電動トラック・バスの世界市場分析・予測：ハイブリッド、プラグインハイブリッド、電気、および燃料電池パワートレイン搭載の中型・大型トラック・バス

世界における電動中型・大型車両 (eMHDV) の販売台数は、2030年までに9%増加すると見込まれています。

当レポートでは、世界の電動トラック・バス市場について、パワートレイン (ハイブリッド・プラグインハイブリッド・電気・燃料電池) に注目して分析しており、市場課題の分析、パワートレイン・パワートレイン燃料構造・車両タイプ・地域・シナリオ別による車両保有台数・販売台数の予測、主要技術などについてまとめています。

第1章 エグゼクティブサマリー

第2章 市場課題

• イントロダクション
• 調査範囲
  • ハイブリッド
  • プラグインハイブリッド
  • 電気
  • 燃料電池
• 市場成長促進要因
  • バッテリーコストの予測
  • エネルギー
  • 省エネ基準
• 市場課題
  • インフラ
  • その他の競合代替燃料

第3章 主要企業

第4章 市場予測

• イントロダクション
• 予測手法
  • 車両保有台数
  • 車両販売台数
  • PFC区分
• 自動車市場
  • トラック
  • バス
• 保守的シナリオ
• 積極的シナリオ
• AFV
• 結論・提言

第5章 頭字語・略語一覧

第6章 目次

第7章 図表一覧

第8章 分析範囲、情報源、分析手法、注記

List of Charts and Figures

• Annual eMHDV Sales by Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
• Annual AFV Sales by Powertrain, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
• MHD Truck Population by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
• MHD Bus Population by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
• Annual MHDV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
• Annual Electric Drive Truck Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
• Annual Electric Drive Truck Sales by Powertrain, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
• Annual Electric Drive Bus Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
• Annual Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
• Gap between Base and Conservative Forecasts, World Markets: 2018-2030
• Gap between Base and Aggressive Forecasts, World Markets: 2018-2030
• Annual Vehicle Sales Market Share by PFC, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
• Geographic Detail
• MHDV Fuel Efficiency Standards, World Markets: 2000-2035

List of Tables

• Annual eMHDV Sales by Region and Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
• Annual eMHDV Sales by Powertrain and Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
• Annual eMHDV Sales by Vehicle Type and Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
• eMHDV Population by Region and Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
• eMHDV Population by Powertrain and Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
• eMHDV Population by Vehicle Type and Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
• Electric Drive Truck Population by Powertrain and Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
• Electric Drive Bus Population by Powertrain and Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
• Annual Electric Drive Truck Sales by Region and Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
• Annual Electric Drive Truck Sales by Powertrain and Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
• Annual Electric Drive Truck Sales Market Share by Powertrain and Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
• Annual Electric Drive Bus Sales by Region and Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
• Annual Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain and Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
• Annual Electric Drive Bus Sales Market Share by Powertrain and Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
• Annual Electric Drive Truck Sales by Powertrain and Scenario, North America: 2018-2030
• Annual Electric Drive Truck Sales by Powertrain and Scenario, Europe: 2018-2030
• Annual Electric Drive Truck Sales by Powertrain and Scenario, China: 2018-2030
• Annual Electric Drive Truck Sales by Powertrain and Scenario, India: 2018-2030
• Annual Electric Drive Truck Sales by Powertrain and Scenario, OECD Asia Pacific: 2018-2030
• Annual Electric Drive Truck Sales by Powertrain and Scenario, Rest of Asia Pacific: 2018-2030
• Annual Electric Drive Truck Sales by Powertrain and Scenario, Latin America: 2018-2030
• Annual Electric Drive Truck Sales by Powertrain and Scenario, Middle East & Africa: 2018-2030
• Annual Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain and Scenario, North America: 2018-2030
• Annual Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain and Scenario, Europe: 2018-2030
• Annual Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain and Scenario, China: 2018-2030
• Annual Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain and Scenario, India: 2018-2030
• Annual Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain and Scenario, OECD Asia: 2018-2030
• Annual Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain and Scenario, Rest of Asia: 2018-2030
• Annual Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain and Scenario, Latin America: 2018-2030
• Annual Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain and Scenario, Middle East & Africa: 2018-2030
• Annual Alternative Fuel Vehicle Sales by PFC, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
• Annual Alternative Fuel Vehicle Population by PFC, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
• Annual Alternative Fuel Vehicle Sales Market Share by PFC, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
• Annual Vehicle Sales Market Share by PFC, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
• Dimensions of Analysis
• Truck Weight by Category in Key Countries/Regions
• Common Truck Types by Class
• Bus Weight (or Length) by Category in Key Countries/Regions
• Common Bus Type by Class
• Electric Drive Truck and Bus Companies

The market for electric trucks and buses is still young, but rapid developments in the industry and increasing market interest are setting a strong foundation for electrification to become the new norm. Navigant Research anticipates that global sales of electric drive medium and heavy duty vehicles (eMHDVs) will increase by 9% through 2030. However, if the forecasts exclude the results of China's already aggressive push to electrify its bus market, which is the largest in the world, the growth rate is higher. Sales of eMHDVs in the rest of the world (excluding China) are expected to increase by nearly 17%.

There are challenges to the electrification of this market, particularly the heavy duty (HD) truck market. The current battery capacity for HD trucks falls short of the requirements for long-haul trucking applications, which prevents the use of electric trucks outside of fixed regional routes. Liquid natural gas (LNG) is the only other alternative fuel option for HD trucks as OEMs try to meet higher carbon emissions standards. Other technologies are poised to disrupt the eMHDV market by improving vehicle efficiency without changing the powertrain or fuel. Freight matching services could improve efficiency by reducing the occurrence of less than full loads. Incorporating platooning technologies could also increase a fleet's fuel efficiency.

This Navigant Research report analyzes the global market for electric drive trucks and buses, with a focus on four powertrains: hybrid, plug-in hybrid, battery electric, and fuel cell. The study provides an analysis of the market issues, including opportunities, implementation challenges, and prominent market factors, associated with eMHDVs. Global market forecasts for vehicle populations and sales, segmented by powertrain, powertrain-fuel configuration, vehicle type, region, and scenario, extend through 2030. The report also examines the major technologies surrounding the vehicle electrification landscape, including alternative fuels, as well as the key market participants.

Key Questions Addressed:

• What is the state of the market for electric drive medium and heavy duty vehicles (eMHDVs)?

• How will changing oil prices, battery prices, and fuel efficiency standards affect the MHDV market?

• Why will a growing number of vehicles be electrified?

• How and why do fuel retail costs vary by region?

• Which electric drive vehicles are experiencing the highest growth in sales-and why?

• What barriers are preventing eMHDVs from making inroads in the market?

• Which alternative fuels have the most potential to disrupt the market?

Who Needs This Report:

• Vehicle OEMs
• Fleet managers
• Oil & gas companies
• Infrastructure developers
• Government agencies
• Investor community

Table Of Contents

1. Executive Summary

• 1.1. Introduction
• 1.2. Market Forecasts

2. Market Issues

• 2.1. Introduction
• 2.2. Scope
  • 2.2.1. Hybrid
  • 2.2.2. Plug-In Hybrid
  • 2.2.3. Battery Electric
  • 2.2.4. Fuel Cell
• 2.3. Market Drivers
  • 2.3.1. Battery Cost Projections
  • 2.3.2. Energy
  • 2.3.3. Efficiency Standards
• 2.4. Market Challenges
  • 2.4.1. Infrastructure
  • 2.4.2. Other Competing Alternative Fuels

3. Key Industry Players

4. Market Forecasts

• 4.1. Introduction
  • 4.1.1. Scenarios
  • 4.1.2. Limitations
• 4.2. Forecast Methodology
  • 4.2.1. Vehicle Fleet
  • 4.2.2. Vehicle Sales
  • 4.2.3. PFC Distribution
    • 4.2.3.1. Total Cost of Ownership
    • 4.2.3.2. Constraints
      • 4.2.3.2.1. Refueling Network
• 4.3. Vehicle Market
  • 4.3.1. Trucks
  • 4.3.2. Buses
• 4.4. Conservative Scenario
• 4.5. Aggressive Scenario
• 4.6. AFVs
• 4.7. Conclusions and Recommendations
  • 4.7.1. Recommendations for Governments and Policymakers
  • 4.7.2. Recommendations for OEMs

5. Acronym and Abbreviation List

6. Table of Contents

7. Table of Charts and Figures

8. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes