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新しいRANの予測:キャリアはいかにデータの大氾濫を収益化するのか

Forecasting The New RAN: How carriers will monetize the data deluge

発行 Maravedis, Inc. 商品コード 272294
出版日 ページ情報 英文 95 Pages
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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本日の銀行送金レート: 1USD=115.27円で換算しております。
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新しいRANの予測:キャリアはいかにデータの大氾濫を収益化するのか Forecasting The New RAN: How carriers will monetize the data deluge
出版日: 2013年04月01日 ページ情報: 英文 95 Pages
概要

2018年までに、モバイルデータトラフィックは35倍まで増加する見込みですが、データ収益はわずか2.5%の上昇に留まると見られています。このことは、モバイルオペレーターがデータ配信コストを削減すると同時に、付加価値または新アプリケーションの考案によるサービスの値上げを余儀なくしています。これらの重要な問題によって、現在のアクセスネットワークへのアプローチは再考が必要とされており、対処に向けた主な2つの動向は、高度な分散化・クラウドRANをサポートするためのマクロセル分解と、屋内・屋外で容量を追加するためのパブリックアクセススモールセルの大規模な導入です。

当レポートでは、新しい無線アクセスネットワーク(RAN)アプローチの主要動向について分析・予測しており、キャリアWi-Fi、スマートアンテナ、HwtNet開発およびLTE-Advanced機能の導入といった重要な要素を取り上げ、ティア1モバイルキャリア35社の定性分析、スペクトル帯、TDD・FDDモード、セルサイト規模およびアンテナタイプに関するLTE導入パターンの分析、スモールセル・マクロセル装置の市場規模・シェア・予測などをまとめ、概略以下の構成でお届けします。

エグゼクティブサマリー

第1章 RANの進化

  • 新トポロジーのビジネスへの影響
  • 主なRAN動向

第2章 パブリックアクセススモールセルの主要動向

  • スモールセルネットワークの設計
    • サイト問題
    • RANシェアリング
    • バックホール
    • スペクトル問題
    • ネットワーク管理
    • 相互運用性

第3章 スモールセル予測

  • 出荷台数
  • 出荷高:技術別
  • 出荷高:地域別
  • 屋内vs.屋外
  • 都市vs.郊外vs.地方
  • メトロセルの市場額

第4章 新しいマクロセルの進化

  • リモートラジオユニット
  • アンテナ/ラジオ統合
  • 分解化BTS・lightRadio

第5章 マクロセル予測

  • 出荷台数
  • TDD vs. FDD
  • 分散型キットを含めたマクロセル市場規模
  • 世界のマクロ・マイクロBTSインストールベース

第6章 LTEにおけるスペクトル問題

第7章 新興のRAN技術

  • クラウド−RAN
  • スマートアンテナ、MIMOおよびAAS

第8章 LTE-Advanced :どの機能が採用されるか?

  • LTEのリリース
  • 主要機能を支えるBTS
  • 初期のLTE-A移行者

第9章 HetNetにおけるWi-Fi

  • HetNetにおけるキャリアWi-Fi
  • Wi-Fiオフロード
  • キャリアWi-Fiの主要ベンダー
  • HotSpot 2.0
  • スモールセルとWi-Fiのコンバージェンス

第10章 新しいRANベンダーの情勢

  • ベンダーのランキング:スモールセル
  • 市場シェア:スモールセル
  • ベンダーのランキング:マクロ・クラウド
  • 市場シェア:マクロ装置
  • ベンダー評価・SWOT
    • Ericsson
    • Cisco/Ubiquisys
    • Alcatel-Lucent
    • Nokia Siemens Networks
    • Samsung
    • Huawei
    • ZTE
    • NEC
    • Ruckus Wireless
    • Ip.access
    • Airspan Networks

第11章 結論:ネットワークはソフトウェアへ動く

図表リスト

目次

Abstract

About the report

The biggest challenge for mobile operators in this decade is to narrow the gulf that has opened up between data demand and available wireless capacity, with mobile traffic set to rise by 35 times by 2018, while the revenues generated from that data could rise by just 2.5%.

This makes it vital for mobile operators to slash the costs of delivering data while charging more for their services, by adding value or devising new applications. Both those critical challenges will require a complete rethink of current approaches to the access network. The two main trends will be the deconstruction of the macrocell, to support highly distributed and Cloud RANs; and the adoption of public access small cells in large numbers, to add capacity indoors and outdoors.

This report analyzes and forecasts both those key trends in depth for the period 2012 to 2018, including important elements like Carrier Wi-Fi, smart antennas, HetNet developments and adoption of LTE-Advanced features. It is based on Maravedis-Rethink's ongoing tracking of the top 100 4G operators in the world, in its MOSA

Mobile Operator Strategy Analysis) service; in-depth qualitative studies of 35 tier one mobile carriers; extensive interviews with the entire RAN vendor base and supply chain' and sophisticated modeling.

The result is a detailed examination of the technologies carriers will deploy in their new radio networks in the period to 2018, and the business benefits they expect to gain. There is in-depth quantitative and qualitative analysis of operator strategies and the technologies available to them, particularly in the most disruptive elements of the new network - metrocells, distributed base stations, software programmable BTS, and the beginnings of the software defined network.

There is also analysis of the patterns of deployment in terms of spectrum bands; TDD and FDD modes; cell site size; antenna type; and which LTE-A capabilities will gain prominence. Based on all this analysis, the report provides market sizes, market share calculations and forecasts for small cell and macrocell equipment.

Executive Summary

The 'perfect storm' which faces mobile operators round the world is well documented. It can be summarized as:

  • Exploding data and signaling volumes
  • Declining voice and messaging revenue
  • Stagnant or declining ARPU
  • Declining revenue per Mbyte

Just to stand still, operators need to invest in networks which can support the data volumes and user experience demanded by users, but cannot be certain these will guarantee higher ARPUs and profits, when much of the usage is over-the-top.

Without a radical new approach to how networks are built and planned, operators will continue to see a divergence between data growth - which will increase by about 35 times between 2013 and 2018 - and revenue growth (only 2.5% in the same period, if the current network topologies and services were retained).

This report examines the ways in which a radical new way of building the mobile network will help narrow the gap between traffic and revenue, and how that will shake up the supplier rankings.

The new RAN

Hallmarks of the new RAN will include:

  • Increasing deconstruction of the base station to distribute processing effort efficiently and reduce cost
  • Smaller and smaller cells, to maximize capacity by moving it closer to the user
  • Multiple layers of base stations within each macrocell, often using different frequencies and air interfaces within one cell to deliver more capacity
  • Extensive offload of macro network data to Wi-Fi and other technologies
  • Flexible backhaul techniques
  • New, sometimes unconventional spectrum bands and carrier aggregation
  • Increasing investment in software technologies to make networks more efficient and intelligent - from adaptive networking tools to fully fledged SDN (software defined networking).

These add up to two key and related trends - the distributed network and the small cell. The logical extension of these trends will be two radical network designs which will be fully enabled by LTE-Advanced - the heterogeneous network (HetNet) and the Cloud RAN. Both of these will be firmly on the cellcos' roadmaps from late 2013 with the beginnings of LTE-Advanced upgrades.

The 100 mobile operators tracked by Maravedis-Rethink's MOSA (Mobile Operator Strategy Analysis) service are targeting an average reduction of over one-third (35%) in their cost per Gbyte by deploying the new topologies, compared to what they expected using conventional techniques. As small cells, distributed RAN and HetNet are rolled out widely, the cost of delivering a gigabyte of data can be reduced from almost $40 on a traditionally planned LTE network (or almost $70 on HSPA) to $26.

Small cells:

Small cells are central to the new thinking of the mobile broadband RAN, but many challenges must be overcome before metrocell deployment becomes mainstream. However, there will be significant growth in small cell deployment for public access, both indoors and outdoors. In the early phase, this will be driven by a few pioneers like Softbank Mobile in Japan and SK Telecom in Korea but by 2018 metrocells will be a standard element of carrier build-outs, thanks to lower prices and more robust standards.

An important decision for operators is whether small cells will be primarily deployed indoors, to boost public access capacity and coverage in large buildings and venues, or outdoors, where the class 'lamppost' model comes into play - creating a layer of metrocells close to the ground, typically mounted on street furniture or low buildings. In the first wave the emphasis is on indoor cells, because the majority of heavy mobile data usage takes place indoors and site planning is simpler. By 2018, however, outdoor cells will account for 60% of the market.

Another factor with significant impact on the pattern of investment in metrocells is the urban/rural mix in a carrier's base. Metrocells are a heavily urban phenomenon throughout the study period, as their primary role is to supplement capacity in the most congested areas, and their secondary remit is to deliver differentiators - personalized services, improved quality of experience - where there is the largest number of high value consumers.

All this activity will create a market worth $13bn a year at its value peak in 2016-2017. After this, although deployment units will continue to rise, intense price pressure will drive down overall CAPEX investment in metrocells.

The new macrocell:

The importance of the small cell should not imply that the traditional cell is going away. Growth in macrocells will be slow compared to that in small cells, but will continue and will be stimulated by the rise of new base station form factors to address larger sites. These will start with the commonly deployed remote radio head (RRH) and evolve towards integrated antenna/radio units such as Ericsson's AIR. Baseband processing is separated, in these examples, and actual site equipment gets smaller, cheaper and lower power.

However, there is significant investment in virtualized baseband processing units - initially on or near the site, but later on remote servers and in the cloud (Cloud-RAN). This means that numbers of deployments to macro sites remain high throughout the period - though in decline after 2016 - but the shape of the equipment is very different. A significant proportion of CAPEX will go on replacing traditional base stations with the new designs, to accommodate easier migration to LTE, LTE-Advanced and new frequency bands.

Today, the operator checklist for the macrocell is:

  • Multimode, multiband base stations
  • Software programmable to accommodate the different options
  • Can support alternative energy sources
  • Have radio heads remote from the baseband, but tight integration of radio and antenna
  • Support active antennas
  • Can be flexibly incorporated into HetNets
  • Can be mounted in a variety of locations from towers to roofs to lamp poles
  • Baseband processing can be carried out in a distributed fashion or in the cloud
  • Intelligent traffic management is supported from the edge to the core

Each of these elements and trends is analyzed in the report.

Emerging RAN technologies

Small cells are not the only technology which, though in their infancy in 2013, have the potential to disrupt the way RANs are planned and deployed. The report also analyzes other key trends which will change the shape of the radio network by 2018. The most disruptive, but widely accepted by operators, are Cloud-RAN and various smart antenna technologies, particularly advanced MIMO and, on the horizon AAS.

From 2013, LTE-Advanced features will start to affect the pattern of the new RAN too. LTE-Advanced is not a 'big bang' upgrade, but a diverse menu of enhancements, most optional - some of which are well on the way to commercial availability, but others which will never be deployed at all. The report analyzes which options will be critical to new network design and which will be ignored by operators.

Apart from higher data rates, carrier aggregation and SON features (such as automatic neighbor relations based on the X2 standard) emerge as the features most important, in the 3-year timeframe, to a successful network in terms of performance and business model.

Base station vendors are starting to launch equipment which can support at least some elements of Release 10, most commonly CA and advanced MIMO. Some of the capabilities will be stimulated particularly by the move to small cells, especially eICIC and SON features.

By 2018, carrier aggregation, eICIC, CoMP and 4x4 MIMO will be almost universal in new base stations (88% or above); LTE Broadcast will be commonly deployed (75% of cells). Other features will be less prevalent because they apply to more specialist use cases, as with LTE Relay, or there is significant carrier caution, as in 8x8 MIMO. Release 11 features are starting to become mainstream from 2017 and are present in almost 60% of new base stations shipped in 2018.

RAN vendor landscape

The new shape of the radio network will force vendors to respond with their most radical portfolio revamps in years, and their success in doing so will determine the supplier landscape of 2018 - which could be significantly different from that of the 3G world. Smaller players will either be acquired (as Ubiquisys already has been by Cisco) or find major partners to bring their innovations to the required scale. Ericsson, the slowest to embrace the small cell trend, may well seek a partner or acquisition, for instance. The biggest shake-up is likely to be triggered by the entry of Cisco into the access network, with its own small cells and its strategic purchases of RAN technologies like those of Ubiquisys and Intucell.

Small cells are having a disruptive effect on traditional vendor business models by importing consumer-grade economics and new supply chains into their markets.

Maravedis-Rethink analyzes vendors against a set of metrics in its Imago rankings system. In the metrocell ranking, we find that Alcatel-Lucent and Samsung are best placed to build market share in public access metrocells, though Ubiquisys rates most highly for product innovation.

Full vendor SWOT assessments are included for each major OEM in the report.

The final disruption to the base station market will come when telecoms follows the PC model - commoditized hardware, standardized protocols, and functionality added and modified in software. This sounds radical in a base station equipment market which is still worth billions of dollars a year, but by 2018, it will be very real.

Table of Contents

Executive summary

  • Methodology and definitions
  • Introduction: Drivers for the new network

1. The evolution of the RAN

  • a. Business impact of the new topologies
  • b. Key RAN trends to 2018

2. Key trends in public access small cells

  • a. Design of small cell networks
    • i. Site issues
    • ii. RAN sharing
    • iii. Backhaul
    • iv. Spectrum issues
    • v. Network management
    • vi. Interoperability

3. Small cell forecasts

  • a. Unit shipments to 2018
  • b. Shipments by technology
  • c. Shipments by region
  • d. Indoor versus outdoor
  • e. Urban versus suburban versus rural
  • f. Market value of metrocells to 2018

4. The evolution of the new macrocell

  • a. Remote radio units
  • b. Antenna/radio integration
  • c. The deconstructed BTS and lightRadio

5. Macrocell forecasts

  • a. Unit shipments to 2018
  • b. TDD versus FDD
  • c. Macrocell market size including distributed kit
  • d. Global installed base of macro and micro BTS

6. Spectrum challenges in LTE

7. Emerging RAN technologies

  • a. Cloud-RAN
  • b. Smart antennas, MIMO and AAS

8. LTE-Advanced - which features will be deployed?

  • a. LTE releases
  • b. BTS support for key features
    • i. Carrier aggregation
    • ii. eICIC
    • iii. LTE Relay
    • iv. LTE Broadcast
  • c. Early LTE-A movers

9. Wi-Fi in the HetNet

  • a. Carrier Wi-Fi in the HetNet
  • b. Wi-Fi offload
  • c. Carrier Wi-Fi key vendors
  • d. HotSpot 2.0
  • e. Convergence of small cells and Wi-Fi

10. The new RAN vendor landscape

  • a. Vendor ranking - small cells
  • b. Market share small cells
  • c. Vendor ranking - macro and cloud
  • d. Market share macro equipment
  • e. Vendor assessments and SWOT
    • i. Ericsson
    • ii. Cisco/Ubiquisys
    • iii. Alcatel-Lucent
    • iv. Nokia Siemens Networks
    • v. Samsung
    • vi. Huawei
    • vii. ZTE
    • viii. NEC
    • ix. Ruckus Wireless
    • x. Ip.access
    • xi. Airspan Networks

11. Conclusion - the network moves to software

List of figures:

  • Increase in mobile data traffic versus revenue to 2018
  • Capacity gains from air interface upgrade alone
  • Impact of the new topologies on data cost and revenue
  • Key challenges of deploying small cells
  • Small cell deployments by band
  • Small cells in separate bands from macrocells
  • Small cell unit shipments to 2018
  • Small cell shipments by technology
  • By region
  • Regional split in 2018
  • By indoor/outdoor
  • By urban/rural
  • Market value of public access small cells to 2018
  • Market value by region
  • Evolution of the base station
  • The software defined base station
  • Macrocell unit shipments including site upgrades
  • Macrocell and microcells shipments by technology
  • By TDD/FDD
  • Macro equipment market size to 2018 including cloud
  • Value of macro base station market
  • Installed macrocell base to 2018
  • LTE base station shipments by band
  • Traditional versus C-RAN architecture
  • Cloud-RAN equipment capex to 2018
  • The evolution of AAS
  • The number of macrocells shipping with AAS to 2018
  • Most important LTE-A features to carriers
  • LTE-A features supported by base stations to 2018
  • Carrier aggregation methods
  • eMBMS architecture
  • Wi-Fi offload levels
  • Convergence of vendors in the metrocell space
  • Vendor rankings - small cells
  • Market share small cells
  • Vendor rankings - macro site equipment
  • Market share macrocells
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