- How will the billet and rebar market evolve over the next 5 years in terms of regional demand, supply and prices?
- What is the price outlook for steel raw materials impacting the global rebar market?
- How best should you plan your capacity accordingly in light of these market and price developments?
- How much capital investment is required to build a new steel rebar mill and how can you reduce this capex cost?
- What are the main input cost determinants of rebar mill viability?
The total global market for rebar was 337m tonnes in 2014. Output has grown at an average compound growth rate (CAGR) of 7.9% since 2008. China dominates the global market accounting for 64% of total output and its growth has averaged over 15% since 2008, when it accounted for just less than half of output. However, mature markets in Europe, North America and Japan/South Korea have seen no growth in output since the recession. Asian output has also been hit by rising Chinese exports.
The objective of the study is for current steel rebar manufacturers, and new investors who may be contemplating a new rebar mill investment, to better understand the market, capital, land and labour force implications of their decisions and benchmark their operations with current competitors.
No such information is readily available from any single comprehensive source. And no other report both describes and benchmarks the typical resource requirements for rebar mill production in today's challenging rebar market environment.
"The report will be invaluable to investors, managers and consultants who are involved in rebar mill manufacturing and investment planning enabling them to benchmark their company with their competitors."
- How important is land area availability in steelmaking technology selection if you are looking to invest?
- What are average productivity and total employment levels for the industry?
- What are the key operational performance indicators for a rebarmill you must monitor closely?
- What are rebar yield performance benchmarks?
- What are typical mill power requirements across various technologies and companies?
- What are the cost structures, by major items, between EAF and induction furnaces by major company?
- What are typical capital costs for individual items of plant in a modern rebar mill?
The report covers:
- Key demand, supply and price trends for iron ore, scrap, billets and rebars out to 2020:
- Typical rebar mill land use requirements (with illustrative site layouts) and labour force requirements (showing employment levels by function) by company
- Capital costs at each main stage of the rebar production process
- Average capacities, typical capital costs and capital costs per tonne of capacity for entire scrap-based steel plants, as well as for the main items of equipment (including EAF furnaces, induction furnaces, ladle furnaces, casters, bar rolling mills, power plants and waste water treatment units)
- Capex cost versus capacity charts to illustrate how the capital investment costs vary with plant size
- The most important key performance indicators (KPIs) that govern overall mill performance
- Generic cost models for melt shop, continuous caster and bar rolling mill operations
- The main steps in capacity planning, illustrating some of the main relationships between equipment specification, KPIs and total plant capacity
Historical pricing data as well as forecasts out to 2020 are included in this comprehensive study. Prices covered include iron ore, CIS ferrous scrap, Brazil pig iron, EU pig iron, Venezuela HBI, US HBI, US rebar, China rebar, US HR coil, China HR coil.
"Metal Bulletin Research provides an excellent overview of the market, the country level detail provides real opportunity for in-depth analysis."
Product Marketing Manager, Tata Steel
"Metal Bulletin Research is analytical, data-rich and dependable. I can recommend them for high-level market and price forecast studies that assist me in making strategic decisions for the company."
Head of Marketing, Ezz Steel
Table of Contents
- I.1 Purpose of this report
- I.2 Authorship of this report
- I.3 Definitions
- I.4 Sources of information
- I.5 Abbreviations
1: Rebar Market Background
- 1.1 Total Global Market
- 1.2 The US rebar market
- 1.3 Forecast Pricing Methodology
- 1.4 Raw Material Costs
- 1.5 China market dynamics and outlook
- 1.6 Global Macro-Economic Outlook
- 1.7 Crude steel Outlook
- 1.8 Iron Ore Outlook
- 1.9 DRI/HBI Outlook
- 1.10 Ferrous Scrap Outlook
- 1.11 Rebar Price Outlook
2: Capital Costs
- 2.1 Capital investment costs for scrap-based long product plants
- 2.2 Capex costs for individual plant items
- 2.2.1 Electric arc furnace
- 2.2.2 Induction furnace
- 2.2.3 Ladle furnace
- 2.2.4 Continuous caster
- 2.2.5 Bar rolling mill
- 2.3 Capital investment costs for auxiliary items
- 2.3.1 Power plant
- 2.3.2 Waste water treatment plant
- 2.4 Capital investment costs for other items
- 2.5 Capex cost vs capacity charts
- 2.6 Summary
3: Land Requirements
- 3.1 Typical land area needs
- 3.2 Site layout
- 3.3 Other site planning issues
- 3.4 Summary
- 4.1 Average productivity and total employment
- 4.2 Employment by function
- 4.3 Summary
5: Mill Performance Planning
- 5.1 Capacity planning
- 5.2 Key performance indicators
- 5.3 Operating costs
- 5.4 Mill commissioning tests
- 5.5 Summary
- Appendix 1 Capital investment costs for EAF / CC / billet mills
- Appendix 2 Capital investment costs for EAF / CC / bar mills
- Appendix 3 Capital investment costs for electric arc furnaces
- Appendix 4 Capital investment costs for induction furnaces
- Appendix 5 Capital investment costs for ladle furnaces
- Appendix 6 Capital investment costs for continuous casters
- Appendix 7 Capital investment costs for hot-rolled bar mills
- Appendix 8 Capital investment costs for power plant
- Appendix 9 Capital investment costs for waste water treatment plants
- Appendix 10a Example site layout - smaller rebar facility #1
- Appendix 10b Example site layout - smaller rebar facility #2
- Appendix 11 Example site layout - larger rebar facility
- Appendix 12 Employment analysis by function for 1 mt/year rebar mill
List of charts/tables:
- Exhibit 1.1 List of abbreviations
- Exhibit 1.2 Global rebar production by region/major country
- Exhibit 1.3 Global trade in rebar by region/major country
- Exhibit 1.4 Global consumption of rebar by region/major country
- Exhibit 1.5 US domestic (ex-works) and import rebar price ($/short ton)
- Exhibit 1.6 Spread between domestic ex-works and import f.o.t price ($/short ton)
- Exhibit 1.7 Domestic over import spread* versus US imports* (*3-month average)
- Exhibit 1.8 US domestic rebar (ex-works SE USA) versus ferrous scrap (delivered US mill)
- Exhibit 1.9 Spread between ferrous scrap and rebar ($/short ton)
- Exhibit 1.10 Steelmaking raw material prices (annual averages -$/tonne)
- Exhibit 1.11 Chinese crude steel production
- Exhibit 1.12 Year-on-year finished steel consumption growth in China
- Exhibit 1.13 Chinese finished steel exports (000 tonnes)
- Exhibit 1.14 By product and major market price Outlook out to 2020
- Exhibit 2.1 Mini-mill capital investment costs
- Exhibit 2.2 Electric arc furnace capital investment costs
- Exhibit 2.3 Variation of EAF capex cost per tonne with melt shop capacity
- Exhibit 2.4 Induction furnace capital investment costs
- Exhibit 2.5 Ladle furnace capital investment costs
- Exhibit 2.6 Continuous caster capital investment costs
- Exhibit 2.7 Bar rolling mill capital investment costs
- Exhibit 2.8 Power plant capital investment costs
- Exhibit 2.9 Waste water treatment plant capital investment costs
- Exhibit 2.17 Capital investment cost summary
- Exhibit 3.1 Land area requirements for selected steel long product mills
- Exhibit 3.3 Land area requirements for selected DRI production plants
- Exhibit 4.1 Employment & productivity levels in selected bar mills - industrialised world
- Exhibit 4.2 Bar mill employment levels by principal function - industrialised world
- Exhibit 5.1 Rebar works yield performance benchmarks
- Exhibit 5.3 Net working hours calculation and capacity check - bar mill example
- Exhibit 5.4 Key operational performance indicators for a rebar mill
- Exhibit 5.5 Definition of mill power requirements based on KPIs
- Exhibit 5.6 Typical mill power requirements - induction-based rebar mill
- Exhibit 5.7 Typical mill manning requirements - EAF-based example
- Exhibit 5.8 Generic cost model for EAF steelmaking
- Exhibit 5.9 Generic cost model for induction furnace steelmaking
- Exhibit 5.10 Generic cost model for steel refining in a ladle furnace
- Exhibit 5.11 Generic cost model for continuous billet casting
- Exhibit 5.12 Generic cost model for hot rolled bar production