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中国のアルミニウム産業:5カ年予測

MBR's A Five Year Outlook for China's Aluminium Industry

発行 Metal Bulletin Research 商品コード 213210
出版日 ページ情報 英文
納期: 即日から翌営業日
価格
本日の銀行送金レート: 1USD=114.81円で換算しております。
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中国のアルミニウム産業:5カ年予測 MBR's A Five Year Outlook for China's Aluminium Industry
出版日: 2011年04月30日 ページ情報: 英文
概要

2010年に世界のアルミニウム産業が不況から回復する中、中国政府は小規模で非効率的な製錬業者の廃業を勧告し、それまでの優遇電力価格制度を一部撤廃、6月にはエネルギー強度削減(Energy Intensity Reduction)プログラムに着手しました。このイニシアティブにより、中国における製錬能力は縮小し、100万トン以上の生産減となりました。現在のエネルギー規制と、アルミナおよび電力価格の上昇により、多くのアナリストは、中国のアルミニウム産業が需要を満たすことができなくなると考えており、2015年には最大500万トンの1次金属を輸入する必要が出てくると予測しています。

当レポートでは、中国におけるアルミニウム市場の現状と見通しについて、中国政府のエネルギー政策をまとめるとともに、需要および供給の側面からその影響を分析・評価し、今後の展望をまとめるなど、概略下記の構成でお届けいたします。

イントロダクション

背景

  • 中国におけるアルミニウム産業の略史
    • アルミニウムの生産
    • 大きな飛躍
    • 世界金融危機
  • アルミニウムの消費
    • 金属の価格
    • 歴史、アルミニウム消費、およびGDP成長率
  • 2010年のレビューとアルミニウム産業
    • エネルギー強度
    • 電力価格
    • 生産および生産能力縮小の報告に関する問題
    • 2010年のサマリー

アルミニウムの需要

  • 部門別の消費
    • 建設
    • 輸送
    • 電力
    • 機械
    • パッケージング
    • 耐久消費財
  • 需要の経済モデル
    • 建設が依然としてアルミニウム需要を促進
    • 人口統計上の変化が不動産業を後押し
    • ティア1都市 vs ティア2およびティア3都市
    • 自動車部門
  • アルミニウムの消費と政府の政策
  • アルミニウムの消費と外的要因

アルミニウムの供給

  • 生産能力 vs 生産の測定におけるいくつかの問題
  • 2010年末の総生産能力
  • 中国の生産コスト
    • 電力:背景
    • 電力:中国における生産と供給
    • エネルギー強度目標と電力料金体系の改正
    • 製錬業者の電力コスト
  • アルミナ
    • ボーキサイト
    • アルミナの供給
    • アルミニウム価格モデルにおける変化
  • 炭素
    • アルミニウム電解用コークスの供給
    • コークスの価格
  • 技術と中国のアルミニウム産業
  • 西方への移動
  • 企業構造
    • 民間 vs 国有
  • 将来の供給
  • 生産能力の変化:新たな工場、既存工場の拡張
  • アルミニウムの供給に影響を及ぼす可能性がある要素
    • 政府
    • 環境政策
    • エネルギー政策
    • 投資および財務政策
  • 将来の供給の可能性に影響を及ぼすその他の要素
  • すべてをまとめる:需給の経済モデル
    • アルミニウムの消費
    • アルミニウムの生産能力
    • 供給
    • アルミニウムの平衡感度分析
    • バランス
  • 輸入の可能性がある金属に関するいくつかの見解
  • 結論

用語集

付録

目次
Product Code: 978-1-907607-19-6

Will China really become a net importer of aluminium?

What is the real price of energy in China' s smelters?

What is the outlook for consumption of aluminium in China?

Will China increase or decrease imports of bauxite and alumina?

The Chinese aluminium industry has followed a contrarian path over the last 10 years, growing when the rest of the world was reeling from the Global Financial Crisis, and retreating in 2010 when the rest of the world was rejuvenating.

Estimated aluminium consumption by end use, 2011

Source: Metal Bulletin Research

In 2010, just as the rest of the world' s aluminium industry was emerging from the shadows, China' s aluminium industry was constrained from its patterns of the previous few years. The Central Government ordered small, inefficient smelters to close, and cancelled some preferential electricity pricing mechanisms. Then in June 2010, the Government embarked on an Energy Intensity Reduction program. As a result of this initiative, smelting capacity was reduced or closed altogether.

Chinese Aluminium production year on year (kt)

Source: Antaike, CNIA, AZ China research

The Government' s initiative remained in place until the end of the year, and caused output to fall by the equivalent of more than 1 million tonnes. That in turn led analysts and commentators to predict that ongoing energy restrictions, combined with rising costs for alumina and electricity, would cause the industry to lag behind demand. Some have predicted as much as 5 million tonnes of primary metal would need to be imported by 2015.

This study from Metal Bulletin Research (MBR), A Five Year Outlook for China' s Aluminium Industry, seeks to examine the primary aluminium industry from a “first principles” perspective, looking at both demand and supply to assess the influences on each, and the likely outcomes for both.

Who will benefit from purchasing this study?

This study is aimed at anybody who follows the primary aluminium industry in the world today including:

  • Traders
  • Producers
  • Competitors
  • Analysts

It seems that everybody has an opinion about what is likely to unfold in China' s aluminium industry in the years ahead.

Some analysts have predicted that China will become a net importer of millions of tonnes of primary metal by the year 2015. Some producers have made similar predictions.

Rather than trying to dissect or analyze these forecasts, MBR have gone back to first principles, looking at the empirical evidence. Using the recent history of the industry as a base, we have taken the actual outcomes for 2010, despite it being a year of highs and lows. That gives us a basis on which to start an analysis of the future. To that base, we have added information regarding the likely consumption patterns for the future, and sought to discover all new smelter projects that are currently being built or planned.

This study is based on extensive research by our team of analysts, as well as interviews with leading industry figures. The team conducting this research, and preparing this study, is comprised of industry veterans, chemical engineers, analysts, economists and researchers who together have decades of experience.

Why should you buy this study?

China' s aluminium industry has grown at incredible rates the last ten years. But now many experts are predicting that China will gradually become a net importer of the metal. Some commentators have predicted shortages as high as 5 million tonnes by 2015.

MBR tests these predictions. In this groundbreaking forecast study, you will learn what is really going on inside the industry, including many items of information never made public before.

Key questions addressed in this study include:

  • Why do different agencies in China report different statistics?
  • How is the Chinese aluminium industry responding to the challenges of high electricity costs?
  • Energy intensity restrictions - in 2010 there was a brake on production, but what will happen in 2011 and beyond?

Map of China showing geographic spread of capacity, 2010

Biographies of contributors

Paul Adkins

Paul Adkins has more than 30 years experience in the aluminium industry.

Brian Levich

Brian is the head of research at Metal Bulletin Research. He has undertaken numerous major studies on the global aluminium and raw materials industries and has done extensive consultancy and market research work for a number of major aluminium producers and consumers as well as for financial institutions.

Table of Contents

Introduction

Executive Summary

Background

  • A brief history of China' s aluminium industry
    • Aluminium production
    • The great leap forward
    • Global financial crisis
  • Aluminium consumption
    • Metal prices
    • History and aluminium consumption and GDP growth
  • A review of 2010 and the aluminium industry
    • Energy intensity
    • Electricity pricing
    • Problems with reporting of production and capacity cutbacks
    • Summary of 2010

Aluminium Demand

  • Consumption by sector
    • Construction
    • Transport
    • Electrical
    • Machinery
    • Packaging
    • Durables
  • Economic model of demand
    • Construction is still a main driver in aluminium demand
    • Demographic change will boost real estate
    • Tier 1 cities, versus tier 2 and 3 cities
    • Auto sector
  • Aluminium consumption and government policy
  • Aluminium consumption and external factors

Aluminium Supply

  • Some problems of measuring capacity versus production
  • Total available capacity at the end of 2010
  • Cash cost of production in China
    • Electricity - Background
    • Electricity - Production & Distribution in China
    • Energy intensity target and power tariffs reform
    • Smelters' power costs
  • Alumina
    • Bauxite
    • Alumina supply
    • Changes to aluminium pricing model
  • Carbon
    • Supply of coke for aluminium electrolysis
    • Coke prices
  • Technology and China' s aluminium industry
  • Migration westwards
  • Corporate structure
    • Private versus state owned
  • Future supply
  • Capacity changes - new plants, expansions to existing plants
  • Factors which could affect aluminium supply
    • Government
    • Environmental policy
    • Energy policy
    • Investment and financial policy
  • Other factors affecting possible future supply
  • Bringing it all together - economic model of supply and demand
    • Aluminium consumption
    • Aluminium capacity
    • Supply
    • Aluminium balance sensitivity analysis
    • Balance
  • Some comments on likely imports of metal
  • Conclusions

Glossary of terms

Appendices

  • Appendix A - Complete list of Chinese aluminium smelters (year end 2010)
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