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インドのスマートグリッド市場の将来予測

India Smart Grid: Market Forecast (2015-2025)

発行 Northeast Group, LLC 商品コード 323207
出版日 ページ情報 英文 225 Pages
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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インドのスマートグリッド市場の将来予測 India Smart Grid: Market Forecast (2015-2025)
出版日: 2015年01月21日 ページ情報: 英文 225 Pages
概要

インドは世界の新興国の中でも、スマートグリッドの最大の市場機会を有する国です。電力市場の顧客ベースは世界第2位ですが、同第1位の中国と異なり、市場は外資系ベンダーにも開放されており、市場機会はより大きくなっています。更に、インド国内では送電・配電時の電力ロスが深刻な問題で、どの州でも損耗率は15%以上に達しており(全国平均は22.7%)、一部では50%以上という州もあります。そのため、スマートグリッドは電力企業にとって、電力損耗を削減して収益獲得機会を改善するのに不可欠な技術となっています。ただし、スマートグリッドの導入には巨額な投資が必要で(電力損耗対策だけでも120億米ドル以上)、国内系企業は躊躇している状態です。インド政府は多額の補助金を支給するとともに、全国14箇所でパイロットプロジェクトを推進しています。そうした支援策が実を結べば、インドのスマートグリッド市場は中長期的には莫大な市場機会をもたらすでしょう。

当レポートでは、インドにおけるスマートグリッド市場の将来展望について分析し、スマートグリッドの技術的概要やインド国内での現在の普及状況、他の国々との比較、インド全体および部門別・地域別の市場動向見通し(今後10年間分)、各地域の市場構造、政府の監督・支援政策や主要プロジェクトの情報、主要企業のプロファイルなどを調査しております。

目次

  • エグゼクティブ・サマリー
  • 調査手法

第1章 イントロダクション

  • スマートグリッドとは何か?
  • 世界各国でのスマートグリッドの活用状況は?

第2章 インドのスマートグリッドの概要

  • インドと他国との比較
  • スマートグリッドの促進要因
  • スマートグリッドの課題
  • 近年の動き

第3章 インドのスマートグリッド市場の予測

第4章 産業構造

  • 発電
  • 送電
  • 配電
  • 電力産業の監督機関

第5章 スマートグリッドの規制体制

  • 政府の全体的な監督体制の下でのスマートグリッド
  • ISGTF(India Smart Grid Task Force)によるパイロットプロジェクト
  • インドのスマートグリッドのロードマップ

第6章 マハーラーシュトラ州

  • 電力産業の構造
  • スマートグリッドの規制環境
  • 市場促進・阻害要因
  • ユーティリティ企業の活動

第7章 カルナーカタ州

第8章 デリー首都圏

第9章 グジャラート州

第10章 西ベンガル州

第11章 タミル・ナードゥ州

第12章 ケーララ州

第13章 その他の州・連邦直轄地

第14章 ベンダー活動

  • 国内系ベンダー
  • 外資系ベンダー:インド国内のスマートグリッド市場での活動

第15章 付録

  • 当レポートで言及した企業の一覧
  • 略語集

図表一覧

目次

Cover Image In many ways, India represents the best smart grid market opportunity among all emerging market countries. India has the second largest electricity customer market size in the world. Unlike China, which has the largest, the Indian market is likely to be open to international vendors, creating significantly larger market opportunities. Just as important, India has power sector market conditions that will require significant smart grid investment. At 22.7%, India has one of the highest T&D loss rates in the world. In some states, loss rates exceed 50%, and almost all states have loss rates above 15%. Most Indian utilities fail to achieve cost recovery, and smart grid investment will be an important tool for utilities to reduce losses and improve revenue collection and operational efficiency.

India T&D loss rates

                        Source: Northeast Group.

Financially strapped Indian utilities will need significant upfront financing to jumpstart these investments. The Indian central government has stepped in, making over $12 billion available for loss-reduction projects. Late in the last decade, India created an $8 billion fund for metering, GIS mapping, and data collection to set a baseline for smart grid efforts. More notably, in November 2014, Prime Minister Modi announced that the central government would make $4 billion available specifically for smart metering, with expectations that the private sector would provide an additional $1.6 billion. No details have been announced about this financing scheme, but this should help many utilities make the initial investments in smart grid necessary for long-term financial sustainability.

The Indian government is also helping stimulate the smart grid market by developing 14 smart grid pilot projects across the country. These projects are testing a diversity of technologies and will help set best practices and cost expectations for future deployments. India's pilot efforts are expected to last until 2017, at which point the government has set a roadmap that calls for large-scale deployments to all large metropolitan areas by 2022 and across the country by 2027. These plans also call for additional investment in renewable energy and microgrid projects.

India cumulative smart grid forecast

                        Source: Northeast Group.

With strong drivers and a willing government, there is no doubt that the medium-to-long term smart grid opportunities in India are enormous. In the near term, the environment may be more challenging. India's power sector is fragmented and complicated. Much like the US, each state has its own regulatory commission and industry structure and regulations can vary widely from state to state as utilities are in dynamic states of reform, unbundling, and privatization. Additionally, most of the planned pilot projects have currently stalled due to local complications and cost issues. Understanding the unique dynamics of each state will be critical to participate in this growing market.

T&D losses and consumption at India's largest distribution utilities*

                                                                                                                                     *Includes utilities with more than 2 million
                                                                                                                                     customers with available sales and loss data.

                        Source: Northeast Group;several utilities

Overall, India is one of the most unique smart grid markets in the world, combining among the world's largest market potential and high distribution and GDP growth rates with complicated regulatory structures and low per-capita income and consumption. Challenges are certain to persist, but the government's commitment to addressing India's significant power sector challenges by investing in smart grid infrastructure ensures strong smart grid market growth throughout the coming decade.

Distribution franchising in Maharashtra

Key questions answered in this study:

  • How large will six smart grid market segments and fourteen sub-markets be in 2025?
  • What are the unique regulatory frameworks and industry structures in place in the leading Indian states?
  • How much money can each state and utility save by reducing non-technical losses?
  • What financing mechanisms are available for smart grid in India?
  • Where are distribution franchises improving the market conditions for smart grid investment?
  • What is the current status of smart grid pilot projects in India and what are the major hurdles?
  • Who are the leading local and international vendors?

Table of Contents

  • i. Executive summary
  • ii. Methodology

1. Introduction

  • 1.1. What is smart grid?
  • 1.2. How has smart grid been used elsewhere in the world?

2. India smart grid snapshot

  • 2.1. India in comparison
  • 2.2. Smart grid drivers
  • 2.3. Smart grid challenges
  • 2.4. Recent activity

3. India smart grid market forecast

4. Industry structure

  • 4.1. Generation
  • 4.2. Transmission
  • 4.3. Distribution
  • 4.4. Power sector regulatory bodies

5. Smart grid regulatory framework

  • 5.1. Smart grid within broader government regulations
  • 5.2. Pilot projects developed by ISGTF
  • 5.3. India smart grid roadmap

6. Maharashtra

  • 6.1. Electricity industry structure
  • 6.2. Smart grid regulatory environment
  • 6.3. Drivers and barriers
  • 6.4. Utility activity

7. Karnataka

  • 7.1. Electricity industry structure
  • 7.2. Smart grid regulatory environment
  • 7.3. Drivers and barriers
  • 7.4. Utility activity

8. Delhi

  • 8.1. Electricity industry structure
  • 8.2. Smart grid regulatory environment
  • 8.3. Drivers and barriers
  • 8.4. Utility activity

9. Gujarat

  • 9.1. Electricity industry structure
  • 9.2. Smart grid regulatory environment
  • 9.3. Drivers and barriers
  • 9.4. Utility activity

10. West Bengal

  • 10.1. Electricity industry structure
  • 10.2. Smart grid regulatory environment
  • 10.3. Drivers and barriers
  • 10.4. Utility activity

11. Tamil Nadu

  • 11.1. Electricity industry structure
  • 11.2. Smart grid regulatory environment
  • 11.3. Drivers and barriers
  • 11.4. Utility activity

12. Kerala

  • 12.1. Electricity industry structure
  • 12.2. Smart grid regulatory environment
  • 12.3. Drivers and barriers
  • 12.4. Utility activity

13. Other Indian states and territories

  • 13.1. Market drivers and barriers
  • 13.2. Activity in other states and territories in India
    • 13.2.1. Joint union territories
    • 13.2.2. Rajasthan
    • 13.2.3. Andhra Pradesh
    • 13.2.4. Uttar Pradesh
    • 13.2.5. Bihar
    • 13.2.6. Rest of the country

14. Vendor activity

  • 14.1. Domestic vendors
  • 14.2. International vendors active in smart grid in India

15. Appendix

  • 15.1. List of companies covered in this report
  • 15.2. List of acronyms

List of Figures, Boxes, and Tables

  • India smart grid: key takeaways
  • Total customer size of Indian states
  • India T&D loss rates
  • T&D loss rates and smart grid activity in Indian states
  • T&D losses and consumption at India's largest distribution utilities
  • Goals of India's smart grid roadmap
  • Smart grid regulatory drivers in India
  • R-APDRP
  • India Smart Grid Task Force pilot projects
  • India cumulative smart grid forecast
  • India cumulative smart grid forecast data
  • Northeast Group Smart Grid Forecasting Model
  • Figure 1.1: Smart grid value chain
  • Figure 1.2: Smart grid model highlighting focus in India
  • Table 1.1: Solar potential in India by state
  • Figure 1.3: Regional transmission grids in India
  • Table 1.2: Benefits of AMI in India
  • Table 1.3: Demand response options
  • Figure 1.4: Global smart grid activity
  • Figure 1.5: Cumulative AMI investment by region up to 2015
  • Figure 1.6: Cumulative DA investment by region up to 2015
  • Figure 1.7: Cumulative AMI investment by region from 2015 -- 2025
  • Figure 1.8: Cumulative DA investment by region from 2015 -- 2025
  • Figure 2.1: Emerging markets smart meter potential
  • Figure 2.2: Per-capita electricity consumption
  • Figure 2.3: Per-capita CO2 emissions
  • Figure 2.4: Projected GDP growth (2014 -- 2018)
  • Figure 2.5: T&D losses in India
  • Figure 2.6: Net profits of state utilities in India
  • Figure 2.7: T&D loss rates and smart grid activity in Indian states
  • Figure 2.8: Smart grid regulatory drivers in India
  • Figure 2.9: Total electricity demand growth in India
  • Figure 2.10: Solar and wind resources in India
  • Table 2.1: Distribution franchises in India
  • Figure 2.11: Delays in India's ISGTF pilot projects in 2014
  • Table 2.2: Status of India's ISGTF pilot projects (as of December 2014)
  • Figure 2.12: Per-capita electricity consumption by state in India
  • Figure 2.13: Costs of AMI deployments per kWh
  • Figure 2.14: Power sector spending in India to 2019
  • Figure 2.15: Global electrification rates
  • Table 2.3: Other smart grid pilot projects in India
  • Figure 3.1: India AMI penetration rate
  • Figure 3.2: India cumulative smart grid forecast
  • Table 3.1: India cumulative smart grid forecast data
  • Figure 3.3: Annual AMI deployments in India
  • Figure 3.4: Comparison of local and internationally made AMI meter costs
  • Figure 3.5: RF-based AMI cost breakdown
  • Figure 3.6: AMI forecast by segment
  • Table 3.2: AMI forecast data by segment
  • Figure 3.7: DA forecast by segment
  • Table 3.3: DA forecast data by segment
  • Figure 3.8: HEM forecast by segment
  • Table 3.4: HEM forecast data by segment
  • Figure 3.9: IT forecast by segment
  • Table 3.5: IT forecast data by segment
  • Table 4.1: Ownership and control in India's electricity sector
  • Figure 4.1: Generation in India
  • Table 4.2: Utilities and regulators in India by state
  • Figure 4.2: Growth in transmission networks in India
  • Figure 4.3: Regulation of India's transmission sector
  • Table 4.3: Main utilities in India
  • Figure 4.4: T&D losses and consumption at India's largest distribution utilities
  • Figure 4.5: Map of distribution franchises in India
  • Table 4.4: Distribution franchise models
  • Table 4.5: Key elements of the Electricity Act of 2003
  • Table 5.1: R-APDRP Box 5.1: Political risk in India
  • Figure 5.1: Roadmap to Enable the Transformation of Power Distribution Through Technology
  • Table 5.2: India Smart Grid Task Force pilot projects
  • Figure 5.2: Map of ISGTF pilot projects
  • Table 5.3: India smart grid roadmap
  • Figure 5.3: Goals of India's smart grid roadmap
  • Table 6.1: Maharashtra key data
  • Table 6.2: Smart grid indicators in Maharashtra
  • Figure 6.1: Maharashtra electricity generation statistics
  • Table 6.3: Main utilities in Maharashtra
  • Figure 6.2: Distribution franchising in Maharashtra
  • Figure 6.3: T&D loss comparison in Maharashtra
  • Table 6.4: Smart grid projects in Maharashtra
  • Table 7.1: Karnataka key data
  • Table 7.2: Smart grid indicators in Karnataka
  • Figure 7.1: Karnataka electricity generation statistics
  • Table 7.3: Main distribution utilities in Karnataka
  • Figure 7.2: Karnataka solar policy
  • Figure 7.3: T&D loss comparison in Karnataka
  • Figure 7.4: Karnataka smart grid projects
  • Table 8.1: Delhi key data
  • Table 8.2: Smart grid indicators in Delhi
  • Figure 8.1: Delhi electricity generation statistics
  • Table 8.3: Main distribution utilities in Delhi
  • Figure 8.2: Evolution of T&D losses in Delhi
  • Figure 8.3: T&D loss comparison in Delhi
  • Figure 8.4: Tariff and T&D loss rates in metropolitan India
  • Table 9.1: Gujarat key data
  • Table 9.2: Smart grid indicators in Gujarat
  • Figure 9.1: Gujarat electricity generation statistics
  • Table 9.3: Main distribution utilities in Gujarat
  • Figure 9.2: ADB support for power sector projects in Gujarat
  • Figure 9.3: T&D loss comparison in Gujarat
  • Figure 9.4: Smart grid drivers in Gujarat
  • Table 10.1: West Bengal key data
  • Table 10.2: Smart grid indicators in West Bengal
  • Figure 10.1: West Bengal electricity generation statistics
  • Table 10.3: Main distribution utilities in West Bengal
  • Figure 10.2: Annual growth rate of key electricity metrics in West Bengal
  • Figure 10.3: Contributing factors to West Bengal's strong utility performance
  • Table 10.4: Electrification progress in West Bengal
  • Figure 10.4: Electrification programs in West Bengal
  • Figure 10.5: T&D loss comparison in West Bengal
  • Table 11.1: Tamil Nadu key data
  • Table 11.2: Smart grid indicators in Tamil Nadu
  • Figure 11.1: Tamil Nadu electricity generation statistics
  • Figure 11.2: India's Green Energy Corridor project
  • Figure 11.3: State distribution losses due to underpricing
  • Figure 11.4: Tamil Nadu smart grid plan
  • Figure 11.5: Renewable energy in Tamil Nadu
  • Figure 11.6: T&D loss comparison in Tamil Nadu
  • Figure 11.7: 1.5 million meter replacement tender in Tamil Nadu
  • Table 12.1: Kerala key data
  • Table 12.2: Smart grid indicators in Kerala
  • Figure 12.1: Kerala electricity generation statistics
  • Figure 12.2: Annual capital outlay in Kerala
  • Figure 12.3: Renewable energy policies in Kerala
  • Figure 12.4: T&D loss comparison in Kerala
  • Figure 12.5: Kerala meter replacement program
  • Figure 12.6: Annual per-capita consumption in key states
  • Table 13.1: Key data for other main states in India
  • Table 13.2: Smart grid pilot projects in other Indian states
  • Figure 13.1: Population, market size, and electrification rates of largest Indian states
  • Table 13.3: Key data for Joint Union Territories and Goa
  • Table 13.4: Rajasthan key data
  • Figure 13.2: Smart grid drivers in Andhra Pradesh
  • Figure 13.3: States with highest T&D losses in India
  • Table 13.5: States not covered in depth in this study
  • Figure 14.2: Leading smart grid vendors in India
  • Table 14.1: Other leading Indian smart grid vendors
  • Figure 14.2: Other leading international smart grid vendors in India
  • Table 14.3: Partnerships of key Indian vendors
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