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安価な天然ガス:ソーラーの将来の夢は?

Cheap Natural Gas: Fracturing Dreams of a Solar Future?

発行 Lux Research 商品コード 289766
出版日 ページ情報 英文 30 Pages
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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安価な天然ガス:ソーラーの将来の夢は? Cheap Natural Gas: Fracturing Dreams of a Solar Future?
出版日: 2013年10月16日 ページ情報: 英文 30 Pages
概要

当レポートでは、LCOE(均等化発電原価)分析に基づき、ソーラーと天然ガスの競争力について検証して、概略以下の構成でお届けいたします。

エグゼクティブサマリー

情勢

  • 世界のエネルギー需要が急増し、天然ガスが注目を集める
  • 安価な天然ガスは、ソーラーの仲間か敵か?
  • 結論

分析

  • 天然ガスは、再生可能エネルギーの普及率を増加させる
  • ソーラーは、すべての地域でLCOEが競合、高いガス価格のシナリオ
  • ハイブリッド技術は無効電力ソリューションに勝る、スタンドアロンPVの橋渡しになる
  • 助成金を支給されていないソーラーの前途に、光がある

見通し

Lux Researchについて

脚注

目次
Product Code: LRSSI-R-13-3

Hydraulic fracturing in the U.S. has shown that cheap, abundant natural gas can be a reality worldwide, with significant shale reserves on every inhabited continent. While government subsidies currently insulate solar from competition from gas, cheap gas could end the dream of unsubsidized grid parity and force solar to the fringes as subsidies expire. Using a detailed levelized cost of energy (LCOE) analysis, we found solar becomes competitive with gas in all 10 regions analyzed by 2025 in the most likely gas price scenario. Solar costs fall faster than gas prices even in gas-rich regions, as increasing domestic demand and liquid natural gas (LNG) exports counter significant shale development. Solar's eventual cost-competitiveness means increased gas penetration actually benefits it, by enabling hybrid gas/solar technologies that can accelerate solar adoption without subsidies and increasing intermittent renewable penetration without expensive energy storage or infrastructure improvements.

Table of Contents

  • Executive Summary
      • Solar Becomes Competitive in Every Major Market in the Most Likely Gas Price Scenario
  • Landscape
    • World Energy Demand Is Growing Fast, and Natural Gas Takes Center Stage
      • The U.S. has Shown How Disruptive Hydraulic Fracturing and Shale Gas Can Be for Electricity Markets
      • International Shale Reserves Will Enable Other Countries to Follow in the U.S.'s Footsteps
      • Globally, Natural Gas Production Will Grow: The Only Questions Are How Much and How Fast?
    • Is Cheap Natural Gas Solar's Friend or Foe?
      • Foe: Cheap Natural Gas Raises the Bar (Lowers the LCOE) for Solar Competition
      • Friend: Natural Gas Can Also Help Solar Adoption, both on the Microeconomic and Macroeconomic Level
      • If Cheap Natural Gas Penetrates the Global Market, Solar may Never be Competitive without Subsidies
    • Landscape Conclusions
  • Analysis
    • Natural Gas Can Increase Renewable Penetration if Utilities Have a Need
    • Solar Reaches Competitive LCOEs in all Regions in Likely and High Gas Price Scenarios
      • Methodology
      • Low Gas Price Scenario: Gas Retains the Advantage over Utility-Scale Solar in N. America, Africa, and ANZ
      • Likely Gas Price Scenario: Utility-Scale Solar Becomes Competitive with Gas in Every Major Market
      • High Gas Price Scenario: Utility-Scale Solar Has the Edge the World Over
    • Hybrid Technologies Win Reactive Power Solutions and Can Be a Bridge to Standalone PV
    • There Is Light at the End of the Tunnel for Unsubsidized Solar
  • Outlook
  • About Lux Research
  • Endnotes
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