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自動車の電化・運転の自動化に対するCOVID-19 (新型コロナウイルス感染症) の影響の評価

Assessing the Coronavirus Impact on Automotive Electrification and Drive Automation

発行 Guidehouse Insights (formerly Navigant Research) 商品コード 934290
出版日 ページ情報 英文 17 Pages; 6 Tables, Charts & Figures
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自動車の電化・運転の自動化に対するCOVID-19 (新型コロナウイルス感染症) の影響の評価 Assessing the Coronavirus Impact on Automotive Electrification and Drive Automation
出版日: 2020年04月30日 ページ情報: 英文 17 Pages; 6 Tables, Charts & Figures
概要

2020年の初めに、世界経済はこれまでの経験とは異なる事象に苦しめられました。中国における2019年12月のCOVID-19 (新型コロナウイルス感染症) は世界中に広がり、業界全体が数週間でシャットダウンしました。人々は、自粛を命じられ、商業は食料や医薬品などの必需品に限られています。失業が急増し、旅行が制限されているため、仕事のない企業の多くは完全に回復することはなく、輸送などの部門では、2007年~2009年の景気後退の影響に迫るか、それ以上になる可能性があります。

当レポートでは、COVID-19が世界の自動車市場に与える潜在的な影響について調査分析し、全体的な車両販売、EV販売、レベル4以上の自動運転車両の展開に関する予測分析について、体系的な情報を提供しています。

目次

序文

背景

提言

世界のパンデミックに対応した車両販売予測の再評価

  • これまでの経過

次に何が起こるか

  • 不況への対処
  • 走行マイルが少ない
  • モードをシフト
  • 少ないディーゼルエンジンの生産
  • 回復の優先順位付け

自動車業界の製品計画に対するCOVID-19の影響

  • 電化と自動化は、市場回復の二の次に

提言

  • 低排出・ゼロエミッション技術への増資
  • 排出量規制の拡大計画
  • 配送をサポートする商用車へのニーズの増加
  • 電動化と自動運転の間の投資バランスを再考
  • 国民の信頼を回復する試み
図表

LIST OF CHARTS AND FIGURES

  • Consumer and Commercial Vehicle Sales, World Markets: 2005-2019
  • Modeled Modal Transportation Demand by Region, World Markets: 2019
  • Change in Global Diesel Engine Production vs. Vehicle Sales: 2016-2018
  • Vehicle Sales Forecast Pre- and Post-COVID-19, World Markets: 2005-2030
  • Hybrid + EV + Fuel Cell Share Forecast Changes, World Markets: 2005-2025
  • Annual Light Duty Automated Driving by Use Case: 2020-2030
目次
Product Code: AI-CFU-20

The beginning of 2020 has seen the global economy afflicted by an event unlike anything experienced in recent times. The December 2019 emergence of COVID-19 in China has spread across the globe, causing entire industries to shut down in a matter of weeks. Populations are being ordered to self-quarantine and commerce is limited to essentials such as food and medicine. Many of the idled businesses may never fully recover and sectors such as transportation will likely see an impact approaching or even exceeding that of the 2007-2009 recession as unemployment skyrockets and travel is restricted.

For the automotive sector, the impacts are expected to be far-reaching. COVID-19 is likely to not only lead to poor economic conditions for vehicle sales but also have sustained impacts on trends in telecommuting and online retail that may increase consumer trends to abandon individual vehicle ownership. With cash tight, oil prices low, and governments looking to recover productive capacity, the market will likely turn back to familiar options initially. However, as the economy recovers, governments are likely to increase pressure on tailpipe regulations, improving conditions for EVs in the long-term.

This Analyst Insight report from Guidehouse Insights discusses the potential impact of COVID-19 on the global automotive market, providing forecast analysis on overall vehicle sales, EV sales, and Level 4+ automated vehicle deployments. This report also updates Guidehouse Insights' latest forecast model for vehicle sales with an eye toward factoring in the potential economic and social impacts of the coronavirus and the COVID-19 disease it causes. It also provides recommendations for automotive sector stakeholders.

KEY QUESTIONS ADDRESSED:

  • What is the impact of the global COVID-19 pandemic on vehicle sales forecasts?
  • What are some of the potential near-term impacts on the transportation sector of shuttering much of the global economy?
  • What societal behavioral shifts might become permanent, such as remote work, and how might that affect transportation use?
  • What are the possible transportation modal shifts that occur in the wake of a global pandemic?
  • How does the transportation industry need to reprioritize future investments during a protracted recovery from a deep recession?

WHO NEEDS THIS REPORT:

  • Automakers
  • Automotive suppliers
  • Automotive retailers
  • Federal and state policymakers
  • Transportation policymakers
  • Advanced transportation advocates
  • Transportation electrification groups
  • Financial institutions
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

Spark

Context

Recommendations

Reevaluating Vehicle Sales Forecasts in the Wake of a Global Pandemic

  • What Has Happened So Far?

What Comes Next?

  • Dealing with Recession
  • Fewer Vehicle Miles Traveled
  • Shifting Modes
  • Producing Fewer Diesel Engines
  • Prioritizing Recovery

What Does COVID-19 Mean for Auto Industry Product Plans?

  • Electrification and Automation Take a Backseat in the Market Recovery

What Do We Recommend?

  • Increase Investment in Low and Zero Emissions Technologies
  • Plan for Expanded Regulations on Emissions
  • Look for an Increase in the Need for Commercial Vehicles that Support Deliveries
  • Reconsider the Investment Balance Between Electrification and Automated Driving
  • Attempt to Recover Public Trust