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表紙:通信事業者のCapex-第4四半期の結果と展望:COVID-19パンデミックによりCapexが小幅に減少(2020年における1.8%減の2,940億ドル)する中でのネットワーク投資の回復力、2020年第4四半期のCapexは前年同期比1.2%上昇
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通信事業者のCapex-第4四半期の結果と展望:COVID-19パンデミックによりCapexが小幅に減少(2020年における1.8%減の2,940億ドル)する中でのネットワーク投資の回復力、2020年第4四半期のCapexは前年同期比1.2%上昇

Telco Capex - 4Q20 Results & Outlook: Network Spending Proves Resilient amidst COVID-19 Pandemic as Capex Falls Modestly, Down 1.8% in 2020 to $294 Billion, 4Q20 Capex Climbed 1.2% YoY

出版日: | 発行: MTN Consulting, LLC | ページ情報: 英文 10 Pages | 納期: 即納可能 即納可能とは

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通信事業者のCapex-第4四半期の結果と展望:COVID-19パンデミックによりCapexが小幅に減少(2020年における1.8%減の2,940億ドル)する中でのネットワーク投資の回復力、2020年第4四半期のCapexは前年同期比1.2%上昇
出版日: 2021年03月30日
発行: MTN Consulting, LLC
ページ情報: 英文 10 Pages
納期: 即納可能 即納可能とは
  • 全表示
  • 概要
  • 図表
  • 目次
概要

世界の通信業界は、2020年第4四半期の売上が前年同期比3.4%増、Capexが同1.2%増と回復しており、2020年の売上高は1.1%減の1兆7,940億ドルとなりました。これは、5Gが市場の需要を喚起していることを示すものではありませんが、パンデミックが蔓延した最悪の四半期である2020年第2四半期に記録した前年同期比5.4%の減収に比べれば安心感があります。

2020年の総Capexは、前年比1.8%減の2,941億ドルとなりました。これは、政府の後押しにより5Gの導入が加速した中国で7.3%の増加が見られたことが一因です。また、日本はRakuten、NTT、KDDIなどにより注目されました。2020年に最もCapexが減少したのは、AT&T、Jio、America Movil、Telefonica、Vodafone Ideaでした。JioとVodafone Ideaの削減は、高額な周波数コストに対処するためにネットワークCapexを抑制する必要があるという、通信事業者に共通する苦境を示しています。

2021年については、通信業界の収益は1兆7,910億米ドル、Capexは2,920億米ドルで、平均資本集約度は16.3%の見通しとなっています。ただし、Capexはこの目標の上限に達する可能性があります。2021年のCapex予測の不確実性の1つは、通信事業者がウェブスケール/クラウド部門との商取引関係を拡大していることが、ネットワーク支出にどのような影響を与えているかということです。

当レポートは、世界の通信事業者のCapexについて調査しており、業界の規模、見通しや予測、成長要因、影響などの情報を提供しています。

目次

  • 概要
  • 通信事業者の収益は2020年末に1.8兆ドルの大台をわずかに下回る
  • 2020年第4四半期の通信業界の設備投資は前年同期比1.2%増
  • 見通し
  • 付録
図表

List of Figures

  • Figure 1: Telecom industry revenues and capital intensity, 2011-20
  • Figure 2: Top 25 telcos in 4Q20 by revenues (US$B)
  • Figure 3: Biggest changes in revenues from 4Q19 to 4Q20 (US$M)
  • Figure 4: YoY change in telecom industry capex, 1Q18-4Q20
  • Figure 5: Biggest changes in YoY capex, 4Q20 vs. 4Q19 (US$M)
  • Figure 6: Top 20 telcos in 4Q20 by capex (US$M)
  • Figure 7: Highest capital intensity among major telcos in 4Q20*
目次
Product Code: GNI-30032021-1

The global telecom industry bounced back in 4Q20 with 3.4% and 1.2% YoY growth in revenues and capex, respectively. Revenues for CY2020 declined 1.1% to $1.794 trillion. This is not exactly a sign of 5G stimulating market demand, but reassuring relative to the 5.4% YoY revenue decline recorded during the worst quarter of the pandemic's spread, 2Q20. Total industry capex for 2020 was $294.1 billion, down 1.8% YoY, due in part to a 7.3% surge in China as a government push accelerated 5G rollouts. Japan was also a highlight due to Rakuten, NTT and KDDI. The biggest capex declines in 2020 occurred at AT&T, Jio, America Movil, Telefonica, and Vodafone Idea. The reductions at Jio and VI illustrate a common telco predicament: the need to restrain network capex to cope with expensive spectrum costs.

The relationship between capex and revenues in the telecom industry has stabilized, with annualized capital intensity remaining in a narrow window around 16.5% for several years. 2020's figure was 16.4%. This outperforms the 16.0% MTN Consulting expected for 2020, but we still expect average capex/revenues to glide towards the 15% range by 2025. That is just an average; individual telcos continue to record a wide range of capital intensity metrics, from the low single digits to an extreme of 148.2%, for Rakuten.

In the M&A world, the biggest industry change in 2020 was the completion of Deutsche Telekom's acquisition of Sprint. This has pushed DT into a leadership position in the industry, as it recorded $6.5B in 4Q20 capex, exceeding even China Mobile's second-ranked $6.0B. Expect DT to exert a stronger influence on industry standards and vendors' product decisions going forward. Also, the company's now larger exposure to the US market will tend to make it more sympathetic to the growing global reluctance to use Chinese vendors' gear. After DT and CM, the biggest spenders in terms of 4Q20 capex were AT&T, NTT, Verizon, China Telecom, Comcast, Vodafone, Orange, and China Unicom. This pecking order is largely unchanged from recent periods, where the top few operators in the US, China, and Europe dominate rankings.

Relative to company size, the biggest spenders among major telcos in 4Q20 were Telecom Italia, Veon, Rostelecom, Ooredoo, CK Hutchison, and Iliad. All recorded capital intensity above 30% on a single quarter basis. The transition to 5G is not the only factor. Costly fiber deployments were an issue for Iliad and Telecom Italia. Veon spent heavily on scaling up 4G across its footprint. Rostelecom's core capex is supplemented by state program investments; the company's share capital is 38% owned by the Federal Agency for State Property Management. For Ooredoo and CK Hutchison, 5G was the main driver; CK Hutchison has already made adjustments to its capex burden by agreeing to sell its European towers to Cellnex. One cost driver for many of the big telcos with high capex burdens is the growing cost of developing and/or acquiring software. MTN Consulting expects software to account for a rising percentage of overall network investments over the next few years.

For 2021 we maintain our current outlook: $1,791B in revenues and $292B in capex for the telecom industry, for an average capital intensity of 16.3%. Capex may trend to the high side of this target, however. One uncertainty around our 2021 capex forecast is how telcos' expanding commercial relationships with the webscale/cloud sector are impacting network spending. Many purchases of cloud resources flow through opex, but there is growing evidence that telcos book many such purchases as capex when possible. The accounting rules are in some cases open to interpretation, even if auditing firms frequently examine cloud cost allocation. An additional uncertainty is Huawei: as it struggles to win contracts amidst supply chain limitations, how will this affect the price bids offered by Nokia and Ericsson? MTN Consulting's current view is the impact will be minimal, given pressure from a rising Samsung and momentum behind Open RAN architectures. But both factors need to be watched closely.

Table of Contents

  • Summary
  • Telco revenues end 2020 just below $1.8 trillion mark
  • Telecom industry capex grows 1.2% YoY in 4Q20
  • Outlook
  • Appendix
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