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将来の暖房:地域エネルギー向け世界のホットスポットの特定

Heating for the Future: Identifying Global Hotspots for District Energy

発行 Lux Research 商品コード 307577
出版日 ページ情報 英文
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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将来の暖房:地域エネルギー向け世界のホットスポットの特定 Heating for the Future: Identifying Global Hotspots for District Energy
出版日: 2014年06月23日 ページ情報: 英文
概要

建物は世界の一次エネルギーの約40%を消費しており、そのうち約40%は暖房、冷房および室内環境の調節に用いられています。これまで建物は石油、天然ガス、電気そして時には石炭を燃料にしてきましたが、地域暖房・冷房(DHC)ネットワークを用いて、建物からエネルギー源を切り離す機会が存在します。これらのネットワークは複数の燃料を活用することが出来、高い変換効率を達成し、より信頼できる暖房・冷房の供給を提供します。

当レポートでは、地域暖房に実績のある6つの代替熱発熱手段を特定し、米国本土、欧州27カ国および東アジアにわたる経済的な実行可能性を評価しており、運用の総コストで測定された実績、商業、住宅および集合住宅に注目した分析などをまとめ、お届けいたします。

エグゼクティブサマリー

情勢

  • 中国は地域エネルギー開発の規模でリードし、一方で欧州はエネルギー変換効率でリード;しかし代替技術がさらに高い効率と低い炭素排出量を可能に

分析

  • 分散型暖房と比較して最大74%のコストを削減する地域暖房は勝者として登場するが、最も魅力的な技術は気候と燃料によって異なる

展望

図表

目次

Buildings consume nearly 40% of global primary enegy, of which about 40% is used to heat, cool, and condition the indoor built environment. Traditionally buildings are fuelled by petroleum, natural gas, electricity, and even coal, but an opportunity exists to decouple the energy source from the building, through district heating and cooling (DHC) networks. Fuel agnostic, these networks can leverage multiple fuels, achieve higher converstion efficiencies, and provide a more reliable supply of heating and cooling. DHC has been around for decades, but only deployed at scale in China and Northern Europe. In this report, we identify six proven alternative heat generation methods for district heating, and evaluate their economic viability for across the continental U.S., EU-27, and East Asia. Performance is measured in total cost of operation, and the focus is on commercial, residential, and multi-residential buildings. Among the high-potential regions are the Northeastern U.S., Spain, and Poland, as well as South Korea and several Japanese cities.

Table of Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

LANDSCAPE

China leads in scale of district energy development, while Europe leads in efficiency of energy conversion; but alternative technologies enable greater efficiency and lower carbon output.

ANALYSIS

District heating emerges as a winner, with cost reductions as high as 74% compared with distributed heating, but most attractive technologies differ depending on climate and fuel.

OUTLOOK

ENDNOTES

Table of Figures

  • Figure 1: Graphic Commercial and residential buildings consume 41% of primary energy
  • Figure 2: Graphic Heat supply for buildings is dominated by fossil fuels in the EU-27
  • Figure 3: Graphic Current penetration of district energy in residential building stock - Europe and North America
  • Figure 4: Graphic Campus and MUSH dominate district energy installations in the U.S.
  • Figure 5: Graphic Growth of district heating in China is dramatic (China values estimated for 2005-2012)
  • Figure 6: Graphic DE fuel flexibility allows adoption of new technologies
  • Figure 7: Graphic Load distribution for a typical commercial building is not normally distributed
  • Figure 8: Table CO2 footprint of heating and cooling sources have a wide variance
  • Figure 9: Table Common heat generation sources are still combustion-based
  • Figure 10: Graphic District heating system is de-coupled from the buildings it serves
  • Figure 11: Graphic Customers are absent from the value chain of district energy equipment procurement
  • Figure 12: Graphic Heating and cooling demand comparison - U.S./Europe/Asia
  • Figure 13: Table Building types well-suited to DE
  • Figure 14: Table Climate zones indicate commercial building peak heating load
  • Figure 15: Table DH heat generation cost comparison (excluding fuel costs)
  • Figure 16: Table DE network connection cost comparison
  • Figure 17: Graphic TCO grows with an increase in distribution losses for DH technologies - residential scenario, Sweden
  • Figure 18: Graphic TCO ranges across all geographies - commercial building
  • Figure 19: Table DE suitability scoring - category weightings
  • Figure 20: Graphic Global DE suitability - All Technologies
  • Figure 21: Table Most Attractive DH Regions - EU
  • Figure 22: Table Most Attractive DH Regions - APAC
  • Figure 23: Graphic U.S. DE suitability - All Technologies
  • Figure 24: Table Most Attractive DH Regions - U.S.
  • Figure 25: Graphic Cost savings potential of district heating technologies
  • Figure 26: Graphic TCO (20-year) Comparison across building types - Sapporo, Japan
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