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Telco Capex(通信事業者の設備投資):2020年第2四半期の結果と展望

Telco Capex - 2Q20 Results and Outlook: Annualized Capex Fell to $285.6B in 2Q20, as COVID-19 Encourages Cost Cutting and Procrastination, the New Normal Favors Software and Automation

出版日: | 発行: MTN Consulting, LLC | ページ情報: 英文 8 Pages | 納期: 即納可能 即納可能とは

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Telco Capex(通信事業者の設備投資):2020年第2四半期の結果と展望
出版日: 2020年10月01日
発行: MTN Consulting, LLC
ページ情報: 英文 8 Pages
納期: 即納可能 即納可能とは
  • 全表示
  • 概要
  • 目次
概要

Webスケールの設備投資は2020年第2四半期で史上最高を記録しましたが、通信事業ではその逆のことが起こっています。2020年第2四半期の通信事業の設備投資は655億米ドルとなり、2019年第2四半期から6.2%減少しました。これにより、通信事業の設備投資は年間ベースで2,856億米ドルにまで押し下げられました。これは、少なくとも10年間で最低のポイントです。

COVID-19の蔓延は、世界中で大規模な経済的混乱を引き起こしており、通信セクターも例外ではありません。ただし、収益性の観点からは、Webスケール企業と同様に、第2四半期は通信事業者にとって良い四半期でした。通信事業の第2四半期の成長率はマイナスでしたが、収益はそれほ悪化していないと考えられています。

2021年には設備投資がさらに減少し、収益の15%台になると予想されています。キャリアニュートラルなセクターへの資産のスピンオフが、通信事業者の低設備投資プロファイルをサポートしています。

当レポートは、Telco Capex(通信事業者の設備投資)について調査しており、市場の現状、COVID-19パンデミックの影響、コスト管理、今後の市場予測などの情報を提供しています。

調査範囲

当レポート掲載の企業

  • Altice USA
  • Amazon (AWS)
  • America Movil
  • AT&T
  • China Mobile
  • China Telecom
  • China Unicom
  • Chunghwa Telecom
  • Comcast
  • Deutsche Telekom
  • FiberHome
  • Google
  • Hathway Cable
  • Huawei
  • Jio
  • KDDI株式会社
  • KT
  • Microsoft (Azure)
  • 日本電信電話株式会社
  • Oi
  • Orange
  • PLDT
  • 楽天株式会社
  • Singtel
  • SK Telecom
  • Telecom Egypt
  • Telecom Italia
  • Telefonica
  • Telenor
  • Telstra
  • T-Mobile
  • Verizon
  • Vodafone
  • ZTE
  • Visuals

目次

  • 概要
  • 収益と設備投資の減少、および通信事業の2020年第2四半期の縮小
  • パンデミックと収益性のわずかな上昇
  • コスト管理とデジタル化
  • 2020年下半期および2021年の見通し
  • 付録
目次
Product Code: GNI-01102020-1

Webscale capex hit an all-time high in 2Q20, but the opposite happened in telecom. Telco capex in 2Q20 amounted to $65.5B, down 6.2% from the 2Q19 period. That pushed telco capex on an annualized basis down to $285.6 billion, the lowest point in at least a decade. Vendors selling into the telecom sector felt this pain. Setting aside Huawei, whose 2Q20 revenues soared on the back of Chinese 5G builds, the rest of the vendor industry saw telco sales drop 5.3% in 2Q20.

The spread of COVID-19 has caused massive economic dislocations across the world, and the telecom sector was not immune. However, in profitability terms, 2Q20 was a good quarter for telcos, just as it was for the webscale players. While negative growth rates were the norm in 2Q20 for telecom, the bottom line wasn't all that bad. Estimated EBITDA for the telco sector fell 2.8% in 2Q20 YoY, and EBIT dropped 4.1% on average. Since revenues declined at the faster 5.4% clip in 2Q20 on a YoY basis, overall margins improved on both an EBITDA and EBIT basis. Some of the margin improvement is due to telcos' leveraging demand growth for fixed broadband and services aimed at remote workers. Many telcos reported improvements in their fixed line operations, with Telecom Italia noting an "inversion" in the fixed to mobile substitution effect. However, as noted, overall revenues did fall 5.4% YoY, so profit growth was more about cost control.

Reduced headcount is one possible explanation. Telcos employed 5.11 million at the end of June 2020, from 5.21 million a year earlier. Earnings reports show, however, that labor costs rose again in 2Q20, on a relative basis: from 23.5% in 2Q19, labor costs were 24.3% of opex (ex-D&A) on an annualized basis in 2Q20. Many telcos pointed to reductions in marketing expenses, as demand for new services slowed to a halt. They also cited sales opex drops, as retail outlets closed and both selling & customer support shifted to digital platforms. Customer churn declined for many mobile operators, as did the cost of acquiring new customers. Programming expenses fell for telcos delivering media services (no live sports, limited new pre-recorded content). The overriding factor, though, is telcos' efforts to digitize, which COVID-19 provided a reason to accelerate. That has implications for the network, where automation tools are becoming crucial, and for other internal processes and customer interactions.

In this climate, the outlook for capex will remain tight: COVID-19 remains prevalent in many countries, there is still a global recession underway, the shape of any recovery is unclear, and telcos really don't want to spend more capex than they need to. Adoption of 5G took a pause in 1H20 and most telcos still look at it cautiously pending verification of new business models. The combination of COVID-19 and Huawei's problems have set back the global progression to 5G by at least a year. However, the shift towards digitization will accelerate, and vendors delivering software- and cloud native-based functionality to telcos will benefit. Platforms like Azure for Operators, AWS Wavelength, and Google's Mobile Edge Cloud will see increased adoption by telcos. We may see capex fall further in 2021 towards the 15% of revenues range as webscale providers become important collaborators with telcos on the network side. Asset spinoffs to the carrier-neutral sector further support a low capex profile for telcos.

Coverage:

Organizations mentioned in this report include:

  • Altice USA
  • Amazon (AWS)
  • America Movil
  • AT&T
  • China Mobile
  • China Telecom
  • China Unicom
  • Chunghwa Telecom
  • Comcast
  • Deutsche Telekom
  • FiberHome
  • Google
  • Hathway Cable
  • Huawei
  • Jio
  • KDDI
  • KT
  • Microsoft (Azure)
  • NTT
  • Oi
  • Orange
  • PLDT
  • Rakuten
  • Singtel
  • SK Telecom
  • Telecom Egypt
  • Telecom Italia
  • Telefonica
  • Telenor
  • Telstra
  • T-Mobile
  • Verizon
  • Vodafone
  • ZTE
  • Visuals

Table of Contents

  • Summary
  • Telecom shrinks in 2Q20 as both revenues and capex drop
  • Modest uptick in profitability despite pandemic
  • Cost control and digitization
  • Outlook for 2H20 and 2021
  • Appendix

Figures

  • Figure 1: Telco capex by region: 2Q18-2Q20 (single quarter basis)
  • Figure 2: Top 20 telcos based on 2Q20 capex ($M)
  • Figure 3: Top 20 telcos based on annualized capex/revenues
  • Figure 4: Annualized operating profit (EBIT) margin for the TNO-50
  • Figure 5: Telco capex and annualized capital intensity in the second quarter, 2015-20
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