MBR's A Five Year Outlook for China's Aluminium Industry
|発行||Metal Bulletin Research||商品コード||213210|
|中国のアルミニウム産業：5カ年予測 MBR's A Five Year Outlook for China's Aluminium Industry|
|出版日: 2011年04月30日||ページ情報: 英文||
2010年に世界のアルミニウム産業が不況から回復する中、中国政府は小規模で非効率的な製錬業者の廃業を勧告し、それまでの優遇電力価格制度を一部撤廃、6月にはエネルギー強度削減（Energy Intensity Reduction）プログラムに着手しました。このイニシアティブにより、中国における製錬能力は縮小し、100万トン以上の生産減となりました。現在のエネルギー規制と、アルミナおよび電力価格の上昇により、多くのアナリストは、中国のアルミニウム産業が需要を満たすことができなくなると考えており、2015年には最大500万トンの1次金属を輸入する必要が出てくると予測しています。
Will China really become a net importer of aluminium?
What is the real price of energy in China' s smelters?
What is the outlook for consumption of aluminium in China?
Will China increase or decrease imports of bauxite and alumina?
The Chinese aluminium industry has followed a contrarian path over the last 10 years, growing when the rest of the world was reeling from the Global Financial Crisis, and retreating in 2010 when the rest of the world was rejuvenating.
Estimated aluminium consumption by end use, 2011
Source: Metal Bulletin Research
In 2010, just as the rest of the world' s aluminium industry was emerging from the shadows, China' s aluminium industry was constrained from its patterns of the previous few years. The Central Government ordered small, inefficient smelters to close, and cancelled some preferential electricity pricing mechanisms. Then in June 2010, the Government embarked on an Energy Intensity Reduction program. As a result of this initiative, smelting capacity was reduced or closed altogether.
Chinese Aluminium production year on year (kt)
Source: Antaike, CNIA, AZ China research
The Government' s initiative remained in place until the end of the year, and caused output to fall by the equivalent of more than 1 million tonnes. That in turn led analysts and commentators to predict that ongoing energy restrictions, combined with rising costs for alumina and electricity, would cause the industry to lag behind demand. Some have predicted as much as 5 million tonnes of primary metal would need to be imported by 2015.
This study from Metal Bulletin Research (MBR), A Five Year Outlook for China' s Aluminium Industry, seeks to examine the primary aluminium industry from a “first principles” perspective, looking at both demand and supply to assess the influences on each, and the likely outcomes for both.
This study is aimed at anybody who follows the primary aluminium industry in the world today including:
It seems that everybody has an opinion about what is likely to unfold in China' s aluminium industry in the years ahead.
Some analysts have predicted that China will become a net importer of millions of tonnes of primary metal by the year 2015. Some producers have made similar predictions.
Rather than trying to dissect or analyze these forecasts, MBR have gone back to first principles, looking at the empirical evidence. Using the recent history of the industry as a base, we have taken the actual outcomes for 2010, despite it being a year of highs and lows. That gives us a basis on which to start an analysis of the future. To that base, we have added information regarding the likely consumption patterns for the future, and sought to discover all new smelter projects that are currently being built or planned.
This study is based on extensive research by our team of analysts, as well as interviews with leading industry figures. The team conducting this research, and preparing this study, is comprised of industry veterans, chemical engineers, analysts, economists and researchers who together have decades of experience.
China' s aluminium industry has grown at incredible rates the last ten years. But now many experts are predicting that China will gradually become a net importer of the metal. Some commentators have predicted shortages as high as 5 million tonnes by 2015.
MBR tests these predictions. In this groundbreaking forecast study, you will learn what is really going on inside the industry, including many items of information never made public before.
Map of China showing geographic spread of capacity, 2010
Paul Adkins has more than 30 years experience in the aluminium industry.
Brian is the head of research at Metal Bulletin Research. He has undertaken numerous major studies on the global aluminium and raw materials industries and has done extensive consultancy and market research work for a number of major aluminium producers and consumers as well as for financial institutions.