表紙:HTS衛星コンステレーション - 重要な評価:第3版
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HTS衛星コンステレーション - 重要な評価:第3版

HTS Satellite Constellations: A Critical Assessment, 3rd Edition

出版日: | 発行: Northern Sky Research, LLC | ページ情報: 英文 | 納期: 即日から翌営業日

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HTS衛星コンステレーション - 重要な評価:第3版
出版日: 2020年09月22日
発行: Northern Sky Research, LLC
ページ情報: 英文
納期: 即日から翌営業日
  • 全表示
  • 概要
  • 目次
概要

当レポートでは、MEO・LEO軌道のSATCOMの実現可能性について調査分析し、必要な需要・収益セグメントのほか、セグメント内のリスクについて、体系的な情報を提供しています。

目次

エグゼクティブサマリー

第1章 トップ5の現状

  • 構造
  • 発売スケジュール
  • 供給予測(実際のスループット)
  • 製造/発売計画とコスト
  • 予想される地上システムのコスト
  • 総合設備投資
  • 資金調達状況
  • 現状、アセット、パイロット
  • 周波数調整状況
  • その他のコンステレーションと期待
  • 主な利点と問題

第2章 非静止軌道 (Non-GEO) の理解

  • LEO(・MEO)の理由、GEO-HTS
  • GEO vs. Non-GEO
  • LEO(・MEO)を可能にする要因
  • ユーザー端末と課題
  • 重要な技術

第3章 ビジネスモデル

  • 前提条件
  • 企業あたりの推奨ビジネスセグメント
  • ホールセール vs. サービスの選択、強み
  • SpaceX
  • OneWeb
  • mPower
  • Amazon
  • Telesat

第4章 ビジネスの実現可能性

  • 調査手法:目標ベース分析と財務モデリング
  • 目標ベース分析:対象メトリクス
  • 現在のSatcomの収益と各企業の目標IRR
  • ビジネスケースとワイルドカード
  • GEOの競合
  • 結論:リスクのベンチマーキング
目次

NSR's latest ‘HTS Satellite Constellations: A Critical Assessment, 3rd Edition’ report deep dives into satcom feasibility for MEO and LEO orbits within a competitive scope of 5 players who lead the race to launch and showcase business viability. The report is a must-have for any player evaluating the LEO/MEO constellations market: end users, service providers, financers, suppliers, competitors and governments across all regions.

The report bases the analysis on goal-based IRR's for each constellation to deduce necessary demand and revenue segments in order to close the business case. The report also depicts risk within each segment to objectively analyze each constellation on the basis of Architectural, CAPEX, and Competitive Strengths.

Given a range of technical and business complexities, LEO and MEO Constellations are inherently difficult to assess. NSR analyzes over 40 parameters to arrive at detailed business models and establishes under which conditions each constellation can succeed. As LEO/MEO constellations hold the promise of expanding the Total Addressable Market amidst a turbulent time for satcom, several challenges still exist in making this reality happen. NSR explicitly states these challenges in this report and the path to profitability. Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Cumulative Revenues, and Net Cash at End-of-Life are target metrics, from which NSR also derives Lifetime Avg. Fill Rates and Weighted Avg. Wholesale Pricing to give the user a clear perspective of fleet use and price elasticity within the system.

The report answers critical questions regarding the Satellite Constellations market:

  • Will all 5 major players SpaceX, OneWeb, mPower, Amazon and Telesat close their business cases?
  • What is the CAPEX, and which ground strategy works with which player?
  • What business models are anticipated to be put in use by each of the players?
  • What is extent of GEO competition anticipated and inherent price-demand elasticity present in each of the constellations?
  • What is the forecast for new revenue segments required to achieve the target IRR and Net Cash (EOL, discounted) to replenish?

Bottom Line: Under what conditions can each MEO/LEO Constellation prove to be commercially viable, and what assumptions must be made to underpin this assessment?

Key Features:

NSR's ‘HTS Satellite Constellations: A Critical Assessment, 3rd Edition’ provides a comprehensive assessment of the emerging Non-GEO HTS market through an analysis of the 5 leading players within 15 existing segments of satcom, and the new segments enabled by non-GEO capacity.

The Report Includes:

  • Why non-GEO and Key Attributes
  • The Overall Satcom Market for Non-GEO and Strengths of Each of the 5 Players
  • Current Status of Top 5 Constellation Players
  • Cumulative Wholesale and Service Revenues for Each Market Vertical
  • CAPEX Analysis of Each Constellation
  • Business Feasibility Analysis (Target IRR Goal Based) and Requirement of New Segments
  • Assumptions and Forecast for New Non-GEO HTS Segments
  • Detailed Risk Analysis with Respect to CAPEX, Price Efficiency, GEO Competition, New Revenue Segments and Organizational

Who Should Purchase the Report?

  • Investors/VCs/Finance Professionals - to identify the right investment opportunity
  • Constellation Owners and Satellite Operators - for a competitive assessment
  • Service Providers and Distribution Partners - to assess the future of capacity supply and pricing dynamics
  • Manufacturers and Launch Providers
  • Insurance Companies
  • Ground Segment and User Antenna/Modem Providers
  • Anyone Seeking a Detailed, Bottom Line Assessment of the Viability of HTS Satellite Constellations

Companies and Organizations Mentioned in this Report:

Airbus, Aircom, Airtel, ALCAN, Alibaba, Alphabet (Loon), Amazon, Amazon Web Services, Arianespace, AT&T, Avanti, Bharti Global, Blue Origin, Boeing, BRI, Canada Government, CASC, CASIC, Comcast, DISA (US DoD), Eutelsat, FCC, Fidelity, GalaxySpace, Gartner, Geely, General Dynamics, Gilat, Google, Hughes/HNS, Intellian, Intelsat, Isotropic Systems, ITU, Kymeta, Kythera Space Systems, Maxar/MDA, Microsoft, Mynaric, NBN, NSSL Global, OmniAccess, OneWeb, Qualcomm, Reliance Jio, RSCC, SES, SDA (US DoD), Softbank, Space Norway, SpaceX, Talia, Taqnia, Telefonica, Telesat, Tesla, Thales, ThinKom, UK Government, US DoD, Verizon, and ViaSat.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • SpaceX Starlink Business Case
  • OneWeb Business Case
  • SES mPower Business Case
  • Amazon Kuiper Business Case
  • Telesat Business Case
  • Bottom Line

Chapter 1: Current Status of Top 5

  • 1.1.Architecture
  • 1.2.Launch Schedule
  • 1.3.Supply Forecast (Actual Throughput)
  • 1.4.Manufacturing/Launch Plan and Cost
  • 1.5.Anticipated Ground System Costs
  • 1.6.TOTAL CAPEX
  • 1.7.Funding Status
  • 1.8.Current Play, Assets and Pilots
  • 1.9.Frequency Coordination Status
  • 1.10.Other Constellations & Expectations
  • 1.11.Key Positives and Issues

Chapter 2: Understanding Non-GEO

  • 2.1.Why LEO (and MEO)? Where Does GEO-HTS Fall Short?
  • 2.2.GEO vs Non-GEO Through the Lens of NSR's Current Forecast
  • 2.3.Factors Enabling LEO (and MEO)
  • 2.4.User Terminals and Challenges
  • 2.5.Critical Tech - Software Defined, Revenue & Network Management

Chapter 3: Business Models

  • 3.1.Assumptions
  • 3.2.Preferred Business Segments per Player
  • 3.3.Wholesale vs. Service Choice, and Strengths
  • 3.4.SpaceX's Bet on U.S. Rural Broadband
  • 3.5.SpaceX's Bet on U.S. Mil Dedicated Payload
  • 3.6.OneWeb's Bankruptcy and Backhaul Bets
  • 3.7.mPower: SES's Second Gen MEO
  • 3.8.Amazon: Bet on Fiber and CDN with Secure Cloud
  • 3.9.Telesat's Wait for Market Entry Timing

Chapter 4: Business Feasibility

  • 4.1.Methodology - Goal Based Analysis and Financial Modelling
  • 4.2.Goal Based Analysis: Target Metrics to Close Each Player's Business Case
  • 4.3.Current Satcom Revenues and their Target IRRs for Each Player
    • 4.3.1.New Segments to Close Business Cases
    • 4.3.2.GEO Market Share Capture
    • 4.3.3.Inherent Elasticities
  • 4.4.Closing the Business Case & Wild Cards
  • 4.5.GEO Competition
  • 4.6.Bottom Line: Risk Benchmarking

List of Exhibits

Executive Summary

ES 1 to ES 5: Key Parametric Analysis for SpaceX, OneWeb, mPower, Amazon, Telesat

ES 6: Key Metrics Bottom Line

Chapter 1: Current Status of Top 5

  • 1.1.Architecture of Top 5
  • 1.2.Launch Schedule of Top 5
  • 1.3.Supply Forecast (Actual Throughput) of Top 5
  • 1.4.Manufacturing/Launch Plan and Cost of Top 5
  • 1.5.Anticipated Ground System Costs of Top 5
  • 1.6.Total CAPEX of Top 5
  • 1.7.Funding Status of Top 5
  • 1.8.Current Play, Assets and Pilots of Top 5
  • 1.9.Frequency Rights of Top 5

Chapter 2: Understanding Non-GEO

  • 2.1.Wholesale and Service Revenues for GEO and Non-GEO Across 5 Major Satcom Verticals

Chapter 3: Business Models

  • 3.1.Preferred Business Segments per Player on 15 Existing Satcom Segments
  • 3.2.Wholesale vs. Service Business Model Choice per Player per Vertical
  • 3.3.Technical/Business Strengths per Player per Vertical
  • 3.4.SpaceX's Assumptions towards U.S. Rural Broadband
  • 3.5.SpaceX's Assumptions towards U.S. Military Dedicated Payload
  • 3.6.Attributes of MEO and Comparison with LEO
  • 3.7.Amazon's Bet on Fiber + CDN Secure Cloud Assumptions
  • 3.8.Amazon's Bet on Fiber + CDN Secure Cloud Customer Segmentation
  • 3.9.Attributes of LEO and GEO-LEO Synergy
  • 3.10.Choice of New Business Segment per Player

Chapter 4: Business Feasibility

  • 4.1.Target Metrics from Goal Based Analysis per Player
  • 4.2.Target IRR from Current Satcom Revenues per Player
  • 4.3.Target IRR from New Segment Revenues per Player
  • 4.4.Target IRR from GEO Market Share Capture per Player
  • 4.5.% Elastic Margin per Player for Segments Backhaul, Trunking, VSAT and Consumer BB
  • 4.6.Addressability vs. Market Penetration for Backhaul and Consumer BB
  • 4.7.Wild Cards and Impact on Business Case per Player
  • 4.8.GEO Competition per Player per Vertical
  • 4.9.Risk Benchmarking per Player across Price, New Segments and on Organizational Basis