Requiem for the Television Tablets, OTT, faster broadband to make the TV normal unrecognizable
|テレビへのレクイエム：TVを正常に認識させないタブレット・OTT・高速ブロードバンド Requiem for the Television Tablets, OTT, faster broadband to make the TV normal unrecognizable|
|出版日: 2013年12月30日||ページ情報: 英文||
Rethink Technology Research has begun to pioneer a series of forecasts that focus on deep industry changes, we specialize in asking questions about when an industry starts and ends or goes into its next phase, and when it is going through a major contraction. Forecasters are pretty poor at forecasting market decline and yet many technology markets are on the verge of inevitable decline.
Major contractions appear in an industry, usually at a time when disruptive innovation occurs, and this can come during a period of uncertainty or technology transition, such as the in-dustry shift from analog to digital which heralded Apple's ar-rival in consumer electronics, or when a particular player changes the rules with a new class of product.
One trigger for disruptive innovation is when something comes along that is half as good, but costs a tenth of the price, and this is the case when tablets are used for TV viewing, making it a killer app, increasing witnessed in the US and Western Europe. Other things which have changed the rules inside a technology sector include the introduction of touch screens to handsets, the arrival of the CMOS RF tuners in TV sets, set tops and DOCSIS modems. Another similar event on the near horizon (which we will deal with in our next report) is the emergence of WiFi as a key driving force for the cellular market.
At these points in technology history, there are structural changes in the sector eco-system and new market leaders emerge. The old rules no longer apply and some leaders fall by the wayside. Famous brand names disappear or at least go into reverse, while new names flourish. One of the problems
of trying to forecast during these periods is that the old methods of plotting the existing dots in a linear fashion, and extending them, no longer work.
All we can hope to do is to describe the future market shape and point to those who will lead it, and put some rough numbers to plot the order of magnitude of the changes. It is important to scope out the level of decline in the existing market. This can give market players the right clues to what is going on and help them survive. It is not a good idea to spend on marketing when R&D needs your dollars. One of the worst feelings in the world for an ex-ecutive trying to plan a business is to continue to invest in the past, when the future is beckoning urgently.
Disruption forecasting will be with us for a while, as Re-think has identified at least 6 major hurdles in the way of linear market progression, in the TV, pay TV, broadband, broadcast and cellular sectors. Things are not going to be normal in these markets for some time, which is why ex-ecutives have stopped buying conventional market studies. The best thing affected players can do is to try and picture the shape of the market in the future and position them-selves with the right product lines and the right cash re-serves, and a cost structure for survival, and to reset the ex-pectations of their shareholders around the new truths that dictate the new normal.