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電気自動車:将来の自動車産業を形成する技術のディープダイブ分析

Electric Vehicles: A deep dive in the technology that is the future of the Auto industry

発行 MarketLine 商品コード 625208
出版日 ページ情報 英文 41 Pages
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電気自動車:将来の自動車産業を形成する技術のディープダイブ分析 Electric Vehicles: A deep dive in the technology that is the future of the Auto industry
出版日: 2018年04月01日 ページ情報: 英文 41 Pages
概要

当レポートでは、世界の電気自動車産業を調査し、市場のリーダー企業とその推移、インフラ上の課題と今後の発展における障壁、ハイブリッド車の重要性、中国市場の動向と政府による取り組み、将来の展望などをまとめています。

エグゼクティブサマリー

電気自動車:コンスタントに変わる市場のリーダー

  • EV販売台数:堅調に推移してきたが、今後は爆発的な飛躍に
  • 大きなリスクを抱えるリーダー
  • これまでの市場リーダーの位置付けはますます不安定に
    • 日産リーフ
    • Tesla
  • Tesla:強力な新規参入事業者に悩まされる
  • もっとも手強い新規参入事業者は中国から

電気自動車:解消すべき深刻な課題のひとつはインフラ

  • グローバルなインフラ実装:非常に困難
  • 英国:インフラが重要な問題に
  • 各国の充電ニーズはさまざまであり、ひとつのソリューションはない
    • Ubitricityの街灯による充電
    • 電池交換:近年開発が下火に
    • ガソリンスタンド:重要なEV充電サイト
    • 電磁誘導方式による道路での充電:非常に高コストな選択肢
  • スマートグリッド:迅速かつ大規模に導入される必要がある

近い将来の電気自動車を代表するハイブリッド車

  • ガソリン車・EV車の開発を出し抜くハイブリッド車の技術開発
  • プラグインハイブリッド技術:EV量産化のレースにける妥協点
  • ハイブリッドパワートレインのメリット
  • ハイブリッドエネルギー:業界の燃料コスト削減ニーズを利用するのに良い立ち位置

将来の開発における脅威と電気自動車への熱意への影響

  • レアアースの中国への依存:主要企業は代替の模索を
  • 電気自動車の環境への影響は依然として大きい:改善が必要
  • 内燃機関の開発は終わってはいない・今後数十年は続く見通し
  • 首尾一貫した中古EV市場創出の失敗:大規模な導入を阻害している

中国:世界のEV市場での確固たる地位

  • さらに拡大する見通しの中国市場
  • 国内開発を推進する中国政府の方針
  • 原材料の獲得競争
  • 主要な輸出国になる見通し、など

主要調査結果

付録

目次
Product Code: ML00026-013

Summary:

Almost conclusively now, electric vehicles appear to have won the power train argument in the automotive industry and car manufacturers from all over the world have made significant promises to deliver only hybrid and electric vehicles in the future.

From automotive shows to the world's cities, new models and ideas are being tested and the general public whilst being broadly reticent at first, is now beginning to accept the idea of battery powered chargeable vehicles. Whilst the industry waits for consumer adoption levels to really boom, manufacturers are gearing up for a serious fight to establish a position in what will undoubtedly become the main automotive market.

The leaders of a few years ago now have significant new challengers and are having to fight harder for sales than ever before. Huge new challenges are becoming obvious as the world tries to establish exactly how it will power and build all these new vehicles. There is a new heavy demand for the rare earth materials that electric vehicles need and some concerns about the environmental implications of replacing the global fleet with this technology.

One country that is not being overly cautious about this change is China and it has ploughed ahead to the point where its manufacturers are now dominant in the electric vehicle industry. Within the next decade a point will arrive where electric vehicles will outsell traditional combustion engine vehicles, but in order for that to happen and it not be a charging and technical disaster many things must change.

Key Highlights:

In the global EV market there have been some companies that have jumped on EV technology and run with it from an early stage and companies like Nissan and Tesla have capitalized on being bold and first to market.

However in early 2018 the market is proving to be much more fluid than ever before and as new models come to market and more big automotive players start to get serious with their EV products, it is changing the leaderboard from month to month.

A number of factors are starting to come together which should eventually propel EV sales so that they stop being niche and start becoming ubiquitous, but the market is not quite there yet.

However, when it comes, players will have to be ready with compelling products or they risk trying to survive on dwindling internal combustion engine vehicle sales alone whilst their customers are taxed heavily for buying them.

Despite the very ambitious targets that have been set by governments and automotive manufacturers all over the world, how to transition the global fleet onto electric vehicles is still very far from being clear.

There is a wide array of charging technologies and solutions range from service station fast chargers to on road chargers. However, as yet, there are very few countries even close to a complete solution on the scale that will allow the global fleet to be transferred over.

A number of innovative startup companies are working on solutions to the problem but this could be a very limiting factor on the progress of the industry and big money is needed to role out charging infrastructure that will cover entire countries, both in terms of the places to charge and the power distribution networks.

Much of the attention placed upon the development of EVs has been focused upon the fast-charging, full-electric-vehicle (FEV), but that concept remains in the future and requires several major technical breakthroughs before a cheap, reliable and almost instantly chargeable electric vehicle emerges from a major manufacturer.

Hybrid cars have been in development for some time; being ahead in the development race means hybrid technology represents the immediate future of EV technology.

Attracting large research and development budgets, hybrid cars are increasingly becoming mainstream and offer solutions to the problems currently afflicting FEVs.

Scope:

  • Examine who the main players are in the EV industry and who are the emerging new players
  • Look at the challenges faced by the industry and how likely these are to be overcome
  • See the countries that are really pushing ahead with the technology and why
  • Analyze the future of the industry, who the winners and losers are and what the competition looks like

Reasons to buy:

  • What are the most important EV models on sale?
  • What companies are going to become dominant?
  • Why are hybrids so important in EV tech?
  • What does the future of the industry look like?
  • What do governments need to do to encourage growth?
  • How far away are we from the expected EV boom?

Table of Contents

  • Executive Summary
    • Electric vehicles: Market leaders will constantly change
    • Electric vehicles: Infrastructure is one of the biggest problems to solve
    • Hybrid cars represent immediate future of electric vehicles
    • Among enthusiasm for electric vehicles lurks threats to future development
    • China due to cement dominant position in EV global market
  • Electric vehicles: the market leaders will constantly change
    • EV sales have been growing well but will soon explode
    • The leaders have typically taken big risks to get where they are
    • The position of the previous market leaders is looking increasingly precarious
      • Nissan's Leaf perhaps wasn't as desirable as it was hoped
      • Tesla is suffering under the burden of mass manufacturing
    • Tesla is being challenged by new and powerful market entrants
    • The scariest new entrants of all will be from China
  • Electric vehicles: Infrastructure is one of the biggest problems to solve
    • Implementing a global infrastructure is going to be very difficult
    • Infrastructure is going to be a huge problem in the UK
    • Each country's charging needs are different and there is no one solution
      • Ubitricity's lamp post charging idea might really help in dense European cities
      • Battery Swapping is a technology that has been explored but recently fallen away
      • Petrol service stations have been identified as a key way that EV fleets could be charged
      • Inductive road charging is likely an extremely expensive option
    • Smart Grids will need to be implemented quickly and on a huge scale
  • Hybrid cars represent immediate future of electric vehicles
    • Hybrid vehicle technology development is beating development in both petrol and electric
    • Plug-in hybrid technology is middle ground in race to mass production electric vehicles
    • Advances in hybrid powertrains contrast electric vehicles in state of readiness
    • Hybrid energy well placed to take advantage of industry need to reduce fuel costs
  • Among enthusiasm for electric vehicles lurk threats to future development could harm EV enthusiasm
    • Dependence on China for rare earth elements is causing leading companies to search for alternatives
    • Environmental impact of electric vehicles is still substantial - improvements need to be made
    • Internal combustion development is not dead and could yet be around for decades to come
    • Failure to create a coherent used electric car market is holding back widespread take-up
  • China due to cement dominant position in EV global market
    • Chinese market is dominant and is expected to become bigger
    • Chinese government rules are propelling domestic development but are not without problems
      • Changing rules on foreign involvement will help China develop new generation of electric vehicles
    • Race for raw materials is led by China, granting a substantial global competitive advantage
    • Helped by leading status in EVs, China could become leading car exporter
  • Key Findings
  • Appendix
    • Further Reading
    • Sources
    • Ask the analyst
    • About MarketLine
    • Disclaimer
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