BNPL：米国市場におけるPOS分割ローンと国際的な見通し（第3版）

当レポートでは、米国のBNPL業界について調査分析し、既存企業と新規参入企業が直面する機会と課題の詳細な分析や、主なビジネスモデルの実現可能性の検証などを行っています。

目次

エグゼクティブサマリー

市場の成長機会

• 市場参入企業向け戦略的考慮事項
• 堅牢で摩擦のないデジタル戦略が不可欠
• BNPLの成長を加速

米国の業界の背景

• BNPL分割金融前の消費者金融市場
• BNPL金融を生み出した機会
• BNPL金融の裏話

米国のBNPL融資

• 業界の成長予測
• 主な成長促進要因
• 主な競合の課題

米国のBNPLの顧客

• 利便性がBNPLの利用を促進
• 調査結果

米国のBNPL融資業者

• 業者に対する大きな利益

米国の力学：従来の企業

• 米国の銀行とカード発行企業がBNPL金融市場に参入
• カードネットワークがBNPL金融市場に参入

米国の力学：フィンテック

• フィンテックが米国のBNPL金融のイノベーションを促進
• Klarna
• PayPal Credit
• Affirm
• Afterpay
• Amazon
• Sezzle
• Zip

国際市場の力学

• 世界のスナップショット
• 西欧
• ブラジル
• メキシコ
• 中国

The adaptability and resilience of the Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) industry has confounded naysayers on Wall Street, in traditional banks and finance companies, and within the credit card segment.

In 2020, many assumed this still-nascent industry built on short-term, smaller-dollar installment loans would be unable to survive the economic turmoil of the pandemic. The thinking was that BNPL lenders were too green to predict consumer repayment patterns or that they couldn't partner with enough retailers at a time the retail industry was chaotic.

They doubted BNPL borrowers would repay their installment loans in 2021 as consumers dealt with rising rents (up 19.3% in December 2021 YoY) and declining real wages (down 2.4% in 2021). In 2022, the naysayers had a lot to point at - principally, a confluence of geopolitical instability, inflation, supply chain glitches, shortages in global food supplies and rising energy prices. In each year, the BNPL industry has continued to grow and to manage delinquencies and charge-offs.

Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) installment loans were designed as no-interest or low-interest options for consumers to more easily budget for payments meted out over six weeks, with the first payment made at time of purchase and subsequent equal payments made fortnightly.

As consumers have demonstrated an appetite for installment loans for a wide-range of products (home repairs to groceries), for a broad range of price points ($50 to $40,000) and for a variety of pricing models (no interest or with interest or with fees collected with each payment), BNPL providers had demonstrated a willingness to innovate and to partner with traditional financial services companies to create product line extensions, rewards programs and to extend offers to less credit-worthy consumers.

The ever wider adoption of BNPL has poached billions of dollars from credit card issuers as consumers have chosen to finance purchases with zero/lower interest rate, fixed-term installment loans offered by fintechs rather than risk incurring a revolving balance on their their high-interest credit cards. Despite some repayments being made by credit card, which earns the credit card issuer interchange income, 89% of loan repayments were made on a debit card in 2021, virtually unchanged from each of the previous two years.

The Buy Now, Pay Later: Point of Sale Installment Loans in the U.S. Market and International Perspectives, 3rd Edition market research report presents a deeply detailed analysis of the opportunities and challenges confronting extant and new participants in the BNPL sector. It examines macro and micro drivers of transaction volume, repayment rates and government interventions that may seriously damage this still young category.

Additionally, the report reviews current U.S. consumer borrowing behaviors; strategic positioning initiatives by fintechs (financial technology companies) as well as traditional consumer credit industry participants, including banks, credit card issuers and the credit/debit card networks.

The report also analyzes each of the principal business models in the industry, examining the potential viability of each model as more competitors emerge and bring their own marketing messages, merchant partnerships and revenue models.

The report provides U.S. BNPL market size estimates for 2016 vs. 2021, as well as year-by-year forecasts through 2026. These projections reflect the swift and durable changes in consumer payment preferences during and post pandemic, the efforts by global governments to regulate the BNPL industry as well as macro-U.S. economic and more granular household spending and demographic detail. While focusing on the BNPL installment loan industry in the U.S., this report also covers the wider context on BNPL financing in Asian, European, and Latin American countries.

Table of Content

Executive Summary

Scope & Methodology

Scope of Report

Report Methodology

Executive Summary

Status of Traditional Consumer Payments

Table Revolving Credit, Credit Outstanding, 2018 - 2022 (in $billions and % change)

Status of BNPL in the Payments Landscape

BNPL Was Made for a Global Pandemic and its Coattails

Credit Card Balances Fell with Shutdown…and Then Consumers Paid off Their Balances

Debit Card Use Increased During the Pandemic

Table U.S. Credit and Debit Card Payment Volume for Mastercard, Visa and American Express, Quarterly, 2021 - 2022 (in $billions)

• Robust 27.6% CAGR Projected for BNPL 2021 -

Table U.S. BNPL Market: Estimated CAGR, 2016 - 2021 vs. 2021 - 2026 (percent)

Table U.S. BNPL Market, 2021 - 2026 (in $billions and percent growth)

Trends and Opportunities

Banks

Merchants

Fintechs

Robust and Frictionless Digital Strategy Is Essential

Diverse Strategies Based on Credit Segmentation

Market Growth Opportunities

Strategic Considerations for Market Participants

Banks

Merchants

Fintechs

Robust and Frictionless Digital Strategy Is Essential

Consumers Research and Shop Via Mobile, Even if They Buy In-Store

Table Mobile is the Lead Channel for E-commerce in the U.S., 2019 - 2022 (percent)

Emphasis on Responsible Lending

Diverse Strategies Based on Credit Segmentation

Accelerating BNPL Growth

The Morphing of Installment Loans

U.S. Industry Context

The Consumer Credit Market Before BNPL Installment Finance

Finance Companies and Credit Card/Store Card Lines of Credit

The Opportunity That Created BNPL Finance

BNPL Loans Turned Small Dollar Consumer Finance on Its Head

Consumers' Receptive to New Ways to Buying and Paying for Purchases

The Backstory of BNPL

E-Commerce Growth Fueled Merchant Need for Differentiation and Competitive Advantages

BNPL Financing Upstreamed in E-Commerce to Larger Market

Table Merchant Categories of BNPL Spend, 2020 - 2022 ($ in billion and percent total)

BNPL Financing in the U.S.

Forecasting Industry Growth

2022: A Year of Industry Partnerships and Product Line Extensions.

Robust 7.8% CAGR Projected for 2021-2025

Table U.S. Point of Sales Installment Financing Market: Estimated, 2016 - 2020 vs. 2021 - 2025 (% CAGR)

Table U.S. BNPL Installment Financing Market, 2021 - 2025 (in $billions GMV and percent growth)

Robust 27.6% CAGR Projected for BNPL 2021-2026

Table U.S. BNPL Market: Estimated 2016 - 2021 vs. 2021 - 2026 (% CAGR)

Table U.S. BNPL Market, 2021 - 2026 (in $billions and percent growth)

Summary of Rationale for Longer-Term 2020-2025 Projections

Table E-commerce as a Percentage of Retail Sales, 2019-2022 (in $millions)

Key Growth Drivers

New Market Niches, New Player Strategies All Contribute to Growth

Consumers Receptive to BNPL Loans

Fintechs Leverage Consumer Payments to Build Customer Relationships

New Strategies from Traditional Financial Institutions

Key Competitive Challenges

Challenges Dictated by Player's Role in Payment Transaction

Payment Friction

Regulatory Oversight: BNPL Providers' Business Models Invite Scrutiny

Competition Pressures Prices

Uses of BNPL Installment Moved from Smaller Ticket to Larger Ticket Items

Consumers Avoid New Credit Card Accounts

The U.S. BNPL Customer

Convenience Drives Use of BNPL

Table Top Reasons for Using BNPL Loans, 2021 (percent)

BNPL Use by Level of Education, Income and Race/Ethnicity

Table Family Income, Education and Race/Ethnicity of BNPL Users and Users Paying Late,

Younger Adults are Challenged to Manage and Pay Bills

Longitudinal Survey Results

Table Age of BNPL Users, 2020 - 2022 (percent)

Overall Usage and Key Cohorts

PayPal Credit Is Most Used BNPL Loan Provider

Recentness and Frequency of BNPL Loan Usage

BNPL Loans by Amount Borrowed

Platforms for Use of BNPL Services

Characteristics of BNPL Loan Usage

Table Customer Service Patterns for BNPL, August-September 2021 (percent of BNPL customers)

Table Customer Service Patterns for BNPL, August-September 2021 (percent of BNPL customers)

The U.S. BNPL Financing Merchant

Significant Benefits to Merchants

Consumers Demanding Product

Airlines

Fintechs

Malls - Ideal Targets for BNPL Providers

U.S. Dynamics: Traditional Players

U.S. Banks and Card Issuers Join BNPL Finance Market

U.S. Banks

Bank: Citizens Financial

Consortium: GreenSky Financial

Card Issuer: Citibank

Bank: Goldman Sachs

Card Issuer: JPMorgan Chase

Finance Company: Synchrony Financial

Card Networks Enter BNPL Finance Market

Industry Context

Visa

American Express

Mastercard

U.S. Dynamics: Fintechs

Fintechs Drive Innovation in U.S. BNPL Finance

Fintechs Targeting Consumers With/Without Credit

Table Fintech Volumes, Lead Products, and Repayment Methods 2022 (volumes in $billions)

Klarna

Largest BNPL Provider with Valuation of $45.6 Billion

Klarna's U.S. Focus

Klarna Vibe Loyalty Program

Klarna Offers Consumers Three BNPL Financing Products

PayPal Credit

PayPal BNPL Offers Show Strong Growth

Marketing to Both Merchants and PayPal Users

Affirm

Since 2016, Affirm Has Processed $30 Billion for Merchants

Table Affirm's Key Metrics, YoY, 2021-2022

How Affirm Makes Money

Walmart Offers Affirm BNPL Loans at its 4,000 U.S. Stores

Affirm, Shopify and Shop Pay

Amazon, Peloton and Affirm

Affirm at a Strategic Crossroads on Achieving Profitability

Apple Pay

Apple Pay Later

Afterpay

Afterpay Offers a Single, No-Interest Product

Virtual Card Makes Afterpay an In-Store Payment Option of Largest Retailers

• Table What Feeling is Associated with the Ability to Make Payments Over Time? Survey of Italian Online Shoppers, March

Impressive Growth Metrics

Table Afterpay, Global Growth, 2019-2021 (US$)

Acquisition by Square for $29 Billion

Amazon

Amazon's BNPL Options

Sezzle

• Sezzle Built Key Partnerships in 2020 and

Active Customer and Merchant Totals Continue to Climb, Merchant Sales Declined

Profitability of Growth is Increasing

Sezzle's 2022 Product Introductions

Building a Stable of Partners to Finance Sezzle's Large Ticket Purchases

Zip

• Table Key Metrics for Zip Co. 2020 -

International Market Dynamics

Global Snapshot

Overview

European Union

Latin America

China

Western Europe

Consumer Credit and Payment Preferences

BNPL is Growing Twice as Fast as Credit Cards

BNPL Growth Is Fueled by Consumers' Desire for Payment Choices

Having Payment Options Informs U.K. Consumers' Choice of Merchants

Europeans Use Wide Range of E-Commerce Payment Options

Finally, Germany Moving to Credit Cards and BNPL Finance

Benefits from E-Commerce and Highly Developed BNPL Tech

Brazil

Largest Latin American Marketplace

Robust Installment Loan Ecosystem

Consumer Financial Services Growing

More Internet and More Smartphones

Previously, Consumers Left Stack of Postdated Checks as Installments

Brazilian Retailers Advertised Installment Price, Not Full Retail Price

Installments Used in 80% of Brazilian E-Commerce Purchases

In Other Markets, Fintechs Collect Shopper Payments

Biggest E-commerce Categories Are Electronics and Travel

Daunting Import Tariffs Act to Depress E-Commerce Volumes

Mexico

• Mexico's E-Commerce Value More than Doubled Between 2014 and

Debit Cards Are Not Authorized for Digital Commerce

Country's Largest C-Store Lets Consumers Buy Online and Pay Cash In-Store

Market Solution Still Needed for Paying in Cash Installment for E-Commerce

China

China's High Level of M-commerce

Tighter Regulations Tamper Chinese BNPL

China, and the Countries It Invests In, Are Most Advanced BNPL Finance Markets

Tencent

Alibaba

Leveraging Chinese Tourists to Enter New Markets

Trade Wars Are Thwarting Plans