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ブラジルのスマートグリッド市場予測

Brazil Smart Grid: Market Forecast (2012 - 2022)

発行 Northeast Group, LLC 商品コード 269954
出版日 ページ情報 英文 134 Pages
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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本日の銀行送金レート: 1USD=114.71円で換算しております。
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ブラジルのスマートグリッド市場予測 Brazil Smart Grid: Market Forecast (2012 - 2022)
出版日: 2012年09月01日 ページ情報: 英文 134 Pages
概要

当レポートでは、昨年スマートメータリング規制枠組みの変更が発表されたブラジルのスマートグリッド市場について調査し、スマートメータリング(AMI)およびホームエネルギー管理(HEM)市場予測のアップデート、国の規制枠組みの分析、主要ベンダーのM&A活動に関する情報と見通しなどをまとめ、概略以下の構成でお届けいたします。

第1章 イントロダクション

第2章 ブラジルのスマートグリッド:概要

  • 現況
  • 地域比較
  • 電力産業の構造
  • スマートメータリング規制の枠組み
  • 市場促進因子・阻害因子

第3章 スマートグリッド市場予測

  • 第1巻からの変更点
  • 導入開始日・ペース
  • コスト推計
  • 代替シナリオ

第4章 詳細なスマートグリッド市場予測・技術展望

  • AMI
  • 広域計測
  • 配電自動化
  • ホームエネルギー管理

第5章 ユーティリティ企業

  • AES
  • lberdrola
  • PFL
  • Light
  • Cemig
  • Endesa
  • Copel
  • Rede Energia
  • EDP
  • Eletrobras
  • Celesc
  • Cemar

第6章 ベンダー活動

  • 国内ベンダー
  • 国際ベンダー

第7章 結論

第8章 付録

図表

目次

Northeast Group has published the second volume of its Brazil Smart Grid: Market Forecast (2012-2022) following the recent changes to Brazil's smart metering regulatory framework announced in August 2012. In particular, this volume updates the smart metering (AMI) and home energy management (HEM) market forecasts, analysis of the country's regulatory framework, and information on the role and prospects of leading vendors given a wave of recent merger and acquisition activity.

Figure 3.2: Combined smart grid forecast

Source: Northeast Group

Brazil is already one of the leading emerging market countries in terms of smart grid development. With the fifth largest population in the world and a government that is eager to modernize the country's infrastructure, Brazil will become one of the largest smart grid markets in the world by the end of the decade.

Figure 2.14: Payback on AMI meter from loss
reduction in average Brazilian home

Source: Northeast Group

Brazil's smart grid development is the Product of strong underlying market conditions government action. Like many emerging market countries, Brazil has high rates of and positive non-technical distribution losses, implying that utilities will reap immediate revenue protection benefits through smart meter deployments.

Figure 2.1: Emerging markets smart meter potential

Source: Northeast Group

Brazil also has a rapidly growing economy, which is beginning to strain existing infrastructure. As the country continues to grow, the reliability and energy savings benefits of smart grid will become increasingly important.

The Brazilian government has taken notice and in 2009 it set a non-binding target of replacing all 63 million existing electromechanical meters with smart meters by 2021. However, in August 2012, the government announced an “ opt-in” smart meter regulation for existing customers, paired with a mandate requiring smart meters for all new customers. This was not the anticipated market catalyst for those expecting a binding mandate to replace all 63 million existing legacy meters with smart meters. As a result, Northeast Group is currently forecasting that Brazil will not reach its initial 63 million smart meter target. Yet, some government officials and regulators are still optimistic that the initial goal can be achieved, which may inspire future incentive structures and more favorable smart metering regulations.

Smart grid development at Brazilian utilities

Source: Northeast Group

With strong underlying economic and political conditions, it is inevitable that Brazil's smart grid market will grow significantly in the coming decade. The question is simply how fast deployments will take place. Through a combination of new meter installations, smart meters targeted at reducing non-technical losses, and customers eager to take advantage of advanced smart grid applications, more than half of Brazilian homes will have smart meters by the end of the decade. However, the August 2012 regulations fell short of the concrete mandate needed for Brazil to meet it's original goal of 63 million meters by 2021. Nonetheless, Brazil remains a very significant smart grid market for both vendors and customers alike.

Key questions answered in this report:

  • How will new regulations affect near-term smart meter deployments ?
  • How large will the smart grid market - including 14 segments - become over the next decade ?
  • Which international vendors are already active in Brazil, which have won recent contracts and which have been engaged in M&A activity?
  • Which domestic vendors are poised to partner with international firms to exploit the growing smart grid market?
  • How will Brazilian utilities build their smart meter business cases ?
  • Which utilities have already developed pilot projects and which technologies are they using ?
  • Where in Brazil are distribution automation and home energy management already advanced ?

Table of Contents

  • i. Executive Summary
    • i.i. Updates in Volume II of this report
  • ii. Methodology

1. Introduction

2. Brazil smart grid snapshot

  • 2.1. Current situation
  • 2.2. Regional comparison
  • 2.3. Electricity industry structure
  • 2.4. Smart metering regulatory framework
  • 2.5. Market drivers and barriers

3. Smart grid market forecast

  • 3.1. Changes from the Volume I forecast
  • 3.2. Deployment start date and pace
  • 3.3. Cost estimates
  • 3.4. Alternative scenario

4. Detailed smart grid market forecast and technology outlook

  • 4.1. AMI
    • 4.1.1. Meter hardware
    • 4.1.2. Communications options
    • 4.1.3. IT: meter data management and customer information systems
    • 4.1.4. Professional services
    • 4.1.5. Installation costs
    • 4.1.6. Prepaid metering
  • 4.2. Wide area measurement
  • 4.3. Distribution automation
    • 4.3.1. Overview of DA in Brazil
    • 4.3.2. Distribution automation components
      • 4.3.2.1. Substation automation and monitoring
      • 4.3.2.2. ZFDIR
      • 4.3.2.3. Volt/VAR optimization
      • 4.3.2.4. Grid monitoring and control
    • 4.3.3. Distribution automation activity in Brazil
  • 4.4. Home energy management
    • 4.4.1. Home area networks
    • 4.4.2. Distributed generation: solar inverters with communication capability
    • 4.4.3. Electric vehicle supply equipment

5. Utilities

  • 5.1. AES
  • 5.2. lberdrola
  • 5.1. PFL
  • 5.2. Light
  • 5.1. Cemig
  • 5.2. Endesa
  • 5.1. Copel
  • 5.2. Rede Energia
  • 5.1. EDP
  • 5.2. Eletrobras
  • 5.1. Celesc
  • 5.2. Cemar

6. Vendor activity

  • 6.1. Domestic vendors
  • 6.2. International vendors
    • 6.2.1. International vendors in AMI projects
    • 6.2.2. International vendors in distribution automation projects
    • 6.2.3. International vendors poised to expand in Brazil

7. Conclusion

8. Appendix

  • 8.1. Domestic electricity sector vendors in Brazil
  • 8.2. List of companies mentioned in this report
  • 8.3. List of acronyms

Table of Figures, Boxes and Tables:

  • Updated vs. original smart grid forecast
  • Brazil smart grid: key takeaways
  • Brazil smart grid: leading indicators
  • Smart grid development at Brazilian utilities
  • Updated Brazil smart grid forecast data
  • Updated combined smart grid forecast
  • Figure 1.1: Smart grid value chain
  • Figure 1.2: Projected wind generation in Brazil
  • Figure 1.3: smart grid model highlighting focus in Brazil
  • Table 1.1: Benefits of AMI in Brazil
  • Table 1.2: Demand response options
  • Figure 1.4: Solar and wind resources in Brazil
  • Table 2.1: Classification of meters by type
  • Table 2.2: Functionalities of electronic meters
  • Figure 2.1: Emerging markets smart meter potential
  • Figure 2.2: Current smart meter penetration rates in Latin America
  • Figure 2.3: Per - capita electricity consumption in emerging markets
  • Figure 2.4: Average residential consumption in Brazil
  • Figure 2.5: G10bal per - capita CO2 emissions
  • Figure 2.6: Actual and forecasted GDP growth in Latin America
  • Box 2.1: Smart grid throughout Latin America
  • Figure 2.7: G10bal residential electricity Prices
  • Figure 2.8: Electricity generation mix in Brazil
  • Figure 2.9: Contracted and forecasted new generation
  • Figure 2.10: Utility ownership in Brazil
  • Box 2.2: Brazil political situation - the Dilma effect
  • Figure 2.11: Electricity regulatory structure in Brazil
  • Figure 2.12: Conventional and “white ” tariffs
  • Table 2.3: Smart grid - related government action in Brazil
  • Figure 2.13: Global distribution losses
  • Box 2.3: Smart meter business case in Brazil - an analysis of loss reduction alone
  • Figure 2.14: Payback on AMI meter from loss reduction in average Brazilian home
  • Figure 2.15: Payback on average reslcomm.AMI meter from 1055 reduction in two utilities
  • Figure 2.16: Aggregate cost savings from reslcomm.non - technical 1055 reduction
  • Figure 2.17: Percent manufacturing sales lost to power outages
  • Figure 2.18: Electricity consumption growth in Brazil
  • Table 2.4: Percentage of customers who would alter habits if peak prices were to double
  • Table 2.5: Appliance ownership in Brazil
  • Table 2.6: Smart grid drivers and barriers in Brazil
  • Figure 2.19: Percentage renewable energy consumption in Latin America
  • Figure 3.1: Updated vs. original smart grid forecast
  • Figure 3.2: Timeline of smart grid development in Brazil
  • Figure 3.3: Combined smart grid forecast
  • Table 3.1: Brazil smart grid forecast data
  • Figure 3.4: Annual AMI deployments
  • Figure 3.5: Brazil smart meter penetration rate
  • Figure 3.6: Delayed deployment scenario
  • Figure 4.1: AMI cost breakdown
  • Table 4.2: AMI forecast data
  • Figure 4.2: Combined AMI forecast
  • Table 4.2: Communications technologies
  • Figure 4.3: Phasor measurement unit (PMU) forecast
  • Table 4.3: Distribution automation forecast data
  • Figure 4.4: Distribution automation forecast
  • Figure 4.5: Substation and distribution automation in Brazil
  • Table 4.4: Home energy management forecast data
  • Figure 4.6: Home energy management forecast
  • Figure 4.7: Electric vehicle forecast
  • Figure 4.8: EV incentives in Brazil
  • Figure 5.1: Smart grid development at Brazilian utilities
  • Table 5.1: Brazilian distribution utilities
  • Box 5.1: Light's Optimus program
  • Figure 5.2: Non - technical losses as a percentage of total sales in Brazilian utilities
  • Figure 5.3: “Smart city” projects in Brazil
  • Figure 6.1: Leading smart grid vendors in Brazil
  • Table 6.1: Leading smart metering vendors in Brazil
  • Table 7.1: The next steps and necessary actions
  • Table 8.1: Domestic electricity sector vendors in Brazil

Companies covered in this report:

  • ABB (Sui)
  • AES (US)
  • Alstom (Fra)
  • BPL (Fra)
  • Celesc (Bra)
  • Cemar (Bra)
  • Cemig (Bra)
  • CESP (Bra)
  • Choice (Bra)
  • Copel (Bra)
  • CPFL (Bra)
  • CTEEP (Bra)
  • Echelon (US)
  • Ecil (Bra)
  • Eletra Energy (Bra)
  • Eletrobras (Bra)
  • Elipse (Bra)
  • ELO (Bra)
  • Elster (Ger)
  • Elucid (Bra)
  • eMeter (US)
  • Endesa (Esp)
  • Enel (lta)
  • EDP (Por)
  • Gamesa (EsP)
  • GDFSuez (Fra)
  • lberdrola (Esp)
  • IBM (US)
  • lmpSS (Arg)
  • ISA (Col)
  • ltron (US)
  • Landis + Gyr (Sui)
  • Light (Bra)
  • Logica (Ned)
  • Nansen (Bra)
  • Rede Energia (Bra)
  • S&C Electric (US)
  • Schneider Electric (Fra)
  • SEL (Ger)
  • Sensus (US)
  • Siemens (Ger)
  • silver Spring (US)
  • Telvent (Esp)
  • Terna (lta)
  • TIM (lta)
  • Tractebel Energia (Bra)
  • Treetech (Bra)
  • Trilliant (US)
  • V2Com (Bra)
  • Way2 (Bra)
  • Wobben (Ger)
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