This report reviews a range of statistics and trends in the Australian fixed broadband market, including market share for major fixed broadband providers, market share by major broadband category (DSL, Cable, Fibre, Satellite and Fixed wireless) and market forecasts to 2021. The report examines how there is a shift towards FTTH, FTTN and FTTP networks as Australia's nbn is progressively rolled out and how the market will move away from DSL. It will show how HFC infrastructure will continue to be provided within the nbn's multi-technology mix.
The report also incorporates data from government departments including the Australian Bureau of Statistics and the ACMA as well as key statistics for the rollout of Australia's NBN.
The report also analyses the drivers behind broadband adoption within the Australian residential and business sectors, and notes the shift to a market more dominated by mobile devices.
In addition, the report analyses the situation with respect to greenfield fibre deployments. It provides an overview of fibre operators, as well as statistics on the FTTP market and a review of developments related to DSL and HFC infrastructure as well as satellite broadband.
Researchers:- Phil Harpur, Paul Budde
Australian National Broadband Network rollout finally gains momentum
Within the market there is a dynamic shift among customers to fibre networks, as this infrastructure is being built out by nbn (NBN Co), the company responsible for the national broadband deployment. Australia's broadband sector is making improved progress in its migration to a multi-technology the NBN.
Growth in the overall number of broadband subscribers is expected to continue to slow further into 2018, with most growth coming from the mobile wireless and fibre broadband markets, due to increased uptake by the NBN in these two segments.
The DSL sector is expected to shrink as customers are migrated to the NBN in areas where services become available, while subscribers on HFC infrastructure will continue to be provided by existing cable within the NBN's multi-technology mix. Internationally, the adoption of broadband ranks Australia below many other developed countries, however it has seen a moderate increase over the past two years due to the continued rollout of the NBN.
Consolidation within the broadband market, with some key acquisitions having taken place among fixed broadband service providers, will provide greater reach and scale for operators in coming years.
By 2016 FTTH still dominated the NBN statistics with 75% of all NBN subscribers using this technology. However, this will change rapidly over coming years as the FTTH roll out comes to an end (with the exception of greenfield connections). The nbn announced in December 2016 it was ready to deploy its "multi-technology mix" (MTM), offering a mix of FTTH, FTTB and FTTN in new housing estates. By 2017 FTTN and HFC began to dominate the NBN scene and by 2017 it was closer to 50% of all activated services that were FTTH / FTTN.
The nbn revealed plans to begin deploying "skinny fibre" (thinner fibre cables) in new housing estates from 2017/2018.
The deployment of FTTH in greenfield estates is a fast-growing industry, supported by an updated regulatory regime and pricing models. Recent legislation provides the framework for all new major housing sites to be supplied with FTTH infrastructure, or to be made ready (pit and pipe) for such deployment. The nbn has in place measures aimed at improving competition, minimising costs, and providing a level playing field for participants in this sector. Controversially, developers and home owners will be charged for the infrastructure costs in new housing developments.
The current NBN plan provides a multi-technology mix rather than be predominantly FTTH. Under the new scheme, FTTH will connect 20% of premises by 2020, while a further 38% will be served by FTTN - using the VDSL technology - and another 34% of will receive services via existing HFC networks. Using this approach, the government anticipated that 91% of premises connected to fixed-line infrastructure would receive 50Mb/s by 2020. The capital cost was put at $29.5 billion (US$27.4 billion).
The roll out of FTTN didn't start until late 2015 and by April 2017 the service has 676,000 subscribers. However, this number is set to increase rapidly over coming years.
In 2016 nbn announced it would entirely abandon its plan to use the Optus Hybrid Fibre Coaxial (HFC) network to deliver high-speed broadband. It is now confident it can deploy the Fibre-to-the-curb (FTTC), technology in areas where it makes better sense from a customer experience, deployment efficiency and cost perspective, rather than upgrading the old network. The nbn will however still be using Telstra's more extensive HFC network as planned and is still aiming for an HFC footprint of between 2.5 and 3.2 million premises by 2020.
The HFC networks of Telstra and Optus's are being deployed as part of the NBN, so reducing the overall cost of the project's rollout. However, the nbn's Corporate Plan for 2017 envisages greater use of FTTC in HFC areas, given the mounting cost of connecting premises with HFC.
In international terms, the capabilities of HFC in Australia remain comparatively low, and there is considerable scope for improvement. In Europe, HFC networks commonly deliver data at up to 360MB/s, while some networks (such as Vodafone's in Germany) deliver data at 400Mb/s.
The nbn is expected to operate services based on the DOCSIS3.1 during 2018, capable of delivering data at 1Gb/s. It is also actively looking at other cable networking advances such as full-duplex DOCSIS technology, which is capable of 10Gbps symmetrical speeds.
The nbn has confirmed FTTC, would be deployed to a potential footprint of up to 700,000 premises across the country. The expanded FTTC footprint fills the void left by the nbn's decision not to use the Optus HFC cable assets, although it will still be using Telstra's more extensive HFC network as planned. The nbn is however still aiming for an HFC footprint of between 2.5 and 3.2 million premises by 2020, using the Telstra assets.
- Growth will come from the mobile wireless and fibre broadband markets.
- DSL sector is expected to shrink.
- HFC infrastructure will continue to be provided within the nbn's multi-technology mix.
- Consolidation within the broadband market will provide greater reach and scale.
- nbn will begin deploying "skinny fibre" in new housing estates from 2017/2018.
- The deployment of Fibre-to-the-Premises in greenfield estates is a fast-growing industry.
- nbn will operate services based on the DOCSIS3.1 during 2018, capable of 1Gb/s.
- Fibre-to-the-curb (FTTC) will deployed to a potential footprint of up to 700,000 premises.
Key companies mentioned in this report:
Optus, Telstra, nbn (NBN Co), iiNet, TPG, TransACT, M2, iiNet, Optus, Primus, LBNCo, OPENetworks, OptiComm, RedTrain, Pivit, Foxtel.
Table of Contents
1. Market overview and statistics
- 1.1 Market Analysis and developments
- 1.1.1 Market Analysis
- 1.1.2 Regional improvements
- 1.1.3 Data limiting
- 1.2 Fixed Broadband - Subscriber Statistics
- 1.2.1 Total Market statistics
- 1.2.2 Market share statistics by platform
- 1.2.3 Market share statistics by Provider
- 1.2.4 Access revenues
- 1.3 Fixed Broadband market consolidation
- 1.4 Forecasts - Fixed broadband subscribers - 2016; 2018; 2021
- 1.5 Statistics
- 1.5.1 Broadband Subscribers by Business, Government and Household
- 1.5.2 Broadband speeds
- 1.5.3 Broadband traffic
- 1.6 Australian Business Broadband Market
2. National Broadband Network
- 2.1 Brief overview of the NBN
- 2.2 NBN statistics
- 2.3 NBN making progress but dark clouds ahead
- 2.4 Corporate Plans
- 2.4.1 NBN Corporate Plan 2017
- 2.4.2 NBN Corporate Plan for the period 2014 - 2018
3. Global trends
- 3.1 Google Fiber and the future of FttH
- 3.2 Broadband subscribers and penetration
- 3.3 Broadband access technologies
- 3.4 Broadband speeds
4. DSL market
- 4.1 DSL infrastructure
- 4.1.1 Overview
- 4.1.2 DSLAM infrastructure
- 4.1.3 FttN and VDSL
5. FttH, FttB markets
- 5.1 Introduction
- 5.2 NBN Statistics - FttH
- 5.2.1 FttH statistical overview 2014-2018
- 5.2.2 Migration of business services
- 5.3 Recent Developments
- 5.3.1 Greenfields ready for deployment of MTM
- 5.3.2 Skinny Fibre to be deployed in New Housing Estates from 2017
- 5.4 Fibre-to-the-Basement (FttB)
- 5.4.1 Multi dwelling units
- 5.4.2 TPG
- 5.4.3 Telstra tests FTTB product
- 5.5 Other developments
- 5.5.1 NBN Co outlines policies for fibre-on-demand
- 5.5.2 Cost of a NBN brownfields FTTH connection
- 5.6 Fibre wholesale from Telstra
- 5.7 FTTH Major Players
- 5.7.1 LBNCo
- 5.7.2 OPENetworks
- 5.7.3 OptiComm
- 5.7.4 Pivit
- 5.7.5 RedTrain
- 5.7.6 Other smaller providers
6. FttH Greenfield market
- 6.1 Overview
- 6.2 Greenfield Policies
- 6.2.1 New greenfield policy comes into play
- 6.3 Greenfield rollout developments of NBN
- 6.3.1 Sydney's Doonside first to connect to the NBN
- 6.3.2 Nationwide roll out
- 6.3.3 Greenfield construction contracts
- 6.3.4 Greenfields extension contract
7. FttN market
- 7.1 FttH, FttN statistics
- 7.1.1 FttN overview 2014-2018
- 7.2 Market analysis
- 7.2.1 High-speed broadband take-up is increasing
- 7.2.2 Video explosion pushing fixed broadband
- 7.3 Fibre-to-the-Distribution-Point / Fibre-to-the Curb
- 7.3.1 Overview
- 7.3.2 Analysis
- 7.4 Telstra aims at 1 million NBN market share
- 7.5 G.Fast and XG.Fast
- 7.5.1 G.Fast Overview
- 7.5.2 Analysis - NBN's 'not.so.Fast' G.Fast
- 7.5.3 XG.FAST - still years away
- 7.6 The VDSL Market
- 7.6.1 VDSL developments
- 7.6.2 VDSL vectoring
8. HFC market
- 8.1 Market overview
- 8.2 Technology
- 8.2.1 Hybrid Fibre Coax (HFC)
- 8.2.2 The DOCSIS standard
- 8.2.3 The next development for DOCSIS
- 8.2.4 Can Cable Networks Deliver a Gigabit?
- 8.2.5 NBN Indicates Upgrade path for HFC
- 8.2.6 HFC DOCSIS vs. fibre
- 8.3 NBN - HFC Program
- 8.3.1 Statistical overview
- 8.3.2 Overall plan
- 8.3.3 FttN and FTTB as infills for HFC
- 8.3.4 FTTdp to be used instead of Optus HFC network
- 8.3.5 Arris appointed supplier of the network
- 8.3.6 Roll out plan
- 8.3.7 HFC pilot in Queensland
- 8.4 Market statistics and estimates
- 8.5 Telstra
- 8.5.1 Background information
- 8.5.2 Network upgrades
- 8.6 Optus
- 8.7 IiNet/TransACT
- 8.8 BES/e-wire
- 8.9 HFC network Darwin
- 8.10 Industry analysis
- 8.10.1 DOCSIS3.0 -v- DOCSIS3.1
- 8.10.2 Superfast Broadband Access Service (SBAS)
- Table 1 - Total Broadband Subscribers - Fixed vs Wireless - 2011 - 2017
- Table 2 - Total Broadband Subscribers - Fixed vs Wireless, annual growth - 2012 - 2017
- Table 3 - Total Broadband Subscribers - Fixed vs Wireless, market share - 2011 - 2017
- Table 4 - Historical - Total broadband subscribers and annual change - 2000 - 2011
- Table 5 - Total Broadband Subscribers by Access Type - 2011 - 2016
- Table 6 - Total Broadband Subscribers by Access Type, annual growth - 2012 - 2016
- Table 7 - Total Broadband Subscribers by Access Type, market share - 2011 - 2016
- Table 8 - Fixed Broadband Subscribers - DSL, Cable, Fibre - 2011 - 2016
- Table 9 - Historical - Broadband market share by technology - 2008 - 2015
- Table 10 - Fixed Broadband retail subscribers (thousands) by major provider - 2010 - 2016
- Table 11 - Fixed Broadband retail subscriber annual growth by major provider - 2011 - 2016
- Table 12 - Fixed Broadband retail subscribers market share by major provider - 2014 - 2016
- Table 13 - Historic - Total business and residential broadband subscribers
- Table 14 - Telstra broadband subscribers by sector - 2007 - 2016
- Table 15 - Historic - Broadband revenues by major provider - 2005 - 2015
- Table 16 - Historic - Annual change in broadband access revenues by major provider - 2006 - 2015
- Table 17 - Historic - Market share of broadband access revenues by major provider - 2005 - 2015
- Table 18 - Number of ISPs by size in the Australian market - 2008 - 2017
- Table 19 - Australia - fixed broadband subscriber forecast- 2016; 2018; 2021
- Table 20 - Historic - Business, government and household broadband internet subscribers - 2009 - 2014
- Table 21 - Subscribers' average broadband speed - 2010 - 2017
- Table 22 - Average SVoD streaming speed by broadband service provider (Mb/s) - 2015 - 2017
- Table 23 - Internet subscribers by download speed and proportion of subscribers - Dec 2016
- Table 24 - Historic - Proportion of internet subscribers by download speed - 2009 - 2015
- Table 25 - Historic - Internet subscribers by download speed - 2008 - 2015
- Table 26 - Terabytes of data downloaded by access technology - 2008 - 2016
- Table 27 - Annual change in data downloaded by access technology - 2011 - 2016
- Table 28 - Average data downloaded per subscriber (fixed-line and mobile) - 2013 - 2016
- Table 29 - NBN premises activated- 2014 - 2017
- Table 30 - NBN premises activated by platform - 2016 - 2017
- Table 31 - NBN premises serviceable by platform - 2016 - 2017
- Table 32 - NBN premises activated by platform - 2014 - 2016
- Table 33 - NBN premises serviceable by platform - 2014 - 2016
- Table 34 - NBN fibre premises serviceable by type - 2012 - 2016
- Table 35 - NBN fibre premises activated - 2011 - 2016
- Table 36 - Premises Ready for Service 2014-2018
- Table 37 - Premises Activated 2014 - 2018
- Table 38 - Technology mix - 2020
- Table 39 - Weighted average cost per premise by technology
- Table 40 - Key financial statistics NBN company
- Table 41 - NBN 2018 target by state - Estimated number of premises under construction by September 2018
- Table 42 - Global - fixed broadband subscribers and annual change - 2005 - 2017
- Table 43 - Regional - average fixed broadband prices - 2015
- Table 44 - Regional - market shares of fixed broadband subscribers - 2016
- Table 45 - Regional - historical market shares of fixed broadband subscribers - 2014; 2015
- Table 46 - Top 10 countries by fixed broadband subscribers and global market share - 2016
- Table 47 - Global - broadband market share by access technology - 2013; 2016
- Table 48 - Global - average broadband speed by mb/s - 2012 - Q1 2017
- Table 49 - Top 10 countries by average broadband connection speeds - Q1 2017
- Table 50 - Top 10 countries by high broadband connectivity of above 10Mb/s - 2015; 2016
- Table 51 - Top 10 countries by high broadband connectivity of above 15Mb/s - 2016
- Table 52 - DSL broadband subscribers - 2008 - 2017
- Table 53 - Historic - DSL subscribers and availability by state/territory - 2013
- Table 54 - Historic - DSL premises affected by distance from exchange - 2013
- Table 55 - Historic - Number of DSLAMs by major providers
- Table 56 - Historic - Total number of DSLAMs
- Table 57 - Number of ADSL and ADSL2+-enabled exchanges - 2013 - 2016
- Table 58 - Fibre Access Broadband (FAB) exchanges - November 2015
- Table 59 - NBN revenue statistics FttH - FY 2013-2016
- Table 60 - FttH subscriber statistics - 2013-2017
- Table 61 - Annual FttH capital expenditure - FY 2013-2016
- Table 62 - FttH Cost per premise - FY 2014-2016
- Table 63 - FttH Greenfields rollouts 2014 - 2016
- Table 64 - FttH Premises Ready for Service 2014-2018
- Table 65 - FttH Premises Activated 2014 - 2018
- Table 66 - FttH Weighted average cost per premise by technology (rounded to the nearest 100)
- Table 67 - FttP Greenfields Rollouts 2014 - 2016
- Table 68 - Total internet subscribers - 2011 - 2015
- Table 69 - NBN cost per Premises - 2014 - 2015
- Table 70 - FttN expenditure - 2014 - 2016
- Table 71 - NBN uptake rates FttH and FttN
- Table 72 - FttN Roll Out 2014-2018 (cumulative ('000)
- Table 73 - FttN - Weighted average cost per premise by technology (rounded nearest $100)
- Table 74 - HFC Roll out plan 2016-2018
- Table 75 - HFC Current Roll out status - 2016 - 2017
- Table 76 - Weighted average cost per HFC premise (rounded nearest $100)
- Table 77 - NBN capital expenditure - FY2015-2016
- Table 78 - HFC cable broadband subscribers - 2012 - 2017
- Table 79 - Cable broadband subscribers by major operator and annual change - 2002 - 2017
- Table 80 - Optus on-net broadband subscribers - 2009 - 2017
- Chart 1 - Total Broadband Subscribers - Fixed vs Wireless - 2011 - 2017
- Chart 2 - Fixed Broadband Subscribers -DSL, Cable, Fibre - 2011 - 2016
- Exhibit 1 - The difference between FttH and FttP
- Exhibit 2 - Very-high-bit-rate digital subscriber line (VDSL)