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世界のリスク分析 (四半期ベース):2020年第4四半期

Global Risk Report Quarterly Update - Q4 2020

出版日: | 発行: MarketLine | ページ情報: 英文 63 Pages | 納期: 即納可能 即納可能とは

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世界のリスク分析 (四半期ベース):2020年第4四半期
出版日: 2021年03月24日
発行: MarketLine
ページ情報: 英文 63 Pages
納期: 即納可能 即納可能とは
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  • 概要
  • 目次
概要

MarketLineが作成したカントリーリスク指標 (MLCRI) の最新版によれば、2020年第4四半期現在、スイスが最上位にランクされ、シンガポールとデンマークがそれに続いています。同レポートによれば、28か国が超低リスクゾーン、22か国が低リスクゾーン、36か国が管理可能なリスク、39か国が高リスク、11か国が超高リスクゾーンに分類されています。

当レポートでは、MLCRI (MarketLine Country Risk Index) の分析内容に基づき、最新のマクロ経済の手法や国内/国際統計データを活用して、世界各国の抱える政治的・社会的・技術的・環境的・法的リスクを定性的および定量的手法で計測し、世界経済が直面している課題や潜在的リスクについて考察しております。

目次

目次

世界の概要:主要ハイライト

世界の概要:サマリー

フラッシュバック (2020年3月~2021年2月)

今後の主なイベント (2021年3月~2022年2月)

MLCRI (カントリーリスク指標):国別ランキング

  • MLCRI:ヒートマップ (2020年第4四半期)
  • MLCRI:世界の情勢 (2021年)

新型コロナウイルス感染症 (COVID-19):主要なリスクと回復過程

  • 感染率:緩やかながらも継続的に上昇
  • 成長予測 (2020年/2021年):主要なマクロ経済指標
  • 景況感・消費者マインドの動向
  • 米国の生産回復が鈍化する中での、原油価格の上昇傾向
  • 景気刺激策への巨額支出を伴う、主要国の財政赤字・債務水準の拡大
  • COVID-19が労働市場に与える影響

MarketLineの景気回復スコアカード

地域分析

  • 地域分析:アジア太平洋
  • 地域分析:欧州
  • 地域分析:南北アメリカ
  • 地域分析:中東・アフリカ

分析手法と情報源

目次
Product Code: MLER0012GLBRSK

Summary

Global Risk Report is based on MarketLine Country Risk Index (MLCRI) which is a unique country risk-rating model that determines the existing and future level of country risk by assessing various qualitative and quantitative factors. The index is formulated to help firms prepare their global business strategies on the basis of historical developments in an economy and also their future expectations.

The Country Risk Index incorporates the latest available macroeconomics, political, social, technological, environmental and legal data from a range of recognized national and international statistical sources, and incorporates proprietary data from MarketLine Economics Research. The model also features expert analytical judgment from in-house economists and takes into account their insights and opinions. By applying a robust approach to assessing risk, MarketLine analysts ensure that strategists have an effective tool to assess current trends and risks facing the economies across the globe.

The twelfth update version of MarketLine Country Risk Index (MLCRI) Q4 2020 ranks Switzerland at the top followed by Singapore and Denmark. 28 countries were identified in the very low risk zone, 22 countries in the low-risk zone, 36 countries under manageable risk, 39 countries under high risk and 11 countries in the very high-risk zone in MLCRI Q4 2020.

Scope

  • In Asia-Pacific, the risk score stood at 42.2 in Q4 2020, compared to 51.4 in Q2 2020, making it the second lowest risk region. A recovery in the purchasing managers' index (PMI) for manufacturing has been witnessed in most APAC nations, along with a gradual recovery in global demand. An uptick in retail trade and growing demand for e-commerce helped the APAC economies recover in H2 2020.
  • The European region remained the lowest risk region in the Q4 2020 update of the global risk index, owing to its strong macroeconomic fundamentals. When the coronavirus pandemic was at its peak, the European nations were able to control its spread and the risks associated with the pandemic through sufficient control measures enforced in a timely manner.
  • The Americas is the second highest risk region, according to the MLCRI Q4 2020 update, with a regional risk score of 47.6 out of 100. The whole region was battered by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Out of the top 15 worst affected countries, five are part of the Americas. The health crisis has led to a precipitous rise in poverty and social instability in the region, led by high unemployment.
  • The Middle East and Africa (MEA) is the highest risk region according to the MLCRI 2020 Q4 update, with a regional risk score of 51.4 out of 100, down compared to 55.6 in the MLCRI 2020 Q2 update and up compared to 48.8 in the MLCRI 2019 Q4 update. The region continues to be plagued by social conflict and geopolitical turmoil.

Reasons to Buy

  • Global Risk Report is based on MarketLine Country Risk Index (MLCRI) which is a unique country risk-rating model that determines the existing and future level of country risk by assessing various qualitative and quantitative factors. The index is formulated to help firms prepare their global business strategies on the basis of historical developments in an economy and also their future expectations.
  • The Country Risk Index incorporates the latest available macroeconomics, political, social, technological, environmental and legal data from a range of recognized national and international statistical sources, and incorporates proprietary data from MarketLine Economics Research. The model also features expert analytical judgment from in-house economists and takes into account their insights and opinions. By applying a robust approach to assessing risk, MarketLine analysts ensure that strategists have an effective tool to assess current trends and risks facing the economies across the globe.

Table of Contents

Global Overview - Key Highlights

Global Overview - Summary

Flashback - March 2020 to February 2021

Key Events - March 2021 to February 2022

MLCRI - Country Ranking

MLCRI Q4 2020 Heat Map

MLCRI - Global Landscape 2021

COVID-19 - Major Risks and Recovery

Infection rates continue to rise albeit at a slower pace

Growth forecast for 2020 and 2021: Key Macroeconomic Indicators

Business and consumer sentiments trends

Oil prices rise amid slow US output recovery

Increasing deficit and debt levels in major economies with huge spending on stimulus

COVID-19 impact on the labor market

MarketLine's economic recovery scorecard

Regional Analysis

Regional Analysis - Asia-Pacific

Regional Analysis - Europe

Regional Analysis - Americas

Regional Analysis - Middle East and Africa

Methodology and Sources

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