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デジタル通貨マイニング市場の展望:ユーティリティ事業者およびハードウェアサプライヤーの将来設計

Utilities and Hardware Suppliers Should Plan for a Future Without Digital Currency Mining

発行 Navigant Research 商品コード 813703
出版日 ページ情報 英文 22 Pages; 11 Tables, Charts & Figures
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デジタル通貨マイニング市場の展望:ユーティリティ事業者およびハードウェアサプライヤーの将来設計 Utilities and Hardware Suppliers Should Plan for a Future Without Digital Currency Mining
出版日: 2019年03月26日 ページ情報: 英文 22 Pages; 11 Tables, Charts & Figures
概要

デジタル通貨マイニングの市場は、技術的変化やその他の要因により、今後10年間で縮小する可能性が高いとされています。

当レポートでは、デジタル通貨マイニング市場の展望を複数の成長シナリオから検証し、デジタル通貨マイニングおよびPOW (Proof of Work) の概要、POWコンセンサスアルゴリズムによる電力消費の増大、デジタル通貨マイニング市場の将来の不透明性・不確定性、ユーティリティ事業者およびハードウェアサプライヤーの将来の成長に向けて取るべき準備・対策などをまとめています。

目次

  • 提言
  • POW (Proof of Work):エネルギー集約型コンセンサスアルゴリズム
    • コンセンサスアルゴリズムと分散型ネットワーク
    • POW:報酬のための電力投資をノードを強いる
      • マイニングノード:取引のバリデーション・ブロックへのグループ化
      • マイニングノード:ブロックを分散型台帳に加える権利を争う
      • ネットワーク:詐欺取引や改ざんデータを含むブロックを却下
    • POWによるコンセンサス解決の重要性
  • 急激な負荷増大をもたらしたデジタル通貨の高い評価
    • 電力消費の拡大とフィードバックループ
  • デジタル通貨マイニングの非従来型負荷特性
    • 電力コストと運用コスト
    • デジタル通貨マイナーと電力コスト縮小のインセンティブ
    • デジタル通貨マイナー:従来の産業顧客と比べて非安定的
  • デジタル通貨マイニング:不透明な将来性
    • 縮小傾向のデジタル通貨マイニング市場
    • 電力消費成長への影響因子
      • かつてデジタル通貨マイニングを奨励した法規制:現在は撤廃傾向に
      • POW:すでに遅れた技術に
  • ユーティリティ事業者:いくつかの将来のシナリオを用意すべき
    • ユーティリティ事業者:パニックにならず冷静に対策を
      • ハードウェアサプライヤー:新たな成長市場を模索すべき
      • ユーティリティ事業者:デジタル通貨マイニングの新規インフラ投資は回避すべき投資家・パートナー:グリーンウォッシングに警戒すべき
      • デジタル通貨マイナー:バックアッププランが必要
      • ブロックチェーン技術・デジタル通貨:分離して考えられるべき
図表

List of Charts and Figures

  • Monthly Revenue Potential, Bitcoin Network: January 2015-December 2018
  • Online Computing Power and Proof of Work Difficulty, Bitcoin Network: January 2015-December 2018
  • Estimated Historical Electricity Consumption, Bitcoin Network: 2015-2018
  • The Antminer S-9, a Dedicated Digital Currency Mining Node
  • Regional Vulnerability to Digital Currency Mining, Europe
  • Regional Vulnerability to Digital Currency Mining, US
  • NordCoin Module with Integrated Digital Currency Mining Hardware and Cooling Systems
  • Dollar Value of Bitcoin by Growth Scenario, Bitcoin Network: 2019-2028
  • Revenue Potential Growth Scenarios, Bitcoin Network: 2019-2028
  • Bitcoin Mining Electricity Consumption Scenarios, Bitcoin Network: 2014-2028

List of Tables

  • Bitcoin Mining Block Reward Schedule: 2008-2024 (Approximate)
目次
Product Code: SI-POWR-19

Digital currencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum experienced a surge in valuation in 2017 and 2018. The extraordinary revenue potential associated with digitally mining these currencies led to the growth of a new and unprecedented industry with a prevailing incentive to minimize electricity costs. With surprising rapidity, digital currency miners built large data centers full of power-hungry devices solely focused on performing calculations specified by Bitcoin's proof of work consensus algorithm.

The new industry had a marked impact on a handful of utility systems, as large-scale operations were established in cool regions with low average electricity prices. High electricity demand strained existing infrastructure and exposed vulnerabilities in these systems. The rise and fall of the digital currency mining industry contains lessons for utilities, which must make resource allocation decisions on a longtime horizon, and hardware suppliers and manufacturers, which must recognize that the digital currency market is time-limited and likely unsustainable. According to Navigant Research, the market for digital currency mining is likely to decline over the next 10 years due to technological shifts and other factors.

This Navigant Research report analyzes the drivers of the digital currency market, including utility systems most heavily affected by its growth. The study forecasts five scenarios for the growth of the digital currency mining market from 2019 to 2028 in terms of potential revenue and electricity consumption. The report examines the key factors that make low or negative growth scenarios most probable and makes recommendations for both utilities and hardware suppliers.

Key Questions Addressed:

  • What is digital currency mining, and what is proof of work?
  • What are the incentive structures and principles that led to rapid and unconventional load growth?
  • Why was the digital currency mining industry particularly challenging for utilities and regulators?
  • Will the digital currency mining market experience similar growth in the future?
  • What are the characteristics of utilities most heavily affected by digital currency mining?
  • What are the implications of digital currency mining for the wider energy blockchain industry?

Who Needs This Report:

  • Central processing unit (CPU) manufacturers
  • Graphical processing unit (GPU) manufacturers
  • Digital currency mining hardware manufacturers
  • Distribution utilities
  • Public utility commissions
  • Resource planners
  • Investor community

Table Of Contents

  • Spark
  • Context
  • Recommendations
  • Proof of Work Is an Energy-Intensive Consensus Algorithm
    • Consensus Algorithms Keep Decentralized Networks on the Same Page
    • Proof of Work Requires Nodes to Invest Power for a Chance at Reward
      • Mining Nodes Validate Transactions and Group Them Into Blocks
      • Mining Nodes Compete for the Right to Add Their Block to the Distributed Ledger
      • The Network Will Reject Blocks That Include Fraudulent Transactions or Manipulated Data
    • Why Solve Consensus with Proof of Work?
  • High Digital Currency Valuation Caused Rapid Load Growth
    • Increasing Electricity Consumption Creates a Feedback Loop
  • Digital Currency Mining Has Unconventional Load Characteristics
    • Electricity Costs Are a Disproportionately High Fraction of Operating Costs
    • Digital Currency Miners Have a Prevailing Incentive to Minimize Electricity Costs
    • Digital Currency Miners Are Highly Mobile Relative to Traditional Industrial Customers
  • Digital Currency Mining Has an Uncertain Future
    • The Market for Digital Currency Mining Is Likely to Shrink
    • A Range of Factors Influence Growth in Electricity Consumption
      • Regulations That Once Encouraged Digital Currency Mining Are Being Withdrawn
      • Proof of Work Is Already an Outdated Technology
  • Utilities Must Prepare for a Range of Future Scenarios
    • Utilities Should Not Panic
    • But They Must Be Prepared
      • Hardware Suppliers Must Look to New Markets for Growth
      • Utilities Must Not Invest in New Infrastructure to Support Digital Currency Mining
      • Investors and Partners Must Be Wary of Greenwashing
      • Digital Currency Miners Need a Backup Plan
      • Blockchain Technology and Digital Currencies Must Be Viewed Separately
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