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市場調査レポート

世界の自動車産業向け鉄鋼・アルミニウム市場の戦略的展望

Strategic Prospects for Steel and Aluminium in the Global Automotive Sector

発行 Metal Bulletin Research 商品コード 312899
出版日 ページ情報 英文
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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世界の自動車産業向け鉄鋼・アルミニウム市場の戦略的展望 Strategic Prospects for Steel and Aluminium in the Global Automotive Sector
出版日: 2014年05月01日 ページ情報: 英文
概要

自動車産業の将来発展が世界の鋼材需要に及ぼす影響を主な等級、製品、タイプ別に考察することが今回の調査テーマです。

当レポートでは、世界の自動車産業向け鉄鋼・アルミニウム市場に注目し、2014-2024年の期間、25カ国の地域を対象に需給の推移を製品の等級、セグメント、タイプ別に予測するほか、各地域における市場の現況、動向、課題、展望、競合環境、事業戦略などについての調査情報をまとめています。

第1章 イントロダクション、調査の目的

第2章 エグゼクティブサマリー

第3章 産業分野の発展

  • イントロダクション - 世界市場車市場の背景
  • 世界自動車市場の進化と構造
  • 規制問題 - 欧米における車両重量や排ガス、そしてリサイクルなど
  • 燃料の混在(ガソリン、ディーゼル、LPG、水素)が産業分野に与える影響
  • 電気自動車やハイブリッド車の進化
  • 中国、アジアの成長 - 重要問題
  • その他諸般の問題

第4章 需要の推進要因

  • 軽量化
  • 燃費
  • 安全性
  • リサイクルや車両寿命の考慮
  • 材料選定問題(鋼鉄、アルミニウムほかの素材)
  • 塗装前ボディシェルのトレンド
  • クロージャー( 蓋もの)のトレンド
  • パワートレインのトレンド
  • ドライブトレインのトレンド
  • その他のトレンド

第5章 需要予測

  • 車両型式
    • 小型乗用車(PLDV)
    • 小型商用車(LCV)
    • 大型商用車(HCV)
    • バスおよび長距離バス(B&C)
  • 関連需要予測
    • 鋼鉄(低強度鋼、従来型高強度鋼、改良型高強度鋼、超高速度鋼)
    • アルミニウム(主要等級およびタイプ別)
    • その他の素材:主要タイプ別 - 胴、酸化ネオジム、リチウムイオンバッテリー部材など
    • プラスチックほか
  • 生産量・工程への影響
  • 自動車世界需要予測 - 主要地域・国、別予測

第6章 自動車メーカーと製鋼メーカーの供給関係

  • 6分野それぞれにおける主要サプライヤーのプロフィール
  • ULSABほかの各取り組みを検証する
  • 今後予測される主要な変化

第7章 金属および基幹素材の供給

  • 生産者の生産力・生産量予測 - 等級別:鋼鉄、従来型・改良型高強度鋼、超高度鋼(塗膜条件を含む)
  • 生産者の相関性
  • 生産者の投資

第8章 地域鉄鋼販売の構造 - サービスセンター経由、自動車メーカーへの直販、OEM製造者への直販

第9章 付加価値戦略、価格、販売構造

  • 自動車価格についての考察 - 特定モデルに向けた価格設定および値上げの構造を理解・解析する
  • 今後の鉄鋼・アルミニウム価格予測 - 主要用途に対応する主な自動車用等級別
  • 今後のサプライチェーン進化

第10章 その他の重要問題

  • ブランド問題とブランドが材料選定に与える影響
  • 炭素アジェンダと自動車産業
  • 下流市場の考察とその商機
  • 特注ブランクの新開発およびその他の新製造技法
  • 研究開発トレンド
目次

How will future demand for vehicles be translated into steel demand by major grades, products and types

The automotive market is experiencing dramatic changes now, which will have important implications for both the steel and aluminium industries going forward.

The demand for global vehicles is expected to rise strongly between 2014-2024. For example, Chinese automotive steel demand is only 6% of the total, versus 25% and 18% for the U.S. and Europe, respectively. It is therefore reasonable to assume that automotive steel demand will "play catch up" even as the pace of Chinese construction growth slows.

While automakers including Volkswagen AG (VAW)'s Audi and Tata Motors Ltd. (TATA)'s Jaguar Land Rover have used aluminum in their cars and sport-utility vehicles in the past, Ford is now producing its F-Series trucks in much higher volume for body panels.

How much of a threat will this be for steel producers targeting the global automotive market going forward How will steelmakers react to potentially higher usage of aluminium projected

Supported by our vehicle forecast by type by major global country, this study will investigate and evaluate in detail how global demand for various steel grades will evolve for over 25 countries including: Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Iran, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Netherlands, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Thailand, Turkey, UK, USA.

This will include IF steel, HSS, AHSS,UHSS, as well as emerging grades such as CP, DP, TRIP, martensitic etc.

The study will also benchmark automotive steel grades usage vs key aluminium alloys, as well as other competing materials (including plastics, magnesium etc) across all vehicle component types including the body, closures, chassis and powertrain.

This will all have important implications to the evolution and trends of future steel and aluminium price forecasts out to 2024 by major automotive grades for key application - featured exclusively in this comprehensive study.

The report will provide unique insight into pricing for the automotive sector supply through an understanding and decoding of the pricing structures and uplifts for specific automotive products.

Material analysis includes:

  • Steeby special grades
  • Aluminium by major alloys
  • Cast iron
  • Copper
  • Glass
  • Lead
  • Lithium ion batteries
  • Magnesium
  • Paint
  • Plastics
  • Rubber
  • Stainless steel
  • Zinc
  • Neodymium oxide
  • Platinum-group metals

This study is the first of its kind and is required reading for all metal industry professionals that have interest in current forward business planning relating to the global automotive sector. This in-depth research offers expert analysis and forecast including:

  • The report evaluates how the world's automotive sector has developed by country by type of vehicle up to the present day.
  • It takes a strategic view of how, where and when vehicles will be required in future, segmented into six key vehicle types, Light Duty Vehicles (LDVs) which are further segmented into Internal Combustion Engine (ICE), Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEV) and Electric Vehicles (EV) with the other segments being Light Commercial Vehicles (LCVs), Heavy Commercial Vehicles (HCVs), Buses and Coaches (B&C).
  • The report will assess how the world's automotive demands are forecast to change and how these will be translated into demand for steel, aluminium and other materials over a 10 year forecast horizon
  • We have built a proprietary database, using primary research and interviews of how automotive material demand will develop by country and region by vehicle type, steel grade and type, aluminium grade and type and other materials used for the main vehicle segments from 2014 to 2024
  • We identify where significant growth has occurred in the automotive sector and which countries have peaked in terms of their automotive penetration and those where there is still much growth remaining
  • The report evaluates how the world's automotive sector has developed by country by type of vehicle up to the present day.
  • It takes a strategic view of how, where and when vehicles will be required in future, segmented into six key vehicle types, Light Duty Vehicles (LDVs) which are further segmented into Internal Combustion Engine (ICE), Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEV) and Electric Vehicles (EV) with the other segments being Light Commercial Vehicles (LCVs), Heavy Commercial Vehicles (HCVs), Buses and Coaches (B&C).
  • The report will assess how the world's automotive demands are forecast to change and how these will be translated into demand for steel, aluminium and other materials over a 10 year forecast horizon
  • We have built a proprietary database, using primary research and interviews of how automotive material demand will develop by country and region by vehicle type, steel grade and type, aluminium grade and type and other materials used for the main vehicle segments from 2014 to 2024
  • We identify where significant growth has occurred in the automotive sector and which countries have peaked in terms of their automotive penetration and those where there is still much growth remaining
  • 9: Value adding strategies,
  • prices and sales structures
  • 9.1 Insights into pricing for automotive sector supply through
  • an understanding and decoding of the pricing structures
  • and uplifts for specific automotive products
  • 9.2 Evolution of future steel and aluminium price forecasts out
  • to 2024 by major automotive grades for key application
  • 9.3 The evolution of the supply chain now and out to 2024
  • SWOT analysis/case studies of major automotive steel and aluminium
  • producers. In each case MBR evaluates the automotive presence, markets,
  • automotive products and product strengths, automotive steel manufacturing
  • locations, research and development in technology, downstream integration
  • and overall summary of automotive capabilities and likely future direction.

Table of Contents

1: Introduction and purpose of the report

2: Executive summary

3: The evolution of the sector to 2013

  • 3.1 Introduction - the background to the world market for automotives
  • 3.2 The evolution and structure of the world automotive market
  • 3.3 Regulatory issues, e.g. in Europe/USA on vehicle weight/emissions etc also recycling
  • 3.4 The impact of changing fuel mix on the sector (petrol, diesel, LPG, hydrogen)
  • 3.5 The evolution of electric and hybrid vehicles
  • 3.6 Growth in China, Asia - key issues
  • 3.7 Other issues as appropriate

4: Drivers of demand

  • 4.1 Lightweighting
  • 4.2 Fuel economy
  • 4.3 Safety
  • 4.4 Recycling and end of life vehicle considerations
  • 4.5 Materials selection issues (steel, aluminium and other materials)
  • 4.6 Body in white trends
  • 4.7 Closures trends
  • 4.8 Powertrain trends
  • 4.9 Drivetrain trends
  • 4.10 Other trends

5: Demand forecasts

  • 5.1 Vehicle types
    • 5.1.1 Private Light Duty Vehicles (PLDVs)
      • 5.1.1.1 Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles
      • 5.1.1.2 Electric Vehicles
      • 5.1.1.3 Plug in and Hybrid Electric Vehicles
    • 5.1.2 Light Commercial Vehicles (LCVs)
    • 5.1.3 Heavy Commercial Vehicles (HCVs)
    • 5.1.4 Buses and Coaches (B&Cs)
  • 5.2 Associated demand forecasts for
    • 5.2.1 Steel (broken down into low strength steels (interstitialfree and mild steels); conventional HSS (carbonmanganese, bake hardenable, high-strength interstitial-free, and high-strength low-alloy steels), AHSS and UHSS (dual phase, transformation-induced plasticity, complex phase, martensitic and other steels)
    • 5.2.2 Aluminium (by key grade and type)
    • 5.2.3 Other materials by key type including the impact of electric vehicles on demand for copper, neodymium oxide and lithium-ion battery components
    • 5.2.4 Plastics and other materials
  • 5.3 Yield and process implications
  • 5.4 World automotive demand forecasts by key region and country List (Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Iran, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Netherlands, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Thailand, Turkey, UK, USA)

6: Supply relationships between car manufacturers and steel producers

  • 6.1 Profiles of key automotive suppliers in each of the 6 sectors
  • 6.2 A review of ULSAB and other initiatives
  • 6.3 Expected key changes to 2024
  • 6.4 Examination of the relationship between different tier suppliers relative to the steelmaker and how this is expected to evolve out to 2024

7: Supply of metals and key materials

  • 7.1 Producer capacity/output forecasts Focus on steel, conventional and AHSS/UHSS grades including coating requirements
  • 7.2 Producer relationships
  • 7.3 Producer investment

8: Structure of regional steel sales, i.e. via service centres, direct to vehicle manufacturers, direct to OEMs

9: Value adding strategies, prices and sales structures

  • 9.1 Insights into pricing for automotive sector supply through an understanding and decoding of the pricing structures and uplifts for specific automotive products
  • 9.2 Evolution of future steel and aluminium price forecasts out to 2024 by major automotive grades for key application
  • 9.3 The evolution of the supply chain now and out to 2024

10: Other key issues

  • 10.1 Brand issues and the impact of brand on materials selection
  • 10.2 The carbon agenda and the automotive sector
  • 10.3 Downstream considerations and opportunities
  • 10.4 New developments in tailored blanks and other emerging manufacturing techniques
  • 10.5 R&D trends

Producer case studies

SWOT analysis/case studies of major automotive steel and aluminium producers. In each case MBR evaluates the automotive presence, markets, automotive products and product strengths, automotive steel manufacturing locations, research and development in technology, downstream integration and overall summary of automotive capabilities and likely future direction.

Steel Company Coverage:

  • ArcelorMittal
  • Baosteel
  • JFE
  • Nippon Sumitomo
  • POSCO
  • Severstal
  • TKS
  • US Steel
  • Others

Aluminium Company CoveragAlcoa

  • Aleris
  • Novelis
  • Others
  • e:

Appendix 2: Electric vehicle battery developments and ramifications

Appendix 3: Emissions control and the evolution of catalytic converters - new insights offered

Appendix 4: Glossary of specialist automotive terms

A comprehensive glossary is also included. This covers over 350 specific automotive, steel, aluminium or material terms and has been developed specifically for this report. It includes full details and specifications and definitions of the various new advanced grades of steel with notes on their uses and applications. It includes new and emerging terminology used in terms of emissions control and greenhouse gas emissions. It also includes the terminology used by the electric and hybrid vehicle sector.

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