商用車の電化：プラグインハイブリッドおよびバッテリー式電動小型商用車 - 世界市場の分析と予測

当レポートでは、世界の小型商用車 (LCV) 市場における電気パワートレイン (PHEVおよびBEV) 別の分析、市場の成長要因、機会、課題、および主な市場要因などを提供しています。また、世界における車両販売を2030年まで予測しており、パワートレインと地域ごとに分類しています。さらに、充電インフラ、競合する代替燃料、主要な市場参加者を取り巻く主要技術についても調査を行っています。

第1章 エグゼクティブサマリー

第2章 市場課題

• イントロダクション
• 範囲
• 技術
  • パワートレイン
    • ハイブリッド
    • PHEV
    • BEV
• 市場成長の促進要因
  • バッテリー価格の下落
  • 政府イニシアチブ
  • 効率基準
  • 大気質基準
  • 低いTCO
  • 石油・炭素価格
• 市場課題
  • 車両要件・コスト
  • インフラ
  • 競合する代替燃料

第3章 主要企業

• イントロダクション
• 主要OEM
  • Ford Motor Company
  • General Motors
  • 日産自動車
  • Rivian
• 商用車の用途
  • StreetScooter
  • VIA Motors
  • Workhorse Group
  • XL Fleet

第4章 市場予測

• 調査手法
  • バッテリー価格
  • 石油価格
  • シナリオ
• 市場予測
  • LCV売上
  • PEV LCV売上
  • PEV LCV売上：パワートレイン別
  • PHEV LCV売上
  • バッテリー式電動LCV売上
• 結論・提言

第5章 頭字語・略語リスト

第6章 目次

第7章 図表

第8章 調査範囲・ソース・手法・注記

List of Charts and Figures

• LCV Sales, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2030
• LCV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2030
• PEV LCV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2030
• PEV LCV Sales by Powertrain, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2030
• PHEV LCV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2030
• BEV LCV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2030
• LCV Data Analysis Geographic Detail
• Enacted Emissions and Fuel Efficiency Targets for Light Trucks
• Energy Costs per Mile for Electric and Gasoline-Fueled Vehicles
• Monthly LCFS Credit Price and Transaction Volume, California LCFS: 2013-2019

List of Tables

• LDV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2030
• LCV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2030
• PEV LCV Sales by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2030
• PEV LCV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2030
• PEV LCV Sales by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2030
• PHEV LCV Sales by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2030
• PHEV LCV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2030
• PHEV LCV Sales by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2030
• BEV LCV Sales by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2030
• BEV LCV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2030
• BEV LCV Sales by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2030
• Dimensions of Analysis
• Vehicle Weight (or Length) by Category in Key Countries/Regions
• Common LCV Types and Use Cases
• Electrified LCV Market Comparison Estimates
• North American Incentives Programs
• European Incentive Programs
• Purchase Subsidies Requirement Changes for Commercial LD NEVs, China: 2018-2019
• Notable Targets and Mandates to Reduce ICEVs
• TCO Estimate Between a Diesel and Battery Electric Passenger Van: 2018 vs. 2030
• Summary of Market Participants

In the light-duty (LD) commercial vehicle (LCV) segment, internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) are the leading powertrain. However, electric drive technologies, such as hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and battery EVs are quickly closing the gap and becoming more competitive. The cost of electrified LCVs are falling due to improvements in battery technology and market maturity. Governments at all levels are supporting an electric transition to meet fuel efficiency and emissions regulations. Adoption of electric LCVs is expected to continue to rise as upfront vehicle costs fall, vehicle economics improve, and governments continue to place importance on the reduction of greenhouse gas and other emission pollutants that contribute to poor air quality.

In the near term, fleets and consumers can take advantage of government incentives to help bring electric LCV purchase price toward parity with their ICE counterparts. Fleets and manufacturers can use these LCVs across use segments to achieve emissions and air quality targets, while improving their bottom line via reduced fuel, operations, and maintenance costs.

This report from Navigant Research, a Guidehouse company, analyzes the global LCV market across electric powertrains (plug-in hybrid and battery electric) by region. The study provides an analysis of the market issues, including opportunities, implementation challenges, and prominent market factors associated with the LCV market segment. Global market forecasts for vehicle populations and sales are broken out by powertrain and region and extend through 2030. The report also examines the key technologies surrounding charging infrastructure, competitive alternative fuels, and key market participants.

Key Questions Addressed:

• What is the state of the market for electrified light-duty commercial vehicles (LCVs)?

• How will factors such as energy prices, battery trends, emissions, and air quality standards affect the global LCV market?

• Why will a growing number of LCVs be electric?

• What are key barriers to electrification and market growth?

• What are often-overlooked considerations when fleets electrify?

• How can fleets best realize improvements in the total cost of ownership?

• Which segments are growing fastest and why?

• Which alternative fuels have the most potential to disrupt the market?

Who Needs This Report:

• Vehicle OEMs and Tier 1 Suppliers
• Fleet managers
• Light duty government fleets
• Private transportation companies
• Electric vehicle charging companies
• Local, regional, and central government agencies
• Utilities
• Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

• 1.1. Introduction
• 1.2. Market Forecast

2. Market Issues

• 2.1. Introduction
• 2.2. Scope
• 2.3. Technologies
  • 2.3.1. Powertrains
    • 2.3.1.1. Hybrid
    • 2.3.1.2. PHEV
    • 2.3.1.3. BEV
• 2.4. Market Drivers
  • 2.4.1. Declining Battery Prices
  • 2.4.2. Government Incentives
    • 2.4.2.1. North America
    • 2.4.2.2. Europe
    • 2.4.2.3. China
  • 2.4.3. Efficiency Standards
  • 2.4.4. Ambient Air Quality
  • 2.4.5. Lower TCO
    • 2.4.5.1. Maintenance
    • 2.4.5.2. Cost of Energy
  • 2.4.6. Oil and Carbon Prices
    • 2.4.6.1. Vehicle-to-Grid Integration
    • 2.4.6.2. Charging Types
• 2.5. Market Challenges
  • 2.5.1. Vehicle Requirements and Costs
  • 2.5.2. Infrastructure
  • 2.5.3. Competing Fuel Alternatives
    • 2.5.3.1. Renewable Diesel
    • 2.5.3.2. Propane Autogas
    • 2.5.3.3. Natural Gas

3. Key Industry Players

• 3.1. Introduction
• 3.2. Major OEMs
  • 3.2.1. Ford Motor Company
  • 3.2.2. General Motors
  • 3.2.3. Nissan Motor Company, Ltd.
  • 3.2.4. Rivian
• 3.3. Commercial Vehicle Applications
  • 3.3.1. StreetScooter
  • 3.3.2. VIA Motors
  • 3.3.3. Workhorse Group
  • 3.3.4. XL Fleet

4. Market Forecasts

• 4.1. Methodology
  • 4.1.1. Battery Prices
  • 4.1.2. Oil Prices
  • 4.1.3. Scenarios
• 4.2. Market Forecasts
  • 4.2.1. LCV Sales
  • 4.2.2. PEV LCV Sales
  • 4.2.3. PEV LCV Sales by Powertrain
  • 4.2.4. PHEV LCV Sales
  • 4.2.5. Battery Electric LCV Sales
• 4.3. Conclusions and Recommendations
  • 4.3.1. Recommendations for Industry
  • 4.3.2. Recommendations for Fleets
  • 4.3.3. Recommendations for Governments

5. Acronym and Abbreviation List

6. Table of Contents

7. Table of Charts and Figures

8. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes