ワクチン・医薬品の世界市場への新型コロナウイルス感染症 (Covid-19) の影響：将来予測 (2025年まで)

世界の新型コロナウイルス感染症 (Covid-19) ワクチンの市場規模は、2022年には22億7300万米ドル、2025年には14億0100万米ドルに達する、と予測されています。また、Covid-19の治療薬の市場規模は、2020年には1億6500万米ドル、2025年には200万米ドルに達する見通しです。Covid-19の場合、コンパッショネート・ユース (未承認薬の例外的・人道的利用) や、他の感染症 (SARS、MERS、H1N1など) の治療で用いられている回復者由来血清療法などの代替療法が、現在利用可能な治療手段となっています。また、世界各国の政府・企業の協力が円滑に進めば、治療薬の開発や市場成長が促進されると期待されています。ただし、集団免疫や、ワクチン・治療薬の有効性の不確実さといった諸要素が、市場成長の妨げとなる可能性もあります。

当レポートでは、新型コロナウイルス感染症 (Covid-19) 向けワクチン・治療薬の市場の将来展望について分析し、現在有力紙されている治療法や今後の開発・治験の可能性、将来 (承認後) の市場規模の動向見通し、市場の背景事情、大手企業の開発・販売体制、といった情報を取りまとめてお届けいたします。

第1章 イントロダクション

第2章 COVID-19：ワクチンの開発

• ワクチン
  • ワクチンの現在のパイプライン
  • 競争環境 (ワクチン開発に従事している大手企業)
  • マクロ経済指標
  • Covid-19ワクチン承認後のシナリオ

第3章 COVID-19：治療薬の開発

• 競争環境 (医薬品市場)
  • Covid-19治療薬の開発に従事している大手企業
  • マクロ経済指標
  • Covid-19治療薬承認後のシナリオ
  • Covid-19治療薬市場の将来予測

LIST OF TABLES

• TABLE 1: PIPELINE OF VACCINES FOR THE TREATMENT OF COVID-19
• TABLE 2: INCIDENCE OF COVID-19 IN DIFFERENT COUNTRIES
• TABLE 3: MAJOR INTERVENTIONAL VACCINE MANUFACTURING EFFORTS
• TABLE 4: COVID-19 VACCINES MARKET, BY REGION, 2022-2025 (USD MILLION)
• TABLE 5: COVID-19 VACCINES MARKET, BY REGION, 2022-2025 (USD MILLION)
• TABLE 6: COVID-19 VACCINES MARKET, BY REGION, 2022-2025 (USD MILLION)
• TABLE 7: COVID-19 THERAPEUTIC DRUG PIPELINE (CLINICAL)
• TABLE 8: NOTABLE FIRST-TIME US APPROVAL DECISIONS PENDING IN MARCH 2020
• TABLE 9: SUPPLEMENTARY AND OTHER NOTABLE APPROVAL DECISIONS PENDING IN MARCH 2020
• TABLE 10: NOTABLE FIRST-TIME US APPROVAL DECISIONS DUE IN APRIL 2020
• TABLE 11: OTHER NOTABLE APPROVAL DECISIONS TO BE TAKEN IN APRIL 2020
• TABLE 12: COVID-19 DRUGS MARKET, BY REGION, 2020-2025 (USD MILLION)
• TABLE 13: COVID-19 DRUGS MARKET, BY REGION, 2020-2025 (USD MILLION)
• TABLE 14: COVID-19 DRUGS MARKET, BY REGION, 2020-2025 (USD MILLION)

LIST OF FIGURES

• FIGURE 1: COVID-19 THE GLOBAL PROPAGATION
• FIGURE 2: COVID-19 PROPAGATION: SELECT COUNTRIES
• FIGURE 3: COUNTRIES BEGIN WITH SIMILAR TRAJECTORIES BUT CURVES DEVIATE BASED ON MEASURES TAKEN
• FIGURE 4: REVISED GDP FORECASTS FOR SELECT G20 COUNTRIES IN 2020
• FIGURE 5: CRITERIA IMPACTING THE GLOBAL ECONOMY
• FIGURE 6: SCENARIOS IN TERMS OF RECOVERY OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY
• FIGURE 7: PIPELINE OF COVID-19 VACCINE CANDIDATES, BY TECHNOLOGY PLATFORM
• FIGURE 8: COVID-19 VACCINE DEVELOPERS, BY TYPE AND GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION
• FIGURE 9: COVID-19 IMPACT ON VACCINE SUPPLY
• FIGURE 10: EPIDEMIOLOGY MODEL (ASSUMPTION BASIS)
• FIGURE 11: MOLECULES TARGETING COVID-19, BY CLINICAL PHASE
• FIGURE 12: MAJOR LOCATIONS WHERE CLINICAL TRIALS ARE BEING CONDUCTED
• FIGURE 13: SHARE OF MAJOR MOLECULAR ENTITIES UNDER DEVELOPMENT FOR COVID-19
• FIGURE 14: SHARE OF MOLECULES UNDER PRECLINICAL DEVELOPMENT FOR COVID-19
• FIGURE 15: SHARE OF REPURPOSED DRUGS VS. NEW ENTITIES

"The global COVID 19 vaccines market is projected to grow at a CAGR of -14.9% during the forecast period."

The global COVID-19 vaccines market is projected to reach USD 1,401 million by 2025 from USD 2,273 million in 2022, at a CAGR of -14.9% during the forecast period. The growth of the global COVID-19 vaccines market is majorly attributed to the increasing number of people infected with COVID-19 and growing funding for vaccine development.

"The global COVID 19 drugs market is projected to grow at a CAGR of -57.8% during the forecast period."

The global COVID-19 drugs market is projected to reach USD 2 million by 2025 from USD 165 million in 2020, at a CAGR of -57.8% during the forecast period. The growth of COVID-19 drugs market is attributed primarily to use of repurposed drugs for compassionate use and the emergence of alternative therapies such as convalescent plasma therapy which were used earlier for treating epidemic diseases such as SARS, MERS, and H1N1. Furthermore, collaborations between global organizations and governments of various nations to promote the supply of essential drugs and medical supplies will fuel market growth. However, factors such as herd immunity, and uncertainty over the efficacy of vaccines and drugs are expected to hinder the market growth.

Currently, the R&D landscape for COVID-19 vaccines includes 115 vaccine candidates.

The most advanced candidates that have recently moved into clinical development are:

• mRNA-1273 from Moderna
• Ad5-nCoV from CanSino Biologics
• INO-4800 from Inovio
• LV-SMENP-DC and pathogen-specific aAPC from Shenzhen Geno-Immune Medical Institute

Funding from global governments and foundations is promoting the growth of the market

Incentives are needed to engage manufacturers for the large-scale capacity to guarantee sufficient production of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines. In line with this, various global organizations have come forward to expedite the process, such as Gavi, CEPI, and WHO. However, considering the pandemic scenario of COVID-19, much stronger initiatives are required.

In April 2020, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation plans to help fund factories for seven promising vaccines, even before seeing conclusive data. The foundation aims to help scale up manufacturing during testing, rather than after the vaccines have passed the trials.

Besides the most promising Moderna program, several other big pharma companies are involved in COVID-19 vaccine work. Johnson & Johnson has pledged a manufacturing scale-up to 1 billion doses for its federally partnered program. Meanwhile, Sanofi has two partnerships underway-one with the federal government and another with Translate Bio.

Vaccine manufacturing ramp-up to drive the growth further

While global drug makers are pouring massive resources into developing targeted therapies and vaccines, contract development and manufacturing organizations (CDMOs) are finding ways to ramp up the production of vaccines. In line with this, a new CDMO from Belgium's Univercells is offering its expertise to help drug makers scale up their manufacturing.

Pfizer and BioNTech have laid out plans for manufacturing their candidates for trials and producing millions of doses if trials succeed. The companies expect to have millions of doses of a COVID-19 vaccine ready to go by year-end if the companies begin human testing as planned by late April. Pfizer and BioNTech are hoping to advance multiple mRNA vaccine candidates.

Currently, around 155 molecules are under clinical investigation, and approximately 45 molecules are under preclinical development to be targeted against COVID-19. In this list, four promising drugs have been repurposed for use against COVID-19.

• Remdesivir
• Chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine
• Lopinavir and ritonavir (and that same combination plus interferon-beta)
• An immune system messenger that can help stop the multiplication of viruses.

Researchers and physicians in several countries are focusing on various other existing drugs to examine their potential to treat COVID-19. Chinese authorities, which have been dealing with the virus longer, are recommending Arbidol (umifenovir), which has not been approved in Western countries, as well as old antivirals ribavirin and interferon-alpha. Similarly, Avigan (favipiravir) by Fujifilm has shown promise in the treatment of COVID-19.

As the maximum number of molecules are repurposed drugs that are already approved for other infections and inflammatory diseases, higher stages of development (namely phase 2 trials) hold the largest share. China, along with other Asian countries, holds the largest share of the number of clinical trials being conducted, followed by Europe and the US. Small molecules hold the largest share, followed by monoclonal antibodies and plasma and cell therapy.

AI-powered technologies are making the drug discovery process more efficient and substantially improve success rates at the early stages of drug development. Artificial intelligence algorithms ingest and analyze a vast amount of information and can identify potential drug candidates in lesser time. Such factors will expedite the drug development process.

A breakdown of the primary participants referred to for this report is provided below:

• By Company Type (Supply-side): Tier 1: 29%, Tier 2: 37%, and Tier 3: 34%

• By Category (Demand-side): Pharmaceutical & Biotechnology Companies: 55%, Hospital & Reference Laboratories: 35%, and Academic & Research Institutes: 10%

• By Designation: C-level: 35%, Director-level: 25%, and Others: 40%

• By Region: North America: 35%, Europe: 32%, Asia: 22%, and the RoW: 11%

Some of the major players in the COVID-19 vaccines market include: Pfizer Inc. (US), Johnson & Johnson Services, Inc (US), GlaxoSmithKline plc. (UK), Sanofi (France) Serum Institute of India (India), among others. Major players in the COVID-19 drugs market include Gilead Sciences, Inc. (US), Sanofi (France), F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd (Switzerland), Merck KGaA (Germany), and Janssen Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Belgium), among others.

Research Coverage:

This report describes and studies the global COVID-19 vaccines and drugs market, current pipeline of vaccines and drugs by phase by companies, competitive landscape, a view point on COVID-19 pipeline, the impact of COVID-19 on other vaccines and drugs in the portfolio/other under development vaccines and drugs, macroeconomic indicators (drivers, restraints, new opportunities), post-COVID-19 approval scenario, challenges in approval/production/supply, strategies to overcome challenges, historical examples (SARS, MERS, Ebola, H1N1), new strategies, strategies to ramp up production at pandemic level, historical examples, and new strategies.

Reasons to Buy the Report:

The report can help established firms as well as new entrants/smaller firms to gauge the pulse of the market, which, in turn, would help them garner a greater share. Firms purchasing the report could use one, or a combination of the below mentioned five strategies.

This report provides insights into the following pointers:

• Market Penetration: Comprehensive information on the developmental pipeline of the top players in the COVID-19 vaccines and drugs market. The report analyzes the current pipeline of vaccines and drugs by phase by companies, competitive landscape, a view point on COVID-19 pipeline, the impact of COVID-19 on other vaccines, and drugs in the portfolio/other under development vaccines and drugs and regional analysis.

• Product Development/Innovation: Detailed insights on upcoming vaccines and drugs based on innovative technologies, research and development activities, and product launches in the COVID-19 vaccines and drugs market.

• Market Development: Comprehensive information about lucrative markets. The report analyzes the markets for vaccines and drugs across regions.

• Market Diversification: Exhaustive information about developmental products, recent developments, and investments in the COVID-19 vaccines and drugs market.

• Competitive Assessment: In-depth assessment of strategies, products, distribution networks, and manufacturing capabilities of the leading players in the COVID-19 vaccines and drugs market.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 INTRODUCTION

• 1.1 COVID-19 HEALTH ASSESSMENT
• 1.2 COVID-19 ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT
• 1.3 COVID-19 IMPACT ON THE ECONOMY-SCENARIO ASSESSMENT

2 COVID-19: DEVELOPMENT OF VACCINES

• 2.1 VACCINES
  • 2.1.1 CURRENT PIPELINE OF VACCINES
  • 2.1.2 COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE (TOP PLAYERS DEVELOPING VACCINES)
    • 2.1.2.1 Viewpoint on the COVID-19 pipeline
  • 2.1.3 MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
    • 2.1.3.1 Drivers
      • 2.1.3.1.1 Increasing prevalence of infectious diseases
      • 2.1.3.1.2 Growing funding for vaccine development
    • 2.1.3.2 Restraints
      • 2.1.3.2.1 High cost of vaccine development
      • 2.1.3.2.2 Drugs and alternate therapies under development
      • 2.1.3.2.3 Compassionate use
      • 2.1.3.2.4 Immunization strategies
    • 2.1.3.3 New opportunities
      • 2.1.3.3.1 Collaborations among global organizations and vaccine manufacturers
    • 2.1.3.4 Challenges
      • 2.1.3.4.1 Herd immunity
  • 2.1.4 POST-COVID-19 VACCINE APPROVAL SCENARIO
    • 2.1.4.1 Challenges in vaccine approval/production/supply
      • 2.1.4.1.1 Are companies taking enough advantage of artificial intelligence (AI) to fast track vaccine/drug approval? (medium criticality)
      • 2.1.4.1.2 Can production for pandemics be a challenge? (high criticality)
      • 2.1.4.1.3 The world needs a vaccine but who needs it the most?(medium criticality)
      • 2.1.4.1.4 Global organizations are expediting clinical research, but will site and logistical challenges cause delays? (high criticality)
    • 2.1.4.2 Strategies to overcome challenges
      • 2.1.4.2.1 Collaborations among global organizations
      • 2.1.4.2.2 Establishing reliable supply chains
      • 2.1.4.2.3 Historic examples (SARS, MERS, EBOLA, and H1N1)
      • 2.1.4.2.4 Supply and demand issues during H1N1 vaccination
      • 2.1.4.2.5 Challenges in supply projections
      • 2.1.4.2.6 Recommendations from the H1N1 vaccination program
      • 2.1.4.2.7 Strategies adopted by several pharmaceutical companies to combat the H1N1 pandemic
      • 2.1.4.2.8 Historic examples
      • 2.1.4.2.9 New strategies
    • 2.1.4.3 COVID-19 VACCINES MARKET (OPTIMISTIC, PESSIMISTIC, AND REALISTIC)
      • 2.1.4.3.1 Market size estimation for optimistic scenario
      • 2.1.4.3.2 Market size estimation for realistic scenario
      • 2.1.4.3.3 Market size estimation for pessimistic scenario

3 COVID-19: DEVELOPMENT OF THERAPEUTIC DRUGS

• 3.1 COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE (DRUGS MARKET)
  • 3.1.1 TOP PLAYERS INVOLVED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF DRUGS FOR COVID-19
    • 3.1.1.1 Sanofi and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals
    • 3.1.1.2 Oncoimmune
    • 3.1.1.3 Gilead Sciences
    • 3.1.1.4 Sanofi and the National Institute of Respiratory Diseases (Mexico)
    • 3.1.1.5 Roche
    • 3.1.1.6 CytoDyn
    • 3.1.1.7 Merck KGaA
    • 3.1.1.8 Janssen Pharmaceuticals
    • 3.1.1.9 Masterlek
    • 3.1.1.10 Fujifilm
    • 3.1.1.11 Ridgeback Biotherapeutics LP
    • 3.1.1.12 AbbVie
    • 3.1.1.13 Viewpoint on COVID-19 therapeutic drug pipeline
    • 3.1.1.14 Impact of COVID-19 on other products in the portfolio/other under-development products
  • 3.1.2 MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
    • 3.1.2.1 Drivers
      • 3.1.2.1.1 Alternate therapies targeting COVID-19
      • 3.1.2.1.2 Adoption of organ-on-chip models in the development of drugs targeting COVID-19
      • 3.1.2.1.3 Compassionate use
      • 3.1.2.1.4 Collaborations and other developments promoting COVID-19 drugs
    • 3.1.2.2 Restraints
      • 3.1.2.2.1 Herd immunity and new vaccines under development
      • 3.1.2.2.2 Uncertainty in the efficacy and side effects of repurposed malaria drugs targeting COVID-19
    • 3.1.2.3 New opportunities
      • 3.1.2.3.1 Adoption of new tools to expedite drug discovery
      • 3.1.2.3.2 Investments in real-world evidence by pharmaceutical companies
    • 3.1.2.4 Trends
      • 3.1.2.4.1 Changes in IPR to promote the supply of essential drugs and medical supplies
  • 3.1.3 POST COVID-19 DRUG APPROVAL SCENARIO
    • 3.1.3.1 Challenges in drug approval/production/supply
      • 3.1.3.1.1 In the case of treatments being available for COVID-19, will they be available to the people in need? (high criticality)
      • 3.1.3.1.2 Orphan drug status, market exclusivity - boon or bane? (medium criticality)
      • 3.1.3.1.3 The world needs drugs targeting COVID-19, but who needs them the most? (high criticality)
    • 3.1.3.2 Strategies to overcome challenges
      • 3.1.3.2.1 Production turbocharge of COVID-19 hopeful drugs
      • 3.1.3.2.2 Accelerated approvals
      • 3.1.3.2.3 Drug manufacturers initiating programs to increase the market access of COVID-19 drugs
      • 3.1.3.2.4 Historic examples (SARS, MERS, EBOLA, and H1N1)
      • 3.1.3.2.5 New strategies
    • 3.1.3.3 Strategies to ramp up production at pandemic level
      • 3.1.3.3.1 Establishing stable supply chains to ramp up production of drugs
      • 3.1.3.3.2 Creating external manufacturing networks
  • 3.1.4 COVID-19 DRUGS MARKET ESTIMATION
    • 3.1.4.1 Epidemiology model (assumption basis)
    • 3.1.4.2 COVID-19 drugs market (optimistic, realistic, & pessimistic scenarios)
      • 3.1.4.2.1 Market size estimation for optimistic scenario
      • 3.1.4.2.2 Market size estimation for realistic scenario
      • 3.1.4.2.3 Market size estimation for pessimistic scenario