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急速に変化するEV市場におけるバッテリー交換の新たな機会

Emerging Opportunities for Battery Swapping in a Fast-Changing EV Market

発行 Navigant Research 商品コード 926259
出版日 ページ情報 英文 15 Pages; 5 Tables, Charts & Figures
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急速に変化するEV市場におけるバッテリー交換の新たな機会 Emerging Opportunities for Battery Swapping in a Fast-Changing EV Market
出版日: 2020年02月20日 ページ情報: 英文 15 Pages; 5 Tables, Charts & Figures
概要

当レポートでは、バッテリー交換の推進を目指す組織が直面する課題と機会について調査し、現在、バッテリー交換が広く利用出来ない理由、バッテリー交換の促進に最も適した車両セグメント、バッテリー交換がユーティリティ負荷の形成に及ぼす影響、特に使用比率の高い地域に置いて、バッテリー交換がユーティリティのビジネスモデルに及ぼす影響などについて分析しています。

提言

過去のバッテリー交換産業の低迷は、将来の機会を反映していない

  • 悪いスタートはバッテリー交換技術の悪い終わりではない
  • パイロット試験の第二の波は小型車両をターゲットに
  • 競争の激しい中国市場における小型EVメーカーは差別化を模索
  • その他の開発は、さらに多くのパイロットプログラムへの取り組みを提案

現在の充電技術に対するバッテリー交換の利点は魅力的であるものの、その課題は大きい

  • バッテリー交換により、バッテリーヘルス・ライフサイクルの可視性が向上
  • 技術は、拡張されたVGIの利点も提供
  • バッテリー交換により、送配電のアップグレードが遅れる可能性
  • バッテリーの標準化が大きなハードルとして浮上
  • コストと信頼性は重要な懸念事項を提示

バッテリーの交換の機会は、車両のエネルギー需要が最も少ない場合に最適

  • マイクロモビリティプロバイダーは、電気スクーター、人力車、低速車両などの小型EVを使用したバッテリー交換パイロットプロジェクトを検討する必要がある
  • 差別化は高速道路対応電気の機会を示す
  • 充電サービス企業は、バッテリー交換がビジネスモデルにどのように適合するかを決定する必要がある
  • ユーティリティは二次電池市場を調査すべき
図表

List of Charts and Figures

  • Electric Two-Wheel Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2019-2030
  • NIO Battery-Swap Station at the 2019 Shanghai Auto Show
  • BAIC Battery-Swap Demonstration at the 2018 Guangzhou Auto Show
  • LED BEV Battery Pack Price Actual and Projections, World Markets: 2010-2030
  • Example Skateboard Designs
目次
Product Code: SI-BATSW-20

Initial battery-swapping efforts during the early 2010s sought to allow battery EV (BEV) owners to quickly replace batteries, offering drivers practically unlimited driving range. However, the high cost of batteries and low number of vehicles that could access swap stations contributed to market failure. Considering current efforts by automakers and ridesharing companies, the 2010 battery-swapping approach might have been the right move at the wrong time.

Renewed interest in battery swapping has coincided with dramatic decreases in battery costs per kilowatt-hour and rapid growth in the EV market. In addition, CO emissions concerns and urban air pollution have helped bring focus to EV use, specifically in urban areas. These dynamics have provided opportunities for battery-swapping niches to emerge.

This Navigant Research, a Guidehouse company, ‘Strategy Insight ’ report gives an overview of the challenges and opportunities currently faced by organizations seeking to promote battery-swapping. It identifies market segments that offer the best prospects for fostering the nascent battery-swapping market and recommendations for decision makers. This report's findings are especially relevant to fleet managers and utility decision makers who need to determine whether battery swapping makes sense for their organizations.

Key Questions Addressed:

  • Why did battery swapping fail during a major push in the early 2010s?
  • Why is battery swapping not commonly available now?
  • Which vehicle segments are most suitable to foster battery swapping?
  • How will battery swapping likely affect utility load shapes?
  • In what ways can battery swapping affect utility business models, specifically in areas with time of use rates?
  • How can fleet managers leverage battery swapping to add value to their organizations?
  • Which types of organizations should consider partnerships to take advantage of battery-swapping opportunities?

Who Needs This Report:

  • Fleet managers
  • Utility executives
  • Automobile and bus manufacturers
  • Charging station operators
  • Two-wheel and three-wheel vehicle manufacturers
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

Spark

Context

Recommendations

The Past Lackluster Performance of the Battery-Swapping Industry Does Not Reflect Future Opportunities

  • A Bad Start Is Not a Bad Ending for Battery-Swapping Technology
  • Second-Wave Pilots Target Light Vehicles
  • Light Duty EV Makers in Highly Competitive China Seek Differentiation
  • Other Developments Suggest More Pilots Programs to Come

The Advantages of Battery Swapping over Current Charging Technologies Are Enticing, But Its Challenges Are Significant

  • Battery Swapping Offers Greater Visibility into Battery Health and Life Cycle
  • The Technology Also Offers Expanded VGI Benefits
  • Battery Swapping Could Defer Transmission and Distribution Upgrades
  • Battery Standardization Looms as a Major Hurdle
  • Cost and Reliability Pose Significant Concerns

The Opportunities for Battery Swapping Are Best Where Vehicle Energy Needs Are Least

  • Micromobility Providers Should Consider Battery-Swap Pilot Projects with Light EVs: E-scooters, Rickshaws, and Low Speed Vehicles
  • Differentiation Represents an Opportunity for Highway-Capable Electrics
  • Charging Service Companies Need to Decide How Battery Swapping Fits into Business Models
  • Utilities Should Investigate Secondary Battery Markets