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市場調査レポート

新興市場のスマートグリッド:見通し

Emerging Markets Smart Grid: Outlook 2016

発行 Northeast Group, LLC 商品コード 268977
出版日 ページ情報 英文 221 Pages
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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新興市場のスマートグリッド:見通し Emerging Markets Smart Grid: Outlook 2016
出版日: 2016年01月31日 ページ情報: 英文 221 Pages
概要

当レポートでは、新興市場のスマートグリッドの見通しについて調査分析し、世界の概要、新興市場の予測、ベンダー活動などを検証し、地域/国別の分析を提供し、新興市場におけるスマートグリッドの機会に焦点を当てています。

第1章 イントロダクション

第2章 世界の概要

  • 新興市場におけるスマートメーターの潜在性
  • 展開
  • 事業の促進要因
  • 規制の促進要因

第3章 新興市場のスマートグリッド市場予測

  • 予測のサマリー
  • 展開の前提条件
  • コストの前提条件
  • 先進国との比較

第4章 ベンダー活動

  • 主要なメーターハードウェアベンダー
  • 主要な通信ベンダー
  • 地方/その他のメータリングベンダー
  • 主要な配電自動化ベンダー

第5章 地域/国別の概要

第6章 BRICSおよびその他の地域

  • 中国
  • インド

第7章 中欧・東欧

  • ブルガリア
  • クロアチア
  • チェコ共和国
  • エストニア
  • ハンガリー
  • ラトビア
  • リトアニア
  • ポーランド
  • ルーマニア
  • スロバキア
  • スロベニア
  • トルコ

第8章 ユーラシア

  • カザフスタン
  • キルギス
  • ロシア
  • ウクライナ
  • ウズベキスタン

第9章 ラテンアメリカ

  • アルゼンチン
  • ブラジル
  • チリ
  • コロンビア
  • ドミニカ共和国
  • エクアドル
  • メキシコ
  • パラグアイ
  • ペルー
  • ウルグアイ
  • ベネズエラ

第10章 中東・北アフリカ

  • バーレーン
  • エジプト
  • イスラエル
  • ヨルダン
  • クウェート
  • レバノン
  • オマーン
  • カタール
  • サウジアラビア
  • アラブ首長国連邦

第11章 東南アジア

  • インドネシア
  • マレーシア
  • フィリピン
  • シンガポール
  • タイ
  • ベトナム

第12章 サハラ砂漠以南のアフリカ

  • ガーナ
  • ナイジェリア
  • 南アフリカ

第13章 付録

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目次

Northeast Group's Emerging Markets Smart Grid: Outlook 2016 is the fifth edition of its annual emerging markets smart grid overview. This study looks ahead over the next decade to project where smart grid investment will occur in developing countries. To-date, most smart grid investment has been concentrated in developed countries. This mainly includes countries in North America, Western Europe, and East Asia. These markets represent nearly 83% of the current installed base of smart meters and many of the pioneering distribution automation, analytics, home energy management, and other smart grid initiatives. But many countries in the rest of the developing world are positioning themselves to quickly catch up.

The 50 countries in this study have all begun to explore smart grid deployments, and in many cases have advanced regulatory frameworks and extensive pilot projects in place. With GDP growth rates more than double those in the developed world (4.8% per year from 2015 - 2019), these 50 countries will have the funds available to undertake significant grid modernizations.

Emerging market countries can reap immediate benefits from smart grid infrastructure investment. Many of these countries suffer from rampant non-technical losses - mostly due to electricity theft - that cost in aggregate $63.1 billion dollars each year in lost or unbilled revenue. Furthermore, all of the countries in this study face high rates of electricity demand growth, straining existing infrastructure, and worsening already unreliable electric grids.

The findings from this study show that 40% of the countries are already ready for significant investment in smart grid infrastructure. This means that they not only have welldeveloped regulatory frameworks, but also have the underlying market conditions (through high T&D loss rates, high electricity prices, and enough high-income residents) to justify smart meter deployments. Other smart grid initiatives will follow smart metering, with distribution automation the second largest overall segment ($49bn from 2016 to 2026).

In addition to regulatory frameworks and T&D loss rates, further key criteria for assessing smart grid potential include existing industry structures, current electricity prices (and whether or not they are subsidized), financing mechanisms, the potential for operational benefits, and other efficiencies. Of the 50 countries, almost all of the Central & Eastern European (CEE) countries studied meet these criteria, while some countries in Latin America, Middle East & North Africa, and Southeast Asia do as well. Meanwhile, the other countries in this study show the potential to progress quickly over the course of the coming decade.

Additionally, regional organizations and regional leaders will help drive progress across these emerging markets. The EU, ASEAN, and GCC have all been critical in facilitating smart grid cooperation, while countries such as Brazil, Singapore, and the United Arab Emirates already serve as regional leaders. As smart grid deployments are likely to show distinct characteristics in emerging markets that differ from existing deployments in developed countries, these regional leaders will be critical in developing models that can be used by countries with similar drivers and barriers.

Perhaps most significantly, 21 of the 50 countries in this study have some form of smart meter target. In the cases of CEE countries such as Estonia, this is already leading to large-scale deployments and full smart meter penetration can be expected in the near term. In other countries, the targets serve as guides or only mandate deployments to high-consumption residents. In all cases though, these targets are pushing regulators to adopt complimentary regulations that will drive the smart grid market. Additionally, smart meter pilots have already begun in many of the other countries where there are not yet targets. As a result, the overall smart meter penetration rate for the 50 countries in this study is expected to reach 61% by 2026.

Key questions answered in this study:

  • What are the key themes for the global smart grid market in 2016?
  • What smart grid activity took place in emerging markets in 2015 and what is expected for 2016?
  • What is the forecast market for AMI, distribution automation, wide area measurement, home energy management, and IT in each emerging market region?
  • How do emerging markets compare to developed countries in forecast deployments?
  • Which countries were most active in developing smart grid-related policies and which countries took a step back?
  • Who were the leading international vendors in emerging markets in 2015? What is their market share in emerging markets? Who are the most important local vendors?
  • Which emerging markets countries have the most developed smart grid regulatory frameworks?
  • Which of these 50 countries have the potential to reap the most direct benefits from smart meter deployments?

Table of Contents

  • i. Executive Summary
  • ii. Themes for 2016
    • ii.i Theme 1: Smart meter roadmaps are now materializing into tenders
    • ii.ii Theme 2: Lower GDP growth rates are diminishing some long-term potential
    • ii.iii Theme 3: Chinese vendors are becoming increasing active in AMI markets
    • ii.iv Update on 2015 themes
  • iii. Methodology

1. Introduction

2. Global overview

  • 2.1. Smart meter potential in emerging markets
  • 2.2. Developments in 2015
  • 2.3. Business case drivers
  • 2.4. Regulatory drivers

3. Emerging markets smart grid market forecast

4. Vendor activity

  • 4.1. Leading meter hardware vendors
  • 4.2. Leading communications-only vendors
  • 4.3. Local and other metering vendors
  • 4.4. Leading distribution automation vendors

5. Regional and country summaries

6. BRICS

  • 6.1. China
  • 6.2. India

7. Central & Eastern Europe

  • 7.1. Bulgaria
  • 7.2. Croatia
  • 7.3. Czech Republic
  • 7.4. Estonia
  • 7.5. Hungary
  • 7.6. Latvia
  • 7.7. Lithuania
  • 7.8. Poland
  • 7.9. Romania
  • 7.10. Slovakia
  • 7.11. Slovenia
  • 7.12. Turkey

8. Eurasia

  • 8.1. Kazakhstan
  • 8.2. Kyrgyzstan
  • 8.3. Russia
  • 8.4. Ukraine
  • 8.5. Uzbekistan

9. Latin America

  • 9.1. Argentina
  • 9.2. Brazil
  • 9.3. Chile
  • 9.4. Colombia
  • 9.5. Dominican Republic
  • 9.6. Ecuador
  • 9.7. Mexico
  • 9.8. Paraguay
  • 9.9. Peru
  • 9.10. Uruguay
  • 9.11. Venezuela

10. Middle East & North Africa

  • 10.1. Bahrain
  • 10.2. Egypt
  • 10.3. Israel
  • 10.4. Jordan
  • 10.5. Kuwait
  • 10.6. Lebanon
  • 10.7. Oman
  • 10.8. Qatar
  • 10.9. Saudi Arabia
  • 10.10. United Arab Emirates

11. Southeast Asia

  • 11.1. Indonesia
  • 11.2. Malaysia
  • 11.3. Philippines
  • 11.4. Singapore
  • 11.5. Sri Lanka
  • 11.6. Thailand
  • 11.7. Vietnam

12. Sub-Saharan Africa

  • 12.1. Ghana
  • 12.2. Nigeria
  • 12.3. South Africa

13. Appendix

  • 13.1. List of abbreviations and acronyms
  • 13.2. List of companies mentioned in this report

List of Figures, Boxes and Tables

  • Emerging markets smart grid: key takeaways
  • Emerging markets smart meter potential
  • Notable emerging market AMI tenders in 2015
  • Key smart meter tenders and announcements in emerging markets
  • GDP growth projections for 50 emerging market countries
  • Electricity meter market growth in emerging markets
  • Chinese vendor AMI activity
  • Comparison of China with other emerging market regions in AMI growth
  • Update on 2015 themes
  • Northeast Group smart grid forecasting model
  • Figure 1.1: Smart grid value chain
  • Figure 1.2: Smart grid model highlighting focus in emerging markets
  • Figure 2.1: Global smart grid activity
  • Figure 2.2: Smart grid regulatory country index
  • Figure 2.3: Smart grid potential benefit country index
  • Figure 2.4: Emerging markets smart meter potential
  • Table 2.1: Biggest shifts in regulatory framework score
  • Table 2.2: Biggest shifts in potential benefit score
  • Figure 2.5: Biggest positive movers in smart meter potential
  • Figure 2.6: Largest installed base of AMI meters
  • Figure 2.7: Notable smart meter activity in 2015
  • Figure 2.8: Average electricity prices by region
  • Figure 2.9: Annual GDP growth (2015 - 2019)
  • Figure 2.10: Global T&D losses
  • Figure 2.11: Per-capita electricity consumption
  • Figure 2.12: T&D losses by % and dollars lost
  • Figure 2.13: Annual electricity demand growth
  • Figure 2.14: Typical number of outages per month (SAIFI)
  • Figure 2.15: Typical duration of outages per month (SAIDI)
  • Figure 2.16: Smart meter targets in emerging markets
  • Table 2.3: Smart meter funding mechanisms
  • Table 2.4: Outside smart grid funding bodies
  • Table 2.5: Smart meter interoperability standards in Europe
  • Table 2.6: Electricity network spending in emerging markets (2014 - 2020)
  • Figure 2.17: CO2 emissions targets in emerging markets
  • Figure 2.18: Renewable energy incentives in emerging markets
  • Table 2.7: Types of electric vehicle incentives
  • Figure 3.1: Emerging markets smart grid forecast by region
  • Table 3.1: Emerging markets smart grid forecast by region
  • Figure 3.2: Regional electricity meter market sizes in 2016
  • Figure 3.3: Regional electricity meter market sizes in 2026
  • Figure 3.4: Smart meter deployments in emerging markets by communications
  • Table 3.2: Emerging markets smart grid forecast by segment
  • Figure 3.5: Emerging markets smart grid forecast by segment
  • Table 3.3: Emerging markets distribution automation forecast
  • Figure 3.6: Emerging markets distribution automation forecast
  • Figure 3.7: Global AMI forecast comparison
  • Figure 3.8: Global smart grid forecast comparison
  • Figure 4.1: Market share of leading vendors in 49 emerging markets
  • Table 4.1: Leading international smart meter hardware vendors
  • Table 4.2: Leading Chinese meter vendors
  • Table 4.3: Leading communications-only vendors
  • Table 4.4: Additional hardware vendors active in emerging market smart meter projects
  • Figure 4.2: Market share of leading vendors in BRICS
  • Figure 4.3: Market share of leading vendors in Central & Eastern Europe
  • Figure 4.4: Market share of leading vendors in Eurasia
  • Figure 4.5: Market share of leading vendors in Latin America
  • Figure 4.6: Market share of leading vendors in Middle East/North Africa
  • Figure 4.7: Market share of leading vendors in Southeast Asia
  • Figure 4.8: Market share of leading vendors in Sub-Saharan Africa
  • Figure 6.1: Smart meter potential in BRICS
  • Figure 6.2: Average electricity prices by region
  • Figure 6.3: Annual GDP growth (2015 - 2019)
  • Figure 6.4: Global T&D losses
  • Figure 6.5: Per-capita electricity consumption
  • Figure 6.6: Market share of leading vendors in BRICS
  • Figure 7.1: Smart meter potential in Central & Eastern Europe
  • Figure 7.2: Average electricity prices by region
  • Figure 7.3: Annual GDP growth (2015 - 2019)
  • Figure 7.4: Global T&D losses
  • Figure 7.5: Per-capita electricity consumption
  • Figure 7.6: Market share of leading vendors in Central & Eastern Europe
  • Figure 8.1: Smart meter potential in Eurasia
  • Figure 8.2: Average electricity prices by region
  • Figure 8.3: Annual GDP growth (2015 - 2019)
  • Figure 8.4: Global T&D losses
  • Figure 8.5: Per-capita electricity consumption
  • Figure 8.6: Market share of leading vendors in Eurasia
  • Figure 9.1: Smart meter potential in Latin America
  • Figure 9.2: Average electricity prices by region
  • Figure 9.3: Annual GDP growth (2015 - 2019)
  • Figure 9.4: Global T&D losses
  • Figure 9.5: Per-capita electricity consumption
  • Figure 9.6: Market share of leading vendors in Latin America
  • Figure 10.1: Smart meter potential in Middle East & North Africa
  • Figure 10.2: Average electricity prices by region
  • Figure 10.3: Annual GDP growth (2015 - 2019)
  • Figure 10.4: Global T&D losses
  • Figure 10.5: Per-capita electricity consumption
  • Figure 10.6: Market share of leading vendors in Middle East & North Africa
  • Figure 11.1: Smart meter potential in Southeast Asia
  • Figure 11.2: Average electricity prices by region
  • Figure 11.3: Annual GDP growth (2015 - 2019)
  • Figure 11.4: Global T&D losses
  • Figure 11.5: Per-capita electricity consumption
  • Figure 11.6: Market share of leading vendors in Southeast Asia
  • Figure 12.1: Smart meter potential in Sub-Saharan Africa
  • Figure 12.2: Average electricity prices by region
  • Figure 12.3: Annual GDP growth (2015 - 2019)
  • Figure 12.4: Global T&D losses
  • Figure 12.5: Per-capita electricity consumption
  • Figure 12.6: Market share of leading vendors in Sub-Saharan Africa

In addition to the figures and tables shown above, each country summary includes the following:

  • Table: Industry structure;
  • Table: Regulatory framework;
  • Chart: Regional smart meter potential;
  • Chart: Regional electricity consumption per capita (kWh);
  • Chart: Regional electricity prices (cents per kWh);
  • Chart: Regional T&D losses (%).

Therefore, this study includes an additional 128 unique charts and tables in addition to those cited above.

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