age restaurant usage trends

  • Snack and beverage usage declines
  • Table 4-7: Restaurant Segment Usage & Growth, by Generation, 2008-11
  • LSR guest visit frequency, by age
  • Graph 4-1: Limited-Service Restaurant Usage Frequency, by Age/Generation, 2011
  • Consumers age 45-64 lead usage growth
  • Table 4-8: Limited-Service Restaurant Guest Traffic Trending, by Age/Generation, 2008-2011
  • FSR guest visit frequency, by age
  • Graph 4-2: Full-Service Restaurant Usage Frequency, by Age/Generation, 2011
    • Gen Y leads full-service traffic growth
  • Table 4-9: Full-Service Restaurant Guest Traffic Trending, by Age/Generation, 2008-2011

HH income restaurant usage trends

  • Downward migration in HH income has serious ramifications for restaurant industry
  • Table 4-10: Restaurant Segment Usage & Growth, by HH Income, 2008-11
  • LSR guest visit frequency, by HH income
  • Graph 4-3 Limited-Service Restaurant Usage Frequency, by HH Income, 2011

<$50K HH income LSR users increase 16%

  • Table 4-11: Limited-Service Restaurant Segment Usage & Growth, by HH Income, 2008-11
    • Usage increases most pronounced among <$25K & <$25-$49K HH income users
  • Table 4-12: Limited-Service Restaurant Guest Traffic Trending, by HH Income, 2008-2011
  • FSR guest visit frequency, by HH income
  • Graph 4-4: Full-Service Restaurant Usage Frequency, by HH Income, 2011
    • Loss of $50K+ FSR users not made up by gains in <$50K HH income users
  • Table 4-13: Full-Service Restaurant Segment Usage & Growth, by HH Income, 2008-11
  • Table 4-14: Full-Service Restaurant Guest Traffic Trending, by HH Income, 2008-2011

Race/ethnicity restaurant usage trends

  • Table 4-15: Restaurant Segment Usage & Growth, by Race/Ethnicity, 2008-11
  • LSR guest visit frequency, by race/ethnicity
  • Graph 4-5: Limited-Service Restaurant Usage Frequency, by Race/Ethnicity, 2011
  • FSR guest visit frequency, by race/ethnicity
  • Graph 4-6: Full-Service Restaurant Usage Frequency, by Race/Ethnicity, 2011

Hispanic restaurant usage trends

  • Table 4-16: Limited-Service & Full-Service Restaurant Guest Traffic Trending, Hispanics,
  • 2008-2011

Presence of children restaurant usage trends

  • LSR guest visit frequency, by presence of children
  • Graph 4-7: Limited-Service Restaurant Usage Frequency,
  • by Presence of Children, 2011
  • FSR guest visit frequency, by presence of children
  • Graph 4-8: Full-Service Restaurant Usage Frequency,
  • by Presence of Children, 2011

Daypart guest visit frequency

  • Summary analysis
    • Dinner remains biggest draw
    • Breakfast and snack growth
    • LSR breakfast, LSR dinner and FSR snack outpace other daypart segments
  • Table 4-17: Restaurant Use, by Daypart and Restaurant Segment, 2008-11
  • Daypart restaurant usage, by age
  • Table 4-18: 2011 Daypart Use, by Restaurant Segment: Age
  • Daypart restaurant usage growth, by age
    • Percentage breakfast use among 35-44s grows over time
    • Percentage snacking use among 25-34s on the upswing
  • Table 4-19: 2008-2011 Daypart Usage Growth, by Restaurant Segment: Age
  • Daypart restaurant usage, by HH income
  • Table 4-20: 2011 Daypart Use, by Restaurant Segment: HH Income
  • Daypart restaurant usage growth, by HH income
  • Table 4-21: 2008-2011 Daypart Usage Growth, by Restaurant Segment: HH Income

Chapter 5: Restaurant Cuisine & Menu Trends

Overview

  • Datassential
  • What's hot?
  • Table 5-1: Top Menu Trends, 2011
  • Restaurant segment distribution
  • Table 5-2: Restaurant Brand Distribution, by Segment, 2011
  • Top proteins
  • Table 5-3: Top 10 Proteins, Restaurant Penetration, by Segment, 2011
  • Top sides
  • Table 5-4: Top 10 Sides, Restaurant Penetration, by Segment, 2011
  • Kids' menu item analysis
    • Hot trends
  • Table 5-5: Top Kids Menu Trends, 2011
  • Table 5-6: Top Kids Items, Restaurant Penetration, by Segment, 2011
  • Healthy menu claims
  • Table 5-7: Top 10 Healthy Claims, Restaurant Penetration, by Segment, 2011
    • Menu presence trends
  • Table 5-8: Top 10 Healthy Claims, Restaurant Penetration, 2007-11
  • Preparation method analysis
  • Hot preparation methods
  • Table 5-9: Hot Preparation Method Trends, 2011
    • Top preparation methods
  • Table 5-10: Top Preparation Methods, Restaurant Penetration, by Segment, 2011
  • Mexican menu presence dwarfs those of other Latin American regions
  • Table 5-11: Latino/Hispanic Cuisine: Restaurant Industry
  • Menu Incidence & Brand Penetration, by Segment, 2011

Marketing claims that jumped the shark

  • Words the restaurant industry has killed
    • Artisan? Are you sure?
    • Stretching "local" boundaries
    • Handmade, yes; but does saying so really convey anything?

Chapter 6: Restaurant Health & Wellness Trends

  • Making health a priority

The argument in dollars and cents: $150 billion a year

  • Calories trending higher
  • Long-term calories trend: negative; short-term trend: positive
  • Graph 6-1: Caloric Intake by Food Group: Number of Calories, 1970-2009

Restaurant industry growth and the obesity connection

  • Frequency of restaurant use correlates with negative diet self-perception
    • Fast food correlation even stronger
  • Eating out and calories: 1 meal out a week = 2 extra pounds a year
  • Diet and health tied to type of restaurant frequented
    • Burgers and fries
    • Sandwich/sub
    • Full-service
  • Consumers underestimate restaurant meal calories
    • Calorie underreporting raises concerns

Government and industry initiatives quickly gathering steam

  • MyPlate
  • HealthierUS School Challenge
  • Kids LiveWell

Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010

  • Health professionals' hopes
  • Barriers to effectiveness
    • No change in transaction volume or calories per transaction
    • Increased consumer awareness
    • Consumer confusion
    • Health apathy at POS
    • Interaction with restaurant labeling differs from grocery labeling
  • Expect behavioral change
    • NPD says calorie information will have little effect on consumer ordering: we disagree
    • Study context
    • Changes in food choices and spend

On the menu

  • How to promote health on the menu
  • Table 6-1: Successful Health and Nutrition Promotion Strategies, 2011
  • Reduce the added sugar
    • How much is too much?
  • Hold the salt
    • The cost savings: $32.1 billion?
    • The restaurant connection
  • Healthy claims: inherent health leads the pack
  • Table 6-2: Top Healthy Claims: Restaurant Penetration by Segment, 2011
  • Healthy claims: trend leaders
  • Table 6-3: Top Healthy Claims: Restaurant Penetration, 2007-11
  • Mini trend tapers, but opportunity remains
    • Next step: portion control without labels
    • Mini-desserts: incenting use while limiting food content
    • A trend with legs
  • "Healthy": more expensive and often not so healthy
    • Restaurant segment analysis reveals significant price differences
  • "Natural" QSR menu items do exist; but does natural mean "healthy"?
  • Consumers' propensity to health and nutrition on the upswing
    • Few have been ordering healthy items
    • But interest in food health is there
    • The upside
    • The downside
  • Graph 6-2: Food & Diet Propensities: Healthful Propensities, 2007-11
  • Graph 6-3: Food & Diet Propensities: Indulgence & Dieting, 2007-11
    • Self-care on the upswing
  • Graph 6-4: Food & Diet Propensities: Knowledge, Money & Time, 2007-11
    • Packaged Facts' proprietary psychographic analysis

Healthy menu introductions

  • Whataburger
    • Einstein Bros. Bagels

Chapter 7: Restaurant Price, Promotion and Branding Strategies

Overview

Fast casual as nexus of change

  • Facing a hard reality
  • Countering full-service malaise with fast casual concepts: rationales
  • Brand launches
    • Red Robin Burger Works
    • IHOP Express
    • IHOP Cafe
  • A "signature" Steak 'n Shake
  • Warning: "fast casual" not the easy, simple solution to sales woes
  • Pei Wei fast casual brand not immune to lowering menu prices
    • Pei Wei Diner Select
    • Lower price points lower the barrier to purchase frequency
  • Stripped down fast casual: Pei Wei Asian Market
    • "No service" strategy
    • Non-traditional locations
  • JambaGo: a non-traditional market foray

Building loyalty

  • E-mail incentives trigger follow up visits
    • Tie to cause marketing
    • Make it more rewarding

Daily deals: weighing the pros and cons of social couponing

  • Daily deal sites
    • The "Groupon" effect
    • An overblown concern?
    • Pros
    • Cons
    • Who daily dealers take with them
    • How daily dealers choose the restaurant
    • Daily dealer spending and ordering behavior
    • Cannibalization effect
    • Intent to return and recommend

Spinning value

  • Moving away from extreme affordability
    • Burger King jettisons $1 menu items
    • Wendy's eschews extreme affordability: W mid-tier offering incents value meal trade up
  • Value as choice
  • Cheesecake Factory promotes tiered pricing

P.F. Chang's moves price points downstream

  • Olive Garden lowers entree-level price points to incent lower-income guests
    • Strengthens everyday affordability to reach lower-income households
  • At Denny's, everyday value provides the foundation; LTOs provide the balance
    • $2 $4 $6 $8 Value Menu delivers a chunk of sales
    • LTOs provide trade-up incentive
  • Everyday combos
  • Everyday value promotion: dueling 2 for $20 promotions
  • Family bundles
  • All-you-can-eat
  • Upselling on quality: Domino's
    • Product reformulation pays huge dividends
    • Balancing low-price promotions with higher quality introductions
    • Artisan Pizza promises quality; provides upselling ammunition
  • Expanding the demographic
    • Supplementing menu with more healthful offerings
    • Expanding cuisine reach

Chapter 8: Restaurant Technology Trends

  • Overview

Mobile consumers; mobile technology

  • Why it matters
    • A plethora of consumer-facing potential
    • Note on location-based services
  • Online ordering evolves
    • Shift to multi-concept platforms
  • Adapting online ordering to mobile technology
  • A youth driven phenomenon
  • Graph 6-1: Mobility & Technology Index, by Age, 2010
  • Restaurant lifestyle engagement informs technology use
  • Table 6-1: Mobility & Technology Attitudes & Behaviors
  • Table 6-2: Mobility & Technology Attitudes & Behaviors, Restaurant Lifestyle Group
    • Higher-frequency restaurant users' technology connection
  • Table 6-3: Mobility & Technology Attitudes & Behaviors, High-Frequency Restaurant Segment Users, Selected Restaurant Segments
  • Success story: Five Guys
    • Mobile share of online ordering: 33%

Mobile payments

  • Why it matters
    • A new era of speed and convenience
    • Quicker card-based restaurant service
    • Usage is nascent, but consumer interest is there
  • NFC payments set for launch and quick uptake
  • Apple and Google in the wings
  • Google Wallet arriving at a restaurant near you
  • Starbucks takes the barcode route
    • Benefits
    • Stored value card foundation
    • 26 million transactions and counting

Other developments

  • Remote drive-thru ordering
  • Mobile POS growth
    • Buffalo Wild Wings testing iPad ordering
  • MCD TV
    • Incenting sit-down sales?
  • Call centers build incremental sales

Chapter 9: Restaurant Brand Analysis: Snack & Beverage Segment

Overview

  • Performance summary: snack and beverage restaurant segment
    • Coffee wins; treats lose
  • GRAPH 9-1: Snack & Beverage Restaurant Annual Same-Store Sales Index:
  • 2005-10, 2006-10, 2007-10 & 2008-2010
    • Positive segment momentum
  • Graph 9-2: Snack & Beverage Restaurant Quarterly Same-Store Sales Index:
  • 2008-11, 2009-11 & 2010-11

Starbucks Corporation

  • Beverages comprise three-quarters of retail sales
  • Table 9-1: Starbucks, Revenue Mix by Product Type, 2009-2011
  • Recession response
    • Menu pricing strategies and customer incentives
  • Social media and technology innovation
    • A holistic approach firing on all cylinders
    • Driving toward a strong, unified emotional connection
    • Food and drink customization online
    • My Starbucks Idea
    • Brand managers mingling with the people: what a concept!
    • My Starbucks Rewards continues to strengthen
    • iPhone & Android apps
    • Connecting with Wi-Fi
    • Mobile payments
    • eGifting
    • Customizable Frappuccinos
  • Retail development innovation
    • Starbucks juice bar concept
  • Beverage innovation
    • Blonde Roast
    • Evolution Fresh - Beyond Starbucks' doors
  • Food innovation
    • Bistro Box launch
  • Product innovation
    • VIA
    • Seattle's Best
    • K-Cups
  • Graph 9-3: Starbucks Usage Frequency Food Segmentation Analysis
  • 2008-2011 guest traffic frequency analysis: Starbuck's
    • General use on decline; higher-frequency use increases
    • Trouble spots: females, high-income individuals and black consumers
  • Graph 9-4: 2008-2011 Guest Traffic Frequency Analysis: Starbuck's
  • 2011 builds on 2010 turnaround
    • Same-store sales momentum strengthens
    • Traffic and guest ticket rises
  • Table 9-2: Starbucks, Selected Metrics, 2007-11

Dunkin' Donuts

  • Marketing initiatives - Creating a Fan
  • 2009-11 menu strategy
  • Beverages
    • K-cups a hit
  • Table 9-3: Dunkin Donuts: 2011 New Beverage Menu Items & LTOs
  • Food
  • Hitting the right notes with breakfast and snacking
    • Sandwiches, wraps and dollar menu fill out breakfast menu
    • Big 'N Toasty offers premium alternative
    • Incremental health innovation
    • Hearty Snacks
  • Table 9-4: Dunkin Donuts: 2011 New Food Menu Items & LTOs
  • 2008-2011 demographic trend analysis: Dunkin Donuts
    • Strong usage growth across demographics
  • Graph 9-5: 2008-2011 Demographic Usage Frequency Trending: Dunkin' Donuts
  • Sales performance
    • Expansion plans and unit growth
    • Same-store sales improve
  • Table 9-5: Dunkin' Donuts, Selected Metrics, 2007-11
  • Jamba Juice
  • Food and beverage strategy
    • New on the menu
    • Menu-related performance
    • Retail branding strategy
  • New store concept to underpin market expansion strategy
  • Sales performance: Jamba Juice
  • Table 9-6: Jamba, Inc., Selected Metrics, 2007-11

Chapter 10: Restaurant Brand Analysis: QSR Segment

Overview

Burger King

  • Growth strategy
  • Menu initiatives
    • Barbell strategy remains in place
    • Breakfast trends
    • Premium
    • 2011 ushers aggressive value experimentation
  • Table 10-1: Burger King: 2011 New Food Menu Items & LTOs
    • Litigation forces Value Menu transition
    • Incremental ice cream sales bump
    • Fry wars
  • Customer food lifestyle segmentation analysis
    • Application
  • Graph 10-1: Burger King Usage Frequency Analysis, Food Lifestyle Segmentation
  • 2008-2011 guest traffic frequency analysis: Burger King
    • 18-24s eschewing the brand
    • Other trouble spots
  • Graph 10-2: 2008-2011 Guest Traffic Frequency Analysis: Burger King
  • Sales performance: Burger King
    • 2010 brings guest check pressure
    • 2011 closes gap in same-store sales declines
  • Table 10-2: Burger King, Selected Metrics, 2008-11

McDonald's

  • Tiered menu approach
    • Dollar Menu to remain a fixture
    • No trading down to Value Menu
  • Breakfast: a quarter of sales, with unit volumes on the upswing
  • Breakfast strategy: sales growth = guest count growth
  • McNuggets revitalized: Chicken on the upswing
  • Beverage sales are booming
    • Coffee lays the foundation for broadening McCafe platform
  • Other initiatives
    • Reimaging rolls forward
    • Extending hours
    • Increasing capacity with side-by-side drive-thru
  • Food lifestyle segmentation analysis: Convenience and Ease and Weekend Cooks
  • Graph 10-3: McDonald's Usage Frequency Analysis, Food Lifestyle Segmentation
  • 2008-2011 guest traffic frequency analysis: McDonald's
    • Customer usage trends the envy of the QSR segment
    • Trends strong across the board, with one important exception
  • Graph 10-4: 2008-2011 Guest Traffic Frequency Analysis: McDonald's
  • Sales performance: McDonald's
  • Table 10-3: McDonald's, Selected Metrics, 2007-11

Wendy's

  • 2009-2010 strategy: "Real" food at a real value
    • Wendy's reenters breakfast wars with premium QSR differentiation
    • Redhead Roasters
  • Tweaking menu strategy by moving away from extreme affordability
  • Weaning customers off of extreme affordability
    • The W
    • 2011 menu introductions
    • Chicken line extensions on the way
  • "Food Lifestyle" segmentation groups a blend of McDonald's and Burger King
  • Graph 10-5: Wendy's Usage Frequency Analysis, Food Lifestyle Segmentation
  • 2008-2011 guest traffic frequency analysis: Wendy's
    • Demographic trends suggest turnaround
    • Mixed usage trends
  • Graph 10-6: 2008-2011 Guest Traffic Frequency Analysis: Wendy's
  • Sales performance: Wendy's
  • Table 10-4: Wendy's, Selected Metrics, 2009-11

Jack in the Box

  • Regional footprint and boon and a bane
    • Highly concentrated Hispanic areas influence restaurant-leading Hispanic share
  • Table 10-5: Jack in the Box Location & Hispanic Population Analysis
  • Menu strategy
    • Value bundling drives traffic but lowers average check
    • Menu activity
    • New menu boards
  • Sales performance: Jack in the Box
  • Table 10-6: Jack in the Box, Selected Metrics, 2007-11

Domino's Pizza

  • Menu overview
  • Growth strategy
  • Menu innovation: higher quality products timed with well executed promotions
    • Product reformulation pays huge dividends
    • Balancing low-price promotions with higher quality introductions
    • Artisan Pizza promises quality; provides upselling ammunition
    • Carryout promotion
  • Technology innovation
    • iPhone app passes $1 million in weekly sales
    • Call center builds incremental sales
  • Food Lifestyle Segmentation
  • Graph 10-7: Domino's Usage Frequency Food Segmentation Analysis
    • Domino's delivers to Hispanics
  • Table 10-7: Domino's Location & Hispanic Population Analysis
  • 2008-2011 guest traffic frequency analysis: Domino's
  • Graph 10-8: 2008-2011 Guest Traffic Frequency Analysis: Domino's
  • 2008-2011 guest traffic frequency analysis: Pizza Hut
  • Graph 10-9: 2008-2011 Guest Traffic Frequency Analysis: Pizza Hut
  • Sales performance: Domino's
  • Table 10-8: Domino's, Selected Metrics, 2007-11

Chipotle Mexican Grill

  • Competitive positioning: customization; Food with Integrity
    • Marketing that backs Food with Integrity
  • 2010-2011 menu strategy
  • Restaurant expansion: ShopHouse translates Chipotle model to different cuisines
    • Digging deeper into established markets while expanding into new ones
  • Cultivating loyalty
    • Farm Team Loyalty program off the ground
    • Cultivate Chicago guest interaction event
    • Chipotle Cultivate Foundation
  • 2008-2011 guest traffic trend analysis: Chipotle
    • Growth across demographic groups
  • Graph 10-10: 2008-2011 Guest Traffic Trend Analysis:
  • Chipotle Mexican Grill
  • Food Lifestyle Segmentation: Variety on a Budget & True Foodies
  • Graph 10-11: Chipotle Usage Frequency Analysis, Food Lifestyle Segmentation
  • Sale performance: Chipotle
  • Industry-leading same-store sales growth
  • Table 10-9: Chipotle Mexican Grill, Selected Metrics, 2007-11

Panera Bread

  • Menu initiatives
    • Trade up winner
    • Owning the menu category
    • Paninis go from development to the menu
    • Breakfast, salads and cookies performing well
    • What to expect in 2012
    • Catering
  • Loyalty program at 8 million members and counting
  • Panera Bread Food Lifestyle Segmentation
    • Variety on a Budget and True Foodies turn the doors with greatest frequency
  • Graph 10-13: Panera Bread Usage Frequency Analysis, Food Lifestyle Segmentation
  • 2008-2011 guest traffic frequency analysis: Panera Bread
  • Graph 10-14: 2008-2011 Guest Traffic Frequency Analysis: Panera Bread
  • Sales performance: Panera Bread
  • Table 10-10: Panera Bread, Selected Metrics, 2007-11
  • Qdoba Mexican Grill
  • Aggressive expansion underway
  • Menu strategy
  • Sales performance: Qdoba
  • Table 10-15: Qdoba, Selected Metrics, 2007-11

Chapter 11: Restaurant Brand Analysis: Family Segment

Overview

  • Family restaurant segment performance summary
  • Graph 11-1: Family Restaurant Annual Same-Store Sales Index:
  • 2005-10, 2006-10, 2007-10 & 2008-2010
    • Negative momentum
  • Graph 11-2: Family Restaurant Quarterly Same-Store Sales Index:
  • 2008-11, 2009-11 & 2010-11

Bob Evans

  • Growth strategy
  • Menu trends
    • New on the menu
    • Daypart analysis
  • 2008-2011 guest traffic frequency analysis: Bob Evan's
    • Broadly based guest traffic losses
  • Graph 11-3: 2008-2011 Guest Traffic Frequency Analysis: Bob Evan's
  • Sales performance: Bob Evan's
    • Sequential same-store sales improvement, but still negative
  • Table 11-1: Bob Evans, Selected Metrics, 2009-11
  • Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc.
  • Restaurant operations
  • Retail operations
  • Marketing and menu strategy
    • Menu changes geared toward maintaining relevance and reach
    • Supplementing menu with more healthful offerings
    • Kids LiveWell options
    • Luring the budget-conscious with LTOs
  • Meet Reformed Traditional food segmentation group halfway on health?
  • Graph 11-4: Cracker Barrel Usage Frequency Analysis, Food Lifestyle Segmentation
  • 2008-2011 guest traffic frequency analysis: Cracker Barrel
    • Penetration rates falling; HH income usage trends shifting downward
  • Graph 11-5: 2008-2011 Guest Traffic Frequency Analysis: Cracker Barrel
    • Fiscal 2012 outlook
  • Table 11-2: Cracker Barrel, Selected Metrics, 2009-11
  • Denny's
  • Recession challenges: region, lower-middle income demographic and late-night
  • Marketing strategy
  • America's diner is always open
    • But other rollouts round out the menu
    • 2010 shift to everyday value supported with LTO entrees
  • Everyday value provides the foundation
    • $2 $4 $6 $8, who do we appreciate?
    • 2-4-6-8 Value Menu mix hovering around 20%
  • LTOs provide the balance
    • Tour of America
    • Let's Get Cheesy
    • Baconalia
    • Fit Fare
  • Graph 11-6: Denny's Usage Frequency Analysis, Food Lifestyle Segmentation
  • 2008-2011 guest traffic frequency analysis: Denny's
    • Mixed usage trends: youth a trouble spot
  • Graph 11-7: 2008-2011 Guest Traffic Frequency Analysis: Denny's
  • The Hispanic connection
    • Denny's geographic analysis
  • Table 11-3: Denny's Location & Hispanic Population Analysis
  • A non-traditional expansion strategy
  • Travel centers
    • Universities
    • Fast casual
    • Smaller footprint models on the horizon?
  • Sales performance: Light at the end of the tunnel
  • Table 11-8: Denny's, Selected Metrics, 2007-11

Chapter 12: Restaurant Brand Analysis: Casual Segment

Overview

Chili's Bar & Grill

  • Company growth strategy
    • Franchising/joint ventures
  • Restaurant operations
    • On the menu
    • Entree pricing
  • Back-of-the-house: "Kitchen of the Future"
  • Front-of-the-house: Reimaging
  • Menu innovation
    • Everyday value promotion
    • Experimenting with lunch: from Bottomless Express to Lunch Break
    • A fast casual response
  • Going forward
    • Usage trending downward
    • Trouble spots: younger consumers and higher HH income consumers
  • Graph 12-1: 2008-2011 Guest Traffic Frequency Analysis: Chili's
    • Menu pricing analysis
  • Table 12-1: Chili's, Menu Pricing Analysis, 2007-11
  • Sales performance: Chili's
    • Q3 2011 and going forward
  • Table 12-2: Chili's, Selected Metrics, 2008-11
  • Olive Garden
  • Menu strategy
    • First: emphasize promotions
    • Then, go beyond promotions
    • Then, strengthen everyday affordability to reach lower-income households
    • And pick up the pace
  • 2008-2011 guest traffic frequency analysis: Olive Garden
  • Graph 12-2: 2008-2011 Guest Traffic Frequency Analysis: Olive Garden
    • Sales performance: Olive Garden
  • Table 12-3: Chili's, Selected Metrics, 2008-11

Chapter 13: Restaurant Brand Analysis: Fine Dining

Overview

Morton's The Steakhouse

  • Pending sale
    • Dependence on business spending
    • Beef, beef and beef
    • Rounding out the menu
    • Wine sales holding steady
    • Private dining boardroom bookings on the rise
    • Bar 12-21 boosting bar sales
    • Steak & Seafood for Two promotion extended
  • Sales performance: Morton's
    • On a price-raising tear
  • Table 13-1: Morton's Restaurant Group, Selected Metrics, 2008-11

Ruth's Chris Steak House

  • On the menu
  • Demographic
  • Revenue building strategies and menu moves
    • Promotional activity
    • Gift cards
    • Private dining
  • Sales performance
  • Table 13-2: Ruth's Chris Steak House, Selected Metrics, 2007-11

Appendix

Appendix on food lifestyle segmentation charts

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