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市場調査レポート

ユーラシア地域のスマートグリッド市場の予測

Eurasia Smart Grid: Market Forecast (2014 - 2024)

発行 Northeast Group, LLC 商品コード 311901
出版日 ページ情報 英文
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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ユーラシア地域のスマートグリッド市場の予測 Eurasia Smart Grid: Market Forecast (2014 - 2024)
出版日: 2014年09月05日 ページ情報: 英文
概要

ユーラシア地域には、スマートグリッドへの投資を推進する要因がいくつかあり、2014年末までには300万個に近いスマートメーターがすでに導入される見通しです。高い配電損失や手頃な地元のベンダーが推進因子となり、 ユーティリティ事業者、特にロシア、ウクライナのユーティリティ事業者は、強力な法規制上のインセンティブがないにも関わらず、スマートメーターの導入に積極的です。ユーラシア地域でのスマートグリッドへの投資額は、2014年から2024年にかけての累計で183億ドルに達する見通しです。

当レポートでは、旧ソ連の12カ国におけるスマートグリッドへの投資の状況と展望について調査し、それぞれの電力産業の構造、スマートグリッド関連の法規制、投資予測、ユーティリティ事業者の取り組みなどをまとめています。

エグゼクティブサマリー

調査手法

第1章 イントロダクション

第2章 ユーラシア地域のスマートグリッド:概要

  • 地域とその比較
  • ユーラシア地域における成長推進因子
  • ユーラシア地域における成長阻害因子
  • もっとも最近の発展動向

第3章 地域市場の予測

第4章 ロシア

  • 電力産業の構造
  • スマートグリッドの法規制環境
  • 市場予測
  • ユーティリティ事業者の活動

第5章 ウズベキスタン

  • 電力産業の構造
  • スマートグリッドの法規制環境
  • 市場予測
  • ユーティリティ事業者の活動

第6章 ウクライナ

  • 電力産業の構造
  • スマートグリッドの法規制環境
  • 市場予測
  • ユーティリティ事業者の活動

第7章 カザフスタン

  • 電力産業の構造
  • スマートグリッドの法規制環境
  • 市場予測
  • ユーティリティ事業者の活動

第8章 キルギスタン

  • 電力産業の構造
  • スマートグリッドの法規制環境
  • 市場予測
  • ユーティリティ事業者の活動

第9章 その他の国々

  • 東欧:ベラルーシ・モルドバ
  • コーカサス地域:アルメニア・アゼルバイジャン・グルシア
  • 中央アジア:タジキスタン・トルクメニスタン

第10章 ベンダーの取り組み

  • ユーラシア地域のベンダー
  • ユーラシア地域で活動する国際的ベンダー

第11章 付録

図表

目次

The Eurasia region has several drivers for smartgrid investment. Mostnotably, by the end of 2014 there will be nearly 3 million smart meters already deployed in this region. Driven by high distribution losses and aided by affordable local vendors, utilities-particularly in Russia and Ukraine-have been ambitious in deploying smart meters, despite a lack of strong regulatory incentives. This bodes well for future deployments, as investment should continue even without strong regulatory drivers. Overall, cumulative smart grid investment in Eurasia will reach $18.3 billion between 2014 and 2024. This includes investment in advanced metering infrastructure (AMI), distribution automation (DA), wide area measurement (WAM), home energy management (HEM), and information technology (IT).

image1

This study covers all twelve former Soviet countries not currently in the EU, which share several key characteristics. Until 1991, they were all part of the Soviet Union. As a result, they share not only an interconnected power grid but also a legacy of inefficient power usage across the residential, commercial, and especially industrial segments. On average, Eurasian countries have the highest energy intensity of any emerging market region in the world. Until recently, this had been ignored by governments eager to streamline economic growth, but in the past five years all major countries have passed some form of energy efficiency law. Smart grid will play an important role in improving the energy efficiency of Eurasian economies-both through direct incentives such as revised tariffs and by making consumers more aware of their energy consumption.

Electricity distribution losses are also above average across Eurasia. Only Kazakhstan has an official distribution loss rate below the emerging market average, however it is important to note that Kazakhstan's unofficial loss rate is well above average. In neighboring Central Asian countries, distribution loss rates exceed 20%. Smart meters are the most effective tool at reducing distribution loss rates. They have already succeeded in bringing loss rates in Russia and Ukraine close to the emerging market average and multilateral financing programs are in place to reduce losses in Uzbekistan. In many cases, reducing losses can provide enough savings to cover the costs of smart metering investments, even without a strong regulatory framework.

image2

Such a clear---cut business case is necessary for at least the next few years, as the political and regulatory environment in Eurasian countries is challenging. No Eurasian countries have meaningful smart grid regulations, and energy efficiency and renewable energy regulations are still in their early stages. Meanwhile, corruption is extremely high, with almost all Eurasian countries falling in the bottom quartile of Transparency International s Corruption Perceptions Index. Political risk has only worsened in 2014 due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. This creates considerable risk throughout the region, all of which Russia considers under its sphere of influence. In some cases, economic sanctions could make smart grid activity from Western firms difficult in the near term.

But ultimately, the conditions for smart grid development in Eurasia are strong enough to drive investment in all but the most challenging regulatory environments. Meanwhile, even in countries with poor economic and political climates, multilateral funding may be available to ensure secure financing, implement necessary technical standards, and overcome political risk hurdles-as is the current case in Uzbekistan. With poor energy efficiency, high distribution losses, and knowledgeable local firms eager to partner with international smart grid vendors, the medium---term outlook for smart grid infrastructure in Eurasia is favorable. By 2024, the smart grid market in Eurasia will be comparable to that of Central & Eastern Europe, and trail only China, India, and Latin America among emerging market regions in total market size.

image3

Key questions answered in this study:

  • How large will five smart grid market segments and fourteen sub---markets be in 2024?
  • How are multilateral lending programs driving smart grid investments?
  • Where are smart meter deployments already well developed?
  • What will be the effect of current political crises on the smart grid and infrastructure industries?
  • Which international and local vendors are best placed to serve the market?

Table of Contents

i. Executive Summary

ii. Methodology

1. Introduction

  • 1.1 What is smart grid?
  • 1.2 How is smart grid being used elsewhere in the world?

2. Eurasia smart grid snapshot

  • 2.1 The region in comparison
  • 2.2 Regional drivers
  • 2.3 Regional challenges
  • 2.4 Most recent developments

3. Regional market forecast

4. Russia

  • 4.1 Electricity industry structure
  • 4.2 Smart grid regulatory environment
  • 4.3 Market forecast
  • 4.4 Utility activity

5. Uzbekistan

  • 5.1 Electricity industry structure
  • 5.2 Smart grid regulatory environment
  • 5.3 Market forecast
  • 5.4 Utility activity

6. Ukraine

  • 6.1 Electricity industry structure
  • 6.2 Smart grid regulatory environment
  • 6.3 Market forecast
  • 6.4 Utility activity

7. Kazakhstan

  • 7.1 Electricity industry structure
  • 7.2 Smart grid regulatory environment
  • 7.3 Market forecast
  • 7.4 Utility activity

8. Kyrgyzstan

  • 8.1 Electricity industry structure
  • 8.2 Smart grid regulatory environment
  • 8.3 Market forecast
  • 8.4 Utility activity

9. Other countries

  • 9.1 Eastern Europe: Belarus and Moldova
  • 9.2 Caucasus: Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia
  • 9.3 Central Asia: Tajikistan and Turkmenistan

10. Vendor activity

  • 10.1 Eurasia---based vendors
  • 10.2 International vendors active in Eurasia

11. Appendix

  • 11.1 List of companies covered in this report
  • 11.2 List of acronyms

List of Figures, Boxes, and Tables

  • Eurasia smart grid: key takeaways
  • Smart meter deployments in Eurasia
  • Major smart meter deployments in Russia
  • Energy intensity in Eurasia
  • Distribution losses in Eurasia
  • Average regulatory scores in emerging markets
  • Ranking of Eurasia countries in Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index
  • Leading smart grid vendors in Eurasia
  • Market share of leading vendors in Eurasia
  • Eurasia cumulative smart grid forecast by country
  • Eurasia cumulative smart grid forecast data by country
  • Figure 1.1: Smart grid value chain
  • Figure 1.2: Smart grid model
  • Table 1.1: Benefits of AMI in Eurasia
  • Table 1.2: Demand response options
  • Figure 1.3: Smart grid activity in emerging markets
  • Figure 1.4: Cumulative AMI investment by region in 2014
  • Figure 1.5: Cumulative DA investment by region in 2014
  • Figure 2.1: Emerging markets smart meter potential
  • Figure 2.2: Per---capita electricity consumption
  • Figure 2.3: Per---capita CO2 emissions
  • Figure 2.4: Projected GDP growth in Eurasia
  • Figure 2.5: Distribution losses in Eurasia 3
  • Figure 2.6: Energy intensity in Eurasia
  • Table 2.1: Reliability indicators in Eurasia
  • Figure 2.7: Solar and wind resources in Eurasia 3
  • Figure 2.8: Average regulatory scores in emerging markets
  • Figure 2.9: Per---capita income in Eurasia
  • Figure 2.10: Electricity prices in emerging markets
  • Figure 2.11: Ranking of Eurasian countries in TI's Corruption Perceptions Index
  • Figure 3.1: Eurasia AMI penetration rate
  • Figure 3.2: Eurasia cumulative smart grid forecast by country 4
  • Table 3.1: Eurasia cumulative smart grid forecast data by country
  • Figure 3.3: Eurasia cumulative smart grid forecast
  • Table 3.2: Eurasia cumulative smart grid forecast data
  • Figure 3.4: Annual AMI deployments in Eurasia
  • Figure 3.5: AMI cost breakdown
  • Figure 3.6: AMI forecast by segment
  • Table 3.3: AMI forecast data by segment
  • Figure 3.7: DA forecast by segment
  • Table3.4: DA forecast data by segment
  • Figure 3.8: HEM forecast by segment
  • Table 3.5: HEM forecast data by segment
  • Figure 3.9: IT forecast by segment
  • Table 3.6: IT forecast data by segment
  • Table 4.1: Russia key data
  • Figure 4.1: Russia AMI penetration rate
  • Table 4.2: Smart grid indicators in Russia
  • Box 4.1: Political risk in Russia
  • Figure 4.2: Distribution companies controlled by Rosseti (Russian Grids)
  • Figure 4.3: Federal regulations affecting smart grid in Russia
  • Box 4.2: Standards for transmission, distribution, and metering devices in Russia
  • Figure 4.4: Russia cumulative smart grid forecast 6
  • Table 4.3: Russia cumulative smart grid forecast data
  • Figure 4.5: Russia cumulative AMI forecast
  • Table 4.6: Russia cumulative AMI forecast data 6
  • Figure 4.7: Major smart meter deployments in Russia
  • Table 5.1: Uzbekistan key data
  • Figure 5.1: Uzbekistan AMI penetration rate
  • Table 5.2: Smart grid indicators in Uzbekistan
  • Box 5.1: Political risk in Uzbekistan
  • Figure 5.2: Multilateral funding programs for AMI metering in Uzbekistan
  • Figure 5.3: Uzbekistan cumulative smart grid forecast
  • Table 5.3: Uzbekistan cumulative smart grid forecast data
  • Figure 5.4: Uzbekistan cumulative AMI forecast
  • Table 5.4: Uzbekistan cumulative AMI forecast data
  • Table 6.1: Ukraine key data
  • Figure 6.1: Ukraine AMI penetration rate
  • Table 6.2: Smart grid indicators in Ukraine
  • Box 6.1: Political risk in Ukraine
  • Figure 6.2: Non---traditional renewable energy generation in Ukraine
  • Figure 6.3: Ukraine cumulative smart grid forecast
  • Table 6.3: Ukraine cumulative smart grid forecast data
  • Figure 6.4: Ukraine cumulative AMI forecast
  • Table 6.4: Ukraine cumulative AMI forecast data
  • Table 7.1: Kazakhstan key data
  • Figure 7.1: Kazakhstan AMI penetration rate
  • Table 7.2: Smart grid indicators in Kazakhstan
  • Box 7.1: Political risk in Kazakhstan
  • Figure 7.2: Countries with highest per---capita CO2 emissions
  • Figure 7.3: Kazakhstan cumulative smart grid forecast
  • Table 7.3: Kazakhstan cumulative smart grid forecast data
  • Figure 7.4: Kazakhstan cumulative AMI forecast
  • Table 7.4: Kazakhstan cumulative AMI forecast data
  • Table 8.1: Kyrgyzstan key data
  • Figure 8.1: Kyrgyzstan AMI penetration rate
  • Table 8.2: Smart grid indicators in Kyrgyzstan
  • Box 8.1: Political risk in Kyrgyzstan
  • Figure 8.2: Highest global official distribution loss rates
  • Figure 8.3: Kyrgyzstan cumulative smart grid forecast
  • Table 8.3: Kyrgyzstan cumulative smart grid forecast data
  • Figure 8.4: Kyrgyzstan cumulative AMI forecast
  • Table 8.4: Kyrgyzstan cumulative AMI forecast data
  • Table 9.1: Other Eurasia key data
  • Figure 9.1: Other Eurasia cumulative smart grid forecast
  • Table 9.2: Other Eurasia cumulative smart grid forecast data
  • Figure 9.2: Other Eurasia cumulative AMI forecast
  • Table 9.3: Other Eurasia cumulative AMI forecast data
  • Figure 10.1: Leading smart grid vendors in Eurasia
  • Figure 10.2: Market share of leading AMI vendors in Eurasia
  • Figure 10.3: Leading emerging market---based smart grid vendors
  • Figure 10.4: ADD smart meter deployments in Eurasia
  • Table 15.1: Matritca smart meter deployments in Russia
  • Table 15.2: Additional smart grid vendors based in Eurasia
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