スマートグリッドにおける新興市場：展望（2021年）

新興諸国において、大規模なスマートグリッドインフラストラクチャ市場への投資が行われるようになってきています。北米、西欧、東アジアでの主要な最初のAMI導入はほとんどが終了しており、ベンダーは今後、新興地域全体の国での可能性にますます焦点を当てると考えられています。

今後10年間は、同市場における前例のない成長が見込まれていますが、Covid-19のパンデミックに見舞われ不安定なスタートを切っています。全国的な閉鎖と世界のサプライチェーンの中断により、事実上すべての地域でプロジェクトの遅延が発生しました。しかし、一時停止されたプロジェクトが比較的迅速に再開され、スマートグリッドインフラストラクチャ市場への全体的な影響が当初懸念されていたよりも少ないことが証明されました。

新興市場でのビジネスに典型的な障害とリスクは存続しており、現実的な機会は国によって大きく異なりますが、世界の新興国のスマートグリッドインフラストラクチャ市場の成長の見通しはかつてないほど強く、今後5年間でこれら50か国に914億米ドルが投資されると予測されています。

当レポートは、スマートグリッドにおける新興市場について調査し、今後5年間で最も高いレベルの投資が見込まれる新興国50カ国に焦点を当てており、市場の動向や予測、COVID-19パンデミックの影響、主要企業の情報などを提供しています。

目次

エグゼクティブサマリー

第1章 概要

第2章 新興市場のスマートグリッド指標

第3章 新興市場のスマートグリッド市場予測

第4章 国の概要

第5章 付録

• 調査手法
• 企業と略語のリスト

List of Figures, Boxes, and Tables

Emerging markets smart grid: key takeaways

Emerging markets (excluding China) - top 25 utilities

Total AMI deployments (units 2021 - 2025)

2021 Annual AMI forecast (units)

Covid-adjusted annual AMI deployment scenarios

Changes between 2019 & 2020 annual AMI deployments (by region)

• Table 1.1: Regional themes
• Figure 1.1: CEE smart grid activity
• Figure 1.2: China smart grid activity
• Figure 1.3: Eurasia smart grid activity
• Figure 1.4: Latin America smart grid activity
• Figure 1.5: MENA smart grid activity
• Figure 1.6: South Asia smart grid activity
• Figure 1.7: Southeast Asia smart grid activity
• Figure 1.8: Sub-Saharan Africa smart grid activity
• Table 1.2: AMI deployments -five largest markets
• Table 1.3: AMI deployments - Sub-Saharan Africa
• Table 1.4: AMI deployments - Eurasia
• Table 1.5: AMI deployments - Europe
• Table 1.6: AMI deployments - MENA
• Table 1.7: AMI deployments - South Asia
• Table 1.8: AMI deployments - Southeast Asia
• Table 1.9: AMI deployments - Latin America
• Figure 2.1: Smart metering market attractiveness matrix
• Figure 2.1: T&D losses by overall percentage and dollars lost
• Figure 2.2: Electricity consumption per capita
• Figure 2.3: Average residential electricity tariff
• Figure 2.4: Average GDP growth (2021 - 2025)
• Figure 3.1: Emerging markets smart grid forecast by region (cumulative)
• Table 3.1: Emerging markets cumulative smart grid forecast by region ($m)
• Figure 3.2: Emerging markets smart grid forecast by segment (cumulative)
• Table 3.2: Emerging markets cumulative smart grid forecast by segment ($m)
• Figure 3.3: Emerging markets AMI forecast by region (cumulative)
• Table 3.3: Emerging markets cumulative AMI forecast by region ($m)
• Figure 3.4: Emerging markets AMI forecast by region (annual)
• Table 3.4: Emerging markets annual AMI forecast by region ($m)
• Figure 3.5: Regional residential electricity meter market 2020
• Figure 3.6: Regional residential electricity meter market 2025
• Figure 3.7: Global AMI forecast comparison (cumulative deployed units)
• Figure 3.8: Global AMI forecast comparison (cumulative value)
• Figure 4.1: Countries covered

In addition to the figures and tables shown above, each country summary includes the following:

• Table: Power industry structure;
• Table: Leading distribution utilities
• Table: Smart grid environment
• Chart: Smart grid business case indicators
• Chart: 5-year AMI forecast

Therefore, this study includes over 100 additional unique charts and tables in addition to those cited above.

Northeast Group's “Emerging Markets Smart Grid: Outlook 2021” is the tenth edition of its annual emerging markets smart grid forecast. With the 2020s well underway, emerging market (EM) countries are shifting from their long-time status as areas of promise to one of immediate large-scale smart grid infrastructure investment. Most major first-time AMI deployments in North America, Western Europe, and East Asia are spoken for, and vendors will increasingly shift their focus to opportunities opening up in countries across all EM regions. This study highlights the 50 EM countries that will see the highest levels of investment over the next five years.

While the new decade is certain to be one of unprecedented growth in EM smart grid markets, it is off to a shaky start, blindsided by the Covid-19 pandemic. Nationwide shutdowns and global supply chain interruptions led to project delays in virtually all global regions. But 2020 was far from a lost year for the smart grid industry, as paused projects resumed relatively quickly, and the total impact on the smart grid infrastructure market proved to be less than initially feared. In fact, in the long term, Covid-19 could have a positive impact on the global smart grid market, having drawn unprecedented attention to the value of remote metering, particularly in EM regions, where struggling utilities were rendered unable to collect revenues during national lockdowns.

Overall conditions for sustained growth in EM markets have steadily improved. Non-technical loss rates remain high and are often the primary driver for smart grid infrastructure investment. EM countries are poised to rebound within a year or two from the ongoing global recession, allowing GDP and electricity consumption rates to continue their rapid rate of growth. Per-endpoint AMI prices have fallen significantly, and models for policy and financing design have been demonstrated by leading EM countries. By the mid- 2020s, EM activity will be highlighted by countries including India, Brazil, Mexico, Egypt, numerous countries in Central & Eastern Europe, and China, which remains dominated by domestic manufacturers.

The obstacles and risks typical of doing business in emerging markets persist, with the realistic opportunity varying widely from country to country. But prospects for global EM smart grid infrastructure market growth have never been stronger, leading to $91.4 billion invested across these 50 countries over the next five years.

Key questions answered in this study:

• Which 50 emerging market countries will deploy the most AMI meters over the next five years?

• Which countries have hit project obstacles and which have reached key milestones?

• How will the Covid-19 pandemic continue to impact the market in 2021?

• What is the forecast market for AMI, grid automation, distributed energy resources (DERs), IT, and utility storage in each emerging market region?

Research deliverables: 105-page PDF study + dataset in Excel.

Table of Contents

i. Executive Summary

1. Overview

2. Emerging markets smart grid indicators

3. Emerging markets smart grid market forecast

4. Country summaries

5. Appendix

• 5.1. Methodology
• 5.2. List of companies and acronyms